Deifying the Bolts...

[tedy hagler]

Gracias, as they say in TJ.

Thanks Tedy...I literally burst out laughing when I read your post....

 

[dngerhiboltage]

The media is a herd pack. They rush to glorify the new and stampede to deify the latest cult figure, deifying the latest tin god, ignoring that every one has some elements of feet of clay.
The big things that the ignorant media has seized on are:

a) the great LT as a RB
b) the sixty one sacks the defense accumulated.
c) the receiving of TE Antonio Gates

Now these are certainly admirable but they are symptoms of problems and weaknesses as well.

Did you know that in spite of, and even allowing for the 61 sacks, the Bolts pass Defense is really mediocre? No, you'd never hear it from the asses of the media. The two best measures of a pass defense is the passer rating of the opponent's passers; and the number of points surrendered.

Good pass defenses like the Pats and Ravens make the opponent QBs look bad. These clubs had opponent passer ratings of 64 and 66 over the course of the season.

Bad teams let their cumulative composite opponent's QB passer rating look like the profile of a HOF passer. But the majority of teams very average to below average pass defenses, let the opponents cumulative passer rating look like just a fairly good starter. In the case of the Bolts they are one such team. Their opponent's passer rating is 77. And that is after including the 61 sacks... to drag it down.

So what that REALLY says is, when an opponent passer did manage to throw the ball he was almost a superstar. They don't get a lot of INTs either, in spite of the great sack totals. Its confirmed in the fact that the the Bolts still gave up over 300 points on Defense.

The most comparable team that had a similar opponent's passer rating and points allowed, is the awesome, powerful, dreaded ...Cleveland Browns! Do you fear the Browns Pass Defense? If you don't, then why fear the Bolts pass defense?

Lets turn to the run Defense.
The Chargers play a 3-4 but not a Patriots two-gap 3-4. Its much more similar to the Bltizburg Defense. The OLBs always blitz, and they depend on a good NT to slow down the run. Did the **** LeBeau Blitzburg defense stop the Pats? The Pittsburg Defense led the league in run Defense too. The Bolts run Defense actually is mediocre, like their pass defense.
They allow 4.2 YPC, in spite of the good NT Jamal Williams. Here is a potential weakness. Donnie Williams is good but old, and very small. He makes lots of tackles... 5 yards down field. That's why Schotty has been trying to get rid of him. The other ILB is a rotation with fading Godfrey who was talking of retirement the last two years, and raw youngster Cooper. Together they are only fair.

Their red zone Defense in a word sucks. Not surprising since they don't stop the pass, or run, in spite of the great pass rush.

The proof of the pudding is that they give up 4.2 YPC against the rush and over 300 points.

OFFENSE

Lets look at other potential weaknesses. The Bolts leading pass catcher is a TE. Seems to me, that when the Patriots started the season throwing to the TEs, everybody was *****ing that the WRs were no good. At least the Pats had the excuse that the receivers were all new, but such was not the case for the Bolts except that Vincent Jackson was a soph, who hadn't done much as a rookie. All the others were there for several years.

Now Jackson reminds me of Matt Jones or Doug Gabriel, a big receiver who is not very quick, but is big, and can run after he gets going. Gabriel in the few games he played for us, has the same number of receptions as Jackson has gotten all season. (mid 20s). So he is not someone to build a dependable third down conversion around, as he is not quick, and can't get easy separation. A nice complimentary receiver, though.

So who do the Bolts go to as their "goto" receiver. They leapt from obscurity to winning prominence, when they acquired old pro Keenan McCardell, when few wanted him a couple of years ago. For them, he immediately became the "goto" guy. The needed possession type to make the third down catch and move the chains.

And every one knew he was approaching the end even then over two years ago, but this year based on the passing stats and profile he has almost lost it. He is older than Troy Brown but plays almost all the downs, and still has fewer catches than part-timer, Troy. The Bolts passing game comes down to Gates (71), and LT (56), and occasional contributions from Jackson (mid 20s), and McCardell's (36), would be replacement, Eric Parker (48). LT is a good pass catcher, but no better and probably not as good a pass catcher as Faulk. In combo with Dillon they match LT's pass catching (43 + 19), just as they split time in the backfield.

