Building your draft board position by position - week 5: LB

[sebman2112]

Charming, odd though that he compares to Ray Lewis and Jonathon Vilma, neither of whom flourished in 3-4 if the rumors of Vilma being dangled by the Jets as a trade option are true. New England may need linebackers, but unless a pundit makes an effort to study a 3-4 they automatically assume the "best" ILB is a natural fit. What little of the Jets I watched did not show Vilma to be as dominant in the 3-4 as he was when protected behind the big bottoms of the 4-3.

The clips shown by Mike Mayock on NFL Network have shown two linebackers playing off of OL and making plays, Beason who was actually rushing and spun off to make a play, and Posluszny who was stacking and shedding just like a 3-4 ILB, though he was too far upfield when he took on the OL. Willis is a great kid who will be a dominant LB for many years, if he plays in a 4-3 - though he would be a good fit as a replacement for Donnie Edwards if they keep Wade's system. Keep trying to sell me, you may catch me on a bad hair day.

I think Vilma will do well in the 3-4 this year. It was his first year playing in that system, after years of playing in a 4-3. Also, you think Ray Lewis in his prime couldn't play in the 3-4 defense? After all We're not talking about old man Patrick Willis, so why compare him to old man Ray Lewis.

Question, do you like Posluzny more than Willis?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think Vilma will do well in the 3-4 this year. It was his first year playing in that system, after years of playing in a 4-3. Also, you think Ray Lewis in his prime couldn't play in the 3-4 defense? That's the other backer he compared him to.

Am I reading that correct, do you like Posluzny more than Willis?

From a Pats perspective I hope Vilma stinks on ice, but he is talented enough to learn and improve. We knew before this that he disappeared once one of our OL got out to him. Ray Lewis mitched and boaned about playing in the 3-4, hardly what you'd expect from someone who feels he is doing well.

EDIT: About Willis and Posluszny, both are too small for my comfort level, I don't know if Pos' extra 1/2" of height means his frame is more capable of putting on weight, I do know that Willis looking as ripped as he did would not appear to have much more room to pack on muscle. Willis covers the field like a outfielder, essential for a 4-3. Posluszny is an enigma, I like his experience in a 3-4, I'm not that sure about his instincts but think he has the basic tool set to be a Pro. As long as both are undersized by my assessment, I'd prefer to take the bigger boys I like later in the draft - less risk.

 

[sebman2112]

From a Pats perspective I hope Vilma stinks on ice, but he is talented enough to learn and improve. We knew before this that he disappeared once one of our OL got out to him. Ray Lewis mitched and boaned about playing in the 3-4, hardly what you'd expect from someone who feels he is doing well.

Honestly, I think Lewis has been starting to get washed up these past few years. I don't think he's near the linebacker he once was, and actually was probably the third best LB on that team last year.

If you watched their playoff game against the Colts he actually helped the Colts by knocking sure INT's out of teammates hands, twice.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Honestly, I think Lewis has been starting to get washed up these past few years. I don't think he's near the linebacker he once was, and actually was probably the third best LB on that team last year.

If you watched their playoff game against the Colts he actually helped the Colts by knocking sure INT's out of teammates hands, twice.

I've never been a Lewis fan, I like the characterization so many have used on here about him running to the pile and jumping on before rolling off and doing his dance.

 

[DaBruinz]

Charming, odd though that he compares to Ray Lewis and Jonathon Vilma, neither of whom flourished in 3-4 if the rumors of Vilma being dangled by the Jets as a trade option are true. New England may need linebackers, but unless a pundit makes an effort to study a 3-4 they automatically assume the "best" ILB is a natural fit. What little of the Jets I watched did not show Vilma to be as dominant in the 3-4 as he was when protected behind the big bottoms of the 4-3.

The clips shown by Mike Mayock on NFL Network have shown two linebackers playing off of OL and making plays, Beason who was actually rushing and spun off to make a play, and Posluszny who was stacking and shedding just like a 3-4 ILB, though he was too far upfield when he took on the OL. Willis is a great kid who will be a dominant LB for many years, if he plays in a 4-3 - though he would be a good fit as a replacement for Donnie Edwards if they keep Wade's system. Keep trying to sell me, you may catch me on a bad hair day.

If Vilma is indeed being dangled and BB TRULY meant what he said about loving Vilma, then I would do everything in my power to swing a 3 way. Get another team to grab Vilma from the Jets and then trade Samuel for Vilma with that team. That way the Jets get very little and the Pats get an ILB who their coach "coveted" at the draft.

