2007 Offseason Preview

[tatepatsfan]

No one knows better than me that we have 3 huge games left this season, but I’m bored at work and this is always fun for me. This is what I am thinking for the roster in the off-season.

Draft: Need to pick up 1 DB and 1 LB who can see significant playing time. Mid-rounds go after an RB to someday be Maroney’s backup. Those I see as needs, then Belichick can and will go after any other top talent (possibly a 3rd QB late?)

I’d use our first rounder picks on:
DB: LaRon Landry (LSU), Michael Griffin (TEX), Marcus McCauley (FRES), Aaron Ross (TEX)
LB: Patrick Willis (MISS), Lawrence Timmons (FSU), Gaines Adams (CLEM) if he somehow fell a little), LaMarr Woodley (MICH)
2nd round, if Belichick feels there is more talent in the secondary, go ahead after another DB, if not, possibly go o-line or WR (maybe Levi Brown (T), Ryan Harris (T), Sidney Rice (WR), or Robert Meachem (WR)
3rd and on, (and I don’t mean to belittle the great potential for picks in this range, I just simply don’t know enough about players in this range yet), I’d focus on depth, players that could play in the future – RB, address WR or 2nd DB if not done in 2nd round, D-line

FA: Get a WR – doesn’t have to be top talent, but someone who can come in and contribute. I think Caldwell and this new FA could be starters with Jackson seeing significant time in the slot and Troy Brown making 2-3 impact receptions a game. I like Drew Bennett.
Get a DB who can see time. He doesn’t need to be a starter, just someone who can see time. I am truly happy with a secondary of Samuel, Hobbs, Harrison, and Wilson (if they can all stay healthy). This would be about addressing depth in the secondary. I’d love Nate Clements, but he’d be big bucks. More realistically, maybe Harper from the Colts or Macklin from the Cardinals.
Get an LB who is capable of starting but may not have to. If Seau can return for another year, plus drafting a promising LB high, that would be great. The Ravens will never let go of Thomas, so I’d really like to see Fletcher from the Bills.


QB (2) – Brady, Cassel
RB (4) – Dillon, Maroney, Faulk, Draft (3-5th Round)
TE (3) – Graham, Watson, Thomas
WR (5) – Caldwell, Gaffney, Jackson, Brown, FA (Bennett?)
T (4) – Light, Kaczur, O’Callaghan, Britt
G (3) – Mankins, Neal, Hochstein
C (2) – Koppen, Mruczkowski

DE (4) – Warren, Seymour, Green, Hill
NT (3) – Wilfork, Wright, Smith
LB (9) – Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, Banta-Cain, Woods, Izzo, Alexander, Draft (1-2nd Round), (Fletcher???)
CB (5) – Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Scott, (Clements/Harper/Macklin???)
S (5) – Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Hawkins, Draft (1-2nd Round)

ST (3) – Gostkowski, Miller, Paxton

Flex (1) – Draft (after 2nd round)


This would leave 7 openings; if, of course, we can successfully re-sign Graham, Samuel, and Banta-Cain (I truly believe this is possible). Of course there is plenty of room for debate over some of the spots, and some upgrades could be made, but I believe that with this core, plus a few playmakers (maybe 4 guys from the draft and 3 FA) we would be completely reloaded. I think we are in an extremely enviable position this year.

There would be great competition on this roster as well. Evans would compete for that last RB spot. There’d probably be 6 guys fighting for 5 spots at WR. An extra draft pick at OL plus the return of Yates would also breed intense competition. Andrews will return at DB for us, and he could be a great KR/PR. Could Hill or Smith lose their spot on the DL?

So this is what I would do. Good thing we have Belichick and Pioli, but I’m just doing this because I am bored at work.


-Steve

 

[notex]

Great Post...thanks

heres a couple of my thoughts...

on offense i would like to get another WR threat for brady...and get a couple guys to groom at Tackle..probly in the 3rd Round range...

