Clay Matthews and size

[Patriot Missile]

I understand what you are saying as the Saints had many bigtime contributors who they traded for or signed like Brees, Shockey, Vilma, and Sharper. I understand that you do need a combination of signings, trades, and draft picks to sustain success. However, the Steelers and Colts have 3 super bowls between them and 5 super bowl appearances in the last 10 years without doing anything but drafting well. The Pats 3 superbowls were a combination of mostly draft picks and cheap FA signings. The only players we have traded for are Dillon, Moss, Welker, and Derrick Burgess. If you look back all the players we discussed in free agency they were signed very cheaply except Colvin and Thomas who were both mediocre to bad here.

I really don't think GB, NE, PITT and INDY are getting lucky every year with these great draft picks they continually make. I also think thats 17% ratio is pure BS. Are you counting 7th, 6th, 5th, and 4th rounders in there? Players drafted in these rounds are developmental prospects and most of these guys aren't even expected to make an NFL roster. I also think organizations like St. Louis, Detroit, and Buffalo bring that number way down and those late rounds bring that number down as well. Mel Kiper ansd Mike Mayock have generally agreed that the likelihood a first round pick lives up to their draft grade is 50% in the first round and the percentage drops after every round. Look back at the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers recent first round drafting history. You won't see many misses. Since 2001 I think the only first round pick that Pats missed on was Maroney who clearly sucks. Watson and Graham are not busts and are still starting TEs in this league. Thats 9 picks and 8 hits (Seymour, Warren, Wilkfork, Graham, Watson, Mccourty, Mankins, and Mayo) which is a 88.9% rate. Since 1996 the Colts have drafted Manning, Edge, Harrison, Tarik Glenn, Rob Morris, Wayne, Freeney, Clark, Marlin Jackson, Addai, Anthony Gonzalez, Donald Brown, Jerry Hughes. Thats 13 draft picks and at a minimum 11 hits so far. I would say only Marlin Jackson and Jerry Hughes have been disappointments so far and Jackson still picked Tom Brady to go to the SB in 06. Eleven out of thirteen is a 84.6% hit rate. Starting in 1998 with Pittsburgh they have drafted in the first round: Faneca, Troy Edwards, Plaxico, Hampton, Kendall Simmons, Polamalu, Big Ben, Heath Miller, Holmes, Timmons, Mendenhall, Hood, and Pouncey. Thats 13 draft picks and 12 of those picks worked out with Troy Edwards being the only bust. Thats a 92.3% success rate.

As you can see the top franchises know how to draft in the first and second rounds. After that everything is a crapshoot. I truly think building through the draft is the best way to build a team and its been proven through history as well. Look at that Cowboys team in the 90s. Everyone was a draft pick except Deion Sanders. The 49ers in the 80s and Steelers teams in the 70s were all built through the draft.

Nice job WW. Very true on the same franchises continually doing well in the draft. Unfortunately, like the coaching tree's of Walsh,Parcells, Belichick etc.. spreading arounding the league. So are the GMs and assistants, and scouts. It is no secret anymore that the draft is the way to build your franchise. Owners are starting to realize this and are willing to pay good dollar to get these people away from the teams mentioned, to serve there team in the same fashion. I predict in a few more years this draft is going to become even more tricky.

 

[DW Toys]

I truly think building through the draft is the best way .[/QUOTE]

Still not buying Cousin. Do we want to include just 1st rounders the percentage goes up.We have lucked out with Brady, Volmer, etc. not 1st rounders. You can't have it both ways. Playoff Teams this year Bears, Jets, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles have some top tier trades and FA pick ups.This is undeniable. Even the Ravens.

If you concede 3 years for the 2011 Draft picks to evolve, I will say 3 possibly 4 will still be with the Pats and that is a good Draft. 9 draft picks and 6 in the top 100 will beget a great 33% average. Tainted because they are higher choices but none-the-less very good. I think rounds 1-3 are a much better sampling on a Draft that defines itself.

