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AdamJT13 predicts comp picks (5th, 6th, 6th, 7th)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by solman, Mar 20, 2007.

  1. solman

    solman Rookie

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    WOOHOO! (I am far too excited about this, and am going to seek immediate professional help).

    He says that we get four picks:

    5th [Givens]
    6th [Ashworth]
    6th [Vinatieri] and
    7th [Dwight]

    Its a little disappointing, since I think everyone was hoping for a 4th for Givens
    (although he says that this remains a possibility if the threshold for 4th round picks went up much more slowly than the salary cap).

    He says this is the most complicated year yet.

    I'll copy over the explanations here. You can find the original at http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3400211
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  2. solman

    solman Rookie

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    AdamJT13 explanation part 1

    Part 1 of AdamJT13's explanation

  3. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Re: AdamJT13 predicts the comensatory picks

    Part 2 of Adam's explanation:

  4. borisman

    borisman Rookie

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    So it looks like if Givens was paid an extra $200K/yr we'd surely have a fourth.

    I'm just wondering if J. Kraft knew we would likely receive a 5th so he was pushing the NFL for a 3rd so he'd get a 4th instead of a 5th.
  5. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    there is no way all these guys can make the team...we should trade some of them for a higher pick or for next year. then again none of these picks are worth very much, 1 5th, 2 6ths, and 1 7th roughly = 1 4th
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  6. 40yrpatsfan

    40yrpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Definitely disappointing if this is how it pans out. I think we were all expecting a 4th for Givens.

    Also disturbing is that our 2 biggest rivals - Indy and SD - are each projected to receive a 3rd.
  7. slam

    slam Rookie

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    I believe we can't trade these compensatory picks. We can trade our original picks, though.
  8. JustWinBrady

    JustWinBrady Rookie

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    Comp picks cannot be traded.
  9. solman

    solman Rookie

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    1. Because of Given's greatly restricted playing time (5 games), I don't think that an extra $200K would have been sufficient to move across the 4th round threshold on Adam's chart. Had he played the entire season, we'd have a much better shot.

    I don't think it would be shocking if all four 5th round picks turned out to be 4th round picks.

    It would be a little surprising if the Givens pick went to the 4th round, but the others didn't.

    If this happens, I will think its because the committee considered our remaining balance from players not listed here [Fauria + Davis + Chatham - Caldwell - Mitchell]. Adam has either concluded that the committee will not take this balance into consideration, or he has decided that compensating for such an adjustment is more likely to create new inaccuracies than remove existing inaccuracies.

    Based on my observation of past years, if the committee really does decide that 33 comp. picks are owed, I would expect them to compact some of ours (7th+5th+balance=4th) to make room for Green Bay. But Adam certainly outranks me on this one. If we wind up with a 4th, a 6th, a 6th and no seventh, there is a good chance that this is why.

    2. I don't think that Kraft believes he can influence the process by lobbying in such a specific way. Perhaps he could lobby for all of the thresholds to be reduced, or for injuries to receive less consideration, but even this seems unlikely. The Krafts would probably think it unseemly to do so. (If they're willing to give up a 7th to look like the good guys, they're certainly not going to start whining to the competition committee Polian-style. [BTW, why does Polian have to whine so much if he's on the damn committee.])
  10. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    The lesson to be learned by fans who salivate over compensatory

    picks is that you get less than 50 cents on the dollar for the players

    that you lose. The Pats will be lucky if they get one player who

    can make the 53 man roster from these picks. The picks do provide a little

    flexibility in trading away a late round non- compensatory pick to move

    up in a round or obtain a 2008 pick.
  11. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I've been saying 5, 6, 6, 7 for a while now (around 1 month), but for some reason people didn't believe me.
  12. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    When will this be decided...just curious. Even if it is just 3 picks, it gives the team an opportunity to draft a young player who may make a difference in a year or so. The fact that the team has already traded a few picks away makes these picks a bit more valuable to the team.
  13. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Because Pioli had said he thought that we would get a 4th.

    All respect intended, who do you think most people would tend to believe?
  14. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    We did land a pretty decent player with our 6th round comp pick in 2000.
  15. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Not to long from now, actually. The Owners meeting is March 25th, and if I remember correctly the comps are usually assigned around that time, or not to long after.
  16. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Put me in the I thought and still do 5th camp. Pioli is de-facto lobbying for a 4th; good for him.
  17. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Here is the problem, if you read the interview with Pioli he said it would either be 5, 6, 6, 7 or 4, 6, 6, 7, Pioli said it could be either a 4th or a 5th (for Givens), and that he was not sure. How did this become he said it was going to be a 4th?
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  18. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    Because we believe what we want to believe.:rocker:
  19. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The fact that a team can't trade these comp picks hurts a team like the Pats. The Pats are a deep team with realistic playoff aspirations. I don't understand why forcing teams to draft what may essentially be camp fodder is good for those players and good for the league. Many will get cut late in camp and have to drift around the league without the benefit of a full training camp with there new team. Allow market conditions to dictate the value of these extra picks by including them in the tradeable market.
  20. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    That 6th round comp pick in 2000 really sucked for us. And last year the Saints were forced to use their 7th round comp pick. They used it on a kid named Colson.

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