WR: I like the idea of getting a 2nd round WR there should be some good talent in there because the way i see it there is 6 or 7 really quality guys at WR in this draft. unless someone really good falls to us...i think we should seriously consider drafting most of these guys in the FIRST round at 24 or 32 :rocker: but there is a good chance one or two falls to the 2nd kind of like Jackson this year and would be a great value pick in the 2nd. i would love to make this WR corps scary like the jets or colts or bengals..

Maechum, Rice, Jarratt, Ginn, Hill, williams, samarja(spelling?), calvin johnson.

Last year Jackson went all the way to the 2nd round meaning only ONE guy was chosen before him. Calvin johnson is special as is Jarratt they will go top 15-20 and johnson in the top 5. that leaves a few of these guys available at even 32...something to consider..


LB - love patrick willis, adams, woodley...havent seen much of timmons. I was against taking a linebacker lastl year because i knew we had bruschi and vrabel but we need to think about a guy to groom for a couple of years to take over in the future.

DB - need to take somebody in the first three rounds...we have alot of picks i think we can find some depth in late first day picks like hobbs in 3rd, samuel 4th, and hopefully one guy in the 1st or 2nd.

so in no paticular order i think this draft we should try to draft S,LB,WR with the first 3 picks. Then add a CB or two and another OT for depth.

In the free agency i think we should try to add some more quality ST guys...every time we kick off i get nervous for some reason. Also a guy to fill in at LB like seau while a rookie develops...vrabel,colvin,tedy are a great 3 pair and TBC should be resigned ...hopefully a guy or two for depth. A 3rd QB too, maybe that can be addressed in later rounds? i think OL is fine, we have alot of good players developing...CB needs a guy or two although randall gay is somebody to look out for


i danno im bored outta my mind and just sorta rambled on but thats my thoughts on the offseason..i need to stop thinkin about hte game sunday im so pumpd...

 

[tatepatsfan]

I really believe the key to our offseason will be re-signing Banta-Cain, Samuel, and Graham in that order. If we get all 3 back, I believe the most important players from this season will all be retained, and then any additions via the draft or FA will just make us even better.

That being said, we still should look to grab 1 WR that can contribute, and at least 1 LB and DB that can contribute.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I agree that settling the FA issue is huge.

According to the Globe, Graham is on the field for over 80% of the offensive plays. That means value to me, either as a blocker, pass catcher or chip blocker. He should be signable without busting the bank. If they franchise Graham that could cost around 4-5 million.
Next is Samuel. He's having a decent year statisically but he also got toasted a bit. If you sign him, you are looking at an 8 figure signing bonus. Not sure if BB will go there. If you franchise him, you are looking at an 8 figure salary for next year.
TBC had two good games and kind of disappeared in others. And who can forget the Drew play in Jacksonville. However he should be signable as well.

In FA I'd like to se them sign a WR and a big veteran ILB.

In the draft it is looking like we have 5 CB's with first round grades: Hall, Reves, Cason, Bennett and McCauley.
It also looks like we have 4 FS with first round grades: Landry, Nelson, Griffen and Merriweather.

I can't imagine at least one of them not falling to us and not being good value at either 24 or 32.

If Samuel leaves, we could draft a replacement or move Wilson to CB and draft a replacement FS.

If Graham leaves we could draft a replacement (Miller of ASU) or sign a replacement FA.

The whole key to this is how BB handles our own FAs.

 

[cstjohn17]

I agree, the FA is key. I started to do an updated mock but until the free agents are set it is very difficult.

If Samuel leaves (and I expect him to, want him to stay, expect to go) then CB is a need in round 1 or 2

Graham - hope he stays, he adds a physical presence to the offense, there is a direct relation to the offensive efficiency while he played and Watson sat. If he leaves one more roster spot must be filled, blocking TE , day two of the draft.

TBC - a little bit better than a JAG (Just Another Guy), to add youth to the OLB I could see one getting picked on the first day. A little less production in year 1 with a higher upside, and cheap.

