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Deifying the Bolts...


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AzPatsFan

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The media is a herd pack. They rush to glorify the new and stampede to deify the latest cult figure, deifying the latest tin god, ignoring that every one has some elements of feet of clay.
The big things that the ignorant media has seized on are:

a) the great LT as a RB
b) the sixty one sacks the defense accumulated.
c) the receiving of TE Antonio Gates

Now these are certainly admirable but they are symptoms of problems and weaknesses as well.

Did you know that in spite of, and even allowing for the 61 sacks, the Bolts pass Defense is really mediocre? No, you'd never hear it from the asses of the media. The two best measures of a pass defense is the passer rating of the opponent's passers; and the number of points surrendered.

Good pass defenses like the Pats and Ravens make the opponent QBs look bad. These clubs had opponent passer ratings of 64 and 66 over the course of the season.

Bad teams let their cumulative composite opponent's QB passer rating look like the profile of a HOF passer. But the majority of teams very average to below average pass defenses, let the opponents cumulative passer rating look like just a fairly good starter. In the case of the Bolts they are one such team. Their opponent's passer rating is 77. And that is after including the 61 sacks... to drag it down.

So what that REALLY says is, when an opponent passer did manage to throw the ball he was almost a superstar. They don't get a lot of INTs either, in spite of the great sack totals. Its confirmed in the fact that the the Bolts still gave up over 300 points on Defense.

The most comparable team that had a similar opponent's passer rating and points allowed, is the awesome, powerful, dreaded ...Cleveland Browns! Do you fear the Browns Pass Defense? If you don't, then why fear the Bolts pass defense?

Lets turn to the run Defense.
The Chargers play a 3-4 but not a Patriots two-gap 3-4. Its much more similar to the Bltizburg Defense. The OLBs always blitz, and they depend on a good NT to slow down the run. Did the **** LeBeau Blitzburg defense stop the Pats? The Pittsburg Defense led the league in run Defense too. The Bolts run Defense actually is mediocre, like their pass defense.
They allow 4.2 YPC, in spite of the good NT Jamal Williams. Here is a potential weakness. Donnie Williams is good but old, and very small. He makes lots of tackles... 5 yards down field. That's why Schotty has been trying to get rid of him. The other ILB is a rotation with fading Godfrey who was talking of retirement the last two years, and raw youngster Cooper. Together they are only fair.

Their red zone Defense in a word sucks. Not surprising since they don't stop the pass, or run, in spite of the great pass rush.

The proof of the pudding is that they give up 4.2 YPC against the rush and over 300 points.

OFFENSE

Lets look at other potential weaknesses. The Bolts leading pass catcher is a TE. Seems to me, that when the Patriots started the season throwing to the TEs, everybody was *****ing that the WRs were no good. At least the Pats had the excuse that the receivers were all new, but such was not the case for the Bolts except that Vincent Jackson was a soph, who hadn't done much as a rookie. All the others were there for several years.

Now Jackson reminds me of Matt Jones or Doug Gabriel, a big receiver who is not very quick, but is big, and can run after he gets going. Gabriel in the few games he played for us, has the same number of receptions as Jackson has gotten all season. (mid 20s). So he is not someone to build a dependable third down conversion around, as he is not quick, and can't get easy separation. A nice complimentary receiver, though.

So who do the Bolts go to as their "goto" receiver. They leapt from obscurity to winning prominence, when they acquired old pro Keenan McCardell, when few wanted him a couple of years ago. For them, he immediately became the "goto" guy. The needed possession type to make the third down catch and move the chains.

And every one knew he was approaching the end even then over two years ago, but this year based on the passing stats and profile he has almost lost it. He is older than Troy Brown but plays almost all the downs, and still has fewer catches than part-timer, Troy. The Bolts passing game comes down to Gates (71), and LT (56), and occasional contributions from Jackson (mid 20s), and McCardell's (36), would be replacement, Eric Parker (48). LT is a good pass catcher, but no better and probably not as good a pass catcher as Faulk. In combo with Dillon they match LT's pass catching (43 + 19), just as they split time in the backfield.

Parker has been a mild disappointment, as Reche is proving to be better, but when McCardell hangs them up, he will probably come into his own.

But that 's next year, not now. The Bolts wanted him to replace McCardell this year and he hasn't, while McCardell's efforts have fallen way off, as he has gone over the hill and around the bend.

