Deifying the Bolts...

[AzPatsFan]

A few points.

-The defense is solid. You'll just have to wait and see. They don't always shut down opposing offenses but they make enough plays to win. And this will be the first game since Game 1 of the regular season where we'll have everyone on our defense healthy and playing at the same time. You guys will be seeing a defense that hasn't actually been on the field this year.

-We gave up "over 300 points." That's still less than 19 per game. If we hold you guys to 19 points, guarantee we win.

-We have the guy widely considered the top backup running back in the NFL in Michael Turner. 502 yards and 6.3 YPC. So don't act like the sum of our running-game is LT because it's not.

-McCardell and Eric Parker will be healthy and that's all that matters. I'm laughing at your appraisal of our receivers. You'll see. These guys just needed to play when they aren't hobbled.

-Sacks don't do anything to opponent's passer rating. And a passer-rating of 77 is not a "fairly good QB" under any system. It's mediocre at best. Interceptions also are huge to passer rating and your defense had more interceptions.

-It doesn't matter how many passing TD's you've allowed. We had one player with more rushing TD's than any other team. When we're in the red-zone that'll be your focus.

The sacks have no part of the passer rating? Baloney. It is there in every other component. If he attempt to throw 100 times and is sacked ten times and completes 50% of his passes he has a 45 completions. That is not the same as a guy who doesn't get sacked in the 100 attempts and still completes 50% of his throws. Except that is 50 not 45 completions. It also changes his YPA, yardage, possibly TDs et cetera.

I'm not quibbling about your Red zone production. Its first and were only third. You had only two more red zone possessions tops but we were also tied for second in those possessions.

Its your red zone Defense I was critiquing. you don't stop many Teams when they get into your Red zone and and we do.

 

[Pujo]

The sacks have no part of the passer rating? Baloney.

I'm afraid he's right, a sack has no bearing on the passer rating. A sack is a negative rush and doesn't count as an attempt. The passer rating only cares about completions, yards, and touchdowns vs. attempts (when a quarterback actually makes a forward pass). A lateral wouldn't count against the passer rating, either, since it's technically not a pass attempt.

 

[DagoTom]

I'm afraid he's right, a sack has no bearing on the passer rating. A sack is a negative rush and doesn't count as an attempt. The passer rating only cares about completions, yards, and touchdowns vs. attempts (when a quarterback actually makes a forward pass). A lateral wouldn't count against the passer rating, either, since it's technically not a pass attempt.

Well, it depends on if you're using NET passing yards as your criteria for QB rating.

If a QB completes 20 out of 30 for 250 yards, and is sacked 5 times for -30 yards, the defense is credited as having given up 220 NET passing yards. But the QB doesn't get penalized for it and his passer rating is still based on the 250 yards.

But passing yards are really a very small part of the QBR. The biggest criteria are completion percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. Sacks don't count as an incomplete pass, they're sort of a non-play where offensive stats are concerned.

Our defense dropped a LOT of interceptions this year. Hell, Drayton Florence would probably have 15 interceptions if he held onto everything that a wide receiver would catch, so if there's a weakness in our secondary it's that. Florence catches the really tough interceptions and drops the ones right in his bread-basket. McCree also dropped about 5 interceptions this year...it's something that seems to infect our defense from last year. Guys are in the right spot but they only capitalize half as often as they should.

 

[psychoPat]

Well, AzPF sure knows how to chase away those pre-game worries!

Both Owsliek's points-for-and-against ratings
and Sagarin's transformer-blowing, mind-blowing ratings in other threads
signal that these teams are as dead-even as you could get.

Despite that we turned it over 5 times ... but still beat the Bears ...
i expect the outcome to reflect the turnover imbalance.
Fortunately for us, the Patriots have fumbled only once in the past 4 games
... Tommy throws only 1.25% interceptions in the playoffs
... and the Bolts secondary doesn't catch many at any time.

 

[DagoTom]

Well, AzPF sure knows how to chase away those pre-game worries!