ERFAs - Most did enough to get another look, not all will make the roster but should be invited to camp
Eric Alexander, LB, Brandon "Bam" Childress, WR , Kelvin Kight, WR , Corey Mays, LB , Gene Mruczkowski, C , Antwain Spann, CB , Gemara Williams, CB , Mike Wright, DT , Billy Yates, G)

RFAs - Baker & Gay
- surpise if any tender is offered to Baker
- Gay is interesting, he has some potential but as an RFA may not receive a tender, this site explains the rules, http://www.askthecommish.com/freeagency/
- basically if they don't give him a 1.5 M tender, they will have the right to match a contract but will not receive any compensation if he leaves (he was undrafted)
- hard to say if a fragile, 4th or 5th CB is worth $1.5 M, if he and Samuel leave CB is a glaring hole in the roster

Veteran LB - slim pickens, I doubt they would draft a LB and expect him to start, players like Napolean Harris (MIN), Fletcher (BUF) or K. Mitchell (KC) may be brought in. The market is so tight they will make way more than they are worth

Once these sitautions are resolved then the draft becomes a little easier.

I agree that settling the FA issue is huge.

According to the Globe, Graham is on the field for over 80% of the offensive plays. That means value to me, either as a blocker, pass catcher or chip blocker. He should be signable without busting the bank. If they franchise Graham that could cost around 4-5 million.
Next is Samuel. He's having a decent year statisically but he also got toasted a bit. If you sign him, you are looking at an 8 figure signing bonus. Not sure if BB will go there. If you franchise him, you are looking at an 8 figure salary for next year.
TBC had two good games and kind of disappeared in others. And who can forget the Drew play in Jacksonville. However he should be signable as well.

In FA I'd like to se them sign a WR and a big veteran ILB.

In the draft it is looking like we have 5 CB's with first round grades: Hall, Reves, Cason, Bennett and McCauley.
It also looks like we have 4 FS with first round grades: Landry, Nelson, Griffen and Merriweather.

I can't imagine at least one of them not falling to us and not being good value at either 24 or 32.

If Samuel leaves, we could draft a replacement or move Wilson to CB and draft a replacement FS.

If Graham leaves we could draft a replacement (Miller of ASU) or sign a replacement FA.

The whole key to this is how BB handles our own FAs.

 

[patfanken]

great effort - as guy who loves the draft and hates all the work, you guys are the best. Here is my 2 cents

1. The Pats are going to make at least ONE big splash on the FA market this season a la the Rosie Colvin signing in 2003. Ironically I think its going to be at the same position. Interestingly Biggs of the Bears and one of the good LBs with a funny name from the Ravens are both FAs this off season, and I expect one of them to be a Patriot.

2,The Pats NEED to get bigger and faster in the secondary. Here it ISN'T going to happen in the FA market since Clements (MN) and Samuel are the 2 "premier" CBs in this draft, and are pretty much interchangeable size wise, and while Clements is a great cover corner, he has horrible hands. So if I were the Pats I'd draft the best DB available in the draft, and sign Assante. BTW- I think they may make a deal, since the Pats value CB as a position much higher than WR,

3. This may also be the year the Pats draft a LB on the first day. I've seen mock drafts which land the Pats the LB from Mich (woodley) and the CB from Fresno (McCauley) That 1st round will thrill me. I also saw one where we got the McCauley and Griffith the S from TX. That will also thrill me.

4. I think the Pats will start with a base of 3 WRs (Caldwell, Jackson, Gaffney) then add a FA (maybe that kid Furrey from Detroit), a draft pick, or one of the young guys like Kite, or Bam who have been in the system for a while. With the offense we run and all the TEs we use, I don't see us carrying more than 5 WRs next season. SOrry, but I think this is Troy's last year with the Pats

5. What I DON'T want to see is an OLman, DLman, RB, QB, or TE. All those would be wasted picks IMHO. I want to see only 5-7 draft picks make the team and all of them be as high as possible. I think the Pats have about 10-11 picks again this year, I'd trade as many as possible either into future years or to move up and get more quality,

 

[patsfaninpa]

I heard Tom Curran on WEEI today. Nice to have a 4-day work week once in a while and a day off during the week. Anyway, he said that he considers Asante a slightly above average cb. A definate number 2. Maybe, about the 40th best in the league. Putting 2 and 2 together. I'm guessing he got some of his opinion(?) from Pats staff. I'd like to keep Asante. But, I think our past history has shown we won't. I think we franchise him and trade him. We can draft a cb number one and slide E.Wilson to safety. Provided, we get a good safety from the draft too. I can see a cb and s in round 1. Would be cheaper I think to upgrade lb thru free-agency. Re-sign TBC and sign London Fletcher. There are some ilb prospects whom might fit our defense; B.Davis -
FSU, H.B. Blades - Pitt and D.Harris- Michigan.

