Comp pick theory:

[Hyped]

Just a thought:

The Jets got a 3rd rounder when they lost Lamont Jordan among other players.

Perhaps, the Pats have figured out that if they lose FA's and don't sign any major FA's they will be able to get extra day one picks and build the team via the draft cheaply?

With the McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri losses...we should be getting an extra 3rd rounder next year...as long as we don't sign a major FA.

Thoughts?

Another question: If we trade for Moulds or Javon Walker...will those acquistions be thrown into the comp pick calculation? Or is it just FA lost and gained?

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

I will worry about next yr , next yr... Untill then sign some players........

 

[Isaac]

McGinest doesn't count because he was released, nor would traded players, only expired contracts count. Nonetheless, yes, undoubtedly BB/SP consider the implications of comp picks. It's better to sign released players (or trade for players) than expired-contract players because they don't count against you for comp picks. Likewise there is an incentive not to re-sign your own expired-contract players.

One nice twist was when they traded a 4th for Ted Washington, then he left the following year, which gave them a pick in return (a 5th?, I don't recall). If you can get high-level players on one-year deals, there is a built in reward.

 

[BelichickFan]

Thoughts?

Another question: If we trade for Moulds or Javon Walker...will those acquistions be thrown into the comp pick calculation? Or is it just FA lost and gained?

Someone posted yesterday that they though, based on this year's comps, we'd be getting a 4,5,6,7. In other words a full Day Two. Only UFA count, Moulds or Walker don't count.

And, yes, you can bet your ass that they're thinking about it. Sign this guy and lost comp pick(s) or go in some other direction. These day two picks don't have a LOT of value but Tom Brady, David Givens, Dan Koppen, Asate Samuel all say "HI" to those who think they're throwaways.

Hyped - stick around

 

[JJDChE]

Just a thought:

The Jets got a 3rd rounder when they lost Lamont Jordan among other players.

Perhaps, the Pats have figured out that if they lose FA's and don't sign any major FA's they will be able to get extra day one picks and build the team via the draft cheaply?

With the McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri losses...we should be getting an extra 3rd rounder next year...as long as we don't sign a major FA.

Thoughts?

Another question: If we trade for Moulds or Javon Walker...will those acquistions be thrown into the comp pick calculation? Or is it just FA lost and gained?

Not very good way to build a team. Comp picks are nice, but chances are if you get a high comp pick you lost someone better than you'll get with the pick.

I will worry about next yr , next yr... Untill then sign some players........

You should worry about next year and all subsequent years. BB and Pioli have to worry about it and plan for it. The better you understand how each moves affects future years, the better you will understand the moves the Patriots make.

 

[BelichickFan]

Not very good way to build a team. Comp picks are nice, but chances are if you get a high comp pick you lost someone better than you'll get with the pick.

Maybe you are losing someone better but that's irrelevant. The players are gone. We are where we are Right now, if we would get a 4, 5, 6, 7 then signing players would potentially cost those picks. We can't re-sign Givens and give these picks back. We can sign, say, Peerless Price. Is it worth signing Price and losing, say, a #5, or not signing him and keeping the pick.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

You know I am pretty sure that is how the Oakland A's operate. They let their FA go, and get comp. picks. I seem to remember seeing that.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

That's how the Steelers work also - they sign very few FA's and keep most of their drafts picks. Check out who they lost last year - Burress, Bell, Ross and Vincent - while siging only Cedrick Wilson and they received two 4ths and one 5th for this year's draft. And despite they screams of the fans and the press that the Men of Steel never filled their holes, they only went out and won the SB. So don't so readily discount this manner of building a team...

 

[DaBruinz]

Just a thought:

The Jets got a 3rd rounder when they lost Lamont Jordan among other players.

Perhaps, the Pats have figured out that if they lose FA's and don't sign any major FA's they will be able to get extra day one picks and build the team via the draft cheaply?

With the McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri losses...we should be getting an extra 3rd rounder next year...as long as we don't sign a major FA.

Thoughts?

Another question: If we trade for Moulds or Javon Walker...will those acquistions be thrown into the comp pick calculation? Or is it just FA lost and gained?

It the Pats were to trade for Walker or Moulds, neither would be included in the comp pick calculations.

