5 out of the 6 losses

[captain stone]

Yes, and I’ve watched the whole season. Name 3 defenses that have been better.

That was Then; this is Now.

And the Now is, the Patsies were THE WORST ****ING DEFENSE IN THE ENTIRE ****ING LEAGUE over the weekend.

And I don’t give a rat’s ass if they shut out the Jags and hold them to < 200 yards of offense, my opinion will not change in the slightest… This is an old, slow, under-talented & mal-coached defense who took advantage of bad teams, opponents’ injuries & the weather.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I am not the name calling type and don't remember a conversation about passing more. Too bad for me. Sounds like I should get out more and have some fun.

Haha, sorry. Must've been the avatar. Maybe it was someone named curious something. I don't know.

 

[Calhoun44]

There's only 2 games left. That's all that's guaranteed.

I'm an optimist.

 

[Pats1971]

The pats having a winning record right now is because of their defense and run game, I mean bashing the defense for giving up 17 when you only score 14 is not exactly smart. The pats are 2nd in the league in points allowed and this is where you think the issue is? If we are expecting the pats defense to shut every team out so our offense can put up 10 points and win, then you guys are in for a long few years here.

 

[Ring 6]

That was Then; this is Now.

And the Now is, the Patsies were THE WORST ****ING DEFENSE IN THE ENTIRE ****ING LEAGUE over the weekend.

And I don’t give a rat’s ass if they shut out the Jags and hold them to < 200 yards of offense, my opinion will not change in the slightest… This is an old, slow, under-talented & mal-coached defense who took advantage of bad teams, opponents’ injuries & the weather.

Every metric says you are wrong.

 

[Pats1971]

I believe he’s saying their ranking of #1 defense is overrated as those rankings tend to be.

No, he is saying that it does not matter if the offense sucks the defense should be pitching shutouts every week or they suck. The pats are 2nd in points allowed with 17 ppg, and people think thats the issue? Hey defense thanks for holding the other team for 3 quarters while we sucked and allow us to make the score closer late, but since you didnt hold them one more time you are the issue....lol Here is some reality.

Pats are 2nd in points allowed.
5th in takeaways
3rd in yards allowed
They allow apposing QB's the second lowest Qb rating at 73

Pats are 11th in ppg on offense, and that takes into account the defense giving them good field position with takeaways.
17th in yards per game
9th in rushing
17th in passing

But defense is the issue?
Let me put it this way. Any year in the past if the pats were 2nd in points allowed, 5th in takeaways, 3rd in yards allowed, the pats are
going to the superbowl. In fact they are probably 14-2


Yeah sometimes any defense in NFL history will play a good offense and give up some points, but if your offense cannot keep up in the rare freaking game the pats actually give up 20 points, then this team will never go anywhere. If this defense was even average like 15th in the league, the pats would be 6-11 this year.

 

[VectorPrime]

Btw Sony Michel has been the most productive running back in the league for a month now with a depleted Rams offense line.

 

[Calhoun44]

Btw Sony Michel has been the most productive running back in the league for a month now with a depleted Rams offense line.

He was the key to the playoff run in 2018. I wish him well. I love our backs now and unfortunately there wasn't room for him here.

 

[Ring 6]

No, he is saying that it does not matter if the offense sucks the defense should be pitching shutouts every week or they suck. The pats are 2nd in points allowed with 17 ppg, and people think thats the issue? Hey defense thanks for holding the other team for 3 quarters while we sucked and allow us to make the score closer late, but since you didnt hold them one more time you are the issue....lol Here is some reality.

Pats are 2nd in points allowed.
5th in takeaways
3rd in yards allowed
They allow apposing QB's the second lowest Qb rating at 73

Pats are 11th in ppg on offense, and that takes into account the defense giving them good field position with takeaways.
17th in yards per game
9th in rushing
17th in passing

But defense is the issue?
Let me put it this way. Any year in the past if the pats were 2nd in points allowed, 5th in takeaways, 3rd in yards allowed, the pats are
going to the superbowl. In fact they are probably 14-2


Yeah sometimes any defense in NFL history will play a good offense and give up some points, but if your offense cannot keep up in the rare freaking game the pats actually give up 20 points, then this team will never go anywhere. If this defense was even average like 15th in the league, the pats would be 6-11 this year.

