Don Banks from SI: His sources say Belichick will select Darius Butler

[Rob0729]

And strangely, Holley is generally given the credit for this when he reported the exact same thing as Banks a day later. It was Banks' scoop.

Butler is a classic Pats-style CB: a healthy Wheatley, a more athletic Samuel. It's certainly plausible.

Personally, I forgot Banks wrote this. Holley gets the credit because he is local (and more people probably heard him say it on WEEI than read Banks' column) and everyone knows he has deep ties within the Pats organization giving what he said more creedance eventhough it was the same report.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

That was Banks Mock Draft Version 7.0 which came out on Friday at 11:39AM, the same day Holley had it in his show which begins at 10AM... This week's pick of Butler is from his 2009 6.0 Version which in 2008 he had little right including this:

*PROJECTED TRADE WITH BENGALS* As outlined at No. 7, I've got the Patriots trading down with the Bengals, who couldn't afford to take the chance that New Orleans would make a deal with New England and land Ellis. The Patriots love Rivers and feel the ex-Trojan can play both inside and outside, just the kind of versatility that New England's defense requires. The Patriots would likely have Rivers line up inside, which would allow them to shift Adalius Thomas back outside, which is where his play-making impact has been the greatest.

 

[patchick]

That was Banks Mock Draft Version 7.0 which came out on Friday at 11:39AM, the same day Holley had it in his show which begins at 10AM...

Right, that was the first mock where Banks wrote it, but he started reporting it in interviews the day before, as recorded in this old thread:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...3/81571-pats-prefer-j-mayo-over-k-rivers.html

That doesn't make this one right, of course!

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Butler is not the only UConn player to declare for the draft.

Maybe BB wanted a closer look at Beatty or Brown. And not necessarily for the 1st round either.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a nice read from Pat Kirwan on smokescreens: "Keep in mind that the media and fans are not privy to what teams are really going to do. But teams will use the media to create illusions about their intentions. Most outsiders are driven by team needs to decipher what a team may do in the draft, and that is the groundwork for a smoke screen."

Don't believe the hype ... it could just be a smokescreen

Kirwan's top 3 things to create a smokescreen:

1. Don't visit the guy you really want, visit a few players you have little interest in and send people speculating about your plans.
2. Get a solid young veteran extended a day or two before the draft to end any interest in a player from the same position.
3. Have the head coach go to a pro day or have a late private workout with a candidate.

 

[holyredeemer]

Here's a nice read from Pat Kirwan on smokescreens: "Keep in mind that the media and fans are not privy to what teams are really going to do. But teams will use the media to create illusions about their intentions. Most outsiders are driven by team needs to decipher what a team may do in the draft, and that is the groundwork for a smoke screen."

Don't believe the hype ... it could just be a smokescreen

Kirwan's top 3 things to create a smokescreen:

1. Don't visit the guy you really want, visit a few players you have little interest in and send people speculating about your plans.
2. Get a solid young veteran extended a day or two before the draft to end any interest in a player from the same position.
3. Have the head coach go to a pro day or have a late private workout with a candidate.

It seems to me that all of this would be more for the fans and to generate interest and hype over the draft, instead as being used as a smokescreen for a teams real intentions. I mean, if one teams doing it, odds are every team does it. And, if it's always a smokescreen and not truly leaked information, then I find it hard to believe that any team would fall for these tricks.

 

[mayoclinic]

It seems to me that all of this would be more for the fans and to generate interest and hype over the draft, instead as being used as a smokescreen for a teams real intentions. I mean, if one teams doing it, odds are every team does it. And, if it's always a smokescreen and not truly leaked information, then I find it hard to believe that any team would fall for these tricks.

I doubt teams would fall for the tricks, but it does create confusion and uncertainty. Then again, it appears that the Jets grabbed Gholston at #6 last year at least in part because they were obsessed with the Pats not getting him at #7.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I doubt teams would fall for the tricks, but it does create confusion and uncertainty. Then again, it appears that the Jets grabbed Gholston at #6 last year at least in part because they were obsessed with the Pats not getting him at #7.

I think we all know that BB did the same thing to Indy in the 2006 draft by taking Maphony because he knew the Colts wanted him - The Colts ended up taking Addai which happened to be an important part of thier championship season that year and gave them something Edgerrin James could not - That appears to have not ended up good for us and Addai is a bit of a better or at least more consistent NFL player at this time IMO.

 

[JoeSixPat]

From his latest mock draft:

Percy Harvin goes No. 22 to Minnesota Vikings in NFL Mock Draft - Don Banks - SI.com

Mike Reiss predicted that this was a possibility a few weeks back too. Now the question is whether it is a smoke screen or genuine interest.

I'm not clear on why it would be so "unusual" for the New England Coach to visit a New England College team that has several players that will likely go in the top half of the draft.

Given the fact that there are several players from UConn who will be drafted, wouldn't Belichick be conspicuous had he been absent?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Right, that was the first mock where Banks wrote it, but he started reporting it in interviews the day before, as recorded in this old thread:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...3/81571-pats-prefer-j-mayo-over-k-rivers.html

That doesn't make this one right, of course!