Also, the comp picks that are assigned are based, primarily, on the AMOUNT of the contract that a player signed for. The Patriots have lost the following players who will probably qualify for consideration in the comp pick equations.

David Givens - 4.8 mill per year
Adam Vinatieri - $2 mill per year
Andre Davis - $1.3 mill per year
Tim Dwight - 962.5K
Matt Chatham - 787K (?)
Tom Ashworth - $2.7 million per year

The Pats have only signed Reche Caldwell whose contract averages 942.5K and would off-set the Tim Dwight Signing.

The only way I see the Pats getting a 3rd round pick is it the league is generous with them AND Givens plays like a #1. Otherwise, the Pats will end up with a 4th rounders, probably 2 6th rounders and a 7th. And I am just basing that off of what they got this year and the posts that AdamJT13 has done. And this could all change if the Pats sign an eligible free agent for more than 1.3 million a year.

 

[Urgent]

Someone posted yesterday that they though, based on this year's comps, we'd be getting a 4,5,6,7.

And, yes, you can bet your ass that they're thinking about it. These day two picks don't have a LOT of value but Tom Brady, David Givens, Dan Koppen, Asate Samuel all say "HI" to those who think they're throwaways.

Hyped - stick around

So do Andy Stokes, Dexter Reid, Cedric Cobbs, PK Sam, Christian Morton, Kliff Kingsbury, Spencer Nead, Ethan Kelley, Antwoine Womack, kenyatta Jones, Jabari Holloway, Hakim Akbar, Arther Love, Leonard Myers, Owen Pochman, TJ Turner, Dave Stachelski, Jeff Marriott, David Nugent, and Casey Tisdale.

Of the 30 Day Two picks from 2000-2004 (2005 is too early to really tell), the Pats have 7 players on the roster. You can count Givens as an eighth if you want.

Anyway, that's shooting about one for four - which is excellent for Day Two. And you're counting guys like Klecko and Tully Banta-Cain as well as Brady.

So, if it's a choice of losing Woody, McGinest, Andruzzi, and Vinatieri vs. an extra Day Two pick, I'd rather take the veteran starter.

 

[DaBruinz]

So do Andy Stokes, Dexter Reid, Cedric Cobbs, PK Sam, Christian Morton, Kliff Kingsbury, Spencer Nead, Ethan Kelley, Antwoine Womack, kenyatta Jones, Jabari Holloway, Hakim Akbar, Arther Love, Leonard Myers, Owen Pochman, TJ Turner, Dave Stachelski, Jeff Marriott, David Nugent, and Casey Tisdale.

Of the 30 Day Two picks from 2000-2004 (2005 is too early to really tell), the Pats have 7 players on the roster. You can count Givens as an eighth if you want.

Anyway, that's shooting about one for four - which is excellent for Day Two. And you're counting guys like Klecko and Tully Banta-Cain as well as Brady.

So, if it's a choice of losing Woody, McGinest, Andruzzi, and Vinatieri vs. an extra Day Two pick, I'd rather take the veteran starter.

Urgent, Holloway, Reid, Cobbs, Sam, Morton, Nead, and Kelley are all still in the league.

The fact is that 37 of the 51 picks that BB has made since 2000 are still in the league, 24 of them are on this team currently.

 

[BelichickFan]

So do Andy Stokes, Dexter Reid, Cedric Cobbs, PK Sam, Christian Morton, Kliff Kingsbury, Spencer Nead, Ethan Kelley, Antwoine Womack, kenyatta Jones, Jabari Holloway, Hakim Akbar, Arther Love, Leonard Myers, Owen Pochman, TJ Turner, Dave Stachelski, Jeff Marriott, David Nugent, and Casey Tisdale.

There's others who are still unproven like Sanders, Scott and Cassel who still might do something. That's actually a pretty good rate. Less than fifty percent but not bad. Certainly worth taking into consideration.

 

[flutie2phelan]

.... the posts that AdamJT13 has done.

Neat summary.

The original poster probably is unaware that AdamJT13 has completely
reverse-engineered the league's "secret formula",
and posts his comp pick predictions here sometime in February.

They seem to be almost as accurate as Ivory soap is pure - 99.44%.