I have this posted previously:

Let's take the 2007 NFL Draft class. Let's use the top 100. 17 are top yield players, one or two more are iffy border line. Some have promising careers that are questionable by injury like Rice, Ross or Posluszny, some are not with their original Teams already and most are just serviceable, roster fillers and many are out of the league, so17%!

1 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB LSU
1 2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson† WR Georgia Tech
1 3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas† OT Wisconsin
1 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
1 5 Arizona Cardinals Brown, Levi Brown OT Penn State
1 6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry S LSU
1 7 Minnesota Vikings Peterson, Adrian Peterson† RB Oklahoma
1 8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
1 9 Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State
1 10 Houston Texans Amobi Okoye DT Louisville
1 11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis† LB Ole Miss
1 12 Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch† RB California
1 13 St. Louis Rams Adam Carriker DT Nebraska
1 14 New York Jets Darrelle Revis† CB Pittsburgh
1 15 Pittsburgh Steelers LawrenceTimmons LB Florida State
1 16 Green Bay Packers Justin Harrell DT Tennessee
1 17 Denver Bronco Jarvis Moss DE Florida
1 18 Cincinnati Bengals Leon Hall CB Michigan
1 19 Tennessee Titans Michael Griffin† S Texas
1 20 New York Giants Aaron Ross CB Texas
1 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Nelson S Florida
1 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame
1 23 Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe† WR
1 24 New England Patriots Brandon Meriweather† S Miami
1 25 Carolina Panthers Jon Beason† LB Miami (FL)
1 26 Dallas Cowboys Anthony Spencer DE Purdue
1 27 New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem WR Tennessee
1 28 San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley OT
1 29 Baltimore Ravens Ben Grubbs G Auburn
1 30 San Diego Chargers Craig "Buster" Davis WR LSU
1 31 Chicago Bears Greg Olsen TE Miami (FL)
1 32 Indianapolis Colts Anthony Gonzalez WR
2 33 Arizona Cardinals Alan Branch DT Michigan
2 34 Buffalo Bills Paul Posluszny LB Penn State
2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arron Sears G Tennessee
2 36 Philadelphia Eagles Kevin Kolb QB Houston
2 37 San Diego Chargers Eric Weddle S Utah
2 38 Oakland Raiders Zach Miller† TE Arizona State
2 39 Atlanta Falcons Justin Blalock G Texas
2 40 Miami Dolphins John Beck QB BYU
2 41 Atlanta Falcons Chris Houston CB Arkansas
2 42 Indianapolis Colts Tony Ugoh OT Arkansas
2 43 Detroit Lions Drew Stanton QB Michigan State
2 44 Minnesota Vikings Sidney Rice† WR
2 45 Carolina Panthers Dwayne Jarrett WR USC
2 46 Pittsburgh Steelers LaMarr Woodley† DE Michigan
2 47 New York Jets David Harris LB Michigan
2 48 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Durant LB Hampton
2 49 Cincinnati Bengals Kenny Irons RB Auburn
2 50 Tennessee Titans Chris Henry RB Arizona
2 51 New York Giants Steve Smith† WR USC
2 52 St. Louis Rams Brian Leonard FB Rutgers
2 53 Cleveland Browns Eric Wright CB UNLV
2 54 Kansas City Chiefs Turk McBride DE Tennessee
2 55 Seattle Seahawks Josh Wilson CB Maryland
2 56 Denver Broncos Tim Crowder DE Texas
2 57 Philadelphia Eagles Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame
2 58 Detroit Lions Ikaika Alama-Francis DE Hawaiʻi
2 59 Carolina Panthers Ryan Kalil† C USC
2 60 Miami Dolphins Samson Satele C Hawaiʻi
2 61 Detroit Lions Gerald Alexander S Boise State
2 62 Chicago Bears Dan Bazuin DE Central Michigan
2 63 Green Bay Packers Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska
2 64 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sabby Piscitelli S Oregon State
3 65 Oakland Raiders Quentin Moses DE Georgia
3 66 New Orleans Saints Usama Young CB Kent State
3 67 Dallas Cowboys James Marten OT Boston College
3 68 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quincy Black LB New Mexico MWC 3 69 Arizona Cardinals Buster Davis LB Florida State
3 70 Denver Broncos Ryan Harris OT Notre Dame
3 71 Miami Dolphins Lorenzo Booker RB Florida State
3 72 Minnesota Vikings Marcus McCauley CB Fresno State
3 73 Houston Texans Jacoby Jones WR Lane
3 74 Baltimore Ravens Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State
3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State
3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR Washington State
3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Minnesota
3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR San Jose State
3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR Central Florida
3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR Fresno State
3 80.5– Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited because of use of 3rd round selection in 2006 Supplemental Draft
3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT Penn State
3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT NC State
3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Georgia
3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB Tennessee
3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT California
3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda OT Iowa
3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska
3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G Akron
3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S Virginia Tech
3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB Penn State
3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT Florida State
3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB Stanford
3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB Northern Illinois
3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB Stanford
3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB California
3 * 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB Clemson
3 * 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Florida
3 * 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pit**** DT Ohio State
3 * 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP
4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Louisville


