ESPN the brand is highly recognizable -- so to the dismay of a lot this means ESPN is not going away. At worst they would go back to the smaller but profitable "so can Roy Munson pick up the 7 - 10 split?". However, ESPN's financial model is kaput and their preeminence is significantly and likely irreversibly diminishing. And as far as ESPN the business either they are paralyzed by the elitism bubble causing incompetence (see: Goodell, Roger) or they have no answer. Their model has been withering on the vine for 2 years, it has been so obvious even Ron Borges could piece it together, yet they appear to have no solution.
ESPN acted like a spoiled rotten high school kid getting his/her first credit card from mommy and daddy. 3 billion for NBA and NFL for a sub paid cable station? It's semi reminiscent of of the dot com bubble of 2000 with ESPN, sorta, the Worldcom or Global Crossing of its era. Disregard COB in favor just getting as many subscriber/customers at any cost.
IMHO the NFL and ESPN declines from a business standpoint are not connected. The NFL may be a blip. They could see viewership return and stabilize. They still have a product that is partly OTA. Bottom line: what is happening this year has too little data points to know if it's an irreversible trend. Further, the NFL itself could do a lot to improve the on field product that has a tangible chance to attract/maintain a tangible slice of viewers they may be losing right now. Additionally, the NFL's ratings were so extremely lofty to begin with that even a 25% drop still leaves them high above everyone else. OTOH ESPN's model was much less about viewership and content, and soooo much to do with growing the captive sub audience (gee that was never going to change/get interrupted because of this Internet thingy!). Consider this, ESPN could mimic the networks, create and put on shows as successful as The Big Bang Theory and some popular dopey singing/dancing competition, yet even that will see them continue to head precipitously downward. Their model was just so dependent on captives, a model that's over - it's kaput. ESPN now must make their content appeal to a wider audience, significantly up the amount of people who want to watch ESPN shows, rebalance the business plan with a newer and greater emphasis on getting 18-49 year olds to watch their shows especially between 8-11pm to maximize ad revenue, and accept the glory days of 100 million captive subs paying 7$ a month to (over)pay for sporting contracts with the ultimate in sports viewership NFL and penultimate NBA (both of these leagues are viewership titans but both are susceptible to an array of 'things' that can cause viewership to significantly fluctuate).