LT is great. LT is magnificent. LT is ONE guy.

Where the Patriots use three backs, splitting carries with Dillon, (power), LM (outside & speed) and Faulk (shifty and pass catching), keeping everyone fresh. The Bolts roll all that into ONE guy LT. Hallelujah !

Doesn't he get tired after 16 games or more important in the 4th quarter? They do use Turner to give him a blow but not much; they do the same with the lead FB who gets some carries just like Heath Evans but as a ball carrier he is not as good; but as a lead blocker, he is the best in the League. Just ask antique Corey Dillon, who is only five years younger.

In some aspects think of the troika of Dillon, LM, and Faulk and roll them up into a single player and you get LT. ONE guy. ONE tired guy in the 4th. Dillon as power specialist is probably better at that then LT. Kevin as a pass catcher is probably better than LT in that specialty. LT is probably better than LM as a speed back. Is a tired LT better as speed back, than a fresh LM?

The Bolts Offensive line is not great. Their OLT is a rookie who will be very good in a year or there, meanwhile he IS still a rookie. Do you think SeyMonsta might teach him a thing or two? Olivia is a RT that they have been trying to replace ever since they were forced to play him as a rook. Think of Brandon Gorin. Hardwick is a center no one picks for the pro bowl and a Koppen he ain't. Awesome O-line ain't it? In a word... NO!

The running game comes from LT's great talent and Lorenzo Neal's' lead blocking, IMO. Its also sort of confirmed by the fact that LT's yardage comes from running wide, to both sides, but not so much in the middle. They run him wide, Neal delivers a lead block and LT cuts off it. Neal usually outsizes the opponent's OLB by 25-30 pounds and just dominates. But not the case with the Pats. Neal has no size advantage at all; he will have to work much harder, and is no spring chicken in his late thirties. Might he just get tired as well in the 4th?

I'm not saying the Bolts are a poor team; but I am also not buying in to the effort to make them an '85 Bears club either!

And even I could build a game plan to use against them.
 
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On defense the stat that sticks out to me is :

TD/INT ratio (defense so TDs are bad, INTs are good).

SD : 19 TD / 16 INT.
NE : 10 TD / 22 INT

Whereas the Chargers have allowed 19% more TD than caused INTs, the Patriots have caused INTs 120% more than they've allowed TD.
 
Deifying the Bolts? Puhleeze!! Have you watched tv or listened to sports radio over the past couple of days? It's only Wednesday and already the experts are split 50/50 on who's gonna win.

They don't even give this season's statistics in justifying their pick of the Patriots over the Chargers. They just say "Belichick and Brady"... over "Marty and Rivers" They throw out all the stats of this season.. they ignore all of the Chargers supposed worthless statistics... and just go with the Genius and Mr. Clutch to "find some way of engineering the plan to stop this high-powered offense and explosive pass rush of the Chargers".

They completely ignore the fact that this same duo got pounded in Denver last year in the same scenario. Couldn't possibly happen this year because Marty doesn't win in the playoffs and Rivers is too young to play well.

So now who's the deity?
 
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A few points.

-The defense is solid. You'll just have to wait and see. They don't always shut down opposing offenses but they make enough plays to win. And this will be the first game since Game 1 of the regular season where we'll have everyone on our defense healthy and playing at the same time. You guys will be seeing a defense that hasn't actually been on the field this year.

-We gave up "over 300 points." That's still less than 19 per game. If we hold you guys to 19 points, guarantee we win.

-We have the guy widely considered the top backup running back in the NFL in Michael Turner. 502 yards and 6.3 YPC. So don't act like the sum of our running-game is LT because it's not.

-McCardell and Eric Parker will be healthy and that's all that matters. I'm laughing at your appraisal of our receivers. You'll see. These guys just needed to play when they aren't hobbled.

-Sacks don't do anything to opponent's passer rating. And a passer-rating of 77 is not a "fairly good QB" under any system. It's mediocre at best. Interceptions also are huge to passer rating and your defense had more interceptions.

-It doesn't matter how many passing TD's you've allowed. We had one player with more rushing TD's than any other team. When we're in the red-zone that'll be your focus.
 
Very good post, and very informative.

But,

I am not a statistical person. Not that stats dont tell something about a team, or a player, but in the end, it is 3 hours on the field that tells the story.