Parker has been a mild disappointment, as Reche is proving to be better, but when McCardell hangs them up, he will probably come into his own.

But that 's next year, not now. The Bolts wanted him to replace McCardell this year and he hasn't, while McCardell's efforts have fallen way off, as he has gone over the hill and around the bend.

LT is great. LT is magnificent. LT is ONE guy.

Where the Patriots use three backs, splitting carries with Dillon, (power), LM (outside & speed) and Faulk (shifty and pass catching), keeping everyone fresh. The Bolts roll all that into ONE guy LT. Hallelujah !

Doesn't he get tired after 16 games or more important in the 4th quarter? They do use Turner to give him a blow but not much; they do the same with the lead FB who gets some carries just like Heath Evans but as a ball carrier he is not as good; but as a lead blocker, he is the best in the League. Just ask antique Corey Dillon, who is only five years younger.

In some aspects think of the troika of Dillon, LM, and Faulk and roll them up into a single player and you get LT. ONE guy. ONE tired guy in the 4th. Dillon as power specialist is probably better at that then LT. Kevin as a pass catcher is probably better than LT in that specialty. LT is probably better than LM as a speed back. Is a tired LT better as speed back, than a fresh LM?

The Bolts Offensive line is not great. Their OLT is a rookie who will be very good in a year or there, meanwhile he IS still a rookie. Do you think SeyMonsta might teach him a thing or two? Olivia is a RT that they have been trying to replace ever since they were forced to play him as a rook. Think of Brandon Gorin. Hardwick is a center no one picks for the pro bowl and a Koppen he ain't. Awesome O-line ain't it? In a word... NO!

The running game comes from LT's great talent and Lorenzo Neal's' lead blocking, IMO. Its also sort of confirmed by the fact that LT's yardage comes from running wide, to both sides, but not so much in the middle. They run him wide, Neal delivers a lead block and LT cuts off it. Neal usually outsizes the opponent's OLB by 25-30 pounds and just dominates. But not the case with the Pats. Neal has no size advantage at all; he will have to work much harder, and is no spring chicken in his late thirties. Might he just get tired as well in the 4th?

I'm not saying the Bolts are a poor team; but I am also not buying in to the effort to make them an '85 Bears club either!

And even I could build a game plan to use against them.

Good Lord! Do you have a job to have the time to write a post that looks like a 2,000 page novel about our defense. Get a life and get out of the house sometimes, sunlight is good for u...LOL

 

[AzPatsFan]

What quarterbacks have close to a 76.6 QB rating?? Eli Manning and Matt Hasselbeck who finished 18th and 19th in QB rating.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/leaders/NFL/PRAT/2006/regular

Were they almost superstars this year?? I do not think so.

The Chargers finished 11th in defensive passer rating. I am at a loss at how that is not a good stat.
The average quarterback facing them would have finished in the bottom half of quarterbacks.

Miquel,

I respect your opinion highly. I never said a PR of 77 is a Superstar passer raring. Drew Bledsoe's lifetime rating in only in the low 80s not much different and he's not a bum as a QB, even in the twilight of his career. And I'm sure HOF QB Joe Namath's career PR was even lower.

Thank You for finding some QBs with numbers like that. The two guys you used as an example Eli Manning & Matt Hassellbeck are Playoff QBs. They played well enough to get their teams into the playoffs and their teams are not teams like the '63 Bears or 2000 Ravens who got there, while dragging their QB along and in spite of them.

However, I don't think any QB with a mid 60s figure, or lower, has ever done anything but drag his team down to a losing record.

If the Bolts composite opponent PR is that of a pair of playoff QB's PR ratings, then their pass defense can't be very good. That's my only point.

