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Belichick's 'prove it' time table.


Are we just going to cherry pick stats to create an argument. Brady was third in passing attempts in 2002. He was eighth in completion percentage. He was eighth in TD % in terms of attempts. He 24th in YPA. He was seventh in YPG. He was 9th in QB rating. Just because he had the most TDs doesn't make him elite. He was good, but he also had to throw a lot because the Pats' defense fell apart in 2002 and so did the running game.

Last year, Jameis Winston was second in the league in TDs. He will be available this offseason. Want him to be the Pats' starting QB next year?
That's fair that stats can be misleading. Didn't Arrington get 7 INT's one year and he clearly wasn't an elite CB. McCourty had 7 as a rookie, but was exposed badly playing man at CB by the playoffs. Eventually moved to S which he's very comfortable with.

Brady in 2001 seemed like Cinderella story and possible one year wonder. He proved in 2002 he wasn't a fluke. I guess what I want to say is that I felt confident with Brady by 2003 than another QB in the NFL. Aside from maybe Manning at that time, you can't name one QB you'd rather have than Brady.
 
Well that's the debate. You can't see how a guy who knows hes still loaded with fuel in the tank couldn't get a multi year deal or sufficient weapons to make his skill useful? Clearly Brady can still play at a high level. Brady believed it. Belichick didn't. I can't blame him for thinking he couldn't and I cant blame Brady for knowing he could.

You're misstating what Belichick's belief was. Not wanting to commit a long term deal to Brady wasn't "believing that Brady couldn't play at a high level". It was not wanting to commit a long term deal to the unknown. Every year Brady plays is unknown. There was only 1 other QB to play into their 40s in recent history. That was Brett Favre. Brady wanted a guaranteed 3 year deal. Belichick was worried about Brady breaking down physically and being stuck in a worse Cap situation than they were already in.

2020 was going to be a re-tooling year regardless of whether or not Brady was here. And the attempts to get weapons had failed despite the Patriots offering market value contracts. I point to the Pats losing out on Diggs, Cook (because of Gronk), Humphries, and Beasley. Hopefully, this off-season will be better for the likes of Harry, Asiasi and Keene so they can be more productive for the team.
 
Rodney has something to say about these Bill/Tom debate :)

 
The defenses of 2003 and 2004 were the driving forces behind the early success. And that is totally on BB. Heck, the Pats have lived and died by his personnel moves or lack thereof.

Belichick is also mostly responsible for Brady's development on the field. Brady get's credit for recognizing the need for plyometrics to extend his longevity and for his off-season habits.

But as many people have said, it was a symbiotic relationship. It took both of them to get to the 9 SBs and the 6 wins.
Well Brady proved that he doesn't need Bill to get to the Super Bowl. We don't know about the other way around.
 
But I don't believe that Brady would have been as successful in his development with another franchise. Hence, I don't believe he'd have the perks that he had with the Patriots. And it's very questionable whether or not another team would have tolerated Guerrero.

Brady may not have ever played in the NFL if he went to another team. Remember his rookie season, he couldn't even beat out Michael Bishop in the depth chart. Belichick just saw enough in him to carry four QBs.

Brady clearly wasn't ready to play, never mind start, back in 2000. He wasn't even good enough to dress. A lot of teams might have given up on him and there is a chance no one else would have picked him up or they might have picked him up and buried him on the practice squad.

Belichick did cultivate Brady. Weis slowly rolled out the offense to make him feel comfortable and build his confidence in his position. I am sure that was under the direction of Belichick. The fact that Belichick did have the team be defensive focused and not putting pressure on Brady to win the games week in and week out probably benefitted him early in his career.
 
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That's fair that stats can be misleading. Didn't Arrington get 7 INT's one year and he clearly wasn't an elite CB. McCourty had 7 as a rookie, but was exposed badly playing man at CB by the playoffs. Eventually moved to S which he's very comfortable with.

Brady in 2001 seemed like Cinderella story and possible one year wonder. He proved in 2002 he wasn't a fluke. I guess what I want to say is that I felt confident with Brady by 2003 than another QB in the NFL. Aside from maybe Manning at that time, you can't name one QB you'd rather have than Brady.

In 2003? You couldn't name another QB you would want other than Brady? Not Steve McNair? Not Brett Favre? And don't forget the late 90s and early 2000s were devoid of quality QBs and the league was still defensive minded. Brad Johnson and John Kitna were top QBs in the league in 2003.

