Do you make the trade?

[Deus Irae]

A lot of people have talked about who's going to be available for the Patriots in the first round. Well, I've been looking at trade partners and rumored trends, and I've got a "what if" to bounce off of people:

What if CLE talks to BB and offers him #35 and their 4th round pick (#106) for the Patriots pick at #29? The draft chart point difference is negligible (8 points), and it would allow Cleveland to use their two higher first round picks for regular players, with #29 going to grabbing a QB, while giving the Patriots another 4th round pick without dropping down too far early in the draft.


Your thoughts are appreciated.

 

[Off The Grid]

A lot of people have talked about who's going to be available for the Patriots in the first round. Well, I've been looking at trade partners and rumored trends, and I've got a "what if" to bounce off of people:

What if CLE talks to BB and offers him #35 and their 4th round pick (#106) for the Patriots pick at #29? The draft chart point difference is negligible (8 points), and it would allow Cleveland to use their two higher first round picks for regular players, with #29 going to grabbing a QB, while giving the Patriots another 4th round pick without dropping down too far early in the draft.


Your thoughts are appreciated.

I would pounce on that Trade.

1 ~ I think people generally pay too much to Trade Up, and I'm always thrilled to take their Money, so to speak.

2 ~ Of course, the last few Picks in the bottom of the 1st Round always have the possibility of attracting a Premium, our Trade to the Saints of #28 for #56 and a Deferred 1st Rounder being a prominent example. So I'd certainly try like Hell to hold the Browns's feet to the fire...But if #35 and #106 was the best I could do, I'd be content with that. For me, it'd be enough to Make a Move.

3 ~ Looking good, by the way. Do you have plans for Dinner, tonight?

 

[Wilfork#75]

It all depends on who is still on the board at 29 and who they project to be on the board at 35. If there are still a number of guys available at 29 they are comfortable with and believe at least one of them will still be there at 35 then sure, I have no problem with the value of the trade back. If the draft falls badly though and there is only one or two of their main targets left then maybe not. The situation is the key to this scenario.

 

[mgteich]

Obviously, it depends.

I like first rounders because of the ability to get a bit more talent for 5 years, instead of a bit less talent for 4 years. However, I could certainly see a situation where Belichick has 6-7 players available at 29 about equal in value and thinks that he could still get at least one at 35.

I suppose I agree with an unnamed poster who last year wanted to draft a better quality player in the 1st instead of trading down. This year the picks later on are more valuable. However, it will also be harder to find a great deal.

I certainly could see us making the trade an using one or both of our fourths to move up from in the 2nd or 3rd. Alternatively, we could the two tradable fourths to get another top 75 pick.

 

[Ivan]

Unless a player they absolutely love is sitting there for them you make the deal. I have some trepidation with it because the closer the draft gets the more i want them to take Austin Sefarian-Jenkins in the first because paired with Gronk they would be able to run their complete offense and would be scary in the red zone. However imo this is a draft where there are going to be a large number of surprises in the first which will push at least a few of the players the patriots would like to get to the #35 range. I think this draft may be the least defined in terms of understanding who will go top 40 as I have seen. The top 15 is pretty much set but after that i can see a bunch of players who could surprise in the first while guys currently ranked as first rounders slide into the second, and that dynamic may run right into the 3rd and 4th rounds as teams go need over generic ranking. In a way it may actually make more sense this year to look at team needs throughout the league as the predicator of who will go top 100 over player rankings. TE is a good example of this imo as whether sefarian-Jenkins has first round grade or not the fact that he is almost certain to be the second TE taken is going to move him up the board. But if the Patriots did make this deal and Sefarian Jenkins went before they picked they could still go for either Niklas in the 2nd or Fiedorowicz in the 3rd while still picking up the early 4th, and then still address DL, LB, and OL with their next 3 picks, meeting many of their serious needs going into the draft, with the #130 and #140 filling them out.

Bottom line, make the deal.

 

[zimmy]

I would do that trade too. I'm zeroing in on two players in the 32-50 range. I'd like to get two of:

Attaochu, Easley, ASJ.