That's all I'm saying. There is a difference from QB play good enough to get a team to the playoffs, and just terrible QB play.

 

[BajaBolt]

If you want to talk stats
... it seems you ingor the stats presented earlier in this thread. No?

The stats presented in the original post are, of course, skewed to paint a favorable picture for your side. When you lead the league in scoring, you are also going to give up your fair share of points. Sure, the bolts have weaknesses, so do all NFL teams. The fact remains we won 14 games and lost 2. You Patriot fans should know a lot about just winning, whether if it's by a vinatieri field goal or a blowout. Stats get thrown out the window when you win.

One second you guys downplay the fact we are sending 9 pro-bowlers to Hawaii, then you bring up all these stats to say why you're going to win. Numbers are numbers, but they can be applied in all sorts of funny ways to lead you to weird conclusions, such as LT not being as good as your three-headed monster running attack. You kind of lost me with that one.

If you want to look at the stats, they show two very closely matched teams. We have the better offense, you have the better defense. We have the better athletes, you have the more proven post-season schemes. You're beatable, we're beatable. It should be a good, well-fought game. Just be careful about how you want to use stats to justify why we are or are not a good team or defense. We'll give up some points, but we will also be a pain in the ass.

Manning had all the stats in the world, but it didn't stop you guys from creaming him in the past. San Diego's Defense isn't completely stat pretty, but they are a pretty nasty group when they get going. We'll settle in on Sunday.

 

[Miguel]

Miquel,

I respect your opinion highly. I never said a PR of 77 is a Superstar passer raring.

I never said that you said that a PR of 77 is a superstar passer rating. You qualified your use of the word superstar with the adjective almost. I did the same.

So the Chargers' pass defense is not very good. Is the vast majority of the media saying that it is?? From what I have read, the Charger's pass defense is considered to be good, a fair judgement. The Chargers do not need a very good pass defense to beat the Patriots. The Jets, Dolphins, and the Colts all have worse defensive passer ratings than does the Chargers. The question is not whether or not the Chargers have a very good pass defense. It should be how does the Chargers' pass defense matches up against the Pats. A common thread in the Jets/Colts/Dolphins losses is how those teams were able to successfully pressure Brady. What do the Chargers very well?? Pressure the QB. You call it deifying. I call it recognition of the obvious - another media trait.

Also, I will let others decide if the Browns are indeed the most comparable team to the Chargers in terms of defensive passer rating and points allowed.
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=999&Category=2
http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-SCORING/2006/regular?sort_col_1=3

That conclusion is a STRETCH to me since the Chargers finished 7th in points allowed and the Browns, 22nd. Denver, IMO, is the most comparable team to the Chargers in regards to those two stats.

 

[Kasmir]

As regular denizens of this board can attest to, I like to use the Football Outsiders stats rather than the official NFL stats, because they are compiled per play and adjusted for opponent strength.

What do they say about San Diego's defense?

SD's pass defense is not bad, with an 11th ranked seasonal DVOA of -3.2%. It's actually SD's rush defense that has been their weakness, with a 22nd ranked DVOA of +1.5%. Altogether the SD defense is 16th ranked at +4.2%, i.e. mediocre. Since their VOA was -5.1%, the disparity between NFL rankings and FO's is probably attributable to SD struggling recently with crappy teams.

The SD fans on this board have implicitly conceded this by talking about how much better their defense will be now that they've got everybody healthy. Weighted DVOA (+4.2%) vs unweighted (-1.1%) does indeed indicate the SD defense got worse as the season progressed. So SD may indeed need it's injured players back to be competitive on defense.

In contrast, the Pats defense has been getting steadily better. Weighted DVOA after last week's game is now -13.4%, vs the unweighted seasonal DVOA of -8.4%.

Overall, the Pats are now the #2 ranked weighted DVOA team at +30.1%. SD is 4th ranked at +24.9%.

The #2 SD offense at +23.4% vs the #5 NE defense at -13.4% represents a 10% advantage. But the #7 NE offense at +12.5% vs the (now) #17 SD defense at +4.1% is a 16.6% advantage.

