A Broncos fan's perspective on this Sunday's game

[RYObroncosfan]

Hey Pats fans, back again to talk about this weekend's game. I'll be around until next Monday or Tuesday, so feel free to ask me any questions you've got about the Broncos or anything else.

I'm living in the New England area, so I've seen almost every Pats game in addition to all the Broncos games, I think I've got a good idea of what to expect this weekend.

Breaking down the Broncos:

Our strength is clearly our defense. Our secondary isn't that good; our safeties are about average. Dawkins brings a lot of heart and is great against the run, but his pass coverage is iffy. Our other safeties are average at best, making some good plays here and there and giving up some big plays at an equal rate. Champ Bailey's still a top 10 corner in football, great in pass coverage (although not quite lockdown like he was a few years ago), but Andre Goodman is not good. He's been getting beat consistently week-in-week-out, but he makes a big play every so often to keep teams thinking he's solid.

He's not. The pick-6 against the Jets was literally thrown right to him, as was Ponder's INT that won us the Vikings game.

If Brady stays away from Bailey, he shouldn't have much difficulty passing if he gets enough time.

That's what's going to be huge for us. Our linebackers and DLine are way above average. DJ Williams had a huge week last week and has consistently been an above average linebacker throughout his career. He's greatly benefitting from teams focusing on stopping Von and Dumervil.

The combination of Miller and Dumervil is pretty threatening to any QB. The one game Miller missed, we gave up 30+ to the Vikings. He impacts our defense that much, he's absolutely amazing. The problem is when the D focuses too much on them, the rest of our D-line is solid enough to be able to get through. We're finally getting pressure on the QB, which is helping out a lot. We don't force a ton of turnovers, our D has just been making stops.

Still, I fully expect the pats to score 24+, if we win this game it'll be because of Tebow and the offense.

Before you laugh...

Contrary to what you may believe, or what you may have heard, Tebow's improved tremendously from a passing standpoint. Some of the crappy numbers he's put up (3-16 first half last week) simply aren't his fault. And I'm not in love with Tebow or against Tebow, I'm just calling it as I see it. Our WRs are absolutely miserable. We had a handful of drops in the first half last week, on third downs, on potential touchdown grabs, on potential big plays...you name it, we dropped it. His one INT last week was on a fantastic defensive play, and before that he had only one all season.

His mechanics could not be any uglier still, but his accuracy has improved beyond belief. He has the occasional errant throw still, but he's definitely shown that he'll get better

Our running game is great. McGahee has played very, very well this year. A great run D can stop him, but the Pats don't have a great run D. He'll run it, our fullback will take some short-yardage carries, if Eddie Royal's back he could run it, Demaryius Thomas could run it, and of course Tebow will run it. It's a solid run game, top in the league in terms of average. I suspect we'll have some success on the ground.

What do I expect? I don't think we'll win this one. Not because our "luck" has run out, not because I think Brady and Co. will figure out Tebow and the Bronocs...just because I think the Pats are a better team.

That being said, as a Broncos fan I can't consider anything a surprise anymore. These last few weeks have been absolutely crazy. FOUR consecutive 4th quarter comebacks. Our last 6 game win streak came when we played you guys last and beat you in overtime with McDaniels leading us with out disgusting brown and yellow uniforms. It's been a while. We're just enjoying the ride, and while I would have marked this game down as the one I wanted to win the most 2 months ago, at this point we're just playing for the playoffs and we're in good shape.

Love him or hate him, it's hard to argue with 7-1 as a starter considering Orton was 1-4. I'll be happy with a close game.

Prediction: Pats 34, Broncos 24.

Feel free to stop by our forums to chat about the game... forums.denverbroncos.com

 

[shmessy]

Thanks for that insightful analysis!

In many respects, I'm guessing you folks are feeling the same confused/giddy vibe we were experiencing in mid-December 2001.

You front seven is incredible, and my biggest hope is that Connolly/Wendell are back and healthy so we don't have to play our 4th string - picked off the street 2 weeks ago - free agent at Center under the gun this week.

 

[Gwedd]

The combination of Miller and Dumervil is pretty threatening to any QB. The one game Miller missed, we gave up 30+ to the Vikings. He impacts our defense that much, he's absolutely amazing. The problem is when the D focuses too much on them, the rest of our D-line is solid enough to be able to get through. We're finally getting pressure on the QB, which is helping out a lot. We don't force a ton of turnovers, our D has just been making stops.

