Did Belichick use the"Maddux Gambit?"

[PatsFaninAZ]

Some time around the middle of the season, I gave serious thought to suggesting that BB plays possum during the year. It isn't that I don't think he's trying to win every game. I think he very much understood the implications of the Indy game -- it turned out meaning the difference of the site of the host of the AFC championship game -- so there's no part of me that thinks he didn't want to win it.

That said, I'm becoming convinced that he is very aware of the fact that getting to the playoffs is not the be all and end all. In the final analysis, this is a guy who is very secure in his job, and I suspect that the difference between ending up 9-7 and not makint the playoffs and losing the AFC championship ultimately does not matter all that much. He wants to win the war, not the battles, and he has a lifetime job if he wants to, so winning the battles is irrelevant to him.

So I do think he coaches for the entire year, and that includes not showing everything. He's a guy that understands what can be done with game film better than anyone in the league, so I think he has a great awareness of what other teams will be able to figure out in the future from Patriots' game tapes, and I think he coaches the season, in part, to keep his opponents from being able to scout his team. Sometimes that means not showing everyting in the regular season.

 

[fgssand]

With the Colts Sanders back for that one game...I seem to recall we tried running, early in the 3rd quarter and we were stooped cold. The Colts had made their halftime adjustments and we were not able to come out and do what had brought us success in the first half.

That, more than anything is what I feel the reason we went to trickery and passing to try to beat them and it should have worked.

Remember, before Brady's final pick - we were in position for a late 4th quarter drive to take over the game.

As for Sanders - put a hat on that dude when he comes up in the box and then burn him with play action.

As for James Sanders - he is now playing very good football and the Colts need to watch out for him, after Rodney went down in the last game - we were not prepared at all. He also has shown the ability to get to the QB should we decide to send him.

As for the Gambit, nah, I am not buying, "you play to win the game" not set things up for a potential meeting down the road.

This is a game of match ups - I feel we simply match up better than the Colts in most areas.

 

[fgssand]

In case anyone cares to study.....

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20061105_IND@NE

 

[AzPatsFan]

The people who criticize this hypothesis say that BB never would "throw a game on purpose". They are of course correct.

But did BB know at the time that choosing another play rather than a run wouldn't work?? No more than you know whether the next play will work or not, until it is tried. All of the plays on the script, were plays chosen that might work against the Colts Defenses. Or they wouldn't have been in the game plan.

He did not throw the game, he merely tried to win, with some other additional plays, some of which worked, and some of which unfortunately did not. He had found some plays that worked, he was looking to find some more as well, to add to the Colt's confusion.

He wasn't trying to lose; he was trying to win and establish as many tools to win next time as he could. Sound philosophy.

The Patriots didn't lose 40 to zip, they ended up losing 27-20, a close loss.

 

[Keegs]

wow

I had no idea that Greg Maddux is going to be playing "Gambit" in X-Men 4.

that is fantastic news.

On a serious note, if i had created this thread, i would have been kicked in the balls via the internet about 400 times already.

I said we were going to (and should) trade Branch a while back and everyone acted as if i ran over their favorite pet with my car.
buttheads.

 

[PromisedLand]

I agree with the idea that BB uses the previous game plan to set up his next game plan against the same opponent, but retrospectively, not prospectively.

The regular season Indy game was critically important to the Patriots. Had we won we would likely have had the #2 seed and a first round bye, and any playoff matchup against the Colts would have been in Foxboro, where the Pats have the advantages of home crowd, outdoor winter weather, and a slower field. I don't believe BB does anything but go all out to win every particular game, at least until the team's playoff position is determined.

PS But, great post by Thunder509s. Welcome to the board. Your argument was well thought out, plausible and well expressed, even if I don't agree with it.

 

[mgteich]

I love analysis. Here's mine.
QUESTION 1
How many points will Hobbs allow Harrison to score or to set up? This is a matchup between a an OK corner the best receiving combination in the history of the NFL.

QUESTION 2
How many points will Samuel allow Wayne to score or set up?

QUESTION 3
How many poinst will the linebackser allow Clark, Utrect, Addai and Rhodes to score of set up?

QUESTION 4
What will be the net scoring off turnovers?

QUESTION 5
How many points with the pasts score?

QUESTION 6
Which field goal kicker will kick the game loser or game winner?

The game is not that complicated.

 

[JoeSixPat]

But BB did give up a safety two years ago in a game against Denver. 4th down with the Patriots on thier own 1 yard line BB called for a deliderate safety down by one point with three minutes left in the game. The Patriots ended up winning that game 30 - 26...

I guess sarcasm doesn't come across on message boards if it wasn't clear I was fully aware of that.

Giving up 2 points in a game for field position is one thing. But giving away a game, as well as a chance at home field advantage, and a bye because you THINK you might play the Colts in the Playoffs and would rather give all that up rather than refresh their memories of how you've beaten them in previous meetings??????

This is a VERY different cirumstance than last year's meaningless end of the season game against Miami in which one could presume BB might have preferred to face the Jaguars in the playoffs. That was a very tangible result of losing to Miami.

There is no tangible benefit to losing to Indy early in the season. The tangible harm is that it is a loss and hurts your chances of a bye and homefield advantage.

Come down off the grassy knoll. Now.

 

[pats-blue]

The people who criticize this hypothesis say that BB never would "throw a game on purpose". They are of course correct.