So for what these stats are worth -- and they're certainly worth more than the official NFL stats -- expect both offenses to move the ball, the Pats a little more easily.

BTW the SD special teams are a little better than NE's: 4th ranked at +5.6% vs 7th ranked at +4.1% for a 1.5% advantage to SD.

Of course no statistical analysis can capture match up advantages, let alone the luck involved in the ebb and flow of a game. But the FO system which looks at per play performance weighted by opponent, says NE has been a little stronger, and has been increasing its advantage over the course of the season.

Maybe SD really does need all it's players rested and back from injury.

BTW, SD intruders, I'm not going to respond to any questions about Football Outsider's methodologies, other than to point you to their web site:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/09/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4806/

 

[Kasmir]

Let me tell you what sticks out to me as a Chargers fan:

SD: Total Take-Aways 28 (16 Ints/12 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 15 (9 Ints/6 Fumbles) for a +13 net
NE: Total Take-Aways 35 (22 Ints/13 Fumbles) and Total Give-Away 27 (12 Ints/15 Fumbles) for a +8 net

That's huge... clearly your D gets more Ints but your offense also gives the ball away much more readily and there in lies a difference that will affect the end result.

In terms of defense, depending on what you're looking at, we can rank anywhere... if you look at say, total team defensive efficiency, the Raiders rank higher than both SD and NE... that's right. So depending on what you're looking at in terms of defense, you can skew the picture anyway you want. (Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL+Statistics/Team+Efficiency/2006/17effc.htm?mode=de)

But you know what else is huge? We're #1 in red zone offense efficiency:

SD: #1 - Red zone pos. 62, 42 TD's, 17 FG's, 95.2% scoring (67.7% TD)
NE: #5 - Red zone pos. 60, 36 TD's, 17 FG's, 88.3% scoring (60.0% TD)

I like our offense vs. your defense and I like our defense vs. your offense. There's no doubt you have a strong defense, but for all that you've stated here, the Chargers defense isn't that bad either.

In truth, we really balance each other out quite a lot so really for me that turn-over differential is the difference maker.

The problem with turnovers as a predictor is that they tend to regress to the mean for all teams, i.e there's a lot of luck involved, particularly with fumbles. The Pats has a bad streak of turnovers (fumbles) that stopped in the last 4 games (fortunately).

That said, nothing affects the outcome of a football game more than the turn overs that actually happen during the game. It's just very difficult to predict.

And you are aware that Tom Brady holds the all-time NFL post-season record for lowest interception percentage?

 

[abyzmul]

As regular denizens of this board can attest to, I like to use the Football Outsiders stats rather than the official NFL stats, because they are compiled per play and adjusted for opponent strength.

What do they say about San Diego's defense?

SD's pass defense is not bad, with an 11th ranked seasonal DVOA of -3.2%. It's actually SD's rush defense that has been their weakness, with a 22nd ranked DVOA of +1.5%. Altogether the SD defense is 16th ranked at +4.2%, i.e. mediocre. Since their VOA was -5.1%, the disparity between NFL rankings and FO's is probably attributable to SD struggling recently with crappy teams.

The SD fans on this board have implicitly conceded this by talking about how much better their defense will be now that they've got everybody healthy. Weighted DVOA (+4.2%) vs unweighted (-1.1%) does indeed indicate the SD defense got worse as the season progressed. So SD may indeed need it's injured players back to be competitive on defense.

In contrast, the Pats defense has been getting steadily better. Weighted DVOA after last week's game is now -13.4%, vs the unweighted seasonal DVOA of -8.4%.

Overall, the Pats are now the #2 ranked weighted DVOA team at +30.1%. SD is 4th ranked at +24.9%.

The #2 SD offense at +23.4% vs the #5 NE defense at -13.4% represents a 10% advantage. But the #7 NE offense at +12.5% vs the (now) #17 SD defense at +4.1% is a 16.6% advantage.