Absolutely true. I have great respect for Dumervil and am happy to see success for him and for Denver, as long as it doesn't come against New England.

Having said that, thanks for an insightful post. It's nice to have other team's fans drop by for good and thoughtful discussions, as opposed to the trolls we so often see.

I'm looking forward to a great and injury-free game on Sunday.

 

[DaBruinz]

Thanks for that insightful analysis!

In many respects, I'm guessing you folks are feeling the same confused/giddy vibe we were experiencing in mid-December 2001.

You front seven is incredible, and my biggest hope is that Connolly/Wendell are back and healthy so we don't have to play our 4th string - picked off the street 2 weeks ago - free agent at Center under the gun this week.

Nick McDonald has been on the PS since the start of the season (with the exception of 1 day) .. Not sure where you got that he was picked up off the street 2 weeks ago.. That being said, he was pulled in favor of Wendell during this last game.

 

[Gwedd]

Thanks for that insightful analysis!

In many respects, I'm guessing you folks are feeling the same confused/giddy vibe we were experiencing in mid-December 2001.

Agree with everything here. I've got to think that BB is also scheming to stop the option this week. New England was blown up when Miami introduced the Wildcat against them, but once they and other teams got a look at it, it wasn't that successful. Coach B. has had a good look now at how Denver with Tebow runs the option, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Hopefully.

 

[Tunescribe]

How is Denver against the run? And, how are the safeties/linebackers in coverage against the tight end?

 

[RYObroncosfan]

Thanks for that insightful analysis!

In many respects, I'm guessing you folks are feeling the same confused/giddy vibe we were experiencing in mid-December 2001.

You front seven is incredible, and my biggest hope is that Connolly/Wendell are back and healthy so we don't have to play our 4th string - picked off the street 2 weeks ago - free agent at Center under the gun this week.

Funny you mention that actually, there's been a few comparisons to the '01 Pats team. Hell, we were 80 to 1 underdogs to win our division after week 5! I've been in shock each of the past few weeks that we've managed to pull out miraculous wins at the end of the game. We've needed a 2 point conversion? We get it. Need a 60 yard field goal? Money. Need Tebow to suddenly put up over 30 points, he's done it. It's been so impractical and unexpected that like I said, nothing surprises me.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Tom Brady leads a 90 yard touchdown drive to take a 24-20 lead with 25 seconds left and a Tebow hail mary falls into Royal's hands for a game winning touchdown. The one advantage I left out is that we're playing at home, which always benefits us.

I don't expect to win, but the one thing this team has taught me is not to give up hope. Whether that ends this week or not, it's been fun.

 

[randomk1]

Tebow will have a season high but that's allright. That's what we do.

VonDoom or whatever you like to call that combo is gonna have to put up a monster effort for Denver to get the win.

 

[robbomango]

Nice overview thanks a lot RYO, your QB Is a competitive beast. I watched that espn doc "The Chosen One" Tebows a madman, playing with a broken leg, sprained ankle etc, raging up the field.

I'm not an X's and O's guy just wanted to say thanks, peace:verycool:

 

[RYObroncosfan]

Agree with everything here. I've got to think that BB is also scheming to stop the option this week. New England was blown up when Miami introduced the Wildcat against them, but once they and other teams got a look at it, it wasn't that successful. Coach B. has had a good look now at how Denver with Tebow runs the option, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Hopefully.

The thing is that when the team's are expecting the option a la the Vikings, we move away from it. I think that's been our biggest advantage, we're probably VERY tough to gameplan against. If anyone can do it, it's BB, but what happens if you gameplan all week for the option and we run it twice all game? Tebow only ran 4 times against the Vikings the week after running 22 times. Kind of tough to predict, but I'd guess if your defense isn't that fast, we may try more option. The Bears spied Tebow with Urlacher, and with Peppers and Briggs, they were fast enough to contain the option. Tebow had a few big runs, including a big 3rd and 16 conversion where he lowered his shoulder against a linebacker and picked up the first, but for the most part they contained the option game.

How is Denver against the run? And, how are the safeties/linebackers in coverage against the tight end?

Gronk will be an issue for us, like he is for everyone. I have absolutely no idea how they'll try and stop him or who they'll put on him. The linebackers are solid (and fast!) but I still don't know if I trust putting someone like DJ Williams on him. I suspect he'll have another big game.

