#1 Seed - (merged playoff speculation threads)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by TheBostonStraggler, Dec 12, 2011.

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  1. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler In the Starting