A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[Gumby]

Nice try, but you can't claim that a deal signed in march 2010 cost them a player they traded in September 2009. Seymour was unhappy in NE and wasn't going to get the money he wanted here regardless of what they were going to do with anyone else.


I do give you credit for trying though, I have a feeling that very few are going to do so because there simply is no evidence that it has happened. It will be interesting to see in anyone can come up with players they lost because of those deals because in all honesty i really can't think of one.

Sorry but that is about as close to a known fact as you can get in private negotiations. The Pats traded Sey because they couldn't afford both Sey and Vince. The fact that BB didn't use all that cap room (created in 2010/2011/2012 seasons) created by trading Sey until the after the 2009 season was over doesnt negate the point. BB doesnt like doing contracts in season (if done - primarily they are done in bye weeks).

Seys unhappy in NE was all about Benjis and 2-gap vs 1-gap. No one knows, but IMO if Sey got his benjis he would have grimaced through the 2-gap. He certainly learned his lesson going to a loser and squandering his HOF/allstar-rep capital. He got to be a 1-gapper and still doesnt have the #s. He may have cost himself a place in history by demanding the payday.

WITHOUT GOING INTO PLAYERS BY NAME:
Your assertion that NEP werent restricted from pursuing certain players or couldn't re-sign certain of their own due to cap restrictions is just FOLLY at the basic level of capology understanding-management philosophy.

There are 53 players on the team plus PS, plus other scrap heap throughout the year. You have to divide the cap amongst them across a 3 to 6 year time horizon. THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY that ANY ONE DECISION of more than $5M per YEAR DOESN'T ALSO AFFECT ALL OTHER DECISIONS.

maybe that one decision doesnt always negate other choices; but it does cause either delays or pissing contests (a la Mankins and Welker) as a team tries to negotiate multiple moving targets.

BB assigns cap value to positions to provide DISCIPLINE to the process. That discipline prevents EMOTIONAL reactions that lead to cap HELL. Unfortunately it also causes some hard feelings sometimes.

 

[ATippett56]

We, on the other hand have used a "spread-the-wealth" approach which resulted in a deep bench and every time there's been a major injury to a player, that player was more often than not, adequately replaced.

That's not the case anymore with the New England Patriots for the 2013 NFL Season. The top ten players on the New England Patriots roster for the 2013 NFL Season account for 65.5% ($68.4 million/$104.4 million) of the salary cap dollars currently expended.

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2013

 

[Gumby]

That's because they [Dolts] chose to play a high-risk game by putting most of their money into the 22 players that are on the field most of the time which meant a season-ending injury would be devastating to them.

We, on the other hand have used a "spread-the-wealth" approach which resulted in a deep bench and every time there's been a major injury to a player, that player was more often than not, adequately replaced.

That is dead on.

Also,
The DOLTS (and to some extent the JESTERS and the Redskins etc) all got UNEXPECTEDLY BAILED OUT by the OMMISHIONERs incompetent management of the league.

Have we forgotten already the UNCAPPED YEAR???
Have we also forgotten the Dolts 2-14 season??

The NEP cap mgmt was built around a strategy that the NFL would have a predictable CONSTRAINED CAP. Teams that took the BOOM-BUST-REBUILD cap strategy (and got lucky in their timing) got a big GET OUT OF JAIL FREE card from GoToHell and his inability to get to a CBA.

The Dolts also took advantage of their Suck-4-Luck campaign and dumped salary while they were eating the long-awaited Pay-Me-A-TON retribution. That meant they took all that BUST-REBUILD in just one year; and glory be; they got PM-II as a bonus. Lucky bastids. but not something you can plan on. For every Dolts success there are 5 Redskins type horror stories.

 

[Ivan]

WITHOUT GOING INTO PLAYERS BY NAME:

That's because you can't. They spent plenty of money on players like Haynesworth, Ocho, Fanene, and others, and if they could afford them then there is no way they couldn't afford to re-sign those they really wanted to re-sign.

the patriots have not been struggling to re-sign the players they want and there's no evidence any of thosee deals have hamstrung them in free agency. Which is why people have to grasp for straws and go back to seymour. they are well run and in good cap shape and can afford fair market deals with their best players, they just can't afford to waste money, and 4-40 for welker is no waste of money.

