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AdamJT13 predicts comp picks (5th, 6th, 6th, 7th)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by solman, Mar 20, 2007.

  1. solman

    solman Rookie

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    WOOHOO! (I am far too excited about this, and am going to seek immediate professional help).

    He says that we get four picks:

    5th [Givens]
    6th [Ashworth]
    6th [Vinatieri] and
    7th [Dwight]

    Its a little disappointing, since I think everyone was hoping for a 4th for Givens
    (although he says that this remains a possibility if the threshold for 4th round picks went up much more slowly than the salary cap).

    He says this is the most complicated year yet.

    I'll copy over the explanations here. You can find the original at http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3400211
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  2. solman

    solman Rookie

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    AdamJT13 explanation part 1

    Part 1 of AdamJT13's explanation

  3. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Re: AdamJT13 predicts the comensatory picks

    Part 2 of Adam's explanation:

  4. borisman

    borisman Rookie

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    So it looks like if Givens was paid an extra $200K/yr we'd surely have a fourth.

    I'm just wondering if J. Kraft knew we would likely receive a 5th so he was pushing the NFL for a 3rd so he'd get a 4th instead of a 5th.
  5. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    there is no way all these guys can make the team...we should trade some of them for a higher pick or for next year. then again none of these picks are worth very much, 1 5th, 2 6ths, and 1 7th roughly = 1 4th
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  6. 40yrpatsfan

    40yrpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Definitely disappointing if this is how it pans out. I think we were all expecting a 4th for Givens.

    Also disturbing is that our 2 biggest rivals - Indy and SD - are each projected to receive a 3rd.
  7. slam

    slam Rookie

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    I believe we can't trade these compensatory picks. We can trade our original picks, though.
  8. JustWinBrady

    JustWinBrady Rookie

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    Comp picks cannot be traded.
  9. solman

    solman Rookie

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    1. Because of Given's greatly restricted playing time (5 games), I don't think that an extra $200K would have been sufficient to move across the 4th round threshold on Adam's chart. Had he played the entire season, we'd have a much better shot.

    I don't think it would be shocking if all four 5th round picks turned out to be 4th round picks.

    It would be a little surprising if the Givens pick went to the 4th round, but the others didn't.

    If this happens, I will think its because the committee considered our remaining balance from players not listed here [Fauria + Davis + Chatham - Caldwell - Mitchell]. Adam has either concluded that the committee will not take this balance into consideration, or he has decided that compensating for such an adjustment is more likely to create new inaccuracies than remove existing inaccuracies.

    Based on my observation of past years, if the committee really does decide that 33 comp. picks are owed, I would expect them to compact some of ours (7th+5th+balance=4th) to make room for Green Bay. But Adam certainly outranks me on this one. If we wind up with a 4th, a 6th, a 6th and no seventh, there is a good chance that this is why.

    2. I don't think that Kraft believes he can influence the process by lobbying in such a specific way. Perhaps he could lobby for all of the thresholds to be reduced, or for injuries to receive less consideration, but even this seems unlikely. The Krafts would probably think it unseemly to do so. (If they're willing to give up a 7th to look like the good guys, they're certainly not going to start whining to the competition committee Polian-style. [BTW, why does Polian have to whine so much if he's on the damn committee.])
  10. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    The lesson to be learned by fans who salivate over compensatory

    picks is that you get less than 50 cents on the dollar for the players

    that you lose. The Pats will be lucky if they get one player who

    can make the 53 man roster from these picks. The picks do provide a little

    flexibility in trading away a late round non- compensatory pick to move

    up in a round or obtain a 2008 pick.
  11. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I've been saying 5, 6, 6, 7 for a while now (around 1 month), but for some reason people didn't believe me.
  12. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    When will this be decided...just curious. Even if it is just 3 picks, it gives the team an opportunity to draft a young player who may make a difference in a year or so. The fact that the team has already traded a few picks away makes these picks a bit more valuable to the team.
  13. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Because Pioli had said he thought that we would get a 4th.

