An Off The Wall Theory

[manxman2601]

I'm intrigued by the Patriots getting Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett in for visits. Now this is probably nothing more than a) due diligence, b) trying to encourage teams into trading or picking the QB's earlier than necessary so that better players slide to the Pats or c) a genuine look at finding Brady's replacement with the coincidence of a good crop of high upside QB's and a plethora of picks. However, one other explanation has occurred to me, which whilst I don't necessarily see as being true, does sort of add up.

1. Before all the CBA brouhaha, I did wonder whether the confluence of a very young team and a multitude of picks would make trading picks for experienced players a worthwhile use of draft pick resources as we did in '07 with Moss and Welker. That of course is no longer possible.

2. The problem with teams looking at selecting QB's this draft is that they're not very good teams and have plenty of holes to fill. With plenty of question marks over what happens with free agency and RFA's, these teams can't really afford to pass up on giving away valuable high round picks to trade up to get the QB in a competitive market, or to pass upon quality first round position players to draft a project QB.

3. Whilst trading players isn't allowed, there's nothing to stop teams agreeing to trades in principle that can be affected once the new CBA is agreed.

Bearing the above in mind then, could the Patriots be considering selecting Mallett or Locker at 17, 28 or 33 and then trading them to a QB needy team that has a player the Patriots might want once a CBA agreement is in place? I see advantages both ways. The Pats get an experienced player rather than another rookie on an already young team (I'm really thinking defensively here) and possibly a 2012 pick to make up value whilst the QB needy team gets their QB whilst using their high round pick to draft a position player and without having to lose picks in a trade so they can replenish their squad in these uncertain free agency times.

It's just a theory and I think one of the first three possibilities is the most likely, but it would be like BB to exploit the peculiarities of this particular draft for the Patriots advantage.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I've read crazier theories, but even with the NFL draft Occam's Razor applies. In this case, Miami is QB hungry and has no second round pick, Sparano is toast, but Ireland has to be seen as planning ahead or he's toasted too. Thus a QB is not an unlikely pick for them at #15.

NE just spent or is spending two days each with two of the second tier of QBs, kids who were kicked around as Top 15 picks and still are in some circles. If you were expecting to coach against Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett wouldn't you love to know just where his head is? How does he process game film? What is his learning curve to be an NFL starter? Wha can you learn about his vulnerabilities watching film with him?

And if Miami is thinking QB, do they dare trust that NE is running a scam and trade back only to find out BB wanted Locker or Mallett for Brady's understudy all along? They alomst have to trust BB means business and take their QB at #15 instead of letting San Diego get ahead of the Pats for a player NE wants.

Machiavellian enough on it's own, it has the simplicity of being NFL business as usual.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I've read crazier theories, but even with the NFL draft Occam's Razor applies. In this case, Miami is QB hungry and has no second round pick, Sparano is toast, but Ireland has to be seen as planning ahead or he's toasted too. Thus a QB is not an unlikely pick for them at #15.

NE just spent or is spending two days each with two of the second tier of QBs, kids who were kicked around as Top 15 picks and still are in some circles. If you were expecting to coach against Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett wouldn't you love to know just where his head is? How does he process game film? What is his learning curve to be an NFL starter? Wha can you learn about his vulnerabilities watching film with him?

And if Miami is thinking QB, do they dare trust that NE is running a scam and trade back only to find out BB wanted Locker or Mallett for Brady's understudy all along? They alomst have to trust BB means business and take their QB at #15 instead of letting San Diego get ahead of the Pats for a player NE wants.

Machiavellian enough on it's own, it has the simplicity of being NFL business as usual.

I like this idea more than the OP. It's too risky. Imagine drafting one of the guys and then he goes out and gets a DUI while celebrating. Forget your informal deal.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I like this idea more than the OP. It's too risky. Imagine drafting one of the guys and then he goes out and gets a DUI while celebrating. Forget your informal deal.

Or try to hold Team X to the informal deal while you have a player you don't want and they share laughs with your peers around the NFL.

 

[NordicVoyager]

I thought you were going to be really Machiavellian and suggest that the Patriots were going to take both Locker and Mallet. You have seen how Bellichick likes to have two rookies at the same position to learn from one another.

That said I highly doubt the Patriots take Locker because he said on ESPN today that BB was not present during his Patriots on-site visit. I cannot imagine/falthom the Patriots taking a first or second round quarterback without BB spending time with him or breaking down film like he did last year's first round pick.

 

[manxman2601]

I've read crazier theories, but even with the NFL draft Occam's Razor applies. In this case, Miami is QB hungry and has no second round pick, Sparano is toast, but Ireland has to be seen as planning ahead or he's toasted too. Thus a QB is not an unlikely pick for them at #15.

NE just spent or is spending two days each with two of the second tier of QBs, kids who were kicked around as Top 15 picks and still are in some circles. If you were expecting to coach against Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett wouldn't you love to know just where his head is? How does he process game film? What is his learning curve to be an NFL starter? Wha can you learn about his vulnerabilities watching film with him?

And if Miami is thinking QB, do they dare trust that NE is running a scam and trade back only to find out BB wanted Locker or Mallett for Brady's understudy all along? They alomst have to trust BB means business and take their QB at #15 instead of letting San Diego get ahead of the Pats for a player NE wants.

Machiavellian enough on it's own, it has the simplicity of being NFL business as usual.

I think you are probably right and my theory started sounding more crazy to me right after I hit the submit button :bricks:

instead of letting San Diego get ahead of the Pats for a player NE wants.

Ajnd as ever with you, this makes a ton of sense. We match almost exactly with the Chargers needs, anything that can keep them at 18 suits us just fine.