 

[BrickPat]

On a side note while this obviously doesn't hold true for all players I can see Welker accepting the cliched home town discount. Granted that Welker will not play for peanuts but he knows how good it is here.

Granted its speculation but what do you think that he is asking for by way of money/years? Do you guys think that Welker is demanding a contract that is far above his skill set or will outweigh his contribution to the offense?

 

[ATippett56]

Do you guys think that Welker is demanding a contract that is far above his skill set or will outweigh his contribution to the offense?

That is the proverbial $64,000 question.

 

[Gumby]

With all due deference to Ivan's opinion (which frankly I'm now ignoring without actually hitting the button); I just want to make one more cap related observation to the re-sign WW.

IMO due to the Gronkadez re-signings earlier in the year; the chances of a long-term WW deal are much greater this year than last.

I think there is a lot more certainty & stability of the cap for the mid-term (3-4 year) timeframe and the NEP themselves are in a much more known cap situation. TB still has 2years left on his contract and the major O players (RBs-TEs) are locked up for at least another year. Edeldude and possible OLmen are the primary exceptions and some think 11 isn't considered a "major O" player yet. So within the O side of the cap; I think the Pats NOW have enough certainty to give WW a longer term deal.

Last year I dont think they were prepared to give him that 3-year deal when they didnt know so much both internally and externally.

They were in the first year of the new CBA (jul 11), the new tv deal had just gone in effect [which drives the cap] (dec 11) and by that time these external events were known WW and Pats had already passed the optimal time the pats like to do contracts (pre-season) and started to burn some bridges. That drove them to do the franchise tag (Mar 12).

IMO you can maybe blame the Pats maybe for not getting a 3-year deal done after March and before the franchise cutoff date of Jul 12; but legitimately they had concerns about his age, how replaceable he was, and there were plenty of other OPEN ISSUES on the cap management front.

They had just WASTED $6M on the guy who was supposed to be the new Moss and take the top off. I loved the Ocho signing; but it didnt work. All these type things seem like they have pendulum affects: The lack of O wr talent drove them to swing for a HR w/ Ocho; his failure drove them to revert to BORG-CAPman mentatility (we have a slot for your position - YOU WILL COMPLY with our cap slot ), which drove them to no deal.


I think the lessons learned from the mankins deal drove them to act rationally with Gronkadez. I am CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC that the lessons learned from the Ocho-WW debacle will cause them to fix the WW situation THIS TIME for the near & mid-term.

I believe WW will start to tail off in his (to-date insane ) production over a 3-year deal. But I also think an incentivized 3-year deal is doable on both parties & WOULD BE WELL WORTH IT TO NEPs. BUT, I think WW is undoubtedly in a stronger position than he was last time; so if he doesnt care about the 10-20% bump in his stat totals that TB and NEP give him, doesnt want to give ANY HT-discount, and just wants the $$; he will end up elsewhere. That would be very regrettable, but not the end of the world.

 

[patfanken]

I think Vollmer is gone.

It's certainly a realistic possibility, Andy. On one hand his back has to be a big concern in any long term deal, on the other hand, its his back that might keep the price for his services more reasonable than they would be if he were completely healthy

We all can acknowledge that, when healthy, Volmer is a top 5 RT in this league. Plus he's proven he can play LT well when needed.

Ya know if I had to choose between Welker and Volmer, the thing that would make me favor Volmer by just a hair, is this. Welker, and this goes for any WR, on a good day will impact the game 10-15 plays/game. OTOH, the OT will have an impact the game on all 70+ plays.

The 2nd reason, is more mundane. The simple fact is that there are more people on this planet that can do what Wes Welker does, than can do what Sebastian Volmer can.

The 3rd reason would be this. I would acknowledge that if we resign Edelman for, say, 3MM/yr he wouldn't be as good as the Wes Welker we sign for $10MM/yr. But the question I would ask, is Welker $7MM better? Would his production be 3 times better? More importantly forget about individual comparisons, would the offense as a whole be THAT much more productive? Would the money I saved by signing Edelman, make the team better being spent elsewhere?

Again this isn't about Welker the player. He's great and productive. But are we a better team with him and not Volmer, or him and not Talib, not just next year but going forward.