We're hit and miss against the run. I think we get killed by it when we expect pass, but play REALLY well against it when we're ready for it. When we're ready for it we blitz Dumervil and Miller and have DJ watch the middle and we usually contain it very well. We get caught off guard though a lot too, but I can't recall a HUGE run against us recently (could be wrong though). Lots of 10 yard gains, but I can't see BJGE breaking a big one. I think respecting your passing game though, we'll be susceptible to the running game.

 

[DarrylS]

Nice insightful post..

Was listening to Zo & Gresch(cannot believe I am admitting this) and they were breaking down the past 3 wins, all of which originated when the D or ST's made big plays paving the way.

Even last Sunday Marion Barber looked like he threw the game away, not one but two mistakes.. on this team after the first BB would have had him on the sidelines. Then the huge 33 yard drive, led to a 58 yard FG...

Everything needs to be put in perspective, but a w is a w and there are no style points.. stupid plays by Chicago lost this game, and put Denver in a position to win.

IMO the Tebow hype has gotten over the edge, but a lot of folks need some type of hero in their life and Tim meets that need.

 

[Patspsycho]

We're hit and miss against the run. I think we get killed by it when we expect pass, but play REALLY well against it when we're ready for it. When we're ready for it we blitz Dumervil and Miller and have DJ watch the middle and we usually contain it very well. We get caught off guard though a lot too, but I can't recall a HUGE run against us recently (could be wrong though). Lots of 10 yard gains, but I can't see BJGE breaking a big one. I think respecting your passing game though, we'll be susceptible to the running game.

Thanks for your insights and analysis. It's always nice when fans of other teams come in here to discuss pure football.

We've not been committing to the run game and have been pass-pass-pass, and when we've been that one dimensional we are not good. So if we continue to do the same against the Broncos, it's going to be a toss up.

BJGE isn't going to break a big one- he never has. His bread and butter is grinding away very consistently, it's boring but produces consistent results even if it doesn't produce consistent fans

 

[RYObroncosfan]

IMO the Tebow hype has gotten over the edge, but a lot of folks need some type of hero in their life and Tim meets that need.

Of course it has...Tebowing is officially a word now

That being said, he doesn't deserve the credit from a statistical standpoint, but from a leadership standpoint--he's absolutely changed the attitude in that locker room to a "we won't quit" style, and that could explain the win streak. This team won 6 in a row in '09 and finished 8-8, but I think this team is better.

You want to believe in something, and I still can't figure out why anyone would HATE Tebow. I don't even like all the coverage he gets (but I won't complain), but as a person; the guy doesn't curse, donates a ton of his money, is devoted to helping people, says AND DOES all the right things...I mean you'd have a pretty difficult time finding a better person, much less one who's leading a football team.

 

[goheels22002]

The thing is that when the team's are expecting the option a la the Vikings, we move away from it. I think that's been our biggest advantage, we're probably VERY tough to gameplan against. If anyone can do it, it's BB, but what happens if you gameplan all week for the option and we run it twice all game? Tebow only ran 4 times against the Vikings the week after running 22 times.

The Broncos ran the option only four times against the Vikings precisely because Minnesota had their edge rushers and linebackers stay in their lanes and not reacting to the offense line pulling on every play. If you let Tebow leak out the back door or run the option, especially running to his left, he's terrific. The boys on NFLN did a whole segment on that.

Expect the same this week. You can bet that the Belichick wants Tebow to throw the ball at his defensive backs and take away as much of the run game as possible. His MO is to attack the strength of the opponent. That leaves Broncos weakness against Patriots weakness when the Broncos have the ball.

Sure, the Broncos will move the ball some, but can the Broncos passing game keep up with the Patriots offense?

Should be fun.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Hey Pats fans, back again to talk about this weekend's game. I'll be around until next Monday or Tuesday, so feel free to ask me any questions you've got about the Broncos or anything else.

I'm living in the New England area, so I've seen almost every Pats game in addition to all the Broncos games, I think I've got a good idea of what to expect this weekend.

Breaking down the Broncos:

Our strength is clearly our defense. Our secondary isn't that good; our safeties are about average. Dawkins brings a lot of heart and is great against the run, but his pass coverage is iffy. Our other safeties are average at best, making some good plays here and there and giving up some big plays at an equal rate. Champ Bailey's still a top 10 corner in football, great in pass coverage (although not quite lockdown like he was a few years ago), but Andre Goodman is not good. He's been getting beat consistently week-in-week-out, but he makes a big play every so often to keep teams thinking he's solid.

