Easley signed

[mayoclinic]

I agree. I see the potential* for him to be a poor man's Dontari Poe.

*Dangerous word, I know.

More like "Poe-tential" in this case, I think.

 

[SmellsLikeGrundle]

Easley is obviously not a classical 2-gap DT. But, in defense of Brother Grundle, at least one media analyst has suggested that his game is not limited to a strictly 1-gap approach:

http://nfl.si.com/2014/06/06/break-it-down-dominique-easley-could-redefine-new-englands-defensive-fronts/

Again, I'm not suggesting that Easley be used as a gap control DT. That's obviously not his game. But I'm not sure that he is "exclusively a one gapping rusher".

[/QUOTE]


Yeah that was pretty much my point. Imo the word "exclusive" and Easley don't seem to go together. Like you pointed out, Bill loves his versatility.

 

[Deus Irae]

More like "Poe-tential" in this case, I think.

My man-crush for Poe in that draft was probably borderline obsessive, but I think he's proven to have been worthy. That's a trade I really wish BB had made.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Five-star thread. Thanks all. (I'm assuming that there's no way to give the thread stars on the new board, not that I've just been too dumb not to find it.)

 

[SmellsLikeGrundle]

My man-crush for Poe in that draft was probably borderline obsessive, but I think he's proven to have been worthy. That's a trade I really wish BB had made.

I'm a fan of him as well. Speaking strictly as a football fan I'm glad he seems to be putting it all together. It's fun to watch him play. Great athletic ability for a guy his size. Reminds me a little bit a Haloti Ngata in that sense. Bill would love him.

 

[mayoclinic]

My man-crush for Poe in that draft was probably borderline obsessive, but I think he's proven to have been worthy. That's a trade I really wish BB had made.

I'm a fan of him as well. Speaking strictly as a football fan I'm glad he seems to be putting it all together. It's fun to watch him play. Great athletic ability for a guy his size. Reminds me a little bit a Haloti Ngata in that sense. Bill would love him.

I had Poe mocked to the Pats in my original 2012 mock from October 2011. He was a freakish talent - in that sense, definitely Ngata-esque (one of my favorite defensive players of the past decade). I had hoped he might slip to the 20's and be within trade up range, but it would have taken a ton to move ahead of KC at #11. I agree that he was worthy. McCullers is nowhere near that athletic or explosive, though he's big as a house.

 

[DarrylS]

I like the way our defense is being transformed from what seems to have been an afterthought to a focus... the speed and versatility of lots of moving parts will be the new hallmark. We will be labelled as unpredictable...

 

[Deus Irae]

I like the way our defense is being transformed from what seems to have been an afterthought to a focus... the speed and versatility of lots of moving parts will be the new hallmark. We will be labelled as unpredictable...

It's not that it was an afterthought. It's that the team drafted lousy on defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's not that it was an afterthought. It's that the team drafted lousy on defense.

It's odd that there was a stretch of such really lousy drafting, especially on defense. Other than Mayo, from 2006-2009 the team really didn't do very well. There will always be misses, but the track record over that period was really abysmal.

 

[patchick]

It's odd that there was a stretch of such really lousy drafting, especially on defense. Other than Mayo, from 2006-2009 the team really didn't do very well. There will always be misses, but the track record over that period was really abysmal.

It really stands out as a bleak patch. Hard to know whether that's just random variation, or whether Pioli leaving was a blessing in disguise.

On the flip side, given that they went into the 2013 draft with the scantest collection of picks in memory, early returns on the 2013 class are very good indeed. From the yield of...

Collins, Dobson, Ryan, Harmon, Boyce, Buchanan, Beauharnais

...it's easy to forget that they only held picks 29, 59, 91, 226, & 235.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's odd that there was a stretch of such really lousy drafting, especially on defense. Other than Mayo, from 2006-2009 the team really didn't do very well. There will always be misses, but the track record over that period was really abysmal.

I highlighted it in a thread in the draft forum where I got jumped on for suggesting that the team shot themselves in the foot with the terrible drafts on that side of the ball over that time period. In chronological order from miss to meh to hit...

1. Jeremy Mincey - Miss
2. LeKevin Smith - Miss
3. Willie Andrews - Miss
4. Brandon Meriweather - Meh
5. Kareem Brown - Miss
6. Justin Rogers - Miss
7. Mike Richardson - Miss
8. Oscar Lua - Miss

** In fairness, these were two of the worst drafts of the Belichick era.

9. Jerod Mayo - Hit
10. Terrence Wheatley - Miss
11. Shawn Crable - Miss
12. Jonathan Wilhite - Miss
13. Matthew Slater - Hit*
14. Bo Ruud - Miss

*Slater is a hit because of his special teams contributions.