We should watch these two on Friday though...

Last year 1 week before the draft Banks had them liking Rivers better at LB if that was the pick and Holley's assignment was pushing interest in Dorsey and Ellis as trade bait...selective smoke being blown. Often the quid pro quo is the real skinny when it's too late for others to rethink their strategy.

By Thursday night they probably both knew the #1 target on the final draft board and could tout it since no one would believe them...

Of course it's a little harder (variables wise) this year picking in the 20's in a draft with no clear cut top 5 beyond two of the QB's may go just because they are...and similar value available from 10 through the 30 and possibly even a little ways beyond.

PatsTrojans had his sources last season and what he seemed to underscore was there are often multiple voices within the ranks leaning one way or another in the final weeks preceeding the draft based on personal preference. (I think we saw something similar with Gutierrez pre season evaluations...hinting that Cassel was headed for Walmart). This week Gillette goes into Defcon III mode and who the top target is (or choices are at a slot like this) doesn't leak out unless it's selectively leaked. By the only guy whose opinion matters.

 

[Rob0729]

I think we all know that BB did the same thing to Indy in the 2006 draft by taking Maphony because he knew the Colts wanted him - The Colts ended up taking Addai which happened to be an important part of thier championship season that year and gave them something Edgerrin James could not - That appears to have not ended up good for us and Addai is a bit of a better or at least more consistent NFL player at this time IMO.

When you say Addai is more consistent, you mean he has sucked more consistently than Maroney. Addai has been mediocre since he played the Pats in 2007. In fact, he was outplayed last year by Dominick Rhodes.

I will give Addai was good their Super Bowl year, but if I had a choice between Maroney and Addai now I would take Maroney in a heartbeat. I wouldn't want Addai on my team. The guy got beat up and lost his heart.

 

[patchick]

We should watch these two on Friday though...

Last year 1 week before the draft Banks had them liking Rivers better at LB if that was the pick and Holley's assignment was pushing interest in Dorsey and Ellis as trade bait...selective smoke being blown. Often the quid pro quo is the real skinny when it's too late for others to rethink their strategy.

Excellent point. Of course, if the same reporters dutifully give out phony & fake info on the same schedule each year, the whole thing's blown. Which means that...umm...who knows?

PatsTrojans had his sources last season

Yep, and he seemed to be fed the exact same series of lines: all Rivers & Ellis...until the day before the draft when it was suddenly Mayo (per Holley in advance).

 

[Rob0729]

We should watch these two on Friday though...

Last year 1 week before the draft Banks had them liking Rivers better at LB if that was the pick and Holley's assignment was pushing interest in Dorsey and Ellis as trade bait...selective smoke being blown. Often the quid pro quo is the real skinny when it's too late for others to rethink their strategy.

I don't buy this. Teams rethink their strategies in the draft on a 15 minute basis during the draft most of the time. You give a team 24 hours and they can totally retool their entire draft board. You are talking about teams in the top 15 who would have to revise their draft strategy. Each of those teams are juggling between one of a handful of players. With over 24 hours notice, do you really that a team sitting in 11-15 who wanted Mayo couldn't come up with a strategy to jump ahead of the Pats to take Mayo if the Pats traded down like they did? We aren't talking about developing a gameplan for the Super Bowl and announce the night before that Brady who wasn't suppose to play all week is suddenly going to play.

Teams are able to make trades in 10-15 minute windows based on a surprise selection during the draft. The year the Vikes didn't make their selection fast enough, teams were able to reassess and revise their draft board on the fly.

Besides. why would the Pats need a local radio guy to generate interest nationally for a team to trade for the Patriots' spot. All they have to do is announce behind the scenes that they are willing to trade the spot which wasn't secret to begin with. Holley didn't make the Saints decide that it might be a good idea to trade up to get Ellis. I think they figured it out on their own and when he was sitting there at seven, they made the decision to call the Pats.

 

[Rob0729]

Excellent point. Of course, if the same reporters dutifully give out phony & fake info on the same schedule each year, the whole thing's blown. Which means that...umm...who knows?



Yep, and he seemed to be fed the exact same series of lines: all Rivers & Ellis...until the day before the draft when it was suddenly Mayo (per Holley in advance).

Still don't know what strategic advantage is gained by telegraphing the top guy on your draft board in any situation other than the #1 pick and even then you shouldn't telegraph that until you have played other players off that player to get the best deal possible (a la what Parcells did to Jake Long last year playing Chris Long and Matt Ryan off of him to get a more value contract).

 

[ICSB]

Damn where is this DHB buzz comin from all of a sudden for the Colts? Even the IndyStar dedicated a whole article to him today and how he loves Marvin and studied him.

I never even thought he would fall to 27.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Interesting piece by kirwin about smokescreens.

"Keep in mind that the media and fans are not privy to what teams are really going to do. But teams will use the media to create illusions about their intentions. Most outsiders are driven by team needs to decipher what a team may do in the draft, and that is the groundwork for a smoke screen.