Both Owsliek's points-for-and-against ratings
and Sagarin's transformer-blowing, mind-blowing ratings in other threads
signal that these teams are as dead-even as you could get.

Despite that we turned it over 5 times ... but still beat the Bears ...
i expect the outcome to reflect the turnover imbalance.
Fortunately for us, the Patriots have fumbled only once in the past 4 games
... Tommy throws only 1.25% interceptions in the playoffs
... and the Bolts secondary doesn't catch many at any time.

This I agree with. If the Bolts DB's have the opportunity for an interception they need to take advantage because Tom Brady doesn't throw many. It seems to me like most DB's catch about two-thirds of the balls that reasonably should be caught. Our DB's are probably closer to 40% this year, and that's been a problem. Yet they've had games where they took advantage of every opportunity so who knows.

 

[tomlinson21]

AzPatsFan....you make some strong points but the Chargers don't pay the media to glorify a good team like us. That's their job. Now you can either feed into it or not. As a fan...I really could care less.

Hey you guys are too spoiled...you guys got three rings. A dynasty....you probably heard that all the time with your team....what's the big deal???

 

[Miguel]

So what that REALLY says is, when an opponent passer did manage to throw the ball he was almost a superstar..

What quarterbacks have close to a 76.6 QB rating?? Eli Manning and Matt Hasselbeck who finished 18th and 19th in QB rating.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/leaders/NFL/PRAT/2006/regular

Were they almost superstars this year?? I do not think so.

The Chargers finished 11th in defensive passer rating. I am at a loss at how that is not a good stat.
The average quarterback facing them would have finished in the bottom half of quarterbacks.

 

[Miguel]

Doesn't he get tired after 16 games or more important in the 4th quarter? They do use Turner to give him a blow but not much; they do the same with the lead FB who gets some carries just like Heath Evans but as a ball carrier he is not as good; but as a lead blocker, he is the best in the League. Just ask antique Corey Dillon, who is only five years younger.

In some aspects think of the troika of Dillon, LM, and Faulk and roll them up into a single player and you get LT. ONE guy. ONE tired guy in the 4th. Dillon as power specialist is probably better at that then LT. Kevin as a pass catcher is probably better than LT in that specialty.

LT in 2 fewer years has more receptions, more receiving yards, more receiving TDs, more receiving first downs, more receptions for big plays (20 yards or more) than does Faulk.

LT is probably better than LM as a speed back. Is a tired LT better as speed back, than a fresh LM? .

How tired can LT be after a bye week??

LT led the league in 4th quarter rushing TDs with 10.
His YPC in the 4th quarter was 13th in the league, higher than the supposedly fresher LM??
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/STATS/NFL_LiveScores.htm?link=leaders
Mike Turner was 3rd.

 

[nukin]

How tired can LT be after a bye week??

LT led the league in 4th quarter rushing TDs with 10.
His YPC in the 4th quarter was 13th in the league, higher than the supposedly fresher LM??
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/STATS/NFL_LiveScores.htm?link=leaders
Mike Turner was 3rd.

LT has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.9
LM has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.5

That's not that big of a difference - half a yard? Throw in that LT had Double the rushes in the 4th quarter (83 to LM's 44) and one wonder's what LM would of done with 40 more rushes.

 

[Oswlek]

LT has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.9
LM has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.5

That's not that big of a difference - half a yard? Throw in that LT had Double the rushes in the 4th quarter (83 to LM's 44) and one wonder's what LM would of done with 40 more rushes.

I think the point is that Az went a little overboard in his posts. I actually agree with Miguel. It's hard to talk about LT being tired in the 4th when even then he has better numbers than any of NE's rushers.

Miguel has another good point about 77 QB rating not being great, although on that one I think both sides have a point. Sacks are not officially counted in the passer rating formula, but one would think that if a team has 61 sacks they must have a ton of other near-sacks. Those times when a QB gets the ball away under pressure is when ints are likely to happen. Also it logically follows that a QB under heavy pressure wouldn't have the greatest of comp % or that many passing TDs.

