Welcome to PatsFans.com

Chase for the #2 seed continues

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PonyExpress, Dec 12, 2006.

  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,658
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    The #2 seed is a long shot but still possible. Indy has an atrocious defense, and can lose to Cinci and Miami, especially if Ronnie Brown is back by then. Baltimore, which only defeated Cleveland and Tennessee by 1 pt each earlier in the year, can lose at Pittsburgh and to a motivated Buffalo team. Stranger things have happened in this league...
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2006
  2. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0


    The problem is the Ravens get Cleveland and Buffalo in Baltimore. I can't see them dropping either of those two games. Cleveland might play them tough as they did in the first game but I can't see them beating them. I think they drop the Pit game and finish 12-4. I think the Colts lose to Cincy and Miami and finish 11-5.

    It would be a pleasant surprise to see the Colts and Ravens drop two each but I'm not holding my breath.
  3. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,689
    Likes Received:
    194
    Ratings:
    +423 / 5 / -1

    If we win out and go 12-4, I think in your scenario that we may win the tiebreakers with Baltimore. If they lose to Buffalo in that scenario, we would win the common opponents tie breaker since they would have lost to both Cincy (once) and Buffalo. They also lost to Denver which we beat and we would both have beaten Tennessee. If they beat Buffalo, that tiebreaker is not valid because you need at least four common opponents. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory which until this past weekend, we had the advantage.
  4. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Minor correction, Denver beat the Pats, again. :enranged:
  5. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    We can't win a tie breaker with Baltimore. They only have two AFC losses and we have 4. The only way we jump Baltimore is if they end up with 5 losses which is more than doubtfull. We lose all tie breakers against Indy, Baltimore and SD.
  6. FortLauderdaleBroncosFan

    FortLauderdaleBroncosFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2006
    Messages:
    65
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    lmfao!! u guys have no chance to beat the jags!
  7. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    Last edited: Dec 12, 2006
  8. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,689
    Likes Received:
    194
    Ratings:
    +423 / 5 / -1

    We both lost to Denver.
  9. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,689
    Likes Received:
    194
    Ratings:
    +423 / 5 / -1

    Yes we can. If we are tied at at the end of the season, the Ravens will have to lose two more games. All they have left are conference games. So we will both have four conference losses. If they don't lose two more games there is no tiebreaker situations. As long as Baltimore lose two more games and we win out and one of the Ravens' losses is to Buffalo, we have the tiebreaker on Baltimore because we both will have four conference losses and we will be 3-1 against common opponents (Cincy, Buffalo, Denver, and Tennessee) and they will be 2-3. We lost to Denver, they lost to Cincy (once) and Denver and would have lost to Buffalo.
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2006
  10. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    If Baltimore loses two more games they will be 11-5. We would be 12-4 if we win out, thus there would be no tie.
  11. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,689
    Likes Received:
    194
    Ratings:
    +423 / 5 / -1

    Oops. You are right. I don't know what I was thinking. Sorry.
  12. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    NP, I figured you thought they were 10-2. :D
  13. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,658
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    If the Pats win out and Baltimore loses two games, the tiebreakers are unnecessary because the Pats would be 12-4 and the Ravens 11-5. The Pats are currently 9-4, the Ravens 10-3, and the Ravens have a 2 game lead in the conference standings (7-2 to 5-4), the 1st tiebreaker. Since the teams only have conference games left, unless I am confused, there is no way the Pats can win a head to head tiebreaker vs. Baltimore. If there is a three way tie with Indy, head-to-head is thrown out the window and things become more complicated with common opponents factored in. But Indy looks to have an advantage with a win against Denver, vs losses by Baltimore and NE.
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2006
  14. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,689
    Likes Received:
    194
    Ratings:
    +423 / 5 / -1

    I guess it just feels like we are several games behind the other top teams in the AFC after our loss on Sunday. :eek:
  15. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    Do all three teams have 4 opponents in common?

    EDIT: As it turns out they do - Denver, Cincy, Tenn and Buffalo.

    Their records are listed below with the remaining team left to play.

    NE 3-1 (Ten)
    Bal 2-2 (Buf)
    Ind 3-1 (Cin)

    I would have to re-read the tie breaker scenarios but if in a 3-way tie it goes to common opponents then the Pats would beat out the Ravens with a win over Ten or a Bal loss to Buf and we would beat out Indy with a win over Ten and an Indy loss to cincy.

    I don't believe it would ever get to common opponents for the Pats they would be eliminated by the third tie breaker "Conference record". The Colts and Ravens would then go to common opponents. Here is the Tie Breaking procedure:

    Three or More Clubs
    (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
    1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
    2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    5. Strength of victory.
    6. Strength of schedule.
    7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    9. Best net points in conference games.
    10. Best net points in all games.
    11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
    12. Coin toss
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2006
  16. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    13,261
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -0

    28-3. And that was with an inferior 2005 team.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>