A few comments on the OP and subsequent comments
1. The OP would have you belielve that Wes Welker is the only receiver in the NFL who can run a 5 yard, in/out option route. While he might just be the best at it right now, there are other guys who would be very good at it as well.
If that is all you think Welker does, there is no wonder you are so incredibly wrong on this topic.
2. The concept that if Welker is gone, the Pats offense will become different is not crazy. The Pats have always been a week to week game planning team, and clearly that has worked for them. Since the OP is asking how the a Welkerless offense will change, there is a lot of history that says it can and will evolve.
The scheme of the offense revolves around Welker. The week to week play calling is within the framework of that scheme.
3. I think the Pats created enough offense to win the Ravens game, despite losing the TO battle 2-0. The Ravens scored all 4 times they were in the red zone, while the Pats went 1-4. It was as simple as that.
13 points is not enough to win. Yards do not win games. The red zone is a huge part of what an offense produces. Yards between the 20s and no points is useless.
4. I don't buy into the concept that the offense "runs through Welker" as a general philosophy. It certainly did THIS year, but that was because of the injuries. In 2011 the TE's (IIRC) accounted for over 2000 yds of receiving and 26 TDs, so to opine that in 2011 the "offense went through Welker" would be absurd.
There is nothing to buy into, it is a fact. Regardless of who is catching the passes, the role of Welker is the center of the play design, the way the team is defended, and the game planning. If teams take away Welker, that creates the opportunities for other players. Ken, you have more knowledge than you are allowing yourself to show here, because you don't like the answer that knowledge leads you to.
5. If Hernandez/Gronk/Edelman had been healthy, Welker's individual stats wouldn't have been as high
They were higher in 2011 when all of those players were healthy, so exactly what are you basing this on? Every shred of evidence says that Welker gets open better than anyone in the NFL. If the defense does not take him away, he gets open and gets the ball. If the defense takes him away it creates for others. When Gronk and Hernandez are healthy, it makes defenses choose, leading to more opportunities for Welker. When Edelman is healthy he plays a little and gets open once in a while.
6.By the end of the year, Brady's receiving options had shrunk tojjust 3, and that made the Pats much easier to defend ultimately. Yet they STILL managed over 440 yds of offense
Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd, Vereen, Woodhead, Hooman, Branch, Ridley were all 'receiving options'. Your point seems to prove Welkers value as he had 248 receiving yards in those 2 playoff games.
7. I question the coaching staff on why the RB's and other TE's were never fully integrated into the offense, even if only for quick outs and dump offs. We NEVER established any of them as a potential threat, and thus again helped the Ravens D defend us.
They were not consistently getting open. Although you have been arguing it for years now, the fact is you can't just assign a pass pattern to a jag and he automatically gets open.
8. One of the hardest things for me personally to get over in the Ravens game was the fact that 3rd and 2 had clearly become a passing down for the 7th best rushing attack in the league. How did THAT happen? We must have failed on about half dozen on of those situations without ever trying a run or even a play action pass. Again making the job of defending us easier. (sorry for this OT rant, but the ravens game results have been mentioned)
3rd and 2 is a passing down for almost every team now. We converted 46% of 3rd downs. 3 drops, a conversion called back by a penalty, and Brady running into the ref were plays there to be made, which would have made up 80%. 3rd down play calling was not close to the problem in this game.
9. For 6 years Welker's durability and reliability has been past outstanding. Its been amazing, especially at his size. But players like Manning, Brady, and Mankins all had amazing durability streaks that were even longer....until they didn't. To think that he isn't under an injury risk, just because it hasn't happened yet makes no sense.
You are simply reaching here.
10. IIRC, many people claimed that by the end of the Moss era, we were forcing too many balls to him. Predictions of doom were rampant when he was traded.
NO ONE said that.
Randy Moss was a "once in a generation player" No one in the league did what he did better. Yet when he was traded, his production was shifted and upgraded to Gronk and Hernandez and the offense actually improved as a whole. Why would we think that a similar result couldn't happen again.
Moss wasn't even trying in 2010.
Once again with the 'it happened once so its proof it will happen now' logic?
Moss was never Brady's go to guy, Welker always has been. While the misinformed thought Moss got Welker open, the opposite actually has been proven to be what happened.
11. Even if Welker returns, which would be the best situation, his numbers would likely decline, even if he were at his best and healthiest.
Who cares? Its not about numbers, its about havng the best offense we can.
It is likely that the Pats will run the ball more.
How? They ran the 2nd most in the NFL, and have the GOAT at QB.
That they will involve the RB's more in the passing game,
Why? Because you want to list that as an argument? There is no evidence this is happening.
and of course a healthy Gronk and Hernandez will take targets away from him.
Again, when they are healthy Welkers production goes UP.
Given his product and importance this season, Welker earned every penny of his franchise tag. Would he be worth $10MM if his production dropped to 80/850, playing in an offense that was even more successful with 2 healthy TE's and a better running game?
Again, your ignorance of the offense creates a silly question that is irrelevant.
12. Since the OL became a topic here, the question of Volmer comes into play. Volmer is one of the top RT's in the game, and has proven he play LT as well. If he isn't resigned, I think it will tell us a lot about what the Pats think about Marcus Cannon. If they think he's ready, I think they'll let Volmer walk, even though the thought of a Cannon/Volmer right side.combination makes me tingle.
You must factor in the cost. What they think of him includes a price tag.
13. What the Pats end up doing with Edelman will also be telling, but I'm not exactly sure what it says. Clearly they thought Edelman and Welker could coexist on the same field. So if they resign Edelman does it mean the Pats won't waste one of their top 2 picks on a WR, or will, in their minds, make it easier to let Welker walk? The 3 weeks leading up to FA WILL be fascinating. The speculation possibilities will be AWESOME.
Considering Lloyd is the only WR under contract (legit one) virtually the entire position is being rebuilt (the same or differently).
14. It will be interesting to see what the Pats will do if Welker walks. Personally I think the Pats would re-sign Edelman and add finally add a big (6'3+), strong WR who can play outside the number. If he has deep speed as well, so much the better. Edelman would become a different kind of slot receiver, while the TE's and running backs would take care of the middle of the field.
In this event, Edelman would not see much of the field. He wont play ahead of the 2 TEs, or Lloyd or the 6'3+ outside receiver.
It would be a more explosive offense, and even more effective in the Red Zone. The ball would be spread around more in the passing game, though overall yardage might shrink because he run the ball more. I could be a more effective offense in scoring points, because as the Ravens game clearly pointed out, a lot of yards don't mean a lot of points.
You just said the offense was fine because it had 440 yards????????
I don't know how you get a higher scoring offense by taking away the most productive player from an offense that has been top 5 in history in scoring 3 timjes in 6 years. If you move the focus of the defense to downfield routes, the offense will become more of a short passing offense by taking what it is given, not more explosive. And again, I don't think we try to become the team that runs the ball the most in the league to take it out of Tom Bradys hands.