Then the Pats can focus on CB and Safety in the draft with LB being next in line.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If Vilma is indeed being dangled and BB TRULY meant what he said about loving Vilma, then I would do everything in my power to swing a 3 way. Get another team to grab Vilma from the Jets and then trade Samuel for Vilma with that team. That way the Jets get very little and the Pats get an ILB who their coach "coveted" at the draft.

Then the Pats can focus on CB and Safety in the draft with LB being next in line.

We presume Vilma was a high priority for BB because of one brief note in Patriot Reign, we also presume BB intended to use him at ILB. Vilma is an outstanding coverage LB who could play SS. He might have started in Phifer's role and gradually gotten more ILB reps as he bulked up and learned the position. Too many presumptions.

If BB had plans for Vilma, Mangini would have had some clue as to what they were. If Mangini is dangling Vilma, and it's all rumor for now, he probably doesn't think Jonathon will gracefully take a move to SS or coverage LB, the same problem BB would face.

Seb noted Vilma has learned a lot about the 3-4 and should be better in 2007, I hope not but then I'm a Pats' fan. Sorry to dash your hopes, but if Vilma is on the market, it's because he's not working in the 3-4 and Mangini is trying for a win/win to get him somewhere he'll excell while getting value for a bad fit.

By the way, Insider81 sent me a PM pointing to Justin Warren TX A&M as an ILB prospect who reportedly uses good instincts to play faster than he times. FYI for folks.

 

[sebman2112]

We presume Vilma was a high priority for BB because of one brief note in Patriot Reign, we also presume BB intended to use him at ILB. Vilma is an outstanding coverage LB who could play SS. He might have started in Phifer's role and gradually gotten more ILB reps as he bulked up and learned the position. Too many presumptions.

If BB had plans for Vilma, Mangini would have had some clue as to what they were. If Mangini is dangling Vilma, and it's all rumor for now, he probably doesn't think Jonathon will gracefully take a move to SS or coverage LB, the same problem BB would face.

Seb noted Vilma has learned a lot about the 3-4 and should be better in 2007, I hope not but then I'm a Pats' fan. Sorry to dash your hopes, but if Vilma is on the market, it's because he's not working in the 3-4 and Mangini is trying for a win/win to get him somewhere he'll excell while getting value for a bad fit.

By the way, Insider81 sent me a PM pointing to Justin Warren TX A&M as an ILB prospect who reportedly uses good instincts to play faster than he times. FYI for folks.

I've been looking at Justin Warren the past few weeks, and he's an interesting prospect. Warren came in at 6'2.5" and weighed 245lbs at the combine. He does play faster, but that timed speed is really low 4.91-4.99.

I've been having a hard time finding any LB's above 6'1.5"-6'2" 240-245lbs who are fast, and have good coverage skills. I've got a really short list, let's put it that way. Some of the better all around backers are to small.

 

[Insider81]

I've been looking at Justin Warren the past few weeks, and he's an interesting prospect. Warren came in at 6'2.5" and weighed 245lbs at the combine. He does play faster, but that timed speed is really low 4.91-4.99.

I've been having a hard time finding any LB's above 6'1.5"-6'2" 240-245lbs who are fast, and have good coverage skills. I've got a really short list, let's put it that way. Some of the better all around backers are to small.

Along with Warren, Madison Miller is going to be available in the 6-7th round and possibly UFA. Miller is a guy who you will find at 6'4" 250lbs can REALLY run and cover. http://fightforthefans.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=7&Itemid=55
there is a comparison chart of most of the highly touted LB/DE and a few Safeties compared to Miller. If you youtube his name there is some video of him, and in a few days there will be some video of him doing defensive back SPECIFIC drills on the field. I REALLY think this guy will make an impact at the next level with his versatility and with only 8 teams showing interest in the NFL, and 4-5 (one being NE) with SERIOUS interest, it's a viable option for NE to get him in the 6-7, UFA range.

Just a few notes about the comparison chart: Miller has run an unofficial 4.48 for Miami, where he also did 20 reps at 225 (15 is listed from his attempts at Purdue that were done with a strained pectoral), and he's gained 4 pounds since the chart was made. The chart was made to compare players of around the same height or weight and a few safeties.

