Elephant in the Room -- Tom Brady's Mental block in big games

[DarrylStingley]

Not really G.O.A.T stats are they. In Disney sports movies, the G.O.A.Ts elevate their teams with unparalleled performances, not with Sanchezian mediocrity.

The competition IS better but this little trend is why I don't get involved with Tom as GOAT. Tom is GREAT. One of the best ever. But you can't be the GOAT and have that group of stats.

It's interesting that the other potential GOAT of this generation -- Peyton -- is also prone to smaller performances in bigger games.

I hate that Tom has reduced somewhat to his playoff level. It was so enjoyable in Tom's earlier career that he was better in the playoffs and didn't quite have Peyton's regular season numbers.

Sigh.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

What's the excuse? Excuse for what? Your premise that the Pats are supposed to win the SB each and every year? Come back to reality. The team wasn't good enough to win this year. We'll see about next year.

Cmon man, the patriots almost beat the ravens in the regular season in a 30 point effort yet couldn't score a single point in the second half against the ravens in the playoffs? Something is wrong with this team and people here have a thousand excuses for another playoff failure.

 

[dm44]

Like all sports, Football is very much a mental game.


Patriots offense has been huge in the regular season since 2007. But not so good in post-season.

I was looking at patriots.com video section and Brady post-game interviews before the Ravens this year. He keeps saying "its going to be a close game" and "Its going to come right down to the end". We ended up only scoring 13 points. Far below our average on the year, and the least points we scored all year.

It was a self-fulfilling prophecy. The body achieves what the mind believes (to a certain extent).

Brady wasn't his usual fiery self. He wasn't being a vocal leader. He wasn't pacing around the sidelines, yelling at team mates like he does in regular-season. He gets a different look in these big games. He's shrinking under the spotlight.


Even when we beat the Ravens in last years AFCCG, Brady played terrible. The defense really won that game for New England.

In last years SB, Brady played poorly as well. He panicked and hurt the team by taking a Safety in the end zone. He tossed up a bad INT to Chase Blackburn of all people. And New England failed to put up 20 points again.



It started in 2007. When all the talk of "best QB ever" and "best team ever" began. The pressure was too much for Brady. Now every year when the playoffs roll around and the Pats stomp someone, the media goes on about the Pats elusive 4th ring, and Brady crumbles.


Bash me all you want. ***** about the defense all you want. We have most of our money tied up in Brady, OLine, and Tight Ends. It's THEM who should be winning us games, not the defense. It's the offense who is failing to show up in big games, not the defense. I really really want BB and Brady to get one more ring. But I don't think we get another Superbowl win unless Brady sorts this crap out.


BTW - This should've been "the year" for New England. The stars aligned perfectly. We got a 1st rd Bye after it looked unlikely. We got Home Field throughout after it looked unlikely. The defense played well against BMore, forcing 3 and outs and holding up until the middle of the 3rd qtr. Our offense put up 0 points in the entire second half.

Deny it all you want. Brady choked.... again.

Brady DID NOTplay poorly in last years' super bowl. What a pile of *****.
He started nearly every drive inside his 10, ran a textbook 97 yard drive for a td pass at the end of the half, set super bowl record for consecutive completetions in a game, and had Deion Branch and Chad OchiCinco as his outside receivers and a hobbled Gronk.

You are NUTS. If welker doesn't drop the ball he is the MVP of the game.
HE WAS 20-24 FOR 2TDS at one point. He was ballin.

 

[The_Riddler]

Jets were a 9 point dog. You are delusional if you think they were any more of a quality team than Houston.

That Jets team almost went to the Superbowl, that was a solid football team. That 9-point number was inflated after our 45-3 trouncing, it never, ever should have been that high, but that's Vegas for ya. Just like the 9.5 opening number of this year's Ravens/Pats game had no business at all being 9.5 but it was.

This Houston team was stumbling into the playoffs losing the one-seed and losing that last game to the Colts when the Colts didn't even need the game explained everything about what that Houston team was about. They sucked down the stretch, they were no where near that Jets team in 2010.

 

[borg]

It is a disturbing collection of statistics, that's for sure. In those last six AFCCGs/SBs, the Pats are 2-4, the offense has woefully underperformed, and Brady has been, frankly, very subpar.

