Ben Watson

[sebman2112]

Gotta disagree. The people who are going to LOSE receptions are Caldwell, Gaffney, and Brown (if he returns). Watson may lose SOME, but I have a feeling his YPC is going to be even HIGHER because the safeties will be that much farther back.

Watson has very good route running ability and I question whether his hands are that bad. You mention ball security, yet you don't mention he only had 3 fumbles. While 3 sounds like a lot, its not really. Not when you're doing something you've never been asked to do before. And that is be the primary receiver on the field.

Watson will continue to get his fair share of passes.

OH, the other area that will lose touches is the running game. Yep. You heard me. The running game. I expect this offense to be like 2005 where we are passing more than we are running. Because our receiver are so good.

I agree, but I will also say that I expect Maroney to have a really good avg, because With Moss and Stallworth it will be harder for defenses to key on the run. I've said this before but Laurence Maroney has really good vision, and his second gear is outstanding. I was watching him play at Minnesota, and once he got to the second level he blew by two DB's who were 15 yards downfield almost as if they were going slow. You could visually see his second gear kicking in, as he went from one speed to almost a kind of over drive. Seriously, put a RB with that kind of abililty in the same offense as Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth and he could have more than a couple 40-50 yard runs.

For those who don't know I'm talking about Maroney's 93 yard TD run.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

That's kind of what I'm thinking. He's going to have a high yards per catch, and maybe slightly fewer receptions (he already had a high ypc for a TE last year). Also, while Brady will likely be looking for Moss, Stallworth, and Welker first, the Defenses NE plays against will also be looking for Moss, Stallworth, and Welker first. This should allow Watson to get open more this season. I also think we should remember Brady used Watson more last year, and he's got a little more continuity with Watson than he will have with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, so he might be looking for Watson a little more than some think.

Watson catches the ball just fine. His problem is holding on and not fumbling when he gets hit hard. He should have more room to operate this season. I expect another +600 yard performance.
Also, let's not forget that a good tight end is like a QB's security blanket. When all the other options are covered, dump it off to the tight end. Although with Watson's freakishness he could turn a little dumpoff into more if the defense slips up. And it's pretty much impossible for your average linebacker to try to cover Watson 1 on 1.

I'm in agreement with these POVs. Watson's total receptions should be down, but I expect a much higher YAC (and similar production). Simply not catching the ball in so much traffic should help that. Many of his fumbles came on hard hits when he hadn't fully secured the ball (he's gotta do that much quicker). Having a touch more breathing, like for everyone else on this offense, will help him.

Don't forget, he's not gonna be the only guy with space out there on many of these plays. Welker is a pro at finding the soft spots and the two burners can torch most corners we'll face. Brady gonna fire it of to the FIRST open guy he see's. It may be Watson, it may not be.

 

[BelichickFan]

The other thing to remember is the pot will get bigger. The offense should gain a LOT more yards and stay on the field more. Maybe we'll pass more than last year. We probably will. But on 3rd and 8, instead of running off the field after an incomplete pass, we may now have a first down - and more chances for Maroney, Watson, whoever.

Last year we gained 5,369 yards on the season. If we gain, say, 6,000 this year that's over 600 additional yards that will be distributed around. So gaining offensive weapons doesn't automatically make others losers in yards if the overall yardage pot grows.

 

[Ichiro]

I love Ben Watson. He has wonderful athletic skills and great character. However, he seems to lack some of the fundamentals that the top tight ends have. He catches the ball with his body too often and doesn't "sit down" in zone coverage. He also starts to run before he makes the catch.
I think these weaknesses were magnified even further because of our lack of WRs last season. With all of our new weapons, the matchups will allow Watson to make more big plays, but have less catches overall.