Leaves us plenty of room to sign D.Graham and H.Evans. Pretty much returning offense intact. Would like to add a wr. Either thru trade or draft. Maybe, we get extra pick for Asante if we can trade him. And, draft a wr on day one. I wouldn't touch R.Moss with a 10ft pole. But, a lot of people thought that about Corey Dillon and were proven wrong. A couple of vets that interest me and don't have character issues are Joey Galloway and Donald Driver. Wouldn't cost us an arm and a leg money wise or in compensation(draft picks). I'm sure Driver would return to GB if Favre returns. But, if he doesn't. Maybe, he'd be interested in moving on. TB could be sitting in a spot where C.Johnson is best player available. And, they have lots of needs. So, an extra pick for Galloway(#3 should interest them) might get it done. Would give us time to develop Chad Jackson.

 

[cstjohn17]

Curran was barely coherent today, some times he is ok but most of the time he is annoying. I like his columns but he is horrid on the radio and getting worse.

He reminds me of someone who was told they are funny once, so they try their stupid jokes over and over again. He doesn't know what the Patriots think, Samuels would be a starter on any team in league and a #1 on most. That puts him in the 12-18 range and the kid is going to the bank this year. He gets a minimum of $11 M up front and an average of 5.5 - 6.5. The final numbers could look like $31-35M over 5 years. With that kind of money I don't he really is that concerned with what TC has to say.

He doesn't get this kind of money from the Pats, these are the final games for Samuel as a Patriot.

I heard Tom Curran on WEEI today. Nice to have a 4-day work week once in a while and a day off during the week. Anyway, he said that he considers Asante a slightly above average cb. A definate number 2. Maybe, about the 40th best in the league. Putting 2 and 2 together. I'm guessing he got some of his opinion(?) from Pats staff. I'd like to keep Asante. But, I think our past history has shown we won't. I think we franchise him and trade him. We can draft a cb number one and slide E.Wilson to safety. Provided, we get a good safety from the draft too. I can see a cb and s in round 1. Would be cheaper I think to upgrade lb thru free-agency. Re-sign TBC and sign London Fletcher. There are some ilb prospects whom might fit our defense; B.Davis -
FSU, H.B. Blades - Pitt and D.Harris- Michigan.

Leaves us plenty of room to sign D.Graham and H.Evans. Pretty much returning offense intact. Would like to add a wr. Either thru trade or draft. Maybe, we get extra pick for Asante if we can trade him. And, draft a wr on day one. I wouldn't touch R.Moss with a 10ft pole. But, a lot of people thought that about Corey Dillon and were proven wrong. A couple of vets that interest me and don't have character issues are Joey Galloway and Donald Driver. Wouldn't cost us an arm and a leg money wise or in compensation(draft picks). I'm sure Driver would return to GB if Favre returns. But, if he doesn't. Maybe, he'd be interested in moving on. TB could be sitting in a spot where C.Johnson is best player available. And, they have lots of needs. So, an extra pick for Galloway(#3 should interest them) might get it done. Would give us time to develop Chad Jackson.

 

[Remix 6]

I heard Tom Curran on WEEI today. Nice to have a 4-day work week once in a while and a day off during the week. Anyway, he said that he considers Asante a slightly above average cb. A definate number 2. Maybe, about the 40th best in the league. Putting 2 and 2 together. I'm guessing he got some of his opinion(?) from Pats staff. I'd like to keep Asante. But, I think our past history has shown we won't. I think we franchise him and trade him. We can draft a cb number one and slide E.Wilson to safety. Provided, we get a good safety from the draft too. I can see a cb and s in round 1. Would be cheaper I think to upgrade lb thru free-agency. Re-sign TBC and sign London Fletcher. There are some ilb prospects whom might fit our defense; B.Davis -
FSU, H.B. Blades - Pitt and D.Harris- Michigan.