Not a good trend. Let's hope he and the team reverse that trend next year!!

Lets not ignore the talent NE has surrounded him with. Top picks on the line, big $$$ in the pass catching dept. All designed to keep Brady upright and accurate, especially when you factor in the nature of their passing attack....short pass/high percentage. The offense is built for Brady to flourish.....yet......

I'm on record as saying this small ball offense is their own worst enemy. NE has minimized the field of play with their personnel packages, and capable DLs force NE to become one dimensional. Knowing its pass and knowing the depth limits of the aerial attack is a huge advantage for defenses.

 

[BSR]

Cmon man, the patriots almost beat the ravens in the regular season in a 30 point effort yet couldn't score a single point in the second half against the ravens in the playoffs? Something is wrong with this team and people here have a thousand excuses for another playoff failure.

Exactly...there is something wrong with them. They are a flawed team. On top of that they didn't execute. How is that an excuse?

 

[BSR]

Lets not ignore the talent NE has surrounded him with. Top picks on the line, big $$$ in the pass catching dept. All designed to keep Brady upright and accurate, especially when you factor in the nature of their passing attack....short pass/high percentage. The offense is built for Brady to flourish.....yet......

I'm on record as saying this small ball offense is their own worst enemy. NE has minimized the field of play with their personnel packages, and capable DLs force NE to become one dimensional. Knowing its pass and knowing the depth limits of the aerial attack is a huge advantage for defenses.

Who had more talent surrounding them? Brady or Flacco? Who had the better D? Now lets see how the real homer is...

 

[olschool]

Yet it's up to the QB and coaching staff to find a way to win against these tough defenses. If they can't do it then they are overrated. Heck the redskins found a way to beat the ravens with a rookie QB, why can't the patriots? What's the excuse next year when the pats face another tough defense in the playoffs? The pats can't beat either the giants or ravens who have knocked them out 4 out of the past 6 years - if the team can't adjust and find ways to beat them a second time around then there is a major problem.

I agree, it is up to the players and coaches to figure it out, and yes there is a major problem.

Next season, I want them to beat the Saints 17-14, the Steelers 12-9, the Ravens 21-20, the Texans 16-14, the Falcons 10-7, the Broncos 10-0, and the Bengals 13-3. Plus, I'd like to see at least one shutout against their division rivals, especially the Jets.

Then I'll have some confidence going into the playoffs, that they can win tight, low scoring defensive battles against good teams.

And, more importantly it would give THEM the confidence that the defense is up to the job.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This seems to be a good place to post this:

Bye, bye Brady? » Merrimack Valley » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA

Approval of the message should not be implied by the mere posting of it. Just setting off the firework.

Hector Longo, Ron Borges' and Herve Villechaise's illigitimate agenda driven love child. Haven't seen any of his garbage linked in so long I assumed he was out of work or relegated to HS coverage.

Football Friday VIDEO: Hector Longo and David Willis

 

[Deus Irae]

This is your answer ? I win.

If it were a "clown of the thread" contest, you'd win. Since this is a discussion about your "BIG GAME" theory, you got your ass handed to you on a platter.

Jets game = Texans game = Broncos game

Playoff game = BIG GAME

Simple stuff, yet still too much for you to admit, apparently. Again, the irony...

 

[BSR]

That Jets team almost went to the Superbowl, that was a solid football team. That 9-point number was inflated after our 45-3 trouncing, it never, ever should have been that high, but that's Vegas for ya. Just like the 9.5 opening number of this year's Ravens/Pats game had no business at all being 9.5 but it was.

This Houston team was stumbling into the playoffs losing the one-seed and losing that last game to the Colts when the Colts didn't even need the game explained everything about what that Houston team was about. They sucked down the stretch, they were no where near that Jets team in 2010.

Are you insane? That Jets team had Mark ButtFumble Sanchez as their quarterback. And you are using a circular argument in trying to show they are a good team.

Your argument : The Patriots only beat bad teams and lost to good teams.

Me: How do you know that the Jets were good and Houston was bad?

Your argument: Because the Patriots lost to the Jets and beat Houston.

Its nonsensical.