Stats are good, to a point, but I choose to consider those three playing hours that will tellthe REAL story.

There are many,many occasions that come up in the field of sports that completely defy statistics.

Stan, not being negative about your post./ Its well documented, and very imformative, but stats, to me, are one thing. Playing the game is another.

The best teams on paper arent always the best teams on the field.

I believe the Pats will win, and maybe even convincingly, but I believe it wil be because the coaching staff will do something that is not on paper.



3 hours playing time? I thought the game was only 60 minutes!?
 
3 hours playing time? I thought the game was only 60 minutes!?
60 minutes of clock translates to about 3 hours when you count time when the clock is stopped and in between periods.
 
Let me tell you what sticks out to me as a Chargers fan:

SD: Total Take-Aways 28 (16 Ints/12 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 15 (9 Ints/6 Fumbles) for a +13 net
NE: Total Take-Aways 35 (22 Ints/13 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 27 (12 Ints/15 Fumbles) for a +8 net

That's huge... clearly your D gets more Ints but your offense also gives the ball away much more readily and there in lies a difference that will affect the end result.

In terms of defense, depending on what you're looking at, we can rank anywhere... if you look at say, total team defensive efficiency, the Raiders rank higher than both SD and NE... that's right. So depending on what you're looking at in terms of defense, you can skew the picture anyway you want. (Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL+Statistics/Team+Efficiency/2006/17effc.htm?mode=de)

But you know what else is huge? We're #1 in red zone offense efficiency:

SD: #1 - Red zone pos. 62, 42 TD's, 17 FG's, 95.2% scoring (67.7% TD)
NE: #5 - Red zone pos. 60, 36 TD's, 17 FG's, 88.3% scoring (60.0% TD)

I like our offense vs. your defense and I like our defense vs. your offense. There's no doubt you have a strong defense, but for all that you've stated here, the Chargers defense isn't that bad either.

In truth, we really balance each other out quite a lot so really for me that turn-over differential is the difference maker.
 
60 minutes of clock translates to about 3 hours when you count time when the clock is stopped and in between periods.


Haha I know - I'm giving him a hard time :p
 
I totally agree with the over-hyping of the SD defense, but I think you went overboard on the offense.

LT is a better power back than Dillon and a better speed back than Maroney. I'm not sure how you could come to a different conclusion. I suppose that Faulk might be on LT's level as far as receivers out of the backfield go, but LT does bring the threat of the run when is there. Faulk doesn't.

Also, I agree that SD's WRs are nothing special, but circumstances helped push their receptions down. First, SD has been so spectacular at running that they didn't need to pass that much. Second, unlike NE where the TEs were the reception kings by default, Gates truly is a great receiver.
 
....... They throw out all the stats of this season.. they ignore all of the Chargers supposed worthless statistics... ....

If you want to talk stats
... it seems you ingor the stats presented earlier in this thread. No?
 
That's huge... clearly your D gets more Ints but your offense also gives the ball away much more readily and there in lies a difference that will affect the end result.
That appears to be fixed, I believe Dillon's fumble was our only turnover in the last four games. Fingers crossed on this one.


But you know what else is huge? We're #1 in red zone offense efficiency:

SD: #1 - Red zone pos. 62, 42 TD's, 17 FG's, 95.2% scoring (67.7% TD)
NE: #5 - Red zone pos. 60, 36 TD's, 17 FG's, 88.3% scoring (60.0% TD)
I hadn't see the numbers but that was predictable based on Tomlinson's TD total. Do you have the defensive red zone numbers by any chance ? I bet the Patriots are very high on those.
 
Nice post. Since Bolt fans are so proud of slinging around stats, it's interesting that there are several stats that reveal, hey the Bolts aren't all that great or invincible as their fans would think!

I know I love hearing from the Bolts fans that they are 14-2 and the Pats are 12-4 so really the game is a foregone conclusion. How quickly they forget that a 15-1 Colts team was bounced by the 11-5 Steelers last season!

Stats can easily deceive. And quite frankly the Bolts fans sound like they are trying to talk themselves into thinking they can win.

I think the only viable explanation why the Bolt fans are infesting our boards is that they have a psychological need to justify to us Pats fans why their team stands a chance of beating our Pats on Sunday.

