Curran: Pats $18 to $20 Million under cap

[Ring 6]

I think this can become a big concern. There have been years when the Patriots cash has been well over the cap and years where it has been far under, even when they are up against the cap.
I forsee a serious possibility that teams are going to be in a situation where it will be difficult, if not impossible to get up to the cash floor without exceeding the cap.
10% difference isnt much when you start looking at signing bonus amortizaion and dead money.

Here is an example. The Jets per Jetscap.com are in the following situation:

They are at about 120 mill right now.
That is made up of
86 mill of salary, roster and workout bonusses
10 mill of dead money
24 mil of signing bonus amortization.

They have 57 players signed but this only counts the top 51.

To make it easier, lets say the cap will be 130,000,000 (its about the same effect but this eliminates the step of cutting players)
That means there would be a cash floor of 117mill if 90% is correct.

They would need to spend 31,000,000 in cash but only use up 10,000,000 of cap. That may be close to impossible.
I imagine it could be done with large signing bonusses, but here is the rub.
Out of those 57 players I count over 25 who were not on the roster last year.
That means they need to sign essentially all of their depth in addition to some starters. To need to spend $3 of cash for every $1 of cap is not only going to be extremely difficult, but then next year they will carry forward all of that bonus amortization and it will be even harder to reach the cash floor without exceeding the cap.
This is a brand new concept and I can't be sure I understand it correctly, so please weigh in if I am missing something.

 

[mgteich]

I think that the biggest concern should be that we don't know the details of the mechanics of the new CBA. The owners and players are not signing a document with the kind of problem that you are suggesting. I agree that a 90% CASH floor, with no adjustments and exceptions is unworkable.

I think this can become a big concern.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Andrew Brandt says the cap will be $120 (period) and the $3M will be a similar to a mid level exemption in the NBA for this season only. What it feels like is meaningless from that standpoint. So the cash floor will be $108M. That floor will be assessed over a three year window/period as well I believe, so teams can still be over and under as long as they average spending 90% cash over 3 year periods. The league as a whole reportedly will have to spend 99% of cap in cash, but with no limit on cap over cash for those who have it like Snyder and Jerry that will help average out those who don't. There may even be language that stipulates that as long as the league as a whole hits the 99% mark the individual teams don't get penalized in any way if they don't.

And add $10M to the JETS cap and cash since the guy who keeps that page has also chosen to discount their franchise tagged LB...

And as DB pointed out to me in another thread, add in Revis $18M option bonus and Mangold's $9M supercede bonus which the JETScap guy doesn't account for in his cash calculations (although he clearly states Revis option has been calculated/amortized in for cap purposes - not sure Mangolds has though).

 

[Ring 6]

Andrew Brandt says the cap will be $120 (period) and the $3M will be a similar to a mid level exemption in the NBA for this season only. What it feels like is meaningless from that standpoint. So the cash floor will be $108M. That floor will be assessed over a three year window/period as well I believe, so teams can still be over and under as long as they average spending 90% cash over 3 year periods. The league as a whole reportedly will have to spend 99% of cap in cash, but with no limit on cap over cash for those who have it like Snyder and Jerry that will help average out those who don't. There may even be language that stipulates that as long as the league as a whole hits the 99% mark the individual teams don't get penalized in any way if they don't.

And add $10M to the JETS cap and cash since the guy who keeps that page has also chosen to discount their franchise tagged LB...

And as DB pointed out to me in another thread, add in Revis $18M option bonus and Mangold's $9M supercede bonus which the JETScap guy doesn't account for in his cash calculations (although he clearly states Revis option has been calculated/amortized in for cap purposes - not sure Mangolds has though).

The 3 year average makes a lot of sense.

I did include Harris at 10mill in my numbers.

As far as Revis, if there is a 3 year averaging then the cash isnt as big an issue.

Its safe to say that the Jets AT the cap, which less than 30 players signed that aren't future contracts after the season or practice squad guys, if they try to keep any of Edwards, Holmes, Cromartie, Ellis etc they will have horrendous depth.

 

[BlueThunder]

The 3 year average makes a lot of sense.

I did include Harris at 10mill in my numbers.

As far as Revis, if there is a 3 year averaging then the cash isnt as big an issue.