It's a 3 year old class.

17% does not lie. You want to wait 3 years? How about TB?
DW Toys

 

[Shelterdog]

I truly think building through the draft is the best way .

Still not buying Cousin. Do we want to include just 1st rounders the percentage goes up.We have lucked out with Brady, Volmer, etc. not 1st rounders. You can't have it both ways. Playoff Teams this year Bears, Jets, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles have some top tier trades and FA pick ups.This is undeniable. Even the Ravens.
It's a 3 year old class.

17% does not lie. You want to wait 3 years? How about TB?
DW Toys[/QUOTE]

The 2007 draft was by most reports a terrible one (that's why BB traded out of it).

I've seen other reports (Casserly and Billick did a study) that say, essentially, four years after a draft:
1.)75% of 1st rounders are starters
2.) 50% of second rounders ""
3.) 30-35% of third rounders ""
4.) 20% or so of fourth and fifth rounders ""
5.) 10% or fewer of everyone else.

 

[MaineMan]

The 2007 draft was by most reports a terrible one (that's why BB traded out of it).

I've seen other reports (Casserly and Billick did a study) that say, essentially, four years after a draft:
1.)75% of 1st rounders are starters
2.) 50% of second rounders ""
3.) 30-35% of third rounders ""
4.) 20% or so of fourth and fifth rounders ""
5.) 10% or fewer of everyone else.

This is nice shorthand, but there's a lot of positional differences unaccounted for. It might be more accurate (some might say, "more over analyzed") to look at something like "career arcs" (total contributions and career length) with RBs compared to each other by draft pick trade value "cost".

Plus, "starter" is an ambiguous and inappropriate designation for a lot of positions anymore.

For example, who's "worth" more:
(1) a "feature" RB who starts nearly every game and gives you 100 points (arbitrary number) of total production over five years who you took at #28 (660 points)
(2) a change of pace/3rd down back who never starts but who gives you 100 points over 10 years and who you took at #74 (220 points)

Does it make a difference of RB #1's production, year-by-year goes like:
10 (rookie)
25
20
15
30

.......and RB #2's production is 10 points every year?

 

[Deus Irae]

... I truly think building through the draft is the best way to build a team and its been proven through history as well. Look at that Cowboys team in the 90s. Everyone was a draft pick except Deion Sanders. The 49ers in the 80s and Steelers teams in the 70s were all built through the draft.

The Steelers and Colts build through the draft. They've got 3 SB titles this decade.

The Patriots build through the draft and free agency. They've got 3 SB titles this decade.

Both avenues have been shown to be very successful.

 

[WesWelker83]

I truly think building through the draft is the best way .

Still not buying Cousin. Do we want to include just 1st rounders the percentage goes up.We have lucked out with Brady, Volmer, etc. not 1st rounders. You can't have it both ways. Playoff Teams this year Bears, Jets, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles have some top tier trades and FA pick ups.This is undeniable. Even the Ravens.