 

[condon84]

Brady sets ridiculous standards for himself in the regular season that he just can't consistently meet in the playoffs. Who's fault is that?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Here's my prescription for TFB corrective action.
1. Mentally do not approach the game as if you're carrying the team and your legacy. You've worked hard and done your preparation so just play the game and enjoy it like early in your career when you took a nap on the locker room bench before the 2001 season SuperBowl.
2. Practice week when you review the game plan with BB et. al. make sure that your fast guys like Vereen have swing & outlet pass play selections available.
3. Do not force the ball to "trusted" receivers. You won SBs throwing to JAG receivers who because of coverage schemes found themselves open. Find & throw to the open man. Its his job to catch it. Let him do his job.
4. If Josh keeps calling deep pass plays that looked great on paper on 3rd down, consider checking down to a set of options with high % of success. They'll be blitzing and you won't have time for Lloyd or whoever deep. They're likely covered anyway.
5. If you run and the clock is an issue, call TO when touched. Do not re-group and waste 15 additional seconds lining up to spike the ball. On 2nd thought, look at the Seattle game as well. The once efficient usage of time offense has lost that ability. You can easily fix this.

Congrats on your next ring!

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady sets ridiculous standards for himself in the regular season that he just can't consistently meet in the playoffs. Who's fault is that?

I think it's fair to question Brady's consistency in recent playoff seasons. I don't think it's fair to claim that he's choking in BIG GAMES while picking and choosing which playoff games are BIG.

You're a resident contrarian, so your position on that would be interesting.

 

[mb6592]

Jets were a 9 point dog. You are delusional if you think they were any more of a quality team than Houston.

So were the Ravens

 

[condon84]

I think it's fair to question Brady's consistency in recent playoff seasons. I don't think it's fair to claim that he's choking in BIG GAMES while picking and choosing which playoff games are BIG.

You're a resident contrarian, so your position on that would be interesting.

I can understand why fans would say he chokes big games when you look at our recent playoff losses and specifically how he's performed. It's not like we're losing while he's playing and leading his offense to the standard that we're accustomed to. The offense typically has a down performance which leads to other breakdowns by either the defense or STs because there is an even bigger pressure for those units to come through.

On a typical Patriot win, our offense scores 30+ points, while our defense just does enough to secure us the win. On a typical Patriot playoff loss, our offense scores well below it's average, and the defense doesn't do enough to prevent the other team from scoring more than our offense.

In all fairness, Brady has played well in big games. The Houston win 2 weeks ago, the Denver win last year. So it's not like he underperforms in every big game.

Just to throw this in, IMO, I think our biggest issue is that oftentimes our OC (McD or BOB) just can't get a handle on the pulse of the game. Charlie, as much criticism as he got, always had a good sense of what our offense needed to do in key situations in the biggest of games.

 

[mb6592]

I can understand why fans would say he chokes big games when you look at our recent playoff losses and specifically how he's performed. It's not like we're losing while he's playing and leading his offense to the standard that we're accustomed to. The offense typically has a down performance which leads to other breakdowns by either the defense or STs because there is an even bigger pressure for those units to come through.

On a typical Patriot win, our offense scores 30+ points, while our defense just does enough to secure us the win. On a typical Patriot playoff loss, our offense scores well below it's average, and the defense doesn't do enough to prevent the other team from scoring more than our offense.

In all fairness, Brady has played well in big games. The Houston win 2 weeks ago, the Denver win last year. So it's not like he underperforms in every big game.

Just to throw this in, IMO, I think our biggest issue is that oftentimes our OC (McD or BOB) just can't get a handle on the pulse of the game. Charlie, as much criticism as he got, always had a good sense of what our offense needed to do in key situations in the biggest of games.

Don't get involved in the word game - choked, underperformed - who gives a sh-t, the offense has not carried the day in the playoffs as it has during the last 5 regular seasons or so.

 

[The_Riddler]

Are you insane? That Jets team had Mark ButtFumble Sanchez as their quarterback. And you are using a circular argument in trying to show they are a good team.

Your argument : The Patriots only beat bad teams and lost to good teams.

Me: How do you know that the Jets were good and Houston was bad?

Your argument: Because the Patriots lost to the Jets and beat Houston.

Its nonsensical.

Yup, old Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez allright, here's how the sucky Mark Sanchez performed in that game against All World Tom Brady, read it and weep you stupid SOB.