I do think that Warren can get the job done, and could be a VERY SOLID inside backer in the NE system, but if Bill is looking for a guy who can pull off some jack of all trades things, Miller could be the guy to clone Adalius Thomas (although a few pounds lighter), a guy who will work hard and play S/LB/DE if needed. I really look for NE to make a run at him.

Also, a note on private workouts: I recently (late last night) spoke with 4 agents representing different players and they all had the same sentiment regarding private workouts. They said that sometimes private workouts are scheduled to workout any questions teams may have about a player, so sometimes it's negative. The really weird thing, they all pointed to Jay Cutler. Example: last year, Denver didn't interview Cutler at the combine, didn't work him out, and ended up trading up for him in the draft. I would look at NE bringing Spencer in as a negative since there are more questions about his ability to play LB after his pro day (the main reason NE had interest), I also look at Washington bringing in Russell. Washington is probably wondering if Russell fell there, should we take him? I am sure they question his decision making and other things, so by bringing him in and getting that 1 on 1 look they can pick at him and see if he did fall if he's worth taking.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thank Rocky for us.

Along with Warren, Madison Miller is going to be available in the 6-7th round and possibly UFA. Miller is a guy who you will find at 6'4" 250lbs can REALLY run and cover. http://fightforthefans.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=7&Itemid=55
there is a comparison chart of most of the highly touted LB/DE and a few Safeties compared to Miller. If you youtube his name there is some video of him, and in a few days there will be some video of him doing defensive back SPECIFIC drills on the field. I REALLY think this guy will make an impact at the next level with his versatility and with only 8 teams showing interest in the NFL, and 4-5 with SERIOUS interest, it's a viable option for NE to get him in the 6-7, UFA range.

 

[patchick]

In another thread, dryheat wrote:

I love Willis' game, I think he's the best linebacker in the draft, but I think it's a coin flip whether he'll be productive enough in the Belichick 3-4 to invest two first round picks in. I think he belongs as a Mike in a 4-3.

That pretty much summarizes my exact thoughts on Willis. And it's made me ponder this impromptu equation:

impact = talent X fit X need

Guys like Carriker and Staley come up as legitimate Pats 1st-rounders despite marginal need because of their outstanding talent and fit scores. Patrick Willis, meanwhile, comes across as a terrific talent at a key position of need yet not a perfect fit. I'd never pass him up at #24 because I think he could succeed at the Pats' ILB position, but it wouldn't be the best use of his talents.

Meanwhile the more I watch Stewart Bradley, the higher he climbs. Clearly less talented but looks like an ideal fit, yielding a solid impact...and likely an excellent draft value, given that the talent part of the equation holds fairly equal across teams while the fit varies wildly. More gut reactions on highlight clips say that Brandon Siler looks pretty average on both talent and fit; Lawrence Timmons looks enormously talented and a terrible fit; Jon Beason simply looks all wrong. (I wish I could speak more intelligently on Beason, but he just doesn't look anything like a Pats ILB to me.)

So right now my ILB-or-bust board is pretty scant:

1. Patrick Willis (outstanding talent, average fit)
2a. David Harris (excellent talent, very good fit)
2b. Stewart Bradley (very good talent, excellent fit)
gap
3. Paul Posluszny (very good talent, very good fit)
gap
4. Anthony Waters (potentially excellent talent and fit, but hard to evaluate)
gap
5. Desmond Bishop (good+ talent, very good fit)

EDIT: oversight, left out Poz

 

[PatsFan37]

Also, a note on private workouts: I recently (late last night) spoke with 4 agents representing different players and they all had the same sentiment regarding private workouts. They said that sometimes private workouts are scheduled to workout any questions teams may have about a player, so sometimes it's negative. The really weird thing, they all pointed to Jay Cutler. Example: last year, Denver didn't interview Cutler at the combine, didn't work him out, and ended up trading up for him in the draft.

This is an excellent point and goes to the cloak-and-dagger stuff. If a team's been scouting a kid and hoping he'll fall into their laps or is considering trading up for him, the last thing they want is for another team to jump in front of them and nab him. So if they're sure of the kid, why alert the media with a private workout?

OTOH, every draft pick has the risk of being a bust. So it's a trade-off of the value of what they'll learn against the risk of another team trading in front of them to take the player they want.

Maybe that's all pretty obvious stuff, but what you said about Cutler is an example of how (I assume) Denver surprised other teams by keeping a low profile until the moment they traded for him.