If you concede 3 years for the 2011 Draft picks to evolve, I will say 3 possibly 4 will still be with the Pats and that is a good Draft. 9 draft picks and 6 in the top 100 will beget a great 33% average. Tainted because they are higher choices but none-the-less very good. I think rounds 1-3 are a much better sampling on a Draft that defines itself.

I have this posted previously:

Let's take the 2007 NFL Draft class. Let's use the top 100. 17 are top yield players, one or two more are iffy border line. Some have promising careers that are questionable by injury like Rice, Ross or Posluszny, some are not with their original Teams already and most are just serviceable, roster fillers and many are out of the league, so17%!

1 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB LSU
1 2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson† WR Georgia Tech
1 3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas† OT Wisconsin
1 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
1 5 Arizona Cardinals Brown, Levi Brown OT Penn State
1 6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry S LSU
1 7 Minnesota Vikings Peterson, Adrian Peterson† RB Oklahoma
1 8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
1 9 Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State
1 10 Houston Texans Amobi Okoye DT Louisville
1 11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis† LB Ole Miss
1 12 Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch† RB California
1 13 St. Louis Rams Adam Carriker DT Nebraska
1 14 New York Jets Darrelle Revis† CB Pittsburgh
1 15 Pittsburgh Steelers LawrenceTimmons LB Florida State
1 16 Green Bay Packers Justin Harrell DT Tennessee
1 17 Denver Bronco Jarvis Moss DE Florida
1 18 Cincinnati Bengals Leon Hall CB Michigan
1 19 Tennessee Titans Michael Griffin† S Texas
1 20 New York Giants Aaron Ross CB Texas
1 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Nelson S Florida
1 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame
1 23 Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe† WR
1 24 New England Patriots Brandon Meriweather† S Miami
1 25 Carolina Panthers Jon Beason† LB Miami (FL)
1 26 Dallas Cowboys Anthony Spencer DE Purdue
1 27 New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem WR Tennessee
1 28 San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley OT
1 29 Baltimore Ravens Ben Grubbs G Auburn
1 30 San Diego Chargers Craig "Buster" Davis WR LSU
1 31 Chicago Bears Greg Olsen TE Miami (FL)
1 32 Indianapolis Colts Anthony Gonzalez WR
2 33 Arizona Cardinals Alan Branch DT Michigan
2 34 Buffalo Bills Paul Posluszny LB Penn State
2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arron Sears G Tennessee
2 36 Philadelphia Eagles Kevin Kolb QB Houston
2 37 San Diego Chargers Eric Weddle S Utah
2 38 Oakland Raiders Zach Miller† TE Arizona State
2 39 Atlanta Falcons Justin Blalock G Texas
2 40 Miami Dolphins John Beck QB BYU
2 41 Atlanta Falcons Chris Houston CB Arkansas
2 42 Indianapolis Colts Tony Ugoh OT Arkansas
2 43 Detroit Lions Drew Stanton QB Michigan State
2 44 Minnesota Vikings Sidney Rice† WR
2 45 Carolina Panthers Dwayne Jarrett WR USC
2 46 Pittsburgh Steelers LaMarr Woodley† DE Michigan
2 47 New York Jets David Harris LB Michigan
2 48 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Durant LB Hampton
2 49 Cincinnati Bengals Kenny Irons RB Auburn
2 50 Tennessee Titans Chris Henry RB Arizona
2 51 New York Giants Steve Smith† WR USC
2 52 St. Louis Rams Brian Leonard FB Rutgers
2 53 Cleveland Browns Eric Wright CB UNLV
2 54 Kansas City Chiefs Turk McBride DE Tennessee
2 55 Seattle Seahawks Josh Wilson CB Maryland
2 56 Denver Broncos Tim Crowder DE Texas
2 57 Philadelphia Eagles Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame
2 58 Detroit Lions Ikaika Alama-Francis DE Hawaiʻi
2 59 Carolina Panthers Ryan Kalil† C USC
2 60 Miami Dolphins Samson Satele C Hawaiʻi
2 61 Detroit Lions Gerald Alexander S Boise State
2 62 Chicago Bears Dan Bazuin DE Central Michigan
2 63 Green Bay Packers Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska
2 64 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sabby Piscitelli S Oregon State
3 65 Oakland Raiders Quentin Moses DE Georgia
3 66 New Orleans Saints Usama Young CB Kent State
3 67 Dallas Cowboys James Marten OT Boston College
3 68 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quincy Black LB New Mexico MWC 3 69 Arizona Cardinals Buster Davis LB Florida State
3 70 Denver Broncos Ryan Harris OT Notre Dame
3 71 Miami Dolphins Lorenzo Booker RB Florida State
3 72 Minnesota Vikings Marcus McCauley CB Fresno State
3 73 Houston Texans Jacoby Jones WR Lane
3 74 Baltimore Ravens Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State
3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State
3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR Washington State
3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Minnesota
3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR San Jose State
3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR Central Florida
3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR Fresno State
3 80.5– Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited because of use of 3rd round selection in 2006 Supplemental Draft
3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT Penn State
3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT NC State
3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Georgia
3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB Tennessee
3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT California
3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda OT Iowa
3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska
3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G Akron
3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S Virginia Tech
3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB Penn State
3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT Florida State
3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB Stanford
3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB Northern Illinois
3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB Stanford
3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB California
3 * 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB Clemson
3 * 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Florida
3 * 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pit**** DT Ohio State
3 * 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP
4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Louisville