Its safe to say that the Jets AT the cap, which less than 30 players signed that aren't future contracts after the season or practice squad guys, if they try to keep any of Edwards, Holmes, Cromartie, Ellis etc they will have horrendous depth.

You KNOW they will try to keep who they can and Dam the Depth issue.....

 

[Ring 6]

You KNOW they will try to keep who they can and Dam the Depth issue.....

But they still cant keep much, being over the cap to begin with.
That is without Holmes, Edwards, Smith, Cromartie, Woody, Ellis, Taylor, Gholston(lol), Jenkins, Richardson, Pool, Smith, Coleman, Hunter, Ihedigbo, Pryce.
That is an awful lot of players and production to replace with no cap room for an 11-5 team.

 

[BlueThunder]

But they still cant keep much, being over the cap to begin with.
That is without Holmes, Edwards, Smith, Cromartie, Woody, Ellis, Taylor, Gholston(lol), Jenkins, Richardson, Pool, Smith, Coleman, Hunter, Ihedigbo, Pryce.
That is an awful lot of players and production to replace with no cap room for an 11-5 team.

Jet fans expect King Rex to make Chicken Salad out of Chicken sh*t....

It should be fun watching them implode this coming season....

 

[Deus Irae]

I share your wishful thinking with the caveat that chaos did not work out well in Jurassic Park

It worked out fine for the dinosaurs.

 

[DaBruinz]

I have never worried about the patriots and a floor. First does this floor include mankins? Second, the unamortized rookie bonuses will eat up a bit of the cash floor. If we are close to the cap ceiling, then restructurings would be necessary in order to meet the floor.

Yes, the numbers I ran Included Mankins and Green-ellis on their tenders.

Yes, I understand that rookie bonuses will eat up a bit of the cash floor as will their salaries.

 

[DaBruinz]

Math was never my strong suit DB but the Pats by my rough caculations based on Miguel's page are at over $80M in salary alone (for the top 51). Add to that $5M in roster bonuses and $5M in workout bonuses (because rumor has it the players are demanding those be paid in full) and you're up to $90M. Then add in the $10M in deferred signing bonus that Brady is due this August...and you're over $100M before we sign anyone else...including our rookies. I think we will have no trouble making the $108M cash spending floor and won't have to do anything silly in order to...

I copied the numbers from Miguel's page directly into EXCEL. Then I did a summation of ALL the salaries and bonuses listed on the page except for anything listed under Roster/LTBE/NLTBE. I didn't realize all of the numbers listed there are roster bonuses.

The Top 51 comes to only 73 million in cash expeditures (excluding anything listed under the Roster/LTBE/NLTBE), not 80 million. The 80 million I mentioned is the all 67 players who are signed/tendered including their workout bonuses.

The workout bonuses listed come to 2.62 million. Not sure where you got $5 million.

I didn't go to the breakdown pages to pull other information. So, here is the CORRECTED information.

Projected Cash (Excluding Rookies, but including workout bonuses for all players currently under contract:

Salary: (top 51) 70.413 million (All 67): 77.9 million
Roster Bonuses: 5.185 million
Workoiut Bonuses: 2.62 million
Other Bonuses: 10 million (Brady's deferred signing bonus)
Total CASH Expenditures: $88.218 million

Amount to spend to reach Cap Floor: 19.8 million

And 11 million against the cap if Miguel already figured in Brady's Deferred signing bonus.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I copied the numbers from Miguel's page directly into EXCEL. Then I did a summation of ALL the salaries and bonuses listed on the page except for anything listed under Roster/LTBE/NLTBE. I didn't realize all of the numbers listed there are roster bonuses.

The Top 51 comes to only 73 million in cash expeditures (excluding anything listed under the Roster/LTBE/NLTBE), not 80 million. The 80 million I mentioned is the all 67 players who are signed/tendered including their workout bonuses.

The workout bonuses listed come to 2.62 million. Not sure where you got $5 million.

I didn't go to the breakdown pages to pull other information. So, here is the CORRECTED information.

Projected Cash (Excluding Rookies, but including workout bonuses for all players currently under contract:

Salary: (top 51) 70.413 million (All 67): 77.9 million
Roster Bonuses: 5.185 million
Workoiut Bonuses: 2.62 million
Other Bonuses: 10 million (Brady's deferred signing bonus)
Total CASH Expenditures: $88.218 million

Amount to spend to reach Cap Floor: 19.8 million

And 11 million against the cap if Miguel already figured in Brady's Deferred signing bonus.