    All respect intended, who do you think most people would tend to believe?
  14. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We did land a pretty decent player with our 6th round comp pick in 2000.
  15. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Not to long from now, actually. The Owners meeting is March 25th, and if I remember correctly the comps are usually assigned around that time, or not to long after.
  16. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Put me in the I thought and still do 5th camp. Pioli is de-facto lobbying for a 4th; good for him.
  17. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Here is the problem, if you read the interview with Pioli he said it would either be 5, 6, 6, 7 or 4, 6, 6, 7, Pioli said it could be either a 4th or a 5th (for Givens), and that he was not sure. How did this become he said it was going to be a 4th?
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  18. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    Because we believe what we want to believe.:rocker:
  19. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The fact that a team can't trade these comp picks hurts a team like the Pats. The Pats are a deep team with realistic playoff aspirations. I don't understand why forcing teams to draft what may essentially be camp fodder is good for those players and good for the league. Many will get cut late in camp and have to drift around the league without the benefit of a full training camp with there new team. Allow market conditions to dictate the value of these extra picks by including them in the tradeable market.
  20. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That 6th round comp pick in 2000 really sucked for us. And last year the Saints were forced to use their 7th round comp pick. They used it on a kid named Colson.
  21. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Political gamesmanship 101, he has been tabled or voted down in committee and is trying to influence his fellows through public channels. Like any spoiled child the bastich wants what he wants and he's going to get it through repitition and irritation.
  22. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    This is why I was so upset about Givens' season-ending injury. Firstly, because DG's a good kid who worked extra-hard to make himself a valued commodity, and, unlike Meion, he left NE with no hard feelings. Secondly, because his lack of production would adversely effect our compensatory renumeration.

    p.s.: Why should the effin dolts receive a 3rd for Edgerrin James? He didn't do jack shyte for the Cardinals...while we only get a 6th for the Vinitraitor? Un-effin-believable. The NFL's love affair with the dolts continues.
  23. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's a pretty safe bet to say that the Pats will not be getting any comp picks next year. If you think about it, the spending spree makes sense, once you signed Thomas, you were pretty much not going to get any comp picks, so you might as well go out and sign as many FA as you can.

    Look for some draft day trades which garner the Pats extra picks in the 2008 draft to compesate for the lack of comp picks next year.
  24. the taildragger

    the taildragger Rookie

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    wouldn't surprise me if SD got a low 2nd rounder for Brees...they probably deserve it....obviously that would give them leverage to get whoever they want this year.
  25. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It'd surprise a lot of other people, though, since the rules say comp picks start at the end of round 3.
  26. Lampshade

    Lampshade Rookie

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    I'm intrigued to see what we get for Vinatieri. I can't think of a similar circumstance where a player was so highly valued around the league, so productive for his team, but due to being a kicker didn't register that high on contract average. On the other hand I guess if teams valued him more they would have paid him more!

    His case should certainly prove one way or another whether contract size is BY FAR the most important consideration.
  27. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The comp picks start at the end of the third round.

    I used AdamJTs formula back in Feb and came up with this:

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=50690&page=2

    In the thread we assumed that not only will San Diego get a third for Brees, they should also land at least a fourth for Hallen, and Reche's number warrant another pick for them too.
  28. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Teams pay players based on how important they think the players are to competitiveness. If having a better kicker could turn an average team into a great team, franchises would be willing to pay $5-6M/year to get a pro bowl kicker. Kickers don't make this much of a difference, and consequently franchises aren't willing to pay.

    Also, I think that the data from previous years has been sufficient to establish that contract size is far and away the biggest determinant.
  29. Isaac

    Isaac Rookie

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    I completely agree. Does anyone understand the justification for why they can't be traded? Someone had to have suggested it at some point, I don't see any reason for it.
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2007
  30. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Rookie

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    Not necessarily. Givens missed a lot of time with injuries -- he played only 23 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps, played only one play on special teams and got placed on IR on Nov. 14.

    Last year, I didn't lower players' values enough when they had a low percentage of playing time, even because of injuries. So I went back over the past few seasons to try to pinpoint how much to lower them, and I came up with a percentage range (I should be able to narrow it somewhat after this year's comps are announced). Anyhow, Givens' playing time dropped his value below the other fifth-round picks. It would take about another $600,000 per year to put him above the other fifth-round picks, which may or may not be enough to put his comp in the fourth round.

    But like I said in my post, the NFL might not have raised the value ranges as much as I think they will, and Givens (and other projected fifth-round comps) might be worth a fourth-round pick anyway.

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