It's a 3 year old class.

17% does not lie. You want to wait 3 years? How about TB?
DW Toys[/QUOTE]

Your right its all luck! Thats why teams like Pitt, NE, Indy, GB, etc. draft well every year while Buffalo, Oakland, St. Louis, Detroit, Washington, etc. draft bad every year. Maybe these bad teams will get LUCKY this year and have good drafts LOL. Lets also count roundS 4, 5, 6, and 7 as part of a draft analysis because everyone drafted is supposed to be a star!

The bottomline is that the great organizations draft well pretty much every year while teams like Oakland select Jamarcus Russell and Heyward-Bey first round! All teams need to pick up free agents but big-time high priced free agents flame out a majority of the time or become overpaid players who tie up precious cap space. Going out and spending like drunken sailors will not help the Patriots.

Name one player ever who has LED his team to a Super Bowl that was signed by another team besides Brees or Reggie White?

 

[Deus Irae]

Name one player ever who has LED his team to a Super Bowl that was signed by another team besides Brees or Reggie White?

LED is an unfair term, as is the requirement of a Super Bowl win. Do the Patriots win any of their titles without their free agent signings? Do the Raiders even get to the Super Bowl without Gannon?

 

[Shelterdog]

This is nice shorthand, but there's a lot of positional differences unaccounted for. It might be more accurate (some might say, "more over analyzed") to look at something like "career arcs" (total contributions and career length) with RBs compared to each other by draft pick trade value "cost".
...

There are much better ways to do it, but I don't have the time to spend fifty hours or whatever it would take to do a great analysis.

My overall points is that first rounders generally do pretty well, it's fifty/fity with second rounders, and by the fourth or fifth round it's pretty unlikely you're going to get a major contrbutor. A lot more than 17% of draft picks make it but then anyone who tells you that team X is going to get a bunch of starters in the third round and later is just deluding themselves.

 

[MaineMan]

There are much better ways to do it, but I don't have the time to spend fifty hours or whatever it would take to do a great analysis.

My overall points is that first rounders generally do pretty well, it's fifty/fity with second rounders, and by the fourth or fifth round it's pretty unlikely you're going to get a major contrbutor. A lot more than 17% of draft picks make it but then anyone who tells you that team X is going to get a bunch of starters in the third round and later is just deluding themselves.

Yeah, I get the overall point and accept that it's an easy-to-remember guideline. I'm just saying that, to me, it's very abstracted, fails completely when applied to certain positions (e.g., FB or OC), and certainly fails in significant ways wrt to other positions, especially in terms of actual bang-for-the-buck. Even without spending significant time on a detailed numerical analysis, breaking actual draft and player performance results down just a little more has helped me understand why trading down nearly always yields better value and more success and trading up rarely does. Sort of a "Moneyball" type thing.