I think most of the people on this board think that keeping Welker is a no brainer. It should be an easy decision. But I think its a lot harder than that. There are a lot of ripples that are created when you sign any player to a big contract, whether its Welker, Talib, OR Volmer. I, at least recognize, that, and I'm glad I don't have to make that choice.

Hey MAYBE the choice doesn't come down to either Volmer of Welker. Maybe we let Talib walk, send McCourty back to CB, and draft a safety from what is supposed to be a deep and talented class this year and save enough money to pay BOTH Volmer and Welker.

The offense would benefit, but does the defense take a step back adding ANOTHER very talented but very young player? See Andy no easy answers.

 

[Ivan]

On a side note while this obviously doesn't hold true for all players I can see Welker accepting the cliched home town discount. Granted that Welker will not play for peanuts but he knows how good it is here.

Granted its speculation but what do you think that he is asking for by way of money/years? Do you guys think that Welker is demanding a contract that is far above his skill set or will outweigh his contribution to the offense?

Given his production that would be very very doubtful. And if he actually is demanding 8 years 125 million then even I would say to let him go. I absolutely believe he would take a fraction of that and play for NE. I think he wants to stay and that he is reasonable about what they should give him, and i would bet it won't take more 4-40. At that price it is really difficult for me to see how they are taking a big risk or that it would seriously limit their ability to sign the other players they want to. Mo, I believe, has broken down the costs and potential dead money risks that would go with that in prior posts and it has worked out well for the Patriots.

4-40 with 20 guaranteed would allow them to give him a nominal salary( say 2 million) in 2013 plus 5 million going against the cap in guaranteed money, 7 million total cap hit. 2014 would have the 5 plus another 3 in salary, which would be 8 against the cap, also less than last year. 2015 would be 5 million salary and 5 more from the guarantee, and 2016 would have the remaining 10 and the 5 from the guarantee, which is a team friendly structure that would give them the leverage for a new deal or a release with only 5 million going on the books as dead money after 3 years of production, hardly a risky proposition or one that keeps them from signing other players.

If my math is off on this stuff feel free to let me know as but if i'm right and they were willing to do such a deal then it would be a good one for both sides, Welker would pretty much be guaranteed 30 million dollars and the team would have a HOF WR who is their QB's most important weapon for the rest of Brady's career.

 

[Ivan]

The 2nd reason, is more mundane. The simple fact is that there are more people on this planet that can do what Wes Welker does, than can do what Sebastian Volmer can.

.

Huh?

Did you really just say that Ken?

Do you mind naming those who can produce more than Welker does at WR?

 

[ATippett56]

Seven of the nine teams that scored more than 400 points during the 2012 NFL regular season qualified for the 2012 NFL playoffs.

2012 NFL Standings, Team & Offensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Wes Welker is the straw the stirs the New England Patriots passing attack.

 

[Ivan]

1) We can probably handle 4/$40M, but 3/$30M makes more sense. I would note that the first 2 years would likely need to be guaranteed.

2) We will need restructures by Brady and Wilfork this year or next.

3) Vollmer would likely be gone.

4) The open question is whether is how we will be able to afford to re-sign or replace 2 WR's and 2 CB's. We will draft for our needs at DL.

My gut feeling is that Welker will be franchised, or let loose, or both.

Pretty much agree with all of this and would add that 4-40 really ends up working out to a 3-30 deal by the end of it, at least under most basic contract structures it does. Again, there are many better at capology than I am so anyone wanting to take issue with that should do so. ultimately it is the guaranteed money and likely to be earned money that gets the deal done and the final year of most deals gives team's leverage unless the player is continuing to play at that high a level, in which case the deal was obviously worth it.

 

[aluminum seats]

The simple fact is that there are more people on this planet that can do what Wes Welker does, than can do what Sebastian Volmer can.


I think most of the people on this board think that keeping Welker is a no brainer. It should be an easy decision. But I think its a lot harder than that.

I'll concede that there are very few "no brainer" decisions, and that it's fair to say this isn't one.

But beyond that, I think your first point--that "there are more people on this planet that can do what Wes Welker does" is, to be blunt, wrong. I've come to the realization that pretty much everyone continues to underestimate just how great Welker is. Not sure why. But there remains this lingering idea that yeah, Welker sure is good, but he's not a "real" receiver, and, you know, other guys can do what he does...maybe not QUITE as good, but pretty close. Etc.

