#1 Seed - (merged playoff speculation threads)

[oldrover]

According to the ESPN playoff calculator (which isn't perfect, but it's what we got), if all the 10-3 teams in the AFC win out, Baltimore is the #1 seed, and NE is #2.

Next week's game is HUGE for the Pats. Road game, AFC opponent, and a winning record which will help quite a bit in strength of schedule calcs.

Presumably BJGE won't run out of bounds late to stop the clock.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Playoffs? Playoffs? Are you kiddin' me?......Playoffs?

Lets look at it rationally.

Can they limit the Jets?- yes

Can they limit Houston with a rookie Qb in January in Foxboro?- yes

Can they limit Flacco who doesn't have the receiving corp he once did who by all accounts is having an off year?- yes

Can they limit Denver?-yes

Can they limit Pitt if Big Ben can't move in the pocket?- yes

Can any of those offenses match up with NE?- Not really.

We need to stop thinking that the defense MUST shut down people and start thinking how the defense can keep he points scored against them to a reasonable amount.

If they face GB or NO in the SB, surely they will allow more than 30 points. The question is can Brady and Co score more on that day.

Either the defense needs to do what it has done 9 times out of 13, or the offense needs to win the game by being excellent, which it is very capable of.
I don't understand what teams people see out there that are in better shape than that.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Wouldn't we be the #1 seed if N.E., Pitt & Balt end at 13-3 and Houston is 12-4 (Balt would win Div and we own tiebreaker over them)?

What tiebreaker do the Pats hold over BAL? [BAL holds both common opponents AND strength of victory.]

 

[ctpatsfan77]

According to the ESPN playoff calculator (which isn't perfect, but it's what we got), if all the 10-3 teams in the AFC win out, Baltimore is the #1 seed, and NE is #2.

Next week's game is HUGE for the Pats. Road game, AFC opponent, and a winning record which will help quite a bit in strength of schedule calcs.

Presumably BJGE won't run out of bounds late to stop the clock.

Just to be clear, strength of schedule comes AFTER strength of victory (which only includes the teams you beat).

 

[groundgame]

What tiebreaker do the Pats hold over BAL? [BAL holds both common opponents AND strength of victory.]

You are right. My mistake, I thought we had defeated Balt this year (whom we do not play). Thanks.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Seedings if 10-3 AFC teams win out

AdamSchefter Adam Schefter

If Texans, Ravens, Patriots all win out and finish 13-3, Ravens will be 1 seed, Pats 2, Texans 3, according to ESPN researcher Vince Masi.

If we slip up and lose one game and the Jets make it in, we'll be playing the Jets again.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Re: Seedings if 10-3 AFC teams win out

AdamSchefter Adam Schefter

If Texans, Ravens, Patriots all win out and finish 13-3, Ravens will be 1 seed, Pats 2, Texans 3, according to ESPN researcher Vince Masi.

If we slip up and lose one game and the Jets make it in, we'll be playing the Jets again.

I believe it's because they would all have 10-2 conference records so the next 3 team tie breaker is SOV ( strength of victory) i.e. overall record of teams you've beaten. Ravens win hands down having beaten several 10 win teams ( Pitt twice, Sf and Houston) but the Pats WILL have a better SOV than Houston, even though the Texans have a better now now, they have to face Indy which will actually hurt their SOV. I posted elsewhere how the Pats are 6 wins ahead now but that could change. We want the teams that the Pats have beaten (Mia, KC, Oak, SD, Phil, Dal,Wash,Indy and even the NYJ x2) to win to help get the bye. Actually a Jets victory counts twice since the Pats beat them twice but I can't ever root for them.....and hope that the teams the Texans beat (Jax and Tenn etc ) lose.
Then again if the Pats win out and Balt and Hou each lose once, it's a moot point and NE would be the #1 seed....

 

[shmessy]

Re: Playoffs? Playoffs? Are you kiddin' me?......Playoffs?

I want to have faith, I honestly can't see this D stopping a playoff caliber team.

You're right. THIS D can't stop a playoff caliber team.

Hopefully one that doesn't have Matthew Slater, Nate Jones and Julian Edelman participating in Open Mike Night will be supplanted by one that has Pat Chung and Brandon Spikes back in there along with a healthier (by that time) Devon McCourty.

 

[Urgent]

Re: Seedings if 10-3 AFC teams win out

Then again if the Pats win out and Balt and Hou each lose once, it's a moot point and NE would be the #1 seed....

I believe Pittsburgh, who has beaten the Patriots, wins that tiebreaker.
In the scenario above, if the Pats win out, Baltimore & Houston lose, and Pittsburgh wins out, the Steelers are the #1 seed.

 

[patsfan13]

Right now, Houston owns the tiebreaker due to a higher SOV but if all teams win out, Balt gets #1 seed based on higher SOV ( it goes to this tiebreaker since all 3 teams Balt/Hou/NE) will have identical conference records at 10-2.
Hou has to face Indy which will hurt their SOV and put it below the Pats SOV

The Texans get the #1 now due to conference record not SOV, if all 3 teams win out Balt is #1 and we are #2 based on SOV and the Texans are #3.

IF Balt and Pitts lose a game and the Texans and Pats win out we will be the #1 seed.

 

[patsinthesnow]

What if Balt loses 1game and pats, texans, steelers win out?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The Texans get the #1 now due to conference record not SOV, if all 3 teams win out Balt is #1 and we are #2 based on SOV and the Texans are #3.

IF Balt and Pitts lose a game and the Texans and Pats win out we will be the #1 seed.

You're right. The Texans have played and won one more conference game than Balt and NE but if they all win out, they'll all be 10-2, then it goes to SOV.

 

[Haterproof]

The Texans get the #1 now due to conference record not SOV, if all 3 teams win out Balt is #1 and we are #2 based on SOV and the Texans are #3.

IF Balt and Pitts lose a game and the Texans and Pats win out we will be the #1 seed.

I'll just let the chips fall where they may. All of this SOS & SOV BS is too confusing for me.

 

[patsfan13]

What if Balt loses 1game and pats, texans, steelers win out?

Not sure how our loss to Pitts is factored in an a three way tie.

Better if Rothlesberger is hampered this week and they lose to SF.


If the secondary isn't healthy none of this will matter, really need the week off and to get McCourty, Chung & Ihedigbo healthy, if possible.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Not sure how our loss to Pitts is factored in an a three way tie.

Key point: a tiebreaker cannot be used unless it involves ALL teams in that tie.

So, for example, since none of PIT, HOU, and NE can say they beat (or lost to) both of the other teams (PIT d. NE, HOU d. PIT, HOU and NE didn't happen), that tiebreaker would be thrown out when comparing all three teams.

Once one team is selected, though (either as the low team or the high team) you go back to the beginning with the remaining teams.

And if you want to play around and see what can happen, there's always the ESPN Playoff Machine.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Huge week coming up. Baltimore is at San Diego, Pittsburgh is at San Francisco and we play Denver.
BTW, how awesome is that Jet/Giant game going to be on Christmas Eve? Both teams will need that game badly to enhance their playoff hopes.
Hope that's on the tube locally because that will be a war worth seeing.
Just awesome to have all these meaningful games this late in the season. Love the NFL!!