 

[dryheat44]

And it's made me ponder this impromptu equation:

impact = talent X fit X need

Guys like Carriker and Staley come up as legitimate Pats 1st-rounders despite marginal need because of their outstanding talent and fit scores. Patrick Willis, meanwhile, comes across as a terrific talent at a key position of need yet not a perfect fit. I'd never pass him up at #24 because I think he could succeed at the Pats' ILB position, but it wouldn't be the best use of his talents.

Meanwhile the more I watch Stewart Bradley, the higher he climbs. Clearly less talented but looks like an ideal fit, yielding a solid impact...and likely an excellent draft value, given that the talent part of the equation holds fairly equal across teams while the fit varies wildly. More gut reactions on highlight clips say that Brandon Siler looks pretty average on both talent and fit; Lawrence Timmons looks enormously talented and a terrible fit; Jon Beason simply looks all wrong. (I wish I could speak more intelligently on Beason, but he just doesn't look anything like a Pats ILB to me.)

So right now my ILB-or-bust board is pretty scant:

1. Patrick Willis (outstanding talent, average fit)
2a. David Harris (excellent talent, very good fit)
2b. Stewart Bradley (very good talent, excellent fit)
gap
3. Paul Posluszny (very good talent, very good fit)
gap
4. Anthony Waters (potentially excellent talent and fit, but hard to evaluate)
gap
5. Desmond Bishop (good+ talent, very good fit)

Surprising nobody, our list looks very similar. I still see DeOssie as an ILB, so I'd put him in place of Poz. I even agree with your assessments of Siler, Timmons, and Beason.

I like the formula you've come up with. I've always said the player drafted is the one found at the intersection of value and need (assuming if a player doesn't fit at least somewhat he's not on the board), but I'm going to play around with your formula and my rankings to test some conclusions.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Bryan Andrews, DE, Wake Forest 6'5" 262 - He's reported to be rising on draft boards by NFLDraftScout.com. He has an impressive 3-cone from his Pro-day and may be a UDFA OLB conversion candidate:
Dates: 03/19/07
Height: 6045
Weight: 262
40 Yrd Dash: 4.81
20 Yrd Dash: 2.75
10 Yrd Dash: 1.58
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 18
Vertical Jump: 32 1/2
Broad Jump: 9'9"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.42
3-Cone Drill: 6.97

Per http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2006&org=749&player=48 he has 26 TT, 10 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and 3 QBH for 2006.

 

[Seneschal2]

If a team's been scouting a kid and hoping he'll fall into their laps or is considering trading up for him, the last thing they want is for another team to jump in front of them and nab him. So if they're sure of the kid, why alert the media with a private workout?

On that note, Darrelle Revis and Paul Posluszny as yet, have not been linked to the Pats in any way. No visits -- no workouts (that have been reported). Doesn't mean we like them -- doesn't mean we'll draft one of them. But if you look at both players closely, you'll find many of their intangibles and skills fit what the Pats seek in a prospect. Therefore, it's not too far-fetched to say that one of them is extremely high on the Pats board, they've scouted him very closely, and have no need for further evaluation of the player -- because the decision's been made.

There are other first round prospects who haven't been reported as visits/workouts -- not just those two. But look at the list of CBs and LBs:

• CB Leon Hall - PW/PV (#9 R1)
• CB Chris Houston - PW (#27 R1)
• CB Marcus McCauley - PV (#49 R2)
  
• CB Eric Wright - PW (#55 R2)
• CB David Irons - PW (#59 R2-3)
• CB Josh Wilson - PV (#65 R2-3)
• CB Daymeion Hughes - PV (#91 R3)
• CB Fred Bennett - CI (#102 R3-4)
• CB Ryan Smith - ASI (#153 R4-5)
• CB Usama Young - PW (#311 R7-FA)
• CB Geoff Pope - PW (#357)

• ILB Patrick Willis - PV (#11 R1)
• ILB Brandon Siler - PW (#50 R2)
• ILB David Harris - PW/PV (#63 R2-3)
• ILB Buster Davis - PW (#101 R3-4)
• ILB Desmond Bishop - PW/CI (#222 R6)

• OLB Lawrence Timmons - PW (#23 R1)
• OLB Jon Beason - PW/PV (#30 R1)
• OLB Rufus Alexander - PW (#61 R2-3)
• OLB Stewart Bradley - PW/PV (#103 R3-4)
• OLB Earl Everett - PW (#106 R3-4)