15. Patrick Chung - Meh (generous)
16. Ron Brace - Miss
17. Darius Butler - Miss
18. Tyrone McKenzie - Miss
19. Myron Pryor - Meh
20. Darryl Richard - Miss

So, in all, the Pats used 20 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball between 2006-2009. Two were hits. One of those hits is because of his contributions on special teams one is a mega hit. Three were meh and you could really argue that one of those is a miss. A whopping 15 were misses. And before people try to make the "can you really count a 7th round pick as a miss?" argument, we praise Belichick for his ability to find diamonds in the rough late in the draft and through UDFA. Similarly, we should count those that he whiffed on as misses. Looking at those drafts, it's really not a surprise that it took so long to rebuild the defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

It really stands out as a bleak patch. Hard to know whether that's just random variation, or whether Pioli leaving was a blessing in disguise.

Pioli leaving didn't help the 2009 draft class. Pat Chung, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Tyrone McKenzie - 3 top 41 picks and 4 top 100 picks, and not a single clear hit out of the bunch.

On the flip side, given that they went into the 2013 draft with the scantest collection of picks in memory, early returns on the 2013 class are very good indeed. From the yield of...

Collins, Dobson, Ryan, Harmon, Boyce, Buchanan, Beauharnais

...it's easy to forget that they only held picks 29, 59, 91, 226, & 235.

I can think of a number of potential reasons for poor drafting, especially on defense, including:

1. BB and SP not being on the same page.

2. Turnover in the scouting department and poor player identification.

3. Slowness to adapt to the changing rules and the domination of pass-oriented offenses.

4. Inconsistency of vision and defensive philosophy.

5. Poor draft classes, especially in the later rounds.

6. Bad luck / random variation.

There are probably others. I have no idea to what extent these contributed, but the failure rate during that period is striking, especially compared to the track record both before and after. We'll never know for certain, but I personally suspect that we would have 1-2 more SB trophies if we had drafted a bit more effectively during that period.

Conversely, the defensive drafting since 2012 seems brilliant. Obviously, it's too early to evaluate Easley and Zach Moore. But Chandler Jones, Alfonzo Dennard, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon look really, really good. Dont'a Hightower is still a bit of a question-mark for me - a good player without a doubt, but I'm still not sure he was worth the trade-up, or better than some of the players that we passed up (Harrison Smith and Lavonte David, among others).

 

[patfanken]

Before we drift further into a discussion of "why I, should be the GM" we should remember that the critical phrase in this discussion is "position flexibility", not "my binky is better than yours" . Why? Because I think its going to be a key element in the success of any defense vs the rapid firing, sophisticated offenses that exist today. We should start to fact the fact, that when executed properly NO defense can stop these offenses 3 plays in a row on a consistent basis.

So with that in mind, what's a defense to do? Since its so hard to stop these offenses with mere physical match ups, it becomes more and more a necessity to force them to simply F up. Make them make mistakes and require them to slow down the tempo. The best way to do this is to disguise and confuse.

This is why NOT declaring a FS/SS is important to the Pats. Its why Easly's ability to play all over the DL is such an advantage. When a team is running a fast no huddle, its to its advantage when they KNOW where everybody is going to be lined up. When you have the ability to align the likes of Easly Hightower and Collins almost anywhere throughout the front seven, and don't give away how you are playing in the secondary, you create questions and hesitation among the OL and QB. There is nothing more comforting to an OLman, to trot to the LOS and find the guy he expects to block exactly where he's supposed to be.

The ability to disguise and confuse the offense is what's necessary to get offenses make the mistakes that will allow the defense to create enough stops to get to 4th down. In other words you have to do what's necessary to make the offense stop itself, because given the way offenses are being designed, the slanted rules, and the increased skill sets of players playing it; defenses simply can't do it by themselves

Its probably not something we will notice much during TC, but once the season starts it will be very interesting to see how often the Pats line up in the same alignment

 

[Kontradiction]

We'll never know for certain, but I personally suspect that we would have 1-2 more SB trophies if we had drafted a bit more effectively during that period.

2010 and 2011 would have been Super Bowl winning seasons with better drafting on defense. Not sure about 2009 since that offense was a one trick pony and one of the biggest contributors to that one trick blew his knee out in the final week of the season.

 

[mayoclinic]

I highlighted it in a thread in the draft forum where I got jumped on for suggesting that the team shot themselves in the foot with the terrible drafts on that side of the ball over that time period. In chronological order from miss to meh to hit...

1. Jeremy Mincey - Miss
2. LeKevin Smith - Miss
3. Willie Andrews - Miss
4. Brandon Meriweather - Meh
5. Kareem Brown - Miss
6. Justin Rogers - Miss
7. Mike Richardson - Miss
8. Oscar Lua - Miss

** In fairness, these were two of the worst drafts of the Belichick era.

9. Jerod Mayo - Hit
10. Terrence Wheatley - Miss
11. Shawn Crable - Miss
12. Jonathan Wilhite - Miss
13. Matthew Slater - Hit*
14. Bo Ruud - Miss

*Slater is a hit because of his special teams contributions.