You are romanticizing Brady early career.
 
You just listed 5 additional stats where he was in the top 10... of course that plus leading the league in TD's is elite. This year he was 19th completion percentage, 6th in TD%, 11th in YPA, 9th in rating.... are we going to say he's not considered elite right now?

Top 10 isn't elite. He was very good QB in 2003 in a league where there weren't a lot of good QBs. That doesn't make him elite though.
 
Does Belichick truly need to 'prove it'? Let's forget about BB for a moment, and look at some other all-time great head coaches.

Don Shula
Missed the playoffs six times in eight years towards the end of his career. 13 seasons with Dan Marino, who at that time was considered the GOAT - with zero rings and just one SB appearance during that time.

Tom Landry
Finished his career with three consecutive losing seasons. Began his career with a winless season; did not have a winning season until Year 7.

Paul Brown
Had one of the greatest QBs of all time (Otto Graham) for nine years, and then a player long considered to be the greatest player in pro football history (Jim Brown) for five seasons. Three NFL championships but none over his final 15 years as a head coach.

Chuck Noll
After his fourth Super Bowl Noll coached for twelve more seasons. During that time the best the Steelers did was 10-6 (and that was just once), with just two playoff victories and missing the playoffs entirely eight times.


Conclusion: in terms of coaching legacy the public will look past losing seasons or a mediocre finish to a career - with one caveat: that head coach must have at least one Super Bowl championship. (Otherwise how can one rationalize Tony Dungy being in the Hall?) Case in point:

Marty Schottenheimer
Here is a coach that few consider to be one of the all time greats, due to zero Super Bowl rings. Schottenheimer ranks 8th all-time with 200 wins, which is more wins than over a dozen Hall of Fame coaches (Noll, Parcells, Bud Grant, Joe Gibbs, Bill Cowher, Hank Stram, John Madden etc.). Jimmy Johnson is a good example: despite a career record of 80-64 he is in thanks to two Super Bowl wins while his 63rd ranked win total is overlooked.

Bottom line: Belichick has six Super Bowl victories as a head coach (plus two as a DC). The precedent has already been set: he has nothing to prove. He could finish his career similar to Landry, Noll or Brown and it shouldn't change a thing. To say otherwise is just media click bait/sports talk radio contrived controversy.
You outlined the case phenomenally for the fact that its hall of fame quarterbacks who make hall of fame coaches more often than not.
 
You outlined the case phenomenally for the fact that its hall of fame quarterbacks who make hall of fame coaches more often than not.

Did he though? Shula has two Super Bowl rings with Bob Griese and none with Dan Marino. BTW, go look at Griese's stats in both those Super Bowls. The Dolphins were a running team those years with Larry Czonka and the No Name Defense winning games.

Was Noll's success in the Super Bowl have to do more with Terry Bradshaw or the Steel Curtain defense?

Granted the NFL has changed and the QB is more important than ever, but that really didn't change until the Pats made Manning look so bad in the AFCCG in the 2003 season where they basically started to change the rules to making it harder to defend receivers. So in today's day and age, the QB is more important than the coach more often than not. But that wasn't the case early in Brady's career and it wasn't the case in New England. The Pats could have won Super Bowl 36 without Brady and another good QB, but they wouldn't have without Belichick and his masterful job shutting down the Rams' offense.
 
In 2003? You couldn't name another QB you would want other than Brady? Not Steve McNair? Not Brett Favre? And don't forget the late 90s and early 2000s were devoid of quality QBs and the league was still defensive minded. Brad Johnson and John Kitna were top QBs in the league in 2003.

You are romanticizing Brady early career.
Steve McNair? The guy who hasn't won a Super Bowl until that time? The one who lost in a shoot out to Brady and then lost to him again in 2003? I take Brady easily over McNair as McNair was not that good. Brad Johnson and Kitna over Brady is laughable. Come on. And yes, I was a major Brady homer since 2001.

Favre was a top QB in the late 90's but couldn't have it by the time Kurt Warner and the Rams arrived. And was a big time choker in the playoffs.

Late 90's was awesome in general. Remember the gauntlet in the AFC East?
 