Each would be a tad too rich at 29, but all likely gone by 62. Can use the 4th rounder to trade back up from 62.

 

[Coach42]

On Patchicks thread about who could conceivable be available at 29 and who'd you be comfortable selecting it was really easy to come up with 8-10 reasonable prospects. I'd be all over that trade.

 

[Mike the Brit]

This discussion seems a good place to make a point that draftniks seem to ignore.

The value of a trade varies greatly depending on when it's made.

So, if it's made before the draft, this trade is the exchange between the right to take a player who might be available at #29 versus the right to take the players who might be available at #35 and #106.

But, if it's made during the draft -- say, when pick #28 is in -- the equation changes: it's the right to take the player who will be available at #29 versus the players who might be available at #35 and #106. The extra knowledge changes things drastically. The value of picks is affected by uncertainty, but that uncertainty diminishes progressively as the draft itself proceeds. If teams had accurate information about who would be available when their picks came their behaviour would be very different. In this case, the trading up team has it, but the trading down team hasn't.

That's why talking about trades up and trades down in terms of a single Draft Value Chart is misguided.

 

[Brady6]

- #29, #62, and #130 to the Browns for #35, #71, #83, and #106

A lot of people have talked about who's going to be available for the Patriots in the first round. Well, I've been looking at trade partners and rumored trends, and I've got a "what if" to bounce off of people:

What if CLE talks to BB and offers him #35 and their 4th round pick (#106) for the Patriots pick at #29? The draft chart point difference is negligible (8 points), and it would allow Cleveland to use their two higher first round picks for regular players, with #29 going to grabbing a QB, while giving the Patriots another 4th round pick without dropping down too far early in the draft.


Your thoughts are appreciated.

To answer your question, yes I would make that trade. That aside I find it unlikely that Cleveland would be looking to trade into the first round when they hold the #4 and #26 pick already. I think the more likely scenarios would be –

- #29 to the Redskins for #34 and #102
- #29 to the Raiders for #36 and #107

Or something along those lines with another team picking in the top 10 of the second round. Another option would be to trade multiple picks –

- #29 and #93 to the Raiders for #36 and #67
- #29 and #62 to the Vikings for #40, #72, #96, and #108
- #29 and #62 to the Browns for #35, #71, and #83

 

[Off The Grid]

This discussion seems a good place to make a point that draftniks seem to ignore.

The value of a trade varies greatly depending on when it's made.

So, if it's made before the draft, this trade is the exchange between the right to take a player who might be available at #29 versus the right to take the players who might be available at #35 and #106.

But, if it's made during the draft -- say, when pick #28 is in -- the equation changes: it's the right to take the player who will be available at #29 versus the players who might be available at #35 and #106. The extra knowledge changes things drastically. The value of picks is affected by uncertainty, but that uncertainty diminishes progressively as the draft itself proceeds. If teams had accurate information about who would be available when their picks came their behaviour would be very different. In this case, the trading up team has it, but the trading down team hasn't.

That's why talking about trades up and trades down in terms of a single Draft Value Chart is misguided.

Um...what???

1 ~ How often do such Trades happen before the Draft??

2 ~ Do you suppose that maybe the reason that "Draftnicks" ~ whatever the Hell those are ~ never bring this up is because it never happens?? But, hey: Thanks for your condescending "Insight".

3 ~ A Theoretical was brought up...I guess the fact that is was theoretical wasn't entirely obvious to all.

 

[BTTA]

I like first rounders because of the ability to get a bit more talent for 5 years, instead of a bit less talent for 4 years.

I'd forgotten about this fact, and it does seem significant now that you raise it. Over the years, it could indeed make a difference in roster management and cap matters.

 

[manxman2601]

Um...what???

1 ~ How often do such Trades happen before the Draft??

2 ~ Do you suppose that maybe the reason that "Draftnicks" ~ whatever the Hell those are ~ never bring this up is because it never happens?? But, hey: Thanks for your condescending "Insight".

3 ~ A Theoretical was brought up...I guess the fact that is was theoretical wasn't entirely obvious to all.