15. Patrick Chung - Meh (generous)
16. Ron Brace - Miss
17. Darius Butler - Miss
18. Tyrone McKenzie - Miss
19. Myron Pryor - Meh
20. Darryl Richard - Miss

So, in all, the Pats used 20 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball between 2006-2009. Two were hits. One of those hits is because of his contributions on special teams one is a mega hit. Three were meh and you could really argue that one of those is a miss. A whopping 15 were misses. And before people try to make the "can you really count a 7th round pick as a miss?" argument, we praise Belichick for his ability to find diamonds in the rough late in the draft and through UDFA. Similarly, we should count those that he whiffed on as misses. Looking at those drafts, it's really not a surprise that it took so long to rebuild the defense.

1 hit out of 20 picks is a 5% success rate. Not enough. During that period the Pats missed out on (among others):

- LB Jon Beason (2007, #25)
- S Eric Weddle (2007, #37)
- DE/LB LaMarr Woodley (2007, #46)
- S Dashon Goldson (2007, #126)
- DT Terrell Thomas (2008, #63)
- DE Cliff Avril (2008, #92)
- LB James Laurinaitis (2009, #35)
- S Jarius Byrd (2009, #42)
- DE/LB Connor Barwin (2009, #46)
- S William Moore (2009, #55)
- CB/S Sean Smith (2009, #61)
- DE Michael Johnson (2009, #70)
- DT Terrance Knighton (2009, #72)
- CB Keenan Lewis (2009, #96)
- DT Henry Melton (2009, #105)
- S Glover Quin (2009, #112)
- S Chris Clemons (2009, #165)

Any of those players would have been a major upgrade. With just a 25% success rate (4 more hits in addition to Mayo, out of 20 picks) the Pats might have significantly upgraded their defensive roster. Imagine what Michael Johnson, Terrance Knighton, Sean Smith and Eric Weddle would have done, for example - all guys who were very reasonable possibilities at the time.

No crying over spilt milk, but definitely some missed opportunities. We should certainly be grateful that the FO seems to have gotten back on track.

 

[dales804]

I highlighted it in a thread in the draft forum where I got jumped on for suggesting that the team shot themselves in the foot with the terrible drafts on that side of the ball over that time period. In chronological order from miss to meh to hit...

1. Jeremy Mincey - Miss
2. LeKevin Smith - Miss
3. Willie Andrews - Miss
4. Brandon Meriweather - Meh
5. Kareem Brown - Miss
6. Justin Rogers - Miss
7. Mike Richardson - Miss
8. Oscar Lua - Miss

** In fairness, these were two of the worst drafts of the Belichick era.

9. Jerod Mayo - Hit
10. Terrence Wheatley - Miss
11. Shawn Crable - Miss
12. Jonathan Wilhite - Miss
13. Matthew Slater - Hit*
14. Bo Ruud - Miss

*Slater is a hit because of his special teams contributions.

15. Patrick Chung - Meh (generous)
16. Ron Brace - Miss
17. Darius Butler - Miss
18. Tyrone McKenzie - Miss
19. Myron Pryor - Meh
20. Darryl Richard - Miss

So, in all, the Pats used 20 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball between 2006-2009. Two were hits. One of those hits is because of his contributions on special teams one is a mega hit. Three were meh and you could really argue that one of those is a miss. A whopping 15 were misses. And before people try to make the "can you really count a 7th round pick as a miss?" argument, we praise Belichick for his ability to find diamonds in the rough late in the draft and through UDFA. Similarly, we should count those that he whiffed on as misses. Looking at those drafts, it's really not a surprise that it took so long to rebuild the defense.

Eek, what a list! Excuse me while I go throw up. Thank God 2010 brought a lot better drafting and it's been good since.

 

[Kontradiction]

Eek, what a list! Excuse me while I go throw up. Thank God 2010 brought a lot better drafting and it's been good since.

It's always funny watching people trying to defend those drafts on that side of the ball. Those were unquestionably bad. The "everybody misses" argument is a laugher. Yeah, everybody misses. But not to the tune of 2 hits (one for his special teams ability) out of 20 tries. That's why it took him so long to rebuild the defense.

 

[patchick]

It's always funny watching people trying to defend those drafts on that side of the ball. Those were unquestionably bad. The "everybody misses" argument is a laugher. Yeah, everybody misses. But not to the tune of 2 hits (one for his special teams ability) out of 20 tries. That's why it took him so long to rebuild the defense.