He's not. The pick-6 against the Jets was literally thrown right to him, as was Ponder's INT that won us the Vikings game.

If Brady stays away from Bailey, he shouldn't have much difficulty passing if he gets enough time.

That's what's going to be huge for us. Our linebackers and DLine are way above average. DJ Williams had a huge week last week and has consistently been an above average linebacker throughout his career. He's greatly benefitting from teams focusing on stopping Von and Dumervil.

The combination of Miller and Dumervil is pretty threatening to any QB. The one game Miller missed, we gave up 30+ to the Vikings. He impacts our defense that much, he's absolutely amazing. The problem is when the D focuses too much on them, the rest of our D-line is solid enough to be able to get through. We're finally getting pressure on the QB, which is helping out a lot. We don't force a ton of turnovers, our D has just been making stops.

Still, I fully expect the pats to score 24+, if we win this game it'll be because of Tebow and the offense.

Before you laugh...

Contrary to what you may believe, or what you may have heard, Tebow's improved tremendously from a passing standpoint. Some of the crappy numbers he's put up (3-16 first half last week) simply aren't his fault. And I'm not in love with Tebow or against Tebow, I'm just calling it as I see it. Our WRs are absolutely miserable. We had a handful of drops in the first half last week, on third downs, on potential touchdown grabs, on potential big plays...you name it, we dropped it. His one INT last week was on a fantastic defensive play, and before that he had only one all season.

His mechanics could not be any uglier still, but his accuracy has improved beyond belief. He has the occasional errant throw still, but he's definitely shown that he'll get better

Our running game is great. McGahee has played very, very well this year. A great run D can stop him, but the Pats don't have a great run D. He'll run it, our fullback will take some short-yardage carries, if Eddie Royal's back he could run it, Demaryius Thomas could run it, and of course Tebow will run it. It's a solid run game, top in the league in terms of average. I suspect we'll have some success on the ground.

What do I expect? I don't think we'll win this one. Not because our "luck" has run out, not because I think Brady and Co. will figure out Tebow and the Bronocs...just because I think the Pats are a better team.

That being said, as a Broncos fan I can't consider anything a surprise anymore. These last few weeks have been absolutely crazy. FOUR consecutive 4th quarter comebacks. Our last 6 game win streak came when we played you guys last and beat you in overtime with McDaniels leading us with out disgusting brown and yellow uniforms. It's been a while. We're just enjoying the ride, and while I would have marked this game down as the one I wanted to win the most 2 months ago, at this point we're just playing for the playoffs and we're in good shape.

Love him or hate him, it's hard to argue with 7-1 as a starter considering Orton was 1-4. I'll be happy with a close game.

Prediction: Pats 34, Broncos 24.

Feel free to stop by our forums to chat about the game... forums.denverbroncos.com

Thanks for your great insight into the Broncos, and their strengths and weaknesses. Also, congrats on the Broncos having a fine season. I always liked the Broncos during the Elway years, and always felt bad for him during his Super Bowl losses. I was happy for him that he could finish his career with consecutive Championships. He was an incredible QB, maybe the best arm ever. In my top 5 alltime QB's.

As far as now, I was a huge fan of Vonn Miller's at draft time, and he sure looks like a gem of a rookie. As far as Tebow, unlike some football fans, I always liked him, going back to his Florida days. He's always been very classy, and I always thought he was more talented than people give him credit for. I hope he has a long prosperous career. I do admit I cringe when he overdoes the religious stuff, but other than that, I'm a fan.

I think there are 2 things I kind of disagree with you about, one is is the final score. I think it'll be like a 27-24 final nail biter, and I seriously don't know who wins. That Broncos defense can hold us under 30. The second, I think our run defense is better than most think, that's not the part that gives me grey hairs, it's obviously the pass defense (or lack thereof) that gives us Pat's fans fits.

Good luck Sunday, it should be a very close game, the Broncos always give the Pats trouble in Denver.

 

[DarrylS]

Of course it has...Tebowing is officially a word now

That being said, he doesn't deserve the credit from a statistical standpoint, but from a leadership standpoint--he's absolutely changed the attitude in that locker room to a "we won't quit" style, and that could explain the win streak. This team won 6 in a row in '09 and finished 8-8, but I think this team is better.