So I think that Az is selling LDT short by a long shot, I do think that SDs passer rating being average despite significant pressure being applied is indicative that they can be passed on. I think it also makes sense that if a QB can be kept away from pressure you would expect an improvement in their performance. SDs baseline is far higher than NE's and appears to be more dependent on pressure.

 

[tedy hagler]

The Bolts offense might belong in Olympus.

But the Bolts defense is like a Tijuana whore: solid build, says nasty things, bawdy & bad--but she will be scored on repeatedly by visitors from the dreaded Northern hinterlands.

 

[Flying Fungi]

The Bolts offense might belong in Olympus.

But the Bolts defense is like a Tijuana whore: solid build, says nasty things, bawdy & bad--but she will be scored on repeatedly by visitors from the dreaded Northern hinterlands.

a tijuana whore?

outstanding

 

[Flying Fungi]

hey flea--tell the skirts to get out of the jeep and push next time :singing:

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Nice post. Since Bolt fans are so proud of slinging around stats, it's interesting that there are several stats that reveal, hey the Bolts aren't all that great or invincible as their fans would think!

I know I love hearing from the Bolts fans that they are 14-2 and the Pats are 12-4 so really the game is a foregone conclusion. How quickly they forget that a 15-1 Colts team was bounced by the 11-5 Steelers last season!

Stats can easily deceive. And quite frankly the Bolts fans sound like they are trying to talk themselves into thinking they can win.

I think the only viable explanation why the Bolt fans are infesting our boards is that they have a psychological need to justify to us Pats fans why their team stands a chance of beating our Pats on Sunday.

Hush little Bolt fans it's gonna be alright. Brady "The Assassin" will kill your playoff dreams come Sunday. Sleep well now my little trolls!

Thank you VJC. Not to gang up on the Bolt fans. They are far better than the Bronco posters. But your post seems to me to be dead on correct.

I have said many times that Bolt fans have a reason to be excited. They had the best record in the league this year and LT. But they also had Merriman and being a dad, I cannot justify cheating on any level. I'm also a coach and if you don't come to play fair for your team, then don't come at all. Unfortunately the NFL doesn't adopt that thinking.

I just wanted to let you know that I enjoyed your post.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

The Bolts offense might belong in Olympus.

But the Bolts defense is like a Tijuana whore: solid build, says nasty things, bawdy & bad--but she will be scored on repeatedly by visitors from the dreaded Northern hinterlands.

Thanks Tedy...I literally burst out laughing when I read your post....

 

[AzPatsFan]

Well, it depends on if you're using NET passing yards as your criteria for QB rating.

If a QB completes 20 out of 30 for 250 yards, and is sacked 5 times for -30 yards, the defense is credited as having given up 220 NET passing yards. But the QB doesn't get penalized for it and his passer rating is still based on the 250 yards.

But passing yards are really a very small part of the QBR. The biggest criteria are completion percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. Sacks don't count as an incomplete pass, they're sort of a non-play where offensive stats are concerned.

Our defense dropped a LOT of interceptions this year. Hell, Drayton Florence ould probably have 15 interceptions if he held onto everything that a wide receiver would catch, so if there's a weakness in our secondary it's that. Florence catches the really tough interceptions and drops the ones right in his bread-basket. McCree also dropped about 5 interceptions this year...it's something that seems to infect our defense from last year. Guys are in the right spot but they only capitalize half as often as they should.

If receivers can't catch, you move them to Defensive back. Elementary coaching 101.

 

[bolts_fan]

LT has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.9
LM has a 4th Quarter YPC of 4.5

That's not that big of a difference - half a yard? Throw in that LT had Double the rushes in the 4th quarter (83 to LM's 44) and one wonder's what LM would of done with 40 more rushes.

If LM had twice the carries, his numbers would more than likely be worse.

It's actually much much more impressive than it seems for LT to have a higher YPC with almost twice as many carries. I'll let you think that one through for a bit before I explain it to you.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Thank you VJC. Not to gang up on the Bolt fans. They are far better than the Bronco posters. But your post seems to me to be dead on correct.