So for what these stats are worth -- and they're certainly worth more than the official NFL stats -- expect both offenses to move the ball, the Pats a little more easily.

BTW the SD special teams are a little better than NE's: 4th ranked at +5.6% vs 7th ranked at +4.1% for a 1.5% advantage to SD.

Of course no statistical analysis can capture match up advantages, let alone the luck involved in the ebb and flow of a game. But the FO system which looks at per play performance weighted by opponent, says NE has been a little stronger, and has been increasing its advantage over the course of the season.

Maybe SD really does need all it's players rested and back from injury.

BTW, SD intruders, I'm not going to respond to any questions about Football Outsider's methodologies, other than to point you to their web site:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/09/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4806/

the statistics you're looking at are not reflective of the team that is playing on the field on sunday. the chargers were riddled with injuries throughout the year but are at full strength coming into sunday. you said it towards the end: "Maybe SD really does need all it's players rested and back from injury."

i'd suggest throwing out all of the skewed statistics that many other patriot "fans" around here keep spinning to fit their needs. the data can be manipulated, it's not that difficult to find a formula which ranks your team as having an advantage. i'm sure BB doesn't care about the stats from players who won't be on the field. he only cares about who's going to make a difference in this game.

 

[Kasmir]

the statistics you're looking at are not reflective of the team that is playing on the field on sunday. the chargers were riddled with injuries throughout the year but are at full strength coming into sunday. you said it towards the end: "Maybe SD really does need all it's players rested and back from injury."

i'd suggest throwing out all of the skewed statistics that many other patriot "fans" around here keep spinning to fit their needs. the data can be manipulated, it's not that difficult to find a formula which ranks your team as having an advantage. i'm sure BB doesn't care about the stats from players who won't be on the field. he only cares about who's going to make a difference in this game.

If it's not that difficult to find a respectable 3rd party statistical system that shows a significantly different result, please do so. Of course, as I did, refraining from "skewed statistics", "spun" or otherwise "manipulated". With the teams not having played each other or many common opponents, statistical comparisons are particularly interesting. What else do we have to go on other than hot air?

Oh, and here's another for you: Troy Aikman's system also rates the Pats as (slightly) better than the Bolts. Indeed he has the Pats as the #1 team overall at 168.3 and the Bolts #2 at 168.0, i.e. a statistical dead heat:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9905391

I don't like his system as much as the Football Outsider's, as it's drive based rather than play based, doesn't adjust for strength of opposition, and neglects special teams, but it's the 2nd one I tried, and it's IMO superior to the NFL rankings.. He has the Chargers defense 12th ranked, BTW. C'mon, as you said, it's easy: your turn.

Or maybe your hope on defense really comes down to anticipated improvement from returning players.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I wonder if you can really find a post that says our "enhanced" player will kill Brady from somebody who's not just a troll. With a couple of trollish exceptions, this is one of the best threads I've seen on both forums. It seems that presenting facts isn't as easy as trolling.

You guys are being poorly represented in the SOSD forum. A new troll spins out every 15 minutes with the same tired drivel that has been hashed to death already. Frankly this is my last stop since nobody has anything new to say on any board.

AzPats - you have some nice analysis there and it is pretty fair. I think the one area where you got a bit homerish was in your analysis of the Chargers offensive line. We have a small center and perhaps our RT Olivea could be a bit nastier, but these guys produced the top running game in the NFL. LT doesn't have a rocket in his ass, he has to run through holes created by his line. These guys have a lot of pride and are going to lay wood on the Pats. They're going to win some and lose some.

Otherwise AzPats and Oswlek, you are my Pats posters of the week, good work on pretty fair analysis. You may redeem your prize in heaven.

The best analysis coming out of the media comes from Phil Simms. As he prepares to call the game, he's decided that these two teams play physical football and will not tire of the battle. Its going to be a slugfest and is too close for any of us to call. If I was a bettin man, I wouldn't lay cash on this game on ANY bet.