Mark Sanchez (Rating 127.3)

Att Cmp Yds Avg TD Int Lg Sack Loss Rating
25 16 194 7.76 3 0 58 0 0 127.3

Tom Brady (Rating 89.0)

Att Cmp Yds Avg TD Int Lg Sack Loss Rating
45 29 299 6.64 2 1 37 5 40 89.0

 

[condon84]

Yup, old Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez allright, here's how the sucky Mark Sanchez performed in that game against All World Tom Brady, read it and weep you stupid SOB.

Mark Sanchez (Rating 127.3)

Att Cmp Yds Avg TD Int Lg Sack Loss Rating
25 16 194 7.76 3 0 58 0 0 127.3

Tom Brady (Rating 89.0)

Att Cmp Yds Avg TD Int Lg Sack Loss Rating
45 29 299 6.64 2 1 37 5 40 89.0

This is a stupid comparison. Brady is playing against the Jets defense while Sanchez is playing against the Pats defense.

 

[ivanvamp]

The competition IS better but this little trend is why I don't get involved with Tom as GOAT. Tom is GREAT. One of the best ever. But you can't be the GOAT and have that group of stats.

It's interesting that the other potential GOAT of this generation -- Peyton -- is also prone to smaller performances in bigger games.

I hate that Tom has reduced somewhat to his playoff level. It was so enjoyable in Tom's earlier career that he was better in the playoffs and didn't quite have Peyton's regular season numbers.

Sigh.

I think, to be honest, that this is a bit of the "legend of Tom Brady" seeping in here. Because his actual numbers aren't nearly as good as we want to remember them being.

Tom Brady Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

In his first three playoff seasons, the Pats went 9-0 (ah, those were the days!). Here is Brady's cumulative stat line for those 9 games:

TOT: 190-304, 62.5%, 1951 yds, 11 td, 3 int, 88.9 rating
AVG: 21.1-33.8, 62.5%, 216.8 yds, 1.2 td, 0.3 int, 88.9 rating

Now here's his cumulative stat line for the 15 games in his non-SB-winning seasons:

TOT: 363-583, 62.3%, 3998 yds, 31 td, 19 int, 86.7 rating
AVG: 24.2-38.9, 62.3%, 266.5 yds, 2.1 td, 1.3 int, 86.7 rating

So in the 9 games in those SB-winning playoff seasons, his QB rating was 88.9. In the 15 games in the non-SB-winning playoff seasons, his QB rating was 86.7. Hardly any difference at all.

In the non-SB-winning seasons, Brady has thrown for more yards per game and more TDs. He has also thrown more interceptions, which alone accounts for the dropoff in QB rating.

Long story shorter, it is a myth that Tom Brady was this unbelievable playoff performer back in the day, while now he's struggling. He's just about the same quarterback. The offense since 2004 has involved a lot more passing (5 attempts a game is a lot - it translates to 80 more a year over 16 games...that's a big difference), which naturally leads to more yards, tds, and ints. But the completion percentage is virtually identical, as is the QB rating.

In fact, consider this. Let's take a QB rating of 100+ as being excellent. Here are the number of 100+ rating games Brady has had during his SB-winning years and during the non-SB-winning years (again, just talking playoffs):

2001-04 - 9 total games, 3 games of 100+ rating (33.3% of the time)
2005-12 - 15 total games, 5 games of 100+ rating (33.3% of the time)

Let's say a rating of less than 78 as being poor. Here are the number of -80.0 rating games Brady has had:

2001-04 - 9 total games, 3 games of -78.0 rating (33.3%)
2005-12 - 15 total games, 6 games of -78.0 rating (40.0%)

So the number of in-between games, representing a so-so performance, would be a rating between 78.0 and 99.9. Here's how Brady did there:

2001-04 - 9 total games, 3 games of 78-99.9 rating (33.3%)
2005-12 - 15 total games, 4 games of 78-99.9 rating (26.7%)

Brady is pretty much the same exact guy he's always been. The results have been different, unfortunately. But remember: this team won three SBs by a field goal apiece. A play or two here or there and those outcomes are different. And they lost two SBs by a combined 7 points. A play here or there and those outcomes are different. The modern Brady could easily have won 2 SBs, and the old Brady could easily have lost 3.