Does Belichick have any faith in his own defense?

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Just got my power back, and I'll start by saying GOING FOR THE ONSIDE KICK WAS THE DUMBEST THING I'VE ******* SEEN. 2:40 left with 3 timeouts..

This defensive rebuilding seems to be getting worse.

Excellent points, clearly well thought out.

With 2:40 left and 3 time outs, no matter where you kick it, you're counting on Pitt running 3 times and NOT getting a 1st down. If they get a first down, the game is over, the best you can hope for is getting ball back with 30ish seconds in horrible field position and no time outs.
Kicking onside gives you a chance to have 2:40 and 3 time outs to go 55 yards to win the game. Since either way defensively you need a 3 and out for a chance to win, why not give your offense the best possible chance to win by kicking an onside?

 

[Deus Irae]

Excellent points, clearly well thought out.

With 2:40 left and 3 time outs, no matter where you kick it, you're counting on Pitt running 3 times and NOT getting a 1st down. If they get a first down, the game is over, the best you can hope for is getting ball back with 30ish seconds in horrible field position and no time outs.
Kicking onside gives you a chance to have 2:40 and 3 time outs to go 55 yards to win the game. Since either way defensively you need a 3 and out for a chance to win, why not give your offense the best possible chance to win by kicking an onside?

You might want to re-check your math on what happens when they get that first down after the onsides attempt, because there is no 9 point scoring play.

 

[RayClay]

I absolutely think decisions like that are influenced by what BB thinks of that particular defenses ability to stop that offense on that day.

This particular defense hadn't once, that i can recall. why would he think it was likely they would now? so the onside kick was the better odds, same as 4th down try with a tired defense against Peyton.

So, as to the original question, he didn't have a lot of faith in his defense against that team on that day.

I would say his willingness to cut loose DBs he didn't feel were on the right path shows a hell of a lot of faith in himself, which is an overlooked quality IMO.

For what it's worth, a lot of teams wish their coaches showed that kind of balls. It is a battle of wills in the long run and our coach doesn't blink.

 

[condon84]

We should have kicked it deep. No question.

2:40 left with three timeouts. We kick it deep, force a three and out and get the ball back somewhere in our own 30 or 40 with two minutes left. Belichick had absolutely no faith in our defense being able to do that.

Kicking it onside gave the Steelers the field position advantage. Had we forced a three and out at that point, we would have gotten the ball back deep in our end. An extra 20-30 yards would be huge in a 2 minute drill especially against that defense with no timeouts.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Excellent points, clearly well thought out.

With 2:40 left and 3 time outs, no matter where you kick it, you're counting on Pitt running 3 times and NOT getting a 1st down. If they get a first down, the game is over, the best you can hope for is getting ball back with 30ish seconds in horrible field position and no time outs.
Kicking onside gives you a chance to have 2:40 and 3 time outs to go 55 yards to win the game. Since either way defensively you need a 3 and out for a chance to win, why not give your offense the best possible chance to win by kicking an onside?

If an NFL defense cant stop an offense that they know is going to run the ball 3 times, than they shouldn't step on the field. Pitt wasnt going to throw the ball back up in their own zone. The clock would have also stopped at the 2 minute warning. It was completely idiotic, nice try justifying it though

 

[Sicilian]

Pitt wasnt going to throw the ball back up in their own zone.

They absolutely would have. That was their gameplan the whole game, and they'd done it before (I believe against the Jets last year they rolled Ben out and threw on third down when running it would have eaten more clock). Their best bet to winning the game was getting one first down, and they would have thrown on at least two downs no matter where they were on the field, because that's where their yards were coming from.

 

[Keyser Söze]

They absolutely would have. That was their gameplan the whole game, and they'd done it before (I believe against the Jets last year they rolled Ben out and threw on third down when running it would have eaten more clock). Their best bet to winning the game was getting one first down, and they would have thrown on at least two downs no matter where they were on the field, because that's where their yards were coming from.

No chance they would have risked the ball getting picked.

 

[Sicilian]

No chance they would have risked the ball getting picked.

Couldn't disagree more. Knowing we have the ability to stop the run three straight times and that Brady can "easily" (that's in quotes for a reason, don't try to take it literally) score a TD if you give him 2+ minutes to work with, they would run the plays that gave them the best chance at a 1st down. That was how they won the game on that last possession, getting the 1st by throwing the ball.

 

[mgteich]

So? Should Belichick simply do what the majority would do?

And just BTW, do you remember the last onside kick by the patriots with Belichick as coach?

ANSWER
There has never been a successful onside kick with Belichick coaching the patriots. However, Belichick was on the field the last time the patriots executed a successful onside kick, coaching Cleveland.

BOTTOM LINE
The probability of a successful patriot onside kick is extremely low (at least that is what it would seem).

To tell you the truth, I think more than half of the coaches out there would have done an onside kick in that situation. .

 

[Ring 6]

So? Should Belichick simply do what the majority would do?

And just BTW, do you remember the last onside kick by the patriots with Belichick as coach?

ANSWER
There has never been a successful onside kick with Belichick coaching the patriots. However, Belichick was on the field the last time the patriots executed a successful onside kick, coaching Cleveland.

BOTTOM LINE
The probability of a successful patriot onside kick is extremely low (at least that is what it would seem).

To tell you the truth, I think more than half of the coaches out there would have done an onside kick in that situation. .

With the best record in the NFL (and in HISTORY with Brady under center) how many opportunities has he had to onside kick? If its 0 for 2 then it isn't very telling that he has never converted one.
There is simply no doubt that the chance of A is greater than the chance of B in the amount of time left when

A= getting the onside kick and scoring OR stopping them after the onside kick and getting the ball back and scoring
B= scoring after kicking the ball deep, on a field that may be 15-20 yards shorter.

In other words the increase in the chance of stopping them and scoring based on the better field position of kicking deep than onside kicking is less than the chance of getting the onside kick, while getting hte onside kick ALSO either preserves timeouts or clock, essentially adding 2 minutes to the drive.

I don't know how its even debatable.