 

[sebman2112]

I should also say that I don't expect Maroney's touches to go down (they'll probably go up slightly), but I expect the overall amount of runs to go down. See, last year NE would have Dillon run 13-16 times each game, and Maroney would run 13-16 times each game (for most of the season). This year I think Maroney will get more like 18-22 rushing attempts per game, while his backups will get less carries. I think it's going to be more if a primary back offense this season, with Faulk usually only seeing the field on third downs, and Morris only rushing if Maroney is tired. Maybe they use Morris or Hairston on short yardage/goaline attempts, but I also think they'll be throwing to Moss, Watson, Stallworth, and maybe Welker more often in the endzone.

I'm also really hoping they spend a lot of time during camp developing Maroney's pass catching ability, because the dump off pass/RB swing could be very useful this year. Maroney would still be getting touches, but it would actually be a pass, with Marony already on the edge. Anyways, camp, preseason, and the actually season itself should be very interesting this year.

 

[sebman2112]

The other thing to remember is the pot will get bigger. The offense should gain a LOT more yards and stay on the field more. Maybe we'll pass more than last year. We probably will. But on 3rd and 8, instead of running off the field after an incomplete pass, we may now have a first down - and more chances for Maroney, Watson, whoever.

Last year we gained 5,369 yards on the season. If we gain, say, 6,000 this year that's over 600 additional yards that will be distributed around. So gaining offensive weapons doesn't automatically make others losers in yards if the overall yardage pot grows.

I was thinking about that, too. Brady will probably have a 4,100-4,400 yard season, so there will probably be another 600-900 yards to spread around in the passing game. Brady had 4,100 yards in '05, so I think it's very possible for him to put up those same numbers this season.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

The other thing to remember is the pot will get bigger. The offense should gain a LOT more yards and stay on the field more. Maybe we'll pass more than last year. We probably will. But on 3rd and 8, instead of running off the field after an incomplete pass, we may now have a first down - and more chances for Maroney, Watson, whoever.

Last year we gained 5,369 yards on the season. If we gain, say, 6,000 this year that's over 600 additional yards that will be distributed around. So gaining offensive weapons doesn't automatically make others losers in yards if the overall yardage pot grows.

True, but IMO, many of those "extra" yards will come in clumps. More 30+ yd pass plays and such. So, Watson will likely get less balls thrown his way (the pot is MUCH bigger for Brady too), but he'll likey have more room to move translating to more YAC. End result, from what I see is 10-15 less balls, similar to perhaps a bit more overall production.

So, I will agree that total yardage will go up quite a bit, I'm not convinced that will translate, percentage wise, to a linear increase in # of offensive snaps. Don't forget, assuming we take yards in bigger clumps, we'll also see shorter (time and # plays) drives too.

In any event, I see more yards and a bigger pot that way, which will give everyone more yards, but I'm not sure that will automatically translate into # of touches for each player. For example Maroney's total Yardage may bloosom 30%, but his total carries may only grow 10%. Etc, etc, etc.....

 

[PatsFan37]

He was double covered last year because he was the 1st option. He will never be the first option on any passing play this year. I predict his total catches will go down, but his yards per catch, and catch % will go up.

Just think about it: if you are Tom Brady, how are you NOT looking for Moss, Stallworth, and Welker first?

I agree. We might look for an offense that varies between 2-TE, with Moss & Stallworth and Maroney, and 3 WR, with Moss, Stallworth, Welker and Faulk, and Watson at TE. The guys who stay on the field the most will be Watson and Moss, but with so many great targets, Watson won't be the first read on too many plays.

OTOH, you have to roll a safety to Moss and on a 2-TE package with Maroney, you better not play both safeties deep. That puts Watson singled on a LB, which should get him open down the seam. The Pats won't do it all the time, but when they do, Watson won't get hammered a half-second after the catch like this year. So the fumbles go down, percentages and YPC and YAC go up but the # attempts go down.

I'm real bad, real bad, with these x's and o's, so I'm open to a guy like Michigan Dave telling me exactly how wrong I am. And I've never played high school football.

 

[shmessy]

He was double covered last year because he was the 1st option. He will never be the first option on any passing play this year. I predict his total catches will go down, but his yards per catch, and catch % will go up.