I have said many times that Bolt fans have a reason to be excited. They had the best record in the league this year and LT. But they also had Merriman and being a dad, I cannot justify cheating on any level. I'm also a coach and if you don't come to play fair for your team, then don't come at all. Unfortunately the NFL doesn't adopt that thinking.

I just wanted to let you know that I enjoyed your post.

I aim to please. Glad you enjoyed the post. I think it's pretty telling that once we start breaking down the stats all the Bolts fans can do is make broad sweeping statements and basically respond with "yeah but our team's gonna kick your team's butt cos we're better, yeah."

I also agree that cheating at any level is a disgrace to the game. I'm trying to lay off the Merriman steroids references but it becomes real hard to avoid it when they keep touting their "enhanced" player as the reason Brady will get killed on Sunday.

The Bolts offense might belong in Olympus.

But the Bolts defense is like a Tijuana whore: solid build, says nasty things, bawdy & bad--but she will be scored on repeatedly by visitors from the dreaded Northern hinterlands.

Lol. Funny stuff. Keep it coming!

 

[bolts_fan]

I aim to please. Glad you enjoyed the post. I think it's pretty telling that once we start breaking down the stats all the Bolts fans can do is make broad sweeping statements and basically respond with "yeah but our team's gonna kick your team's butt cos we're better, yeah."

I also agree that cheating at any level is a disgrace to the game. I'm trying to lay off the Merriman steroids references but it becomes real hard to avoid it when they keep touting their "enhanced" player as the reason Brady will get killed on Sunday.

LOL. Thanks for not beating up on the Bolts fans too much, but exactly which stats are you looking at? Because I can pull stats out of my ass too to show that the Chargers are better. But I do feel that the Chargers are better than the Patriots this year, but no matter what I do or what stats I show you, I won't change your mind. Why don't we just wait until after Sunday to see who's right?

 

[1BoltFan Here4Fun]

I aim to please. Glad you enjoyed the post. I think it's pretty telling that once we start breaking down the stats all the Bolts fans can do is make broad sweeping statements and basically respond with "yeah but our team's gonna kick your team's butt cos we're better, yeah."

I also agree that cheating at any level is a disgrace to the game. I'm trying to lay off the Merriman steroids references but it becomes real hard to avoid it when they keep touting their "enhanced" player as the reason Brady will get killed on Sunday.

I wonder if you can really find a post that says our "enhanced" player will kill Brady from somebody who's not just a troll. With a couple of trollish exceptions, this is one of the best threads I've seen on both forums. It seems that presenting facts isn't as easy as trolling.

You guys are being poorly represented in the SOSD forum. A new troll spins out every 15 minutes with the same tired drivel that has been hashed to death already. Frankly this is my last stop since nobody has anything new to say on any board.

AzPats - you have some nice analysis there and it is pretty fair. I think the one area where you got a bit homerish was in your analysis of the Chargers offensive line. We have a small center and perhaps our RT Olivea could be a bit nastier, but these guys produced the top running game in the NFL. LT doesn't have a rocket in his ass, he has to run through holes created by his line. These guys have a lot of pride and are going to lay wood on the Pats. They're going to win some and lose some.

Otherwise AzPats and Oswlek, you are my Pats posters of the week, good work on pretty fair analysis. You may redeem your prize in heaven.

The best analysis coming out of the media comes from Phil Simms. As he prepares to call the game, he's decided that these two teams play physical football and will not tire of the battle. Its going to be a slugfest and is too close for any of us to call. If I was a bettin man, I wouldn't lay cash on this game on ANY bet.

Under/Over ? Could be both a shootout or a defensive battle. Toss in a big play on special teams and it may be the difference in the game. One team may explode for 14 or 17 points and the other's doors could fall off. Who knows? Stats are too close to definitively call this game one way or the other.

Ah well, enjoy! I'm looking forward to seeing the world-class meltdown one of these boards are going to suffer.