Like I said...I did it in my head. And I heard last night that among the 11th hour players push league minimum salaries will be increasing. That will increase cash spent by upwards of a million I presume. And guys will have hit escalators. And the rookies will add a some millions more. The PS will count towards cash spent as will TC stipend payments of close to half a mil. Then of course there will unfortunately be PUP and IR and those players salaries will count in addition to their replacements on the 53 for cash and cap. And there will invariably be the in season extensions of which bonus will count as long as it is paid prior to the late December cutoff for including money from new deals on the current years books. And there will probably be a cut or two and a couple of restructures that impact cap and cash.

I'm not concerned about spending to the cash floor or it impacting cap spending. Those #'s will be close enough to each other here (cash to spend and cap room). I don't see them going nuts in FA, but then I didn't regardless of financials. I'd anticipate their biggest FA signing might be Light or a vet to replace him on a short term deal.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

A nugget in reviewing some of Mort's tweets. Clayton apparently reported earlier that there will be some formula that links 2009 cap to 2011 cap. That may be part of the feels like more talk. Teams may get to carry over any remaining cap space they had from 2009 that they couldn't in 2010 because it was uncapped. According to Miguel's 2009 page the Patriots ended the 2009 season roughly $2M under the cap.

 

[jmt57]

I copied the numbers from Miguel's page directly into EXCEL. Then I did a summation of ALL the salaries and bonuses listed on the page except for anything listed under Roster/LTBE/NLTBE. I didn't realize all of the numbers listed there are roster bonuses.

The Top 51 comes to only 73 million in cash expeditures (excluding anything listed under the Roster/LTBE/NLTBE), not 80 million. The 80 million I mentioned is the all 67 players who are signed/tendered including their workout bonuses.

The workout bonuses listed come to 2.62 million. Not sure where you got $5 million.

I didn't go to the breakdown pages to pull other information. So, here is the CORRECTED information.

Projected Cash (Excluding Rookies, but including workout bonuses for all players currently under contract:

Salary: (top 51) 70.413 million (All 67): 77.9 million
Roster Bonuses: 5.185 million
Workout Bonuses: 2.62 million
Other Bonuses: 10 million (Brady's deferred signing bonus)
Total CASH Expenditures: $88.218 million

Amount to spend to reach Cap Floor: 19.8 million

And 11 million against the cap if Miguel already figured in Brady's Deferred signing bonus.

Thanks for your effort putting that together, DaBruinz; much appreciated.

One question: are you including the pro-rated signing bonuses for cap purposes? I didn't see that listed; if it is still part of the salary cap - and as far as I know it still will be included - then wouldn't that need to be added in as well?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Thanks for your effort putting that together, DaBruinz; much appreciated.

One question: are you including the pro-rated signing bonuses for cap purposes? I didn't see that listed; if it is still part of the salary cap - and as far as I know it still will be included - then wouldn't that need to be added in as well?

The pro rated bonuses only count for salary cap purposes (calculation of which will remain the same as far as we know). For cash spending floor purposes what counts is actual cash spent this season (so all of salary and any bonuses whether amortized or not but paid this year and probably TC stipends would all count towards the cash floor. Pro ration of old bonus money would not count in the cash floor calculation since that money was paid in earlier years.

An interesting note regarding the could "feel more like $130M" nugget that LaCanfora was talking about which has apparently not materialized. As I surmised, there was a proposal to allow teams to carry forward $163M in unused cap credits from 2009. But John Clayton now says that proposal fell apart. I assume it did so because the cap would seem unsustainable going forward unless teams kept saving cap space to roll over and those who had none in 2009 because they saw no need to facing an uncapped year probably squawked. So the cap will feel like $123M...

NFL -- Salary cap scramble will be interesting - ESPN

 

[DaBruinz]

Thanks for your effort putting that together, DaBruinz; much appreciated.

One question: are you including the pro-rated signing bonuses for cap purposes? I didn't see that listed; if it is still part of the salary cap - and as far as I know it still will be included - then wouldn't that need to be added in as well?

All I did was the actual salary for the CASH FLOOR, which is different than the Salary Cap.