Hush little Bolt fans it's gonna be alright. Brady "The Assassin" will kill your playoff dreams come Sunday. Sleep well now my little trolls! :D
 
Actually, I once figured it out, if you take the actual time that they PLAY, you know, the time during which the actual plays are being run, it comes down to about 10 minutes for offense, and 10 minutes for defense.

Each play, the actual running of the play, takes less than 10 second.

So, if a team averages, say 65 plays per game, that is 650 seconds, or 10.8 minutes of actual , physical play.

And, inb many cases,s teams dont run 65 plays, per game.

So, 10 minutes of actual play means that they are on the bench, or in the huddle, or on the line of scrimmage, without actually playing for about 50 of those 60 minutes.

Tough way to make a few million dollars, isnt it? :D


Wow... I never looked at it that way. I spose that could be true!
 
The first thing in building a game plan is identifying the weaknesses and strengths. The first post did that. How do you do something about it?

My first thought is that they appear to have two Willie McGinnests playing OLB. Great pass rushers. But Willie's weakness was as a pass defender. That was Phifer's specialty. So I would think quick passes over the pass rush into the vacated OLB hole might work.

Their ILBs are old and small. They give up lots of yards rushing. Even if they eventually make the tackle. Their NT, Williams is good and big but has lots of tackles,himself. It confirms that he plays as a penetrating NT much like Casey Hampton used to play in Pittsburgh. The Pats were successful (relatively), running into the line with Antowain and fooling him with a shifty Faulk. Same defensive philosophy as Pittsburgh, so same attack points, except that our RBs are betternow. Dillon is better than Antowain and the combo of LM & Faulk is better than Kevin alone. Plus the Bolts are not as good on Defesne agaisnt either the run or pass.

The Bolts allow their opponent passers to look like superstars when they aren't successful in sacking the QB. And for some strange reason they don't intercept very many passes. So throw quickly, and spread them out, as well as purposely picking on the Willie clones by throwing over them.

Nothing like making the OLBs look like fools to cool their Jets and pass rush Things th Pats do well like screens and WR gimmes. The Bolts secondary has good CBs, and average Safeties. That means TE seams should work too. We have the TE weapons other Teams didn't. Once again strength against weakness.

Lets turn to our Defense.

Thesis: their Oline is big and not too mobile at the tackles and out side of Goff their interior OLinemen are nothing to write home about. They run LT wide in back of Neal, and he cuts off a block or sees a gap. Expect they will continue. Does 8 man in th box help ? Not really. Gap control and taking on and Neutralizing the Neal lead block is key. IMO.

Our OLBs and DE must maintain gap control and our OLBs must fight off the lead block. Can we do it. A Cato June for the Colts would have little chance atan official 220 pounds (probaly 210-215), from being pounded into oblivion by Lorenzo. Our 250-260 pounders can balance and neutralize Neal if that is their assignment. Once again the Bolts head into a Pats strength that other clubs don't have. This time, strength against strength, and a draw in this case is a win. On adraw there is no hole and LT can't cut so the paly strings out to the sidelines. And you can keep the Safeties back as a second line of Defense to contain LT, if he does get by the first line.

We want to make sure that Jackson doesn't catch a long bomb. The Pats are in pretty good shape being able to play a good nickle and dime. In this case a quicker and faster safety may be a benefit against a big fast WR who just gather speed to get going. Could Hawkins actually be a benefit over having Harrison in this case?

Age has robbed Keenan of his danger. He'll still fool you but won't really hurt you anymore. Just make sure Parker doesn't either. Multiple DBacks is the solution I think. Lots of Nickle or Big nickle if Rodney is available.

What to do about Gates? The multiple DBacks should make the seams smaller for him to exploit, and the multiple backs can limit his big play catch and runs perhaps.

And finally what to do about LT the pass catcher? Once again multiple DBacks seems the solution in obvious situations. Other wise Tedy and Mike will have to prevent or disrupt his over the middle patterns on nominal running downs. And clean up the run into the line...

So in summary the Defense tries to slow down the LT runs wide by neutralizing the lead blocks of Lorenzo with their big OLBs. They DON'T play 8 in the box. In obvious passing situations, they go to multiple DBacks and they have the multiple CBs to do it, Scott, Mickens and even Hawkins an ex CB, add a lot of coverage ability without ceding any tackling ability except by Mickens. Hawk and Scott are good tackling CBs with size. and toughness. Sanders will be asked to be a sure tackler, not necessarily a good pass defender. Fortunately, that seems to be his strength.