It was a flat-out dreadful stretch, an awful waste of opportunity, and doubtless keeps Belichick awake at night. And IMO it's exactly the right way to assess drafts, which is in the aggregate: Overall, are you getting good return on your draft capital?

What drives me crazy is the "I knew better" crowd on individual picks. It's simple logic that IF a pick has already proven to be a total dud, then odds are that whoever else you wanted instead will probably have been a better choice! But do you actually assess your total record? (There are posters here who go around shouting Tavon Wilson's name at every opportunity, while conveniently forgetting how much they railed against Sebastian Vollmer, did cartwheels over Darius Butler, and proclaimed the entire 2013 draft class a travesty.)

 

[mayoclinic]

It was a flat-out dreadful stretch, an awful waste of opportunity, and doubtless keeps Belichick awake at night. And IMO it's exactly the right way to assess drafts, which is in the aggregate: Overall, are you getting good return on your draft capital?

What drives me crazy is the "I knew better" crowd on individual picks. It's simple logic that IF a pick has already proven to be a total dud, then odds are that whoever else you wanted instead will probably have been a better choice! But do you actually assess your total record? (There are posters here who go around shouting Tavon Wilson's name at every opportunity, while conveniently forgetting how much they railed against Sebastian Vollmer, did cartwheels over Darius Butler, and proclaimed the entire 2013 draft class a travesty.)

Exactly. In 2009, for example I:

1. Badly wanted Connor Barwin, who has turned out to be a good but not great player. I also liked Robert Ayers more than Clay Matthews. Oops.
2. HATED the Brace pick, along with everyone else, but tried desperately to find a silver lining in it.
3. Preferred William Moore, Sean Smith and Louis Delmas to Pat Chung, but wasn't terribly upset with the pick.
4. Wasn't thrilled with the Darius Butler pick, which was unpopular at the time, as Butler was a board favorite.
5. Had William Beatty rated well ahead of Sebastian Vollmer at OT.
6. Liked Mike Wallace at WR in the 3rd round (good talent eval, but failed to recognize his selfishness and limitations in route running).

Some hits, but some misses. But I think it's fair to say that the FO wasted a bunch of opportunities to improve the defense from 2007-2009. I agree that no one is probably more acutely aware of that than BB. Expecting a perfect return on every pick is unrealistic, but a reasonable return (I used 25% above as a starting point) should be expected.

From 2010-2013 the Pats "hit" on over 40% of their defensive picks, with a "hit" defined as a long term starter or near-starter worthy of a 2nd contract:

1. Devin McCourty (#27 in 2010) = hit
2. Jermaine Cunningham (#53 in 2010) = miss
3. Brandon Spikes (#62 in 2010) = near hit, but not quite
4. Brandon Deaderick (#247 in 2010) = meh
5. Kade Weston (#248 in 2010) = miss
6. Ras-I Dowling (#33 in 2011) = spectacular miss
7. Markell Carter (#194 in 2011) = miss
8. Malcolm Williams (#219 in 2011) = miss
9. Chandler Jones (#21 in 2012) = hit
10. Dont'a Hightower (#25 in 2012) = hit
11. Tavon Wilson (#48 in 2012) = meh/miss (work in progress, but doesn't seem likely to be a hit)
12. Jake Bequette (#93 in 2012) = miss
13. Nate Ebner (#197 in 2012) = hit (for special teams, which was why he was drafted)
14. Alfonzo Dennard (#224 in 2012) = hit (spectacular given how late he was drafted)
15. Jamie Collins (#52 in 2013) = hit
16. Logan Ryan (#83 in 2013) = hit
17. Duron Harmon (#92 in 2013) = apparent hit, if he seizes the starting S job opposite McCourty
18. Michael Buchanan (#226 in 2013) = meh, with the potential for more
19. Steve Beauharnais (#235 in 2013) = meh/miss (work in progress)

That's 8 hits out of 19 picks (assuming Harmon, and not counting Spikes as a hit). Also, over 40% of those defensive picks (8/19) were 6th round or later, which considerably lowers the likelihood of a hit. Obviously, more more recent drafts, the jury is still not completely out, but we have a fairly good idea. It's obviously way too early to assess 2014 defensive draftees Dominique Easley (#29 overall), Zach Moore (#198 overall) and Jemea Thomas (#206 overall). But clearly "in the aggregate" there has been a huge difference from the 2007-2009 drafts.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's always funny watching people trying to defend those drafts on that side of the ball. Those were unquestionably bad. The "everybody misses" argument is a laugher. Yeah, everybody misses. But not to the tune of 2 hits (one for his special teams ability) out of 20 tries. That's why it took him so long to rebuild the defense.

It gets even worse when you start looking at the free agent misses (i.e. Springs). They just flat-out did not get it done with defensive for the better part of 4 years.