Just think about it: if you are Tom Brady, how are you NOT looking for Moss, Stallworth, and Welker first?

You wrote that as if you were not aware that Tom Brady, time and time again, has shown the ability to check down to his 3rd or 4th receiving option.

You're point would be valid if the QB was Joey Harrington, however, if Moss and Stallworth (or whomever) is covered, Brady won't try to force it into them.

Watson is a winner, on and off the field. He is a lethal changeup for this offense and will keep opposing D's honest re: our WR's

 

[PatsFan37]

You wrote that as if you were not aware that Tom Brady, time and time again, has shown the ability to check down to his 3rd or 4th receiving option.

You're point would be valid if the QB was Joey Harrington, however, if Moss and Stallworth (or whomever) is covered, Brady won't try to force it into them.

Watson is a winner, on and off the field. He is a lethal changeup for this offense and will keep opposing D's honest re: our WR's

I agree about the latter, but his point is valid because Moss and Stallworth and Welker will get open a whole lot more than Caldwell and Gaffney and yes, even our man Troy.

 

[PatrioticDynasty]

With Moss, Stallworth and Welker on the field, my guess is that Kyle Brady would be on the field with Maroney or Faulk. Watson will not be asked to be a wide receiver this year. I expect his production to go down. Also, Thomas is a fine receiver.

Yeah, but Thomas just broke his ankle, I'm sure it will heal but those things can hamper a player, who knows....JMO.

P.D.

 

[bradmahn]

I think it's foolish to water down the offensive philosophy of this team and try to pigeonhole who has how many yards and why. There are plenty of plays designed to have the TE as the first read, as well as there being a great deal that have a RB first, flanker, split end, etc. All of these guys are going to get their touches, and what does it matter who makes the catch as long as the Pats are moving the ball.

Might I also add that Brady was extremely adept at making passes to his second, third and fourth reads even when he first came into the league. That has been with Troy catching 100 balls, and David Patten, and David Givens, and Deion Branch, all good receivers who were capable of getting open. Brady expects his receiver to be open at a specific spot, and if he isn't he's on to the next guy. To simply say "ah well, he won't have Caldwell or Gaffney not able to get open" is kind of ignorant.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Anyone expecting Brady to throw nothing but 30+ yard passes is fooling himself. There will still be plenty of short and intermediate routes to go around. Hopefully this year, there are also some successful deep routes mixed in. That will only open up the other routes.

As someone already pointed out, even if Watson is a secondary option Brady has never had any problem using his other options. We're talking about the greatest QB in the league at using all of his receivers and we're concerned he won't be able to find Watson open?

I can't see this team wasting its time running the ball. Even after watching the '01 and '03 teams control the clock through the air we as fans fell in love with clock-killin-corey-dillon and don't want to think there's another way. Bill belichick plays to his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. One of this year's weaknesses is only one quality running back who is in only his second year and got hurt last year. One of the team's strengths is a buttload of receiving options and Tom Brady. Expect the team to average something like only 20 carries a game, and to see a lot of passes on 3rd and 4.

As for what watson can control, his own skills, I remember a lot of his drops coming when he got hit hard as he was trying to catch the ball. safeties were able to key on him because they didn't have to worry so much about the WRs. Maybe I'm just suffering from selective memory here but I don't remember Watson dropping the ball much w/o it being caused by the defense.

for me, it also comes down to this. you have to choose someone to double-team. do you choose randy moss or ben watson?

 

[Born_a_Patriot]

I only have one word to say when it comes to Watson catching the ball
cositency cosistency confederacy consistency costanza....?

 

[maverick4]

Look at that list on the first page, the top 5 receiving tight ends all play with mediocre receivers. Thinking that Watson's total yard number will go UP is wishful, but flawed, thinking.

He'll be open a lot more this season than he was last season, yes, but he'll be targeted less as well.