Leaves us plenty of room to sign D.Graham and H.Evans. Pretty much returning offense intact. Would like to add a wr. Either thru trade or draft. Maybe, we get extra pick for Asante if we can trade him. And, draft a wr on day one. I wouldn't touch R.Moss with a 10ft pole. But, a lot of people thought that about Corey Dillon and were proven wrong. A couple of vets that interest me and don't have character issues are Joey Galloway and Donald Driver. Wouldn't cost us an arm and a leg money wise or in compensation(draft picks). I'm sure Driver would return to GB if Favre returns. But, if he doesn't. Maybe, he'd be interested in moving on. TB could be sitting in a spot where C.Johnson is best player available. And, they have lots of needs. So, an extra pick for Galloway(#3 should interest them) might get it done. Would give us time to develop Chad Jackson.

incase u didnt know. Galloway is the only legit WR on Bucs .. hes not going anywhere

and he would cost $ aswell..Driver is going to ProBowl..so im sure he would cost but i highly doubt he goes anywhere

 

[rookBoston]

First thing is to take care of free agency. Our free agents, and my pick whether we extend them:

TE Graham, no. Not with Thomas and Mills on the roster behind him

WR Brown, yes. One more year, if he wants it. Whether he makes the 53-man will depend on the draft results.

LB Seau, yes. I think he'll want one more try for a ring; and we can use him inside

CB Samuel, yes. Assuming he'll sign for Belichick's pricetag.

LB Izzo, yes. Completely underrated, but BB knows what he's got.

RB Pass, no. I think Patrick's time has passed

LB Banta-Cain, no. I think the Pats will low-ball their offer, and he'll sign elsewhere. He's really not a great fit for our scheme, and BB is not going to spend money on him. If he comes back, it will be at a great cap number.

RB Evans, yes. I think BB will bring Evans in to fill out the RB position. At the very least, even if we draft another RB/FB, Evans will be in camp to give the rookie a run for the money. Also, there is always the chance that Dillon will decide to hang up his cleates, in which case, Evans is indispensable.

LB/S Davis, yes. The timeless one. Think Otis Smith. Davis will at least be back for training camp. If he gets cut, he'll be our new Conditioning Coach.

CB Gay, yes. Only BB really appreciates what he has in Blue. Maybe Mangini steals him away, but I think BB will step up to build depth at CB.

LB Gardner, no. Unless it's to compete in TC

OL Yates, yes. He's one of Dante's future pro-bowlers.

WR Gaffney, heck yeah. Looks like Deon Branch reincarnate, at a fraction of the cost. He'll be appreciative to the team that revived his career, after flatlining in Houston.

DL Wright, yes. Wright will be a Foxboro fixture for years. We'll be talking about him in 2010, as the veteran core of the D.

LB Alexander, dont care. Wont amount to anything more than camp fodder

OL Britt, yes. Another one of Dante's projects. We'll keep him until he's worth something on the trade market.

WR Kight, yes. As camp fodder, at least.

CB Mickens, yes. Unless he retires.


Note: some of the more successful players on the roster, including Graham and Banta-Cain, are the guys who BB is most likely to let walk. Even Samuel is pretty likely to leave. Those are the guys who will earn the team Compensatory Picks. Also, they're the ones who'll get attention from other teams-- the Pats wont get into a bidding war for players.

BB/SP make their money by re-signing the no-name guys, tier-2 guys like Kight, Gaffney, Yates and Evans, that no one else sees as useful. I think we underestimate BB's willingness to let his best players leave, even after years of seeing it happen, and watching him groom new players to fill the void.

That leaves a very different complexion on the roster. We actually need CB more urgently than LB, if we lose Asante and re-sign Seau. And if Tebucky, Mel Mitchell and Rodney all come back, why bother drafting a S at all?

Every year, by the time the draft rolls around, the Pats have a complete 53 man roster loaded with talent. The draft class just tops off the talent, and squeezes good players onto the IR-- it's never used to fill roster gaps at all.