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This obviously is based on what we know now and what we're speculating for the future (given free agency and the draft will ultimately influence our impressions).
I have the Bills as clearly the best team in the division right now. Arguably they should be the AFC favorite for the Super Bowl. They have an elite quarterback and a top-3 offense in the NFL. They had the top-ranked defense in the NFL this season. They're in good shape roster-wise and with free agency. They were 6-1 against divisional opponents in '21 with the one loss coming in fluky conditions. They didn't punt against the Patriots for 8 straight quarters. Excluding kneel downs they scored on 12 of their last 13 possessions including touchdowns in the last 9 against the Patriots. The Patriots finished out the season 1-4 when they got lit up by Allen twice and couldn't stop the run in the other two losses. Their defense has more holes than their final rankings (#2 P/A & #4 Y/A) would suggest. Their offense needs a #1 receiver and probably a legitimately qualified OC. Overall Mac Jones had a good rookie season and he should improve with conditioning and a better supporting cast.
In '21 the Patriots were 3-8 against teams with a winning record and 7-0 against teams with a losing record.
In '21 the Bills were 6-6 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 against teams with a losing record.
Their 2022 Opponents...
New England Patriots
Home
Buffalo
Miami
NYJ
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Chicago
Detroit
Away
Buffalo
Miami
NYJ
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Las Vegas
Green Bay
Minnesota
Arizona
Buffalo Bills
Home
New England
Miami
NYJ
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Tennessee
Green Bay
Minnesota
Away
New England
Miami
NYJ
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Kansas City
Chicago
Detroit
LA Rams
My way early predictions for '22 are 10-7 for the Patriots and 13-4 for the Bills. My poll answer is the Bills are going to win the division for at least 2-3 more seasons.
I have the Bills as clearly the best team in the division right now. Arguably they should be the AFC favorite for the Super Bowl. They have an elite quarterback and a top-3 offense in the NFL. They had the top-ranked defense in the NFL this season. They're in good shape roster-wise and with free agency. They were 6-1 against divisional opponents in '21 with the one loss coming in fluky conditions. They didn't punt against the Patriots for 8 straight quarters. Excluding kneel downs they scored on 12 of their last 13 possessions including touchdowns in the last 9 against the Patriots. The Patriots finished out the season 1-4 when they got lit up by Allen twice and couldn't stop the run in the other two losses. Their defense has more holes than their final rankings (#2 P/A & #4 Y/A) would suggest. Their offense needs a #1 receiver and probably a legitimately qualified OC. Overall Mac Jones had a good rookie season and he should improve with conditioning and a better supporting cast.
In '21 the Patriots were 3-8 against teams with a winning record and 7-0 against teams with a losing record.
In '21 the Bills were 6-6 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 against teams with a losing record.
Their 2022 Opponents...
New England Patriots
Home
Buffalo
Miami
NYJ
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Chicago
Detroit
Away
Buffalo
Miami
NYJ
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Las Vegas
Green Bay
Minnesota
Arizona
Buffalo Bills
Home
New England
Miami
NYJ
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Tennessee
Green Bay
Minnesota
Away
New England
Miami
NYJ
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Kansas City
Chicago
Detroit
LA Rams
My way early predictions for '22 are 10-7 for the Patriots and 13-4 for the Bills. My poll answer is the Bills are going to win the division for at least 2-3 more seasons.