Here are some other things teams do when they want to get a false story out there:

1. Don't visit the guy you really want, visit a few players you have little interest in and send people speculating about your plans.

2. Get a solid young veteran extended a day or two before the draft to end any interest in a player from the same position.

3. Have the head coach go to a pro day or have a late private workout with a candidate. This kind of news spreads like wildfire, and the natural conclusion is that there's real interest.

There will be negotiations all the way up to Saturday morning, and agents become some of the best messengers when it comes to smokescreens, posturing and, to some degree, lying.

Of course, all the smokescreens and posturing can lead to an unhappy ending when a team ahead of you isn't buying it or is sending out their own smoke.

We'll get some answers this weekend."



Don't believe the hype ... it could just be a smokescreen

 

[Keegs]

If BB reaches for Butler at 23, I will absolutely lose it..............

wow. you must be really qualified.

 

[RayClay]

I'm glad Bill has decided to share all his picks with reporters and fans before hand. Sure, it gives our competition a leg up, but it makes for such a warm friendly atmosphere, and you know how important people's approval, especially the members of the Press, is to BB.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't buy this. Teams rethink their strategies in the draft on a 15 minute basis during the draft most of the time. You give a team 24 hours and they can totally retool their entire draft board. You are talking about teams in the top 15 who would have to revise their draft strategy. Each of those teams are juggling between one of a handful of players. With over 24 hours notice, do you really that a team sitting in 11-15 who wanted Mayo couldn't come up with a strategy to jump ahead of the Pats to take Mayo if the Pats traded down like they did? We aren't talking about developing a gameplan for the Super Bowl and announce the night before that Brady who wasn't suppose to play all week is suddenly going to play.

Teams are able to make trades in 10-15 minute windows based on a surprise selection during the draft. The year the Vikes didn't make their selection fast enough, teams were able to reassess and revise their draft board on the fly.

Besides. why would the Pats need a local radio guy to generate interest nationally for a team to trade for the Patriots' spot. All they have to do is announce behind the scenes that they are willing to trade the spot which wasn't secret to begin with. Holley didn't make the Saints decide that it might be a good idea to trade up to get Ellis. I think they figured it out on their own and when he was sitting there at seven, they made the decision to call the Pats.

I think maybe you discount all this because you're projecting there are 32 really savvy FO operations out there who are immune to outside influences like the team we root for is... that's just not the case. Rookie tandems, guys hanging onto jobs by a thumbnail, owners with fanboy mentalities...not to mention idiot GM's like former mediot Millen was for years (and his replacements may not be much better). There are actually franchises out there who do not handle their own scouting, if you can believe that in this billion dollar business...LOL

90 days ago there were no bankable first round franchise QB's in this draft. Now, having not played a down since New Years, there may be 3...

 

[Rob0729]

I think maybe you discount all this because you're projecting there are 32 really savvy FO operations out there who are immune to outside influences like the team we root for is... that's just not the case. Rookie tandems, guys hanging onto jobs by a thumbnail, owners with fanboy mentalities...not to mention idiot GM's like former mediot Millen was for years (and his replacements may not be much better). There are actually franchises out there who do not handle their own scouting, if you can believe that in this billion dollar business...LOL

90 days ago there were no bankable first round franchise QB's in this draft. Now, having not played a down since New Years, there may be 3...

Not discounting it at all. I think virtually any GM in any sport barring Matt Millen or Al Davis (both who selected before the Pats picked anyway) could readjust their draft board in 24 hours if they got the news that the Pats were going to trade down to get Mayo. Are you really going to tell me that there were any GMs who when hit with that news tore up their entire draft board because it was such Earth shattering news that their entire draft strategy was thrown off because of this?

Many people predicted that the Saints would trade with the Pats to move up to get Ellis long before draft day. Everyone knew that the Pats were probably going to target a LB with their first pick. There were only so many possibilities out there. Mayo had been moving up on a lot draft boards the last few weeks. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure that what the Pats did on draft day was a possibility long before Michael Holley announced it on the radio.

There are several dumb GMs out there, but lets not start acting like Belichick is only GM out there who can walk and chew gum at the same time. Most of the GMs in the league are very bright people and given 26-27 hours to deal with the news that the Pats would trade down and select Mayo, most of the GMs could figure out their contigency plan and still get eight ours of sleep, attend a pre-draft part, and get 18 holes of golf in if they wanted to.

As for teams not doing their own scouting, all teams do their own scouting. Many get a lot of their scouting information from smaller schools for service bureaus but that is because they don't have the budgets to hire the scouts neccessary to do the proper scouting. That isn't neccessarily the fault of the GM. I think if you put Belichick or Pioli in Cincy they would fail on scouting because Mike Brown doesn't believe in funding the activity.

Seriously we are talking about the Pats trading down three spots and taking a certain player. We aren't talking about them trading down to get four picks in a row in the first round and selecting four players at the same position with that pick. At worst, teams were dealing with removing their #1 target off their draft board and going with #2, #3, or #4 which ever was available. At most it forced teams to test the waters to move up and see what it took to get ahead of the Patriots if they wanted Mayo. That wouldn't take much time at all.