I haven't researched it too much but the only trade that I can think of that happened pre-draft that was about draft position rather than about a player was the Redskins trade up with the Rams. And even then there were enough certainties that things could be negotiated with knowledge of eho the target player was. I'd love to know if there are any other exaples of a pre-draft trade. I think it's one of those draft myths like players moving up teams' boards or "smokescreens".

 

[Galeb]

3 ~ A Theoretical was brought up...I guess the fact that is was theoretical wasn't entirely obvious to all.

It wasn't obvious to me. I thought it was hypothetical, not to be confused with hyperthreadical.

 

[patfanken]

Clearly this is a great draft to have a lot of picks in. The Pats have 8 right now. The problem is that nearly EVERY team is going to be looking to trade down in the first round, from the top of the round to the bottom. Every team is going to be working those phones hoping for some deal. So obviously its going to be a buyer's market this year. You have to wonder that in such a market there will enough value to make a deal down there worth it.

I'm sure that every one of the teams with the final 10 picks of the first round wouldn't LOVE a chance to move down to one of the first 8 picks. The biggest problem would be if Cleveland doesn't pick a QB with their first pick. If they don't (which is likely) then any team at the top of the 2nd round who desires a QB, would likely need to get above #26 to get the top guy, since Cleveland is likely to go QB with their 2nd pick.

Of course its all relative to who you thing you want. Right now all the guys that I want might not even reach the Pats at 29, so I'd be loath to risk another 5-7 picks to come off the board before I picked. But its not about who I like, but rather who BB likes and wants. Unfortunately, because as usual, we don't have a clue on that score.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Um...what???

1 ~ How often do such Trades happen before the Draft??

2 ~ Do you suppose that maybe the reason that "Draftnicks" ~ whatever the Hell those are ~ never bring this up is because it never happens?? But, hey: Thanks for your condescending "Insight".

3 ~ A Theoretical was brought up...I guess the fact that is was theoretical wasn't entirely obvious to all.

It wasn't meant to be condescending. But it is important. The question asked in the OP: do you make this trade? suggests that the question is: "as things are now, would you prefer picks #35 and #106? to #29" and that's how people have been answering it. But, when you get to that stage of the real draft, people will know WHO is available at #29 and that's a completely different question. It explains why trading up can often be a good strategy, even if the apparent "value" isn't there. If you and everyone else who thinks about the draft was fully aware of that difference because it was bleedingly obvious, then I apologize for wasting space.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Any extra 3rd or 4th pick is a big deal in this draft. There is ideal RB and TE talent that is probably going to be sitting there among other positions. Also getting the extra pick gives BB more flexibility to move around the draft board so to speak.

Not to mention an earlier posters remarks about ASJ or Easley being over drafted at 29 but maybe hitting the sweet spot at 35 or 36.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that there may be ideal talent available in the 4th. I would list RB and QB as likely positions. I don't think any of the top 5 TE's will be there. I suspect that the others will be competing with Williams for a roster spot. That being said, an additional fourth would be valuable as currency to move up from 62, 93 or 130.

Any extra 3rd or 4th pick is a big deal in this draft. There is ideal RB and TE talent that is probably going to be sitting there among other positions. Also getting the extra pick gives BB more flexibility to move around the draft board so to speak.

Not to mention an earlier posters remarks about ASJ or Easley being over drafted at 29 but maybe hitting the sweet spot at 35 or 36.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The way I see it. Teams are finally understanding that the QB class of the 2014 draft is filled with a lot of QB's that have a lot of warts. Therefore I expect a few QB's to tumble down the draft board as teams give them second round grades. So I expect a highly rated QB or two to be available at #29. And someone is going to blink and call BB.

After careful consideration, Jacksonville is a team I expect would be willing to make the following trade:

#39, #105 and #150 for our first round pick.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Depends on what you call big 5 TE? I consider Rodgers or Gillmore in the 4th or 5th as better value than Niklas or Fiedorowicz in the 2nd or 3rd. I actually prefer the two talent wise as better fits but that's just me. I'm sure others will disagree due to eye popping combines/underwear numbers or they watched the games and really liked what they saw.

 

[Patriot Missile]

That would be a heist.