 

[manxman2601]

Or try to hold Team X to the informal deal while you have a player you don't want and they share laughs with your peers around the NFL.

At leat I can defend my theory from this argument. If this critique was the case, the Patriots could just draft the player without getting him in for a visit. The drafting of the QB would have to be conditional on him being acceptable to the Patriots should the trade go awry and getting him in for a visit would be the best way to determine this. We are at a similar stage in Brady's career as the Packers were in Favre's when they drafted Rodgers. The QB would have to be acceptable as a Brady replacement just in case things went t*ts up.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

At leat I can defend my theory from this argument. If this critique was the case, the Patriots could just draft the player without getting him in for a visit. The drafting of the QB would have to be conditional on him being acceptable to the Patriots should the trade go awry and getting him in for a visit would be the best way to determine this. We are at a similar stage in Brady's career as the Packers were in Favre's when they drafted Rodgers. The QB would have to be acceptable as a Brady replacement just in case things went t*ts up.

Unquestionably, but if that were the case, why draft him to trade him?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Or try to hold Team X to the informal deal while you have a player you don't want and they share laughs with your peers around the NFL.

No kidding. Plus I'm sure the Commish would make us forfeit a 1st just to be a jackass

Unquestionably, but if that were the case, why draft him to trade him?

:yeahthat:

 

[manxman2601]

Unquestionably, but if that were the case, why draft him to trade him?

I suppose it's about getting the best value.

Best value: Getting a wanted experienced player plus 2012 pick in the imagined scenario

Medium Value: Getting a future Brady replacement and better backup than Hoyer

Lesser value: Using pick #28 on a player BB's not comfortable with and the possibility that trading within the draft may be difficult owing to the CBA uncertainty. The NFL has stated that trading future draft picks should be done at a teams own risk. As I see it, the risk is on the team accepting the future pick. Perhapss BB makes the judgement that that risk is unacceptable.

I'm not really tring to defend my theory, like I said, it's the most unlikely scenario. Just some silly season speculation.

 

[Off The Grid]

Without question, this one was WAY Off The Grid, but I would much rather read a well considered and crisply presented CrackPot Theory than the regurgitated drivel that some of the less inspired minds spew. Bravo!! :rocker:

 

[peterforpats]

just a question- why is everyone on this forum unhappy or down on hoyer? from what limited real game experience he's gotten, i think he could be really good. and don't tell me he isn't learning a ton from TB.

 

[sbpatfan]

just a question- why is everyone on this forum unhappy or down on hoyer? from what limited real game experience he's gotten, i think he could be really good. and don't tell me he isn't learning a ton from TB.

People view Hoyer as Brady's backup, when people talk about drafting a QB they're doing it in regards to finding Brady's future replacement. That being said, I think we have a good backup in Hoyer. I like his mentality. I think it's still a little early to draft Brady's replacement. I mean ideally, you'd want what - two to three years on the bench?

 

[Potstickas]

Drafting QBs is good business. I see BB drafting late round QBs as another way to invest / play the draft. Turning late round picks into future higher round picks.

 

[peterforpats]

People view Hoyer as Brady's backup, when people talk about drafting a QB they're doing it in regards to finding Brady's future replacement. That being said, I think we have a good backup in Hoyer. I like his mentality. I think it's still a little early to draft Brady's replacement. I mean ideally, you'd want what - two to three years on the bench?

aaron rogers on this team would be brady's backup- so what? i think BB doesn't think of hoyer as a "backup" any more than he thought of brady when bledsoe got hurt. i think BB believes that hoyer can do the job, so why waste a draft pick when there are more compelling needs, especially if BB doesn't think what he can get is better than hoyer.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I suppose it's about getting the best value.

Best value: Getting a wanted experienced player plus 2012 pick in the imagined scenario

Medium Value: Getting a future Brady replacement and better backup than Hoyer

Lesser value: Using pick #28 on a player BB's not comfortable with and the possibility that trading within the draft may be difficult owing to the CBA uncertainty. The NFL has stated that trading future draft picks should be done at a teams own risk. As I see it, the risk is on the team accepting the future pick. Perhapss BB makes the judgement that that risk is unacceptable.

I'm not really tring to defend my theory, like I said, it's the most unlikely scenario. Just some silly season speculation.

If you want to elminate that risk, then trade for present draft picks. But there's always an element of risk trading for future picks when there's no CBA in place yet.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

aaron rogers on this team would be brady's backup- so what? i think BB doesn't think of hoyer as a "backup" any more than he thought of brady when bledsoe got hurt. i think BB believes that hoyer can do the job, so why waste a draft pick when there are more compelling needs, especially if BB doesn't think what he can get is better than hoyer.

I'm not aware of anyone being down on Hoyer, most seem to expect him to be in play for a starter's job somewhere in the NFL in the next season or two.

I agree BB believes Hoyer has the mental & physical tools to put it together and be an NFL starter if Brady goes down; yet, BB also knows that he can be wrong about that, and that he has finite time lines with any of these kids before they move on to another team, choose to do something else with their lives, or are lost due to injury. Every draft NE goes out and rides the QB carousel looking for the next Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, Hoyer is a direct result of that and one I'm hopeful about. In this draft class I've identified several kids whom I consider reasonable prospects for Coach O'Brien to groom behind Brady. I'd think any kid who ever aspired to QB in the NFL would jump at the chance to develop in the NE system under a future HOF QB who, unlike a certain showboating clown from down south, isn't unwilling to be a mentor - as long as they know he's going to fight for every training camp and game rep.

Kids I like:
Kaepernick
Dalton
Weber
Yates
Froman
Chappell