Dunlap and Morgan wont be there when the Patriots pick. Either they won't be coming out this year or will be top 10 picks.
I love Hardy. He's projected by many to go in the top 20, which means that the Pats would have to try to trade up. I think this kid will be an absolute stud. He's 6-5, 265 pounds, and has apparently been clocked at 4.67 seconds in the 40 yard dash. Now, he has some injury problems, but I honestly think he could be worth the risk. He's probably the best DE coming out this April.
If the Pats are looking to stick with the 3-4 next season, they could target someone like Cameron Heyward from Ohio State. He's 6-6, 285 pounds, and he's a great fit as a DE in a 3-4 system. According to most mocks, he could be had in the second round, which would allow the Pats to use their first rounder on the best available player, whoever that may be.
Jerry Hughes from TCU (6-3, 260, 4.64 40 time). He has 11 sacks this season, is a good fit to play DE in a 4-3 or OLB in a 3-4, and could slip to the second round. I think he would be a great success in New England.
Von Miller from Texas A&M (6-3, 240, 4.60 40 time). He has 17 sacks this season, and he's only a Junior. Some mocks compare him to Elvis Dumervil. Either he or Hughes could be a great pass rusher for the Pats in a 3-4 system.
A guy in the late 2nd or 3rd round I would like to see is Geroge Selive. High productive player out of USF. I wouldn't mind seeing him as our last pick in the 2nd round.
I would like to see something like
Hardy or Griffin in the first round.
Miller/Heyward/ Evan Royster in the 2nd round.
I think that is possible. You solve you're problem at both DE and OLB.
The Patriots are actually in a good position to select the best player available considering they have 3 second round picks. The greatest positions of need are DE and OLB, both can be addressed in the second round. If a new CBA isn't in place and 2010 is uncapped, the 2010 draft class will be extremely deep due to the fact that the new CBA will likely have a rookie salary cap. Many underclassmen will most likely enter the 2010 draft in hopes of landing decent sized contracts.
Derrick Morgan will go top 15, most likely.
Carlos Dunlap will likely slip a bit due to inconsistency and his DUI. He could go anywhere from 15 to 40, I think. It's unlikely he would slide further given his upside. I don't see someome risking a top 15 pick on him given his issues, but you never know - I wouldn't have predicted Darius Heyward-Bey would go top 10, either.
Hardy could also slip. He could go in the 15-20 range, or late 1st round, or somewhere later. People are divided on how far he could slide. I've always liked him a lot, and wouldn't be at all unhappy with him for the Pats.
Everson Griffin and Jason Pierre-Paul are wild cards right now. They will both likely be workout warriors and may go in the 1st round, but it's too early to tell.
I like Greg Romeus from Pittsburgh and Jeremy Beal from Oklahoma a lot. Both are flying under the radar right now. Romeus reminds me a bit of DeMarcus Ware - not quite as fast, but stronger. He's not quite as explosive as Hardy, but he's stronger against the run and doesn't have the injury history. Beal is very versatile, and does a lot of things well. I also like Austen Lane, a division II guy with a lot of upside who is a bit reminiscent of Jason Taylor.
Someone is going to slip. They can't all go top 20, or even 1st round. Some will slide to the 2nd or even 3rd round. I'd like to get 2 of them.
I think Cameron Heyward and Allen Bailey are the two 3-4 DE prospects who will shoot up boards. Both could easily go in the 1st round, possibly in the top 20. I'd take a hard look at either if they are available. I think Heyward could be a young Richard Seymour. Bailey is likely to blow away the combine.
Jerry Hughes is a beast and I'd consider him, but I like the guys above better - more length and strength to set the edge. Sergio Kindle, Ricky Sapp and Eric Norwood are also options, but I'm less sure about them.
I don't see Von Miller or George Selvie being options for us. Both are too slight and I doubt could hold up to the pounding that BB demands from his DE/OLBs.
I don't know where Evan Royster comes into the mix. I don't consider him a day 1 (1st 2 rounds) prospect, even if we were to look at RB that early.