 

[zippo59]

Look at that list on the first page, the top 5 receiving tight ends all play with mediocre receivers. Thinking that Watson's total yard number will go UP is wishful, but flawed, thinking.

He'll be open a lot more this season than he was last season, yes, but he'll be targeted less as well.

In order for a tight end to reach 900-1000+ yards they need to play on a team with bad receivers, but a tight end can still get 700-800 yards playing on a team with good wide receivers. So no, it is not flawed thinking that Watson's numbers will go up. I'm not saying he is going to put up Gates or Gonzalez numbers but 700-800 yards seem very doable.

 

[fgssand]

In order for a tight end to reach 900-1000+ yards they need to play on a team with bad receivers, but a tight end can still get 700-800 yards playing on a team with good wide receivers. So no, it is not flawed thinking that Watson's numbers will go up. I'm not saying he is going to put up Gates or Gonzalez numbers but 700-800 yards seem very doable.

I like all of your reasoning, but you may have come to the worng conclusion......it is very possible that Watson does go over 1,000 yards for the very reason that he is a good tight end now playing on a team with GREAT receivers...deep threats, slot men and a freak with a running game and a HOF QB.

Multiple targets will be wide open and Tom Brady will find them and hit them, in stride.

 

[PonyExpress]

Assuming his foot heels in timely fashion and without complications (profootballweekly reports that this is the case), IMO David Thomas is the best TE on the Patriots. He has terrific hands, great instincts, is a developing blocker and will become a 3rd down machine. In this offense he can be a Jason Witten. Watson is a great talent, but not as reliable, and Brady gravitates toward reliability over talent when deciding where to go with the ball. Having the two of them on the field simultaneously will be ideal. IMO K. Brady will be the odd man out barring injury. As far as numbers go, my early take on production is

Moss 70 catches 1100 yards 10 TDs
Stallworth 50 catches 700 yards 5 TDs
Thomas 35 catches 450 yards 4 TDs
Watson 30 catches 400 yards 4 TDs
Welker 55 catches 600 yards 2 TDs
Faulk 25 catches 200 yards 1 TD
Maroney 40 catches 300 yards 3 TDs
Caldwell/Gaffney/Washington 45 catches/500 yards/3 TDs

total: 350 completions/4250 yards/32 TDs

Maroney rushing: 300 carries/1400 yards/12 TDs

 

[zippo59]

I like all of your reasoning, but you may have come to the worng conclusion......it is very possible that Watson does go over 1,000 yards for the very reason that he is a good tight end now playing on a team with GREAT receivers...deep threats, slot men and a freak with a running game and a HOF QB.

Multiple targets will be wide open and Tom Brady will find them and hit them, in stride.

History begs to differ. When tight ends go over 1,000 yards they are playing on teams that have poor wide receivers.

 

[g-fresh]

Assuming his foot heels in timely fashion and without complications (profootballweekly reports that this is the case), IMO David Thomas is the best TE on the Patriots. He has terrific hands, great instincts, is a developing blocker and will become a 3rd down machine. In this offense he can be a Jason Witten. Watson is a great talent, but not as reliable, and Brady gravitates toward reliability over talent when deciding where to go with the ball. Having the two of them on the field simultaneously will be ideal. IMO K. Brady will be the odd man out barring injury.

Watson is not as reliable as who? Thomas? Thomas has showed some potential but thats it. I like him and think he could be a good player for us but it's way to early to call him more reliable than Ben Watson.

I also disagree that Kyle Brady will be the odd man out, we brought him in and are paying him well so that he can do what he does best and that is essentially be an extra O lineman. He will see plenty of time on the field and should keep us from missing Graham's great blocking. The TE's will probably be used more situationally as we won't have to rely on them to be pass catchers as much as last year, but I expect the depth chart to be Brady, Watson, Thomas, Mills. It seems to me that the primary characteristic of a TE in our offense is the ability to block well, so if Thomas becomes a better blocker than Watson he may move up a spot. I don't really see that happening though as Watson seems to be improving as a blocker.