Steve McNair? The guy who hasn't won a Super Bowl until that time? The one who lost in a shoot out to Brady and then lost to him again in 2003? I take Brady easily over McNair as McNair was not that good. Brad Johnson and Kitna over Brady is laughable. Come on. And yes, I was a major Brady homer since 2001.

Favre was a top QB in the late 90's but couldn't have it by the time Kurt Warner and the Rams arrived. And was a big time choker in the playoffs.

Late 90's was awesome in general. Remember the gauntlet in the AFC East?

McNair won the league MVP that year. If can’t acknowledge he was better than Brady in 2003 after arguing Brady was elite in 2003 because he was third in MVP votes, we have nothing to talk about.
 
McNair won the league MVP that year. If can’t acknowledge he was better than Brady in 2003, we have nothing to talk about.
Aaron Rodgers won this year over Brady. Who was better?
 
Rodgers was better. For the season? Absolutely Rodgers.
My initial argument was who I'd rather have on my team. He got beatdown vs the Ravens in 2000 and the Raiders in 2002. While McNair had a fine season, he was kind of "given" that award if you know where I'm going with that. He didn't do too well after 2003 did he?
 
I don't get why people have to make Brady elite from day one.
Because he immediately transformed the franchise from a sad sack of lifetime losers and propelled them to the greatest dynasty of all-time 1.0

Brady won 3 Super Bowl titles in his first 4 seasons with 2 SB MVP's. He wasn't some stiff otherwise either; he led the NFL in TD's in 2002 and passing yards in 2005. He was a multi-season pro bowler in earlier part of his career as well.

So Brady goes to a stacked team and he's already proven he doesn't need Belichick?
The "stacked team" was 7-9 in 2019. Gronk, AB and Fournette signed with Tampa Bay because of Brady who literally pulled the team together and brought them to the highest level. Stacked team? GTFOH!

Belichick is also mostly responsible for Brady's development on the field.
So what happened with Stidham? Etling? Sh*t he had a former league MVP this past season and squeezed the worst year of his career out of him. Belichick the quarterback whisperer... GTFOH!!

But without Belichick being amenable to Brady's unique training with a guy who many have called a "health charlatan", Brady doesn't become the guy he is today. How many people really think other teams would have been as amenable to Brady training with the guy, let alone going into business with him with a facility right next to their Stadium?
Are you for real?

Belichick hates Guerrero, he tossed his ass off the team plane and out of the team's training facilities. Belichick totally resented Brady's growing interest in the promotion of his training methods, etc. And Belichick has nothing to do with Brady and Guerrero opening up shop at Patriot Place... that's a Kraft deal.

Brady went sideways with his training methods according to Belichick. But the fact of the matter is Brady was not accountable to Belichick for his personal training methods, which by the way worked out great for Brady so Belichick should have just accepted it as opposed to being a total ****, which got him nowhere anyway since Kraft ultimately told Belichick to back off the Brady / Guerrero situation. Ultimately it was Belichick driving a wedge further between he and ironically the individual who allowed him to fleece the Krafts for $25 mil per season.
 
Did he though? Shula has two Super Bowl rings with Bob Griese and none with Dan Marino. BTW, go look at Griese's stats in both those Super Bowls. The Dolphins were a running team those years with Larry Czonka and the No Name Defense winning games.

Was Noll's success in the Super Bowl have to do more with Terry Bradshaw or the Steel Curtain defense?

Granted the NFL has changed and the QB is more important than ever, but that really didn't change until the Pats made Manning look so bad in the AFCCG in the 2003 season where they basically started to change the rules to making it harder to defend receivers. So in today's day and age, the QB is more important than the coach more often than not. But that wasn't the case early in Brady's career and it wasn't the case in New England. The Pats could have won Super Bowl 36 without Brady and another good QB, but they wouldn't have without Belichick and his masterful job shutting down the Rams' offense.
I think you are completely bonkers! Quarterbacks make coaches. I'm not talking about a quarterback with simply the most arm talent. When you combine a great talent + a great leader loved by all + an unquenchable fire + a relentless desire to be great you get a goat!! To say we could have simply won with another guy is unfair. Doubt you get a single teammate from the SB 36 team to agree with your take.
 