First in points allowed (tied with Denver)

 

[venecol]

There's a lot of conversation about the top ranked defense (in pts allowed). Taking a look at the rankings of the current top 14 playoff teams to see how they compare in relationship to this and other metrics. Currently, there are 6 playoff teams (5 NFC & 1 AFC) with four of them division winners. The other 8 teams are at different levels (from 2 to 7 seed) but have yet to make the playoffs.

1. Defense rankings: this is led by the Pats (#6 seed) and Broncos (#13) at 17.3 ppg. Five of the top 10 seeds are outside the top 10 in this metric including 2 of the playoff teams, one a #1 seed (GB).
2. Offense rankings: this is led by the Cowboys (#2 seed) at 30.5 ppg. Eight of the top 10 seeds are inside the top 10 in this metric with only 2 top seeds including a #1 seed (GB) outside.
3. T.O. Differential: this is led by the Packers (#1 seed) at +16. All of the playoff teams are inside the top 10 and 8 of the top seeds are also inside the top 10. The only top 10 seeds outside this metric are TEN (#2 seed) and CIN (#3 seed) and they both have a negative differential.
4. Point Differential: this is led by the Bills (#6 seed) at +163 pts. All of the playoff teams are inside the top 10 except GB (#1 seed) and the only other top 10 seed is TEN (#2 seed).

From the above, it appears that the defensive rankings have the least effect on the top seeded teams. This may be because this metric also has a very close gap between the teams. For example, there's only 0.5 point difference between the #4 and the #9 ranked teams.

There are 4 teams that are top 10 in all of the above metrics: Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bucs.
There are 4 teams that are top 10 in 3 of the metrics: Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Pats.
Green Bay sticks out as a #1 seed being outside the top 10 in 3 of the 4 metrics (only in TO Diff.).
Based on only these parameters the top 5 teams appear to be:
1. Bills
2. Cowboys
3. Bucs
4. Chiefs
5. Colts / Pats

Of course this is all based on numbers through 15 games and doesn't take into account how these teams have performed recently, which is probably a better indication of where they are today. Below is sorted by seeding to follow the above description but you can see the raw numbers and rankings for each category.

 

[Pats1971]

First in points allowed (tied with Denver)

first second, my point stands, not where the issue is.

 

[captain stone]

The pats having a winning record right now is because of their defense and run game, I mean bashing the defense for giving up 17 when you only score 14 is not exactly smart. The pats are 2nd in the league in points allowed and this is where you think the issue is? If we are expecting the pats defense to shut every team out so our offense can put up 10 points and win, then you guys are in for a long few years here.

Did you and AJ go somewhere and not watch the game together?

 

[venecol]

Did you and AJ go somewhere and not watch the game together?

Sounds like he's being sarcastic. These are the numbers broken down by type of opponent.

Pats played 6 games against teams ranked top 10 scoring offense, losing 4 & allowing 24.7 ppg (making them #22 scoring defense).
Pats played 3 games against teams ranked between 11-20 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 16.0 ppg (pretty good).
Pats played 6 games against teams ranked between 21-32 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 10.7 ppg (excellent).

 

[Calhoun44]

There's a lot of conversation about the top ranked defense (in pts allowed). Taking a look at the rankings of the current top 14 playoff teams to see how they compare in relationship to this and other metrics. Currently, there are 6 playoff teams (5 NFC & 1 AFC) with four of them division winners. The other 8 teams are at different levels (from 2 to 7 seed) but have yet to make the playoffs.

1. Defense rankings: this is led by the Pats (#6 seed) and Broncos (#13) at 17.3 ppg. Five of the top 10 seeds are outside the top 10 in this metric including 2 of the playoff teams, one a #1 seed (GB).
2. Offense rankings: this is led by the Cowboys (#2 seed) at 30.5 ppg. Eight of the top 10 seeds are inside the top 10 in this metric with only 2 top seeds including a #1 seed (GB) outside.
3. T.O. Differential: this is led by the Packers (#1 seed) at +16. All of the playoff teams are inside the top 10 and 8 of the top seeds are also inside the top 10. The only top 10 seeds outside this metric are TEN (#2 seed) and CIN (#3 seed) and they both have a negative differential.
4. Point Differential: this is led by the Bills (#6 seed) at +163 pts. All of the playoff teams are inside the top 10 except GB (#1 seed) and the only other top 10 seed is TEN (#2 seed).

From the above, it appears that the defensive rankings have the least effect on the top seeded teams. This may be because this metric also has a very close gap between the teams. For example, there's only 0.5 point difference between the #4 and the #9 ranked teams.