To which I say, are we nuts? The guy had 118 catches and 1354 yards during a season when all of the other top receiving options took turns being hurt, during a season where at times the team looked to minimize his role (that's not a negative point or a conspiracy-theory oriented one, it just appeared to be happening), who plays WELL through injuries, and continues to be Brady's go-to guy when the offense is sputtering along, it's time to stop screwing around, and get that first down or score.

In other words, forget labels or classifications or anything else. For THIS Patriots team, over the next few years, locking Welker up is hugely important.

 

[PatsFan2]

1) We can probably handle 4/$40M, but 3/$30M makes more sense. I would note that the first 2 years would likely need to be guaranteed.

2) We will need restructures by Brady and Wilfork this year or next.

3) Vollmer would likely be gone.

4) The open question is whether is how we will be able to afford to re-sign or replace 2 WR's and 2 CB's. We will draft for our needs at DL.

My gut feeling is that Welker will be franchised, or let loose, or both.

If Brady don't get decent protection he cant get the ball to Wes or to any other Receivers. BB will tell you that guys like Vollmer don't fall off trees. I am glad we got the extra week rest...some of you are going to really appreciate Vollmer in the Playoffs. Brady can't do anything on his @ss...see first SB against Giants.:snob: Vollmer has to be Retained!

 

[RobertWeathers]

Wes Welker is the straw the stirs the New England Patriots passing attack.

No. It's Gronk. He a greater impact player. WW is replaceable with a good WR or a kick-butt 3rd down back. Gronk is not.

 

[Ivan]

No. It's Gronk. He a greater impact player. WW is replaceable with a good WR or a kick-butt 3rd down back. Gronk is not.

Really? Name the WR or "kick butt 3rd down back" who has produced like Welker?

Should be easy.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Really? Name the WR or "kick butt 3rd down back" who has produced like Welker?

Should be easy.

Would love to keep WW but if the team can't, life goes on. Amendola, Greg Jennings, etc. could replace his production.

WW is a GREAT WR but he is replaceable and the offense will score 30+ ppg without him.

 

[Ivan]

Would love to keep WW but if the team can't, life goes on. Amendola, Greg Jennings, etc. could replace his production.

WW is a GREAT WR but he is replaceable and the offense will score 30+ ppg without him.

Amendola and Jennings could replace a part of his production, not all of it, and Amendola in particular falls way short of Welker in production and both will cost so much that replacing Welker with them makes little sense, at least imo. I would be willing to bet that both those players get deals very close to what Welker will be willing to sign back with NE for.

BTW-At leat you are being realistic, most of the other stuff I have seen isn't, such as the claims that Welker can be easily replaced by Edelman, or that paying Talib or Vollmer is more important than re-signing Welker etc..And I agree that Gronkowski is a special player, but I agree with andy johnson that the offense runs through Welker and everything else plays off his role.

 

[PatsSweFan]

We can work with Edelman, Hernadez and Woodhead in the slot.
Welker atm is a huge part of the O and truly a great Patriot in every aspect but;
1. Should we really pay him 10m a year (3-5years) on a long term contract?
2. What can he get in other NFL teams?

I sure wouldn't pay Jennings, Bowe, Wallace, Amendola 10m a year if we cant give it to Welker...I would prefer to give a guy like Davone Bess maybe 2m a year contract then...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Amendola and Jennings could replace a part of his production, not all of it, and Amendola in particular falls way short of Welker in production and both will cost so much that replacing Welker with them makes little sense, at least imo. I would be willing to bet that both those players get deals very close to what Welker will be willing to sign back with NE for.

BTW-At leat you are being realistic, most of the other stuff I have seen isn't, such as the claims that Welker can be easily replaced by Edelman, or that paying Talib or Vollmer is more important than re-signing Welker etc..And I agree that Gronkowski is a special player, but I agree with andy johnson that the offense runs through Welker and everything else plays off his role.

Yea I'm not one of those who say, 'hes only a slot receiver'. He is incredibly important to this offense and makes Brady's job easier.

However, I do believe that he is replaceable with a top-WR and/or a Larry Centers/Darrell Sproles-type that can move the chains and get 1st downs.

It will all come down to the money and years- again.