The Uncle Heatster three-round mock, 4/3

[mgteich]

1) So, you don't think Hood, Jackson or Gilbert will have the highest value to Belichick at 23. I presume that Belichick will pick one if he sees the value, or would he pass as he might for a QB at that draft position? We'll see if one of them is there.

2) We can wait until the next off-season and consider trading up with 2 or 3 of our 2010 picks to hope to get a pick in 2010 who is ready to be major contributers in the 34 in their rookie year. Alternatively, we could find a top starter in the free agent market to replace Green or Seymour.

3) Would you expect any of your Day Two DE prospects to beat our LeKevin for a roster spot, or would you need to keep seven DL's on the roster?

The only one of those four you could say was a positional "reach" was Graham. But the Patriots of 2001 are a far cry from the 2004-2009 editions.

Watson wasn't a positional reach. If Belechick put a lot of emphasis on position, tight end would have been off the board after already spending a #1+ on a starter. Or at the very least, a late-round pick. Watson is the best example of anti-reaching...taking whom you believe to be the best player available.

Mankins was considered by many to be a "reach" but not because he was an offensive lineman. He was a "reach" the same way some pundits thought Branch and Johnson were "reaches"...some "experts" expected them to be drafted considerably later.

Those two in particular, and you could throw various others in the mix (Matt Light, Ellis Hobbs, Eugene Wilson) were drafted because they were the best value on Belichick's board...which tends not to match up with Mel Kiper's.

If Belichick thinks that Gilbert or whomever is the best value available at #34, I have no doubt he'll be drafted. I absolutely do not believe that Belichick is going to commit #34 or any pick to draft a defensive end. There's no need to...We have four healthy, productive DEs on the roster now. On day two of the draft there will be better values (IMO) on the board, like Corvey Irvin, John Gill, or Nader Abdallah than to go off the value board to take one in particular. If Seymour and/or Green need to move on next year, then we'll use next offseason to address it.

 

[AzPatsFan]

33 Lions - James Laurinaitis LB Ohio St
34 Titans (From Kansas City via New England) Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
35 Rams - Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
36 Browns - Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest

37 Patriots (From Seattle) - Top guys on my value board are Chung, Delmas, and Cook - in that order. I'm willing to gamble they'll be there at #47. OTs have been going quickly, and Jamon Meredith is the last of the upper-tier prospects.

38 Bengals - Phil Loadholt OT Oklahoma
39 Jaguars - Kenny Britt WR Rutgers
40 Raiders - Aaron Maybin LB Penn St
41 Packers - Ron Brace DT Boston College
42 Bills - Jarron Gilbert DE San Jose St
43 49ers - Michael Johnson LB Georgia Tech
44 Dolphins (From Washington) - Sean Smith CB Utah
45 Giants (From New Orleans) - Larry English LB Northern Illinois
46 Texans - Max Unger C Oregon

47 Patriots (From San Diego) - Safety, TE, and OG are my three options here...and there are multiple players available for each. Safety could conceivably get on the field a lot this year. But a seam-bursting TE might not be available 11 picks from now. Guard really won't be an immediate need if our OL stays healthy, so maybe that could wait until the third. I'm casting my lot with Jared Cook here and look for a safety at 58. He's our starting TE in 2010, and he should be an impact special teams player and spot-player until then. If Watson gets hurt, he could get a lot of reps.

48 Broncos (From Texans) Paul Kruger LB Utah
49 Bears - Josh Freeman QB Kansas St
50 Browns (From Tampa Bay) - Donald Brown RB Connecticut
51 Cowboys - Louis Delmas S Western Michigan
52 Jets - Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma
53 Eagles - Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss
54 Vikings - Eric Wood C Louisville
55 Falcons - Marcus Freeman LB Ohio St
56 Dolphins - Mike Thomas WR Arizona
57 Ravens - DJ Moore CB Vanderbilt

58 Patriots - I think it's safety time. I like Patrick Chung here, but it's conceivable the boss prefers Moore.

59 Panthers - Fili Moala DT USC
60 Giants - Mike Mickens CB Cincinnati
61 Colts - SenDerrick Marks DT Auburn
62 Titans - Derrick Williams WR Penn St
63 Cardinals - Andre Brown RB North Carolina St
64 Steelers - Duke Robinson G Oklahoma

65 Lions - Pat White QB West Virginia
66 Rams - Louis Murphy WR Florida
67 Chiefs - Lawrence Sidbury LB Richmond
68 Seahawks - Will Moore S Missouri
69 Cowboys (From Cleveland) - Jairus Byrd CB Oregon
70 Bengals - Jonathan Luigs C Arkansas
71 Raiders - Rashad Johnson S Alabama
72 Jaguars - LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh
73 Packers - Dorell Scott DE Clemson
74 Browns (From San Francisco) - Jaspar Brinkley LB South Carolina
75 Bills - James Casey TE Rice
76 Jets (From New Orleans)- Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston St
77 Texans - Darry Beckwith LB LSU
78 Chargers - Andy Levitre G Oregon St
79 Broncos - Alex Magee DE Purdue
80 Redskins - Gerald McRath LB Southern Miss
81 Buccaneers - Asher Allen CB Georgia
82 Lions (From Dallas ) - Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M
83 Packers (From New York Jets) - Victor Harris CB Virginia Tech
84 Bears - Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia
85 Eagles - Chip Vaughn S Wake Forest
86 Vikings - Gerald Cadogan T Penn St
87 Dolphins - Chase Coffman TE Missouri
88 Ravens - Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly

89 Patriots - Ideally, there would be a NT or ILB worth taking here. The top five guys on my board are DBs...and Coye Francies is tempting. Beyond them, I see Tyrone McKenzie, TJ Lang, and Antoine Caldwell, plus some nice WRs. I guess the question here is if McKenzie is a significantly better ILB prospect than Robert Francois or Antonio Appleby and worth passing up one of the DBs. Probably not, which means my board needs adjusting. After almost exhausting my allotted time, I select Coye Francies CB San Jose St as the best available value.

90 Falcons - Sherrod Martin DB Troy
91 Giants - Dannell Ellerbee LB Georgia
92 Colts - Javon Ringer RB Michigan St
93 Panthers - David Veikune DE Hawai'i
94 Titans - Ricky-Jean Francois DT LSU
95 Cardinals - Darcel McBath S Texas Tech
96 Steelers - TJ Lang G Eastern Michigan

97 Patriots - Well, not much has changed. TJ Lang is the only one to come off the board whom I was considering here, so once again, I'm left with McKenzie, Caldwell, AQ Shipley, WRs like Dillard, and some OLB prospects. There are few people in this draft whom you can feel confident in their on-field performance, measurables, and pedigree. Shipley's one of them, and if I thought he could play guard, I'd put his name on the card. Unfortunately, I think he's stuck at center, and I'm happy with Hochstein as a backup there. Instead I'm going WR, and drafting Jarrett Dillard WR Rice.

98 Bengals - Rashad Jennings RB Liberty
99 Bears - Austin Collie WR BYU
100 Giants - Troy Kropog OT Tulane

Pats Recap:
#30 Clint Sintim OLB Virginia
#37 Jamon Meredith OL South Carolina
#47 Jared Cook TE South Carolina
#58 Patrick Chung S Oregon
#89 Coye Francies CB San Jose St
#97 Jarrett Dillard WR Rice

Plus Seattle's #1 in 2010.

Wonderful Draft. No starters and a couple of conversion projects. And a bunch of players that add depth where we have no room for them. Wunnerful, just wunnerful!

 

[jsull87]

i like your draft day trades just uffer slightly with my personal opinions on who we would take. also do you think that the cardinals or steelers really would pick up sintim tho we could keep the extra pick and stay where the value in this draft is in that early 2nd round and just trade our later picks foreward e.g seattle style. i think with alot of the picks and bb saying that it will be hard for 11 rookies to make this roster. i think trading picks foreward e.g san fran and your seattle tade is good

 

[dryheat44]

Wonderful Draft. No starters and a couple of conversion projects. And a bunch of players that add depth where we have no room for them. Wunnerful, just wunnerful!

If there are two people in the draft that I think can start by October, they're Sintim and Chung. Who else is a starter to you? Sure, Moore, Delmas probably could as well. There's no room on the roster for a G/T? Mike Richardson can't be improved on at CB? Dave Thomas at TE? And there's no conversion projects in the bunch.

I don't mind the disagreements, nor the criticisms really, but you're objections are non-sensical. Should we trade our entire draft for two picks that we have room for?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Should we trade our entire draft for two picks that we have room for?

I'm hip.

 

[dryheat44]

1) So, you don't think Hood, Jackson or Gilbert will have the highest value to Belichick at 23. I presume that Belichick will pick one if he sees the value, or would he pass as he might for a QB at that draft position? We'll see if one of them is there.

Obviously it would depend who was there. If Jackson were available, I think he'd be on a very short list. Hood may be as well, but I have him a little lower. In this mock, one goes at #16 and the other at #20, so it's really not an option at #23. Gilbert I have a fourth round grade on. I don't think he's going to be a very good 3-4 end. I don't pretend to know Belichick's draft board, but to me, he was also gone (#42) well before he approached his value.

2) We can wait until the next off-season and consider trading up with 2 or 3 of our 2010 picks to hope to get a pick in 2010 who is ready to be major contributers in the 34 in their rookie year. Alternatively, we could find a top starter in the free agent market to replace Green or Seymour.

Agreed. Until we know for certain the landscape of the next two years, it's hard to say. What I do know is that we'll have an extra transition tag if we need it. I don't want to slap in on Seymour except as a last resort, but it may come to that. Half the team are free agents after this season, and I have to believe that it's by design. But I absolutely agree it is necessary to get younger at the position, although I do think we'll get a new contract with Wilfork and Seymour if BB wants to.

3) Would you expect any of your Day Two DE prospects to beat our LeKevin for a roster spot, or would you need to keep seven DL's on the roster?

Expect is a tough word. I think they'd have an opportunity. If Smith remains our primary backup NT though, he'll be on the roster regardless. Ideally, a guy like Gill or Irvin could make it to the PS if they can't crack the 53. In any case, 7 DLs doesn't seem like a huge amount to keep on the 53-man roster. Certainly no more disproportionate that 3 QBs, 5 RBs, or 6 WRs.