Chase for the #2 seed continues

[PonyExpress]

The #2 seed is a long shot but still possible. Indy has an atrocious defense, and can lose to Cinci and Miami, especially if Ronnie Brown is back by then. Baltimore, which only defeated Cleveland and Tennessee by 1 pt each earlier in the year, can lose at Pittsburgh and to a motivated Buffalo team. Stranger things have happened in this league...

 

[mgcolby]

The #2 seed is a long shot but still possible. Indy has an atrocious defense, and can lose to Cinci and Miami, especially if Ronnie Brown is back by then. Baltimore, which only defeated Cleveland and Tennessee by 1 pt each earlier in the year, can lose at Pittsburgh and to a motivated Buffalo team. Stranger things have happened in this league...

The problem is the Ravens get Cleveland and Buffalo in Baltimore. I can't see them dropping either of those two games. Cleveland might play them tough as they did in the first game but I can't see them beating them. I think they drop the Pit game and finish 12-4. I think the Colts lose to Cincy and Miami and finish 11-5.

It would be a pleasant surprise to see the Colts and Ravens drop two each but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Rob0729]

The problem is the Ravens get Cleveland and Buffalo in Baltimore. I can't see them dropping either of those two games. Cleveland might play them tough as they did in the first game but I can't see them beating them. I think they drop the Pit game and finish 12-4. I think the Colts lose to Cincy and Miami and finish 11-5.

It would be a pleasant surprise to see the Colts and Ravens drop two each but I'm not holding my breath.

If we win out and go 12-4, I think in your scenario that we may win the tiebreakers with Baltimore. If they lose to Buffalo in that scenario, we would win the common opponents tie breaker since they would have lost to both Cincy (once) and Buffalo. They also lost to Denver which we beat and we would both have beaten Tennessee. If they beat Buffalo, that tiebreaker is not valid because you need at least four common opponents. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory which until this past weekend, we had the advantage.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If we win out and go 12-4, I think in your scenario that we may win the tiebreakers with Baltimore. If they lose to Buffalo in that scenario, we would win the common opponents tie breaker since they would have lost to both Cincy (once) and Buffalo. They also lost to Denver which we beat and we would both have beaten Tennessee. If they beat Buffalo, that tiebreaker is not valid because you need at least four common opponents. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory which until this past weekend, we had the advantage.

Minor correction, Denver beat the Pats, again. :enranged:

 

[mgcolby]

If we win out and go 12-4, I think in your scenario that we may win the tiebreakers with Baltimore.

We can't win a tie breaker with Baltimore. They only have two AFC losses and we have 4. The only way we jump Baltimore is if they end up with 5 losses which is more than doubtfull. We lose all tie breakers against Indy, Baltimore and SD.

 

[FortLauderdaleBroncosFan]

lmfao!! u guys have no chance to beat the jags!

 

[mgcolby]

lmfao!! u guys have no chance to beat the jags!

Hey Dingleberry,

I would think a fan of a team that is sinking faster than the Titanic would have bigger worries than what the fans of a playoff bound team are discussing?

Since you're here why not check out this thread:

http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=46198

 

[Rob0729]

Minor correction, Denver beat the Pats, again. :enranged:

We both lost to Denver.

 

[Rob0729]

We can't win a tie breaker with Baltimore. They only have two AFC losses and we have 4. The only way we jump Baltimore is if they end up with 5 losses which is more than doubtfull. We lose all tie breakers against Indy, Baltimore and SD.

Yes we can. If we are tied at at the end of the season, the Ravens will have to lose two more games. All they have left are conference games. So we will both have four conference losses. If they don't lose two more games there is no tiebreaker situations. As long as Baltimore lose two more games and we win out and one of the Ravens' losses is to Buffalo, we have the tiebreaker on Baltimore because we both will have four conference losses and we will be 3-1 against common opponents (Cincy, Buffalo, Denver, and Tennessee) and they will be 2-3. We lost to Denver, they lost to Cincy (once) and Denver and would have lost to Buffalo.

 

[mgcolby]

Yes we can. If we are tied at at the end of the season, the Ravens will have to lose two more games. All they have left are conference games. So we will both have four conference losses. If they don't lose two more games there is no tiebreaker situations. As long as Baltimore lose two more games and we win out and one of the Ravens' losses is to Buffalo, we have the tiebreaker on Buffalo because we both will have four conference losses and we will be 3-1 against common opponents and they will be 3-2.

If Baltimore loses two more games they will be 11-5. We would be 12-4 if we win out, thus there would be no tie.

 

[Rob0729]

If Baltimore loses two more games they will be 11-5. We would be 12-4 if we win out, thus there would be no tie.

Oops. You are right. I don't know what I was thinking. Sorry.

 

[mgcolby]

Oops. You are right. I don't know what I was thinking. Sorry.

NP, I figured you thought they were 10-2.

 

[PonyExpress]

Yes we can. If we are tied at at the end of the season, the Ravens will have to lose two more games. All they have left are conference games. So we will both have four conference losses. If they don't lose two more games there is no tiebreaker situations. As long as Baltimore lose two more games and we win out and one of the Ravens' losses is to Buffalo, we have the tiebreaker on Buffalo because we both will have four conference losses and we will be 3-1 against common opponents and they will be 3-2.

If the Pats win out and Baltimore loses two games, the tiebreakers are unnecessary because the Pats would be 12-4 and the Ravens 11-5. The Pats are currently 9-4, the Ravens 10-3, and the Ravens have a 2 game lead in the conference standings (7-2 to 5-4), the 1st tiebreaker. Since the teams only have conference games left, unless I am confused, there is no way the Pats can win a head to head tiebreaker vs. Baltimore. If there is a three way tie with Indy, head-to-head is thrown out the window and things become more complicated with common opponents factored in. But Indy looks to have an advantage with a win against Denver, vs losses by Baltimore and NE.

 

[Rob0729]

NP, I figured you thought they were 10-2.

I guess it just feels like we are several games behind the other top teams in the AFC after our loss on Sunday.

 

[mgcolby]

The Pats are 9-4, the Ravens 10-3, and the Ravens have a 2 game lead in the conference standings (7-2 to 5-4), the 1st tiebreaker. Since the teams only have conference games left, unless I am confused, there is no way the Pats can win a head to head tiebreaker vs. Baltimore. If there is a three way tie with Indy, things become more complicated and common opponents factor in. But Indy looks to have an advantage with a win against Denver, vs losses by Baltimore and NE.

Do all three teams have 4 opponents in common?

EDIT: As it turns out they do - Denver, Cincy, Tenn and Buffalo.

Their records are listed below with the remaining team left to play.

NE 3-1 (Ten)
Bal 2-2 (Buf)
Ind 3-1 (Cin)

I would have to re-read the tie breaker scenarios but if in a 3-way tie it goes to common opponents then the Pats would beat out the Ravens with a win over Ten or a Bal loss to Buf and we would beat out Indy with a win over Ten and an Indy loss to cincy.

I don't believe it would ever get to common opponents for the Pats they would be eliminated by the third tie breaker "Conference record". The Colts and Ravens would then go to common opponents. Here is the Tie Breaking procedure:

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

[pats1]

lmfao!! u guys have no chance to beat the jags!

28-3. And that was with an inferior 2005 team.