Under/Over ? Could be both a shootout or a defensive battle. Toss in a big play on special teams and it may be the difference in the game. One team may explode for 14 or 17 points and the other's doors could fall off. Who knows? Stats are too close to definitively call this game one way or the other.

Ah well, enjoy! I'm looking forward to seeing the world-class meltdown one of these boards are going to suffer.

Thank You. You're a Gentleman and a Scholar; too basd there are so few of us.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The only corrections Ii will take is Donnie Edwards versus my incorrect Donnie Williams. Y'all knew who I meant. And its still true that Schootty has been trying to get rid of him in spite of his tackle stats. He's just too small for Phillip's 3-4.

Hardwick was as phony a probowl pick as was Kassim. Herd think. I'm glad your fans having something to cheer about for a change, stuffed the ballot boxes for your team's players for the probowl.

Your rookie OLT will be going against the best Defensive linemen in the League and who has never not been All Pro. Unlike most times, your big OLT has no size advantage and he can't get by, trying to play as if he is a fairly mobile RT dominating little guys. Its learn-a-lesson time.

I never said that Vincent Jackson didn't have speed; what I said is he is like Matt Jones, who is much faster at 4.35. Its just that they have no big burst and must gather speed as they run. That's typical of long legged striders; fast but not quick...

I respect Keenan and said so. But time and age robs every man. Father Time has made him a shadow of his former self...

Tell me if I'm wrong that Godfrey hasn't been contemplating retirement of two years or more. The middle of their run defense is not great. 4.2 YPC.

 

[Brownfan80]

If it's not that difficult to find a respectable 3rd party statistical system that shows a significantly different result, please do so. Of course, as I did, refraining from "skewed statistics", "spun" or otherwise "manipulated". With the teams not having played each other or many common opponents, statistical comparisons are particularly interesting. What else do we have to go on other than hot air?

Oh, and here's another for you: Troy Aikman's system also rates the Pats as (slightly) better than the Bolts. Indeed he has the Pats as the #1 team overall at 168.3 and the Bolts #2 at 168.0, i.e. a statistical dead heat:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9905391

I don't like his system as much as the Football Outsider's, as it's drive based rather than play based, doesn't adjust for strength of opposition, and neglects special teams, but it's the 2nd one I tried, and it's IMO superior to the NFL rankings.. He has the Chargers defense 12th ranked, BTW. C'mon, as you said, it's easy: your turn.

Or maybe your hope on defense really comes down to anticipated improvement from returning players.

The more I read of you, Kasmir, the more I admire your style. Very cool, very collected, and very well informed. If only we all could argue our points in such a calm manner.. The board would be better off.

 

[Oswlek]

The more I read of you, Kasmir, the more I admire your style. Very cool, very collected, and very well informed. If only we all could argue our points in such a calm manner.. The board would be better off.

STFU!!!!!!

Trounced foool!!!! HA HA HA! Welcome to my sig!!!

 

[nickelbolt]

The media is a herd pack. They rush to glorify the new and stampede to deify the latest cult figure, deifying the latest tin god, ignoring that every one has some elements of feet of clay.
The big things that the ignorant media has seized on are:

a) the great LT as a RB
b) the sixty one sacks the defense accumulated.
c) the receiving of TE Antonio Gates


I'm not saying the Bolts are a poor team; but I am also not buying in to the effort to make them an '85 Bears club either!

And even I could build a game plan to use against them.

So much for the media "deifying" the bolts... after nearly a full week of media banter... show me where the overwhelming "behold the glory of the Chargers" articles are.

Like I said earlier in this thread. It's at least 50/50 across the board as far as predictions go. Would you agree? Or do you need to compose another list of reasons why the Patriots are still considered overwhelming underdogs?

I am so ready for this one to get started. I just wanna see exactly where my team stands in the grand scheme of things.

Now, if you'll excuse me... I need to go kneel before my Tomlinson Shrine and pray that Marty doesn't F**k this thing up.