But did BB know at the time that choosing another play rather than a run wouldn't work?? No more than you know whether the next play will work or not, until it is tried. All of the plays on the script, were plays chosen that might work against the Colts Defenses. Or they wouldn't have been in the game plan.

He did not throw the game, he merely tried to win, with some other additional plays, some of which worked, and some of which unfortunately did not. He had found some plays that worked, he was looking to find some more as well, to add to the Colt's confusion.

He wasn't trying to lose; he was trying to win and establish as many tools to win next time as he could. Sound philosophy.

The Patriots didn't lose 40 to zip, they ended up losing 27-20, a close loss.

If I read your post correctly you are 100% right IMO. The only thing wrong in the original post was the perception that the reader gets that BB "threw" the game. BB was trying to win the game but ALSO using it as a way to get film on the colts IMO not so much avoiding giving the colts film. He used the second half to see how the colts D reacted...now with Sanders in he couldn't do alot of different things on D to "test" the colts since Rodney went down...if he hadn't I think you would have seen a few "chances" on D...again to get film on the colts O.

Why is it improbable for some to think BB holds back a little during the regular season? Doesn't he admittedly view the "real" season as starting in Dec? Why ARE the Pats a different team in the playoffs? I think BB saves some stuff for the "real" season when it is one and done IMO

 

[fgssand]

I love analysis. Here's mine.
QUESTION 1
How many points will Hobbs allow Harrison to score or to set up? This is a matchup between a an OK corner the best receiving combination in the history of the NFL.

QUESTION 2
How many points will Samuel allow Wayne to score or set up?

QUESTION 3
How many poinst will the linebackser allow Clark, Utrect, Addai and Rhodes to score of set up?

QUESTION 4
What will be the net scoring off turnovers?

QUESTION 5
How many points with the pasts score?

QUESTION 6
Which field goal kicker will kick the game loser or game winner?

The game is not that complicated.

The answers to questions 1,2 & 3 had better result in "not a lot" or we will be singing a much different tune come Sunday at 10:00 PM.

Anyone care to address how exactly we keep the nightmare scenario of the only key match up that is indeed quite of favorable for the Colts from biting in the ass??

IMHO - the ONLY way the Colts beat us would be through the air with several breakdowns resulting in TD's coming from Harrison, Wayne & Clark.

 

[patpatriot]

The difference in that game was 2 passes tipped by stupid one handed catch attempts by Pats receivers that went for interceptions and the best catch I have ever seen made by Harrison for the winning touchdown. He makes that catch maybe 4-5 times out of 10 attempts...I'm OK with that.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't think BB was trying to lose that game. However it is pretty obvious to me that any coach would save his best tricks for the playoffs. The gambit is an interesting game theory but I doubt BB would give away a game that would have meant the difference in homefield advantage in the playoffs. We certainly tried pretty hard to win the last game of the regular season, leaving our starters in for 3 quarters against the Titans, just in case the Colts ended up losing that week.

 

[NEPat]

I don't think anything will really be a surprise for the Colts, and especially not for Manning. These two teams have played each other so much, maybe BB will try something different than what the Colts saw in the regular season, but I doubt Peyton will be shocked by anything he sees. They are just too familiar with each other.

 

[wdkantro2]

I don't think anything will really be a surprise for the Colts, and especially not for Manning. These two teams have played each other so much, maybe BB will try something different than what the Colts saw in the regular season, but I doubt Peyton will be shocked by anything he sees. They are just too familiar with each other.

It doesn't matter how many times someone has seen something if it consistently beats them. I'm not saying this will happen with Manning, but everytime we play the Broncos they do the same thing and we still lose. Everytime we played the Herm Edwards jets, we beat them doing the same thing.

 

[NEPat]

It doesn't matter how many times someone has seen something if it consistently beats them. I'm not saying this will happen with Manning, but everytime we play the Broncos they do the same thing and we still lose. Everytime we played the Herm Edwards jets, we beat them doing the same thing.

Sure, I agree. I just don't think the Pats are going to come up with something that will catch the Colts by surprise, even if they didn't see it in the regular season game.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Sure, I agree. I just don't think the Pats are going to come up with something that will catch the Colts by surprise, even if they didn't see it in the regular season game.

I disagree. I think giving Belichick those two game tapes of the Colts in the two playoff games is like giving meat to a hungry lion. I think he'll find something -- some kind of key that we can try to take advantage of.

Whether we'll be able to execute or not, or what else happens in the game, nobody can say. I mean, if one team scores quick and tacks on defensive points quickly, it kind of all goes out the window.

And, as watching the replay of SB 36 on NFL Network reminded me, all that stuff kind of goes out the window when there's 10 minutes left anyway. At that point, both teams know what they're dealing with, and if the game is still close at that point, it's just about who makes one play than the other guy.

I don't really feel confident at all going into this game. But I do think we have a coaching edge, and I'm hoping that will be enough to keep it close late.

 

[mgteich]

I agree, except that I believe that we can survive four or five such breakdowns, if we don't have turnovers.

The answers to questions 1,2 & 3 had better result in "not a lot" or we will be singing a much different tune come Sunday at 10:00 PM.


IMHO - the ONLY way the Colts beat us would be through the air with several breakdowns resulting in TD's coming from Harrison, Wayne & Clark.