I am sorry he wasn't elite in 2003. That is rewriting history. He was a very good QB, but he wasn't elite yet. You are pointing to one game. Where was that eliteness when the Pats beat Cleveland 9-3 or Dallas 12-0 or Miami 12-0 that season? He was showing flashes of eliteness, but he wasn't there yet. The guy worked his ass off to get there.
Brady was in the top 3-4 QBs in 2003 and yes that is elite. Was he better a few years later? Yes, but the league was becoming more of a passing league too. Nice cherry picking a few scores. Brandy also threw for the 6th most yards in the league that year And they put up 25+ points many times. And the one game I pointed to was the SB and when when the pressure mounted he delivered.
 
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But I don't believe that Brady would have been as successful in his development with another franchise. Hence, I don't believe he'd have the perks that he had with the Patriots. And it's very questionable whether or not another team would have tolerated Guerrero.
By the time Guerra came along most teams would have made him their team trainer to keep a QB like Brady around. By every account I’ve heard Brady is one of the most personally driven athletes in sports. The guy who is so competitive that he hates to lose a locker room game of backgammon or a game of horse or just about anything. A guy who invites a receiver for a game of “catch” and it comes with unheard of intensity. I think it was Godwin or one of the Bucs who said when Brady asked him to have a game of catch he didn’t sleep the night before. After Tampa won on Sunday Ariens took the mike and talked about Brady bringing a new level of competitiveness to that team and setting an example to all the younger guys about practicing with intensity. i think most teams would have been able to develop or let Brady develop into the player he became.
 
Brady may not have ever played in the NFL if he went to another team. Remember his rookie season, he couldn't even beat out Michael Bishop in the depth chart. Belichick just saw enough in him to carry four QBs.

Brady clearly wasn't ready to play, never mind start, back in 2000. He wasn't even good enough to dress. A lot of teams might have given up on him and there is a chance no one else would have picked him up or they might have picked him up and buried him on the practice squad.

Belichick did cultivate Brady. Weis slowly rolled out the offense to make him feel comfortable and build his confidence in his position. I am sure that was under the direction of Belichick. The fact that Belichick did have the team be defensive focused and not putting pressure on Brady to win the games week in and week out probably benefitted him early in his career.

Please...I really want to understand what you mean by “Belichick did cultivate Brady.“ Can you be specific?

Did Mike McCarthy cultivate Rodgers? Did Any Reid cultivate Mahomes? Has Belichick cultivated Stidham? Kevin O’Connell? How about the brilliant offensive minded Kliff Kingsbury? Bledsoe sure had a lot of physical talent...no cultivation? Brian Hoyer sure looked like a moron in KC this year...hasn’t he been listening to the coach too?

See, this is the thing...you can only make your arguments by vague statements with no basis in reality. That’s always been the problem with the “magic dust” narrative about Belichick and Brady. Is there a single documented, specific event, fact, or story you can cite that explains how Belichick “cultivated” Brady in the sense that Brady was in any way different from any NFL player who has ever been drafted? (No). You would never say that another quarterback was “cultivated” by his coach; you would never say Belichick “cultivated” Lawrence Taylor.

“Weis slowly rolled out the offense to make him feel comfortable and build his confidence in his position. I am sure that was under the direction of Belichick.”

Where is your source for this? Can you cite anyone with direct knowledge? Virtually everything I’ve read is clear that Brady did a lot of his own film study and ran his own extra practice sessions with backups. There is zero evidence that the Patriots treated Brady any differently than any quarterback on any other football team, though you seem to think rather bizarrely that Brady might not have made it in the NFL with another team, despite that the Patriots provided the same basic coaching and guidance to Brady as all their QBs, similar to what most any team would. There was no special program, special system, special secret lessons, special training plan.

The fact that Belichick did have the team be defensive focused and not putting pressure on Brady to win the games week in and week out probably benefitted him early in his career.

Oh yes...a team that had lost 13 of its 18 games under Belichick, ranked dead last, 32 of 32 in teams most likely to win a SB in the 2000s, according to that Sporting News article in 2001 we all used to cite. The 2001 defense wasn’t elite. Throwing a young quarterback into an objectively horrible offense with virtually no playmakers.

Let’s give Belichick credit for drafting Brady (even though he, like anyone, did know what he was getting, he used the pick wisely), carrying him on the roster year one, promoting him to backup, and then sticking with him over Bledsoe, which was both wise and very ballsy. Those are things a coach does. A coach doesn’t make players or transmute skills to them. We don’t need to deify Belichick and make unproven claims to appreciate him and appreciate what he did to support Brady.
 


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