It adds up to making Rivers excel against a multiple DBack secondary. The big weakness is LT over the middle on dink-dunk passes, with the standard 3-4-4 alignment.
 
Could Hawkins actually be a benefit over having Harrison in this case?
Hawkins is repacing Wilson, Sanders is replacing Harrison.

So in summary the Defense tries to slow down the LT runs wide by neutralizing the lead blocks of Lorenzo with their big OLBs. They DON'T play 8 in the box.
This is where Football Outsiders' stats get interesting :

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

They have Tomlinson ranked #1 of course. But they have him ranked 13th in Success Rate. Still good but not ungodly. Why ? Well this is their answer : "A player with higher VOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage".

So Tomlinson is fairly successful from a consistency standpoint but a STUD at breaking big plays.

Now, what does Belichick consistently say abot long runs ? They're the secondary's fault. In fact he specifically said this after Tomlinson's monster game against us in 2002 (after which season we got rid of most of our secondary).

So I am agreeing with you. If we can stop him a decent amount playing straight up, why add the extra risk of a big play by jamming more guys up near the line. Let the front seven do it's thing and make DAMN sure there's enough in the secondary to stop him when he gets through and limit the long run to 25 yards, not 65 yards.
 
if feel this D game plan might be somewaht similar to the one against vince young
or michael vick
let LT try and get his yards up the middle and control the edges..
colvin and TBC need to have a huge game for us IMO
 
Let me tell you what sticks out to me as a Chargers fan:

SD: Total Take-Aways 28 (16 Ints/12 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 15 (9 Ints/6 Fumbles) for a +13 net
NE: Total Take-Aways 35 (22 Ints/13 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 27 (12 Ints/15 Fumbles) for a +8 net

That's huge... clearly your D gets more Ints but your offense also gives the ball away much more readily and there in lies a difference that will affect the end result.

In terms of defense, depending on what you're looking at, we can rank anywhere... if you look at say, total team defensive efficiency, the Raiders rank higher than both SD and NE... that's right. So depending on what you're looking at in terms of defense, you can skew the picture anyway you want. (Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL+Statistics/Team+Efficiency/2006/17effc.htm?mode=de)

But you know what else is huge? We're #1 in red zone offense efficiency:

SD: #1 - Red zone pos. 62, 42 TD's, 17 FG's, 95.2% scoring (67.7% TD)
NE: #5 - Red zone pos. 60, 36 TD's, 17 FG's, 88.3% scoring (60.0% TD)

I like our offense vs. your defense and I like our defense vs. your offense. There's no doubt you have a strong defense, but for all that you've stated here, the Chargers defense isn't that bad either.

In truth, we really balance each other out quite a lot so really for me that turn-over differential is the difference maker.

Thats why they play the game.

The only reason our turnover figures are not humongous and only good, is that there were lots of fumbles by youngsters making youngster mistakes. To be fair,also by old pros who don't have a profile or history of turnovers. The INT figures are real good, OTOH and much more dangerous.

I will now scare you with a trend line stat:

Brady has a 63% completion percentage and a good but not great passer rating. Over the first half dozen games when he had to ask the names of the receivers reporting into the huddle, he was completing only slightly over 50% To get to his historical average of 62% he had to have a second half of greater than 70+% with his newcomers. Meanwhile Rivers has no new receivers, and has tailed off as the season progressed and opposing DCs started to get a "book" on the new QB.

so Brady is getting really comfortable with his newcomers and Rivers is a "book that has been read".
:bricks:
 
Actually, I once figured it out, if you take the actual time that they PLAY, you know, the time during which the actual plays are being run, it comes down to about 10 minutes for offense, and 10 minutes for defense.

Each play, the actual running of the play, takes less than 10 second.

So, if a team averages, say 65 plays per game, that is 650 seconds, or 10.8 minutes of actual , physical play.

And, inb many cases,s teams dont run 65 plays, per game.

So, 10 minutes of actual play means that they are on the bench, or in the huddle, or on the line of scrimmage, without actually playing for about 50 of those 60 minutes.

Tough way to make a few million dollars, isnt it? :D
Your analasys is dead-on. A friend of mine used to announce for Creighton University football games years ago, he said the average football game has 7-12 minutes of action.
 
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