There are 4 teams that are top 10 in all of the above metrics: Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bucs.
There are 4 teams that are top 10 in 3 of the metrics: Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Pats.
Green Bay sticks out as a #1 seed being outside the top 10 in 3 of the 4 metrics (only in TO Diff.).
Based on only these parameters the top 5 teams appear to be:
1. Bills
2. Cowboys
3. Bucs
4. Chiefs
5. Colts / Pats

Of course this is all based on numbers through 15 games and doesn't take into account how these teams have performed recently, which is probably a better indication of where they are today. Below is sorted by seeding to follow the above description but you can see the raw numbers and rankings for each category.

View attachment 39319

The number one takeaway from this graph to me is that GB is very, very, very, dependent on turnovers. In the crappy NFC North, they probably get tons of TO's, but in the playoffs against better teams, good luck.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sounds like he's being sarcastic. These are the numbers broken down by type of opponent.

Pats played 6 games against teams ranked top 10 scoring offense, losing 4 & allowing 24.7 ppg (making them #22 scoring defense).
Pats played 3 games against teams ranked between 11-20 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 16.0 ppg (pretty good).
Pats played 6 games against teams ranked between 21-32 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 10.7 ppg (excellent).

I wanted to give you the "interesting" emoji, but it seems to have disappeared.

 

[venecol]

The number one takeaway from this graph to me is that GB is very, very, very, dependent on turnovers. In the crappy NFC North, they probably get tons of TO's, but in the playoffs against better teams, good luck. It tells me they're over rated.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Well there is always a best. The problem is people rooting for the defense that is playing the best expect it to be perfect and compare it to an unreasonable expectation.
“Eye tests”, supporting statistics and opinions about how good any players are, is bs when you have actual results to use to compare.
The 2 measures that are far and away the best measurement of defensive performance is how many points you allow and how many times you take the ball away. Everything else is just noise, overridden by those 2 measurements.
The Patriots have allowed the fewest points in the NFL. (Tied with Denver). No team other than Denver and Buffalo are less than 45 points behind. Patriots and Denver have allowed 260, Buffalo 264.
Patriots have 27 takeaways
Bills have 29 takeaways
Denver has 19 takeaways.

Seems pretty clear the performance of these defenses are
1) Buffalo
2) Patriots
3) Denver
and no one else is worthy of a top 3 ranking.

You are forgetting KC. Best D in the league 2nd half of the season. Points allowed. I don't see any team beating them.

 

[Ring 6]

You are forgetting KC. Best D in the league 2nd half of the season. Points allowed. I don't see any team beating them.

I am using the entire season as a sample size, for obvious reasons.

 

[Ivan]

As bad as the losses looked 5 out of the 6 losses came down to the defense needing to make a stop with the chance to win or tie. Obviously, football is a team sport and if the offense played better earlier this wouldn’t be an issue, but it is noteworthy. In fact in every loss but Tampa and Miami, the defense not only failed to get a stop, but gave up a score. At this point, Bill might want to consider taking some more risks when in these situations.

I don’t think taking more risks is the issue, I think the problem is the players, primarily the interior of the front 7. I love Hightower but he and Bentley have been getting gashed inside against the best run teams, and they don’t have a dominant nose tackle to run a 3-4. Barmore and Guy have played well, but Godchaux and the interior LB’s have hurt them. They haven’t been able to replace Jonathan Jones and depth at CB is an issue. As tough as it is they are going to have to replace some of their best defensive players over the next couple of years ( e.g..Hightower / McCourty), but right now they have to try and get as much out of what they have as they can.

 

[Ring 6]

Sounds like he's being sarcastic. These are the numbers broken down by type of opponent.

Pats played 6 games against teams ranked top 10 scoring offense, losing 4 & allowing 24.7 ppg (making them #22 scoring defense).
Pats played 3 games against teams ranked between 11-20 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 16.0 ppg (pretty good).
Pats played 6 games against teams ranked between 21-32 scoring offense, losing 1 & allowing 10.7 ppg (excellent).

The 6 teams in the top 10 average 29.5, patriots hold them to 24.7 (it should be noted that in these 3 games, 21 points were allowed on pick 6 and blocked punt td = 3.5 of the 24.7)


The 3 in the middle average 22 and the patriots allow 16

The 6 in the bottom average 18.4 and the patriots hold them to 10.7

It looks like the defense has held each group below their average by similar amounts.