You want to believe in something, and I still can't figure out why anyone would HATE Tebow. I don't even like all the coverage he gets (but I won't complain), but as a person; the guy doesn't curse, donates a ton of his money, is devoted to helping people, says AND DOES all the right things...I mean you'd have a pretty difficult time finding a better person, much less one who's leading a football team.

There is not hate, just too much hype for him and his product. It makes it sound as though he is completely responsible for this win streak.

Right now he is providing leadership, but sooner or later his style will catch up to him or teams will figure how to scheme against him. It happens to many quarterbacks... my only objection is that there are very many religious players in the NFL who practice their faith, and only a few who become media spectacles because of it. Perhaps am old school, but have always believed that you do this stuff out of the public eye, and not to seek public adulation or recognition.

 

[borg]

Great Denver overview....thanks

Looking back at that Chicago game. The Denver offense was moving the ball at times during the game despite the dropped passes and QB pressure. Three times Denver had the ball in field goal range, but an INT(39 yd line), fumble (38 yd line), and blocked FG (11 yd line) all kept the scoreboard clean.

Question to the OP. How did you view the Lloyd trade? Broncos throwing in the towel? Get an asset while they can? Addition by subtraction? Was Lloyd vocally disgruntled?

Just seems that Tebow would have benefited more with a pro WR to pass too.

 

[Elijah T.]

Thnks for the thoughtful post OP.

I agree with your assessment of the Broncos. This will definitely be a week where the team that gameplans and executes best wins....you can say that for most weeks, but there are some teams that the Pats can beat by simply executing. With Denver we'll have to be sharp with play-calling on both sides and win the chess match.

I agree with the posters who like Tebow. He's the type of player you want on your team. Competitive, tough, physical, clutch-- the complete team-player. I simply wouldn't want him throwing the football for my team.

My problem isn't with Tebow, but more so with his delusional supporters. It's as if Tebow is the one holding teams to 10 points, forcing turnovers, play-calling, and kicking 50 yard field goals.

I have no problem with his expressions of faith, I do have a problem with attributing his expressions of faith as the reason why they win football games. If that was the case then why did Kurt Warner and Tony Dungy lose football games? They as well were outspoken and commited followers of Christ.

I want the Pats to win because I love the Pats, but this game would be sweet just to slow down the Tebow idol worship a little bit. How would fans feel about Tebow if he lost a couple games? The media?

My big question, how does Tebow handle adversity dealing with losses? He hasn't lost much since high school. And when he lost in college, he would cry. It would be good to measure what type of mental toughness he has dealing with adversity.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Tim Tebow - Tebowing - Denver Broncos - NFL

 

[RYObroncosfan]

Great Denver overview....thanks

Looking back at that Chicago game. The Denver offense was moving the ball at times during the game despite the dropped passes and QB pressure. Three times Denver had the ball in field goal range, but an INT(39 yd line), fumble (38 yd line), and blocked FG (11 yd line) all kept the scoreboard clean.

Question to the OP. How did you view the Lloyd trade? Broncos throwing in the towel? Get an asset while they can? Addition by subtraction? Was Lloyd vocally disgruntled?

Just seems that Tebow would have benefited more with a pro WR to pass too.

We did move the ball well, and unfortunately the last handful of games when the score was kept low...we weren't having too much trouble moving the ball. Granted, against the Bears we had something like four straight 3 and outs, but for the most part in these games we've moved the ball well but have generally struggled to put up points. Whether it's getting stopped on 4th and 1 at the 40 (seems to happen a lot), missing FGs (for as good as Prater has been, he's been disastrous from 40-49) or just settling for 3, we've been moving the ball with the running game and then failing to capitalize.

To answer your question, at the time, I thought the Lloyd trade made sense. We weren't making the playoffs, Lloyd was going to walk after the season, a 5th is better than nothing, and I liked our young receiving corps. Looking back on it though, losing Lloyd is killing our offense. He'd be the guy to help out Tebow and make some good catches. He wouldn't be dropping all the passes these young WRs are dropping. He'd be helping us sustain drives...I think he was also a little frustrated with the QB change.

So essentially, everything you mentioned was a factor; we didn't think we'd be going anywhere, we were getting value while we could, we were trying to get our younger WRs more PT, and I don't think Lloyd was very happy at that point.

Sure is hurting us now, despite the wins. Demaryius Thomas has a lot of potential, we (as in McDaniels) drafted him before Dez Bryant because of his high ceiling and character. Injuries have really slowed down his progression, but he has a lot of potential. He's slowly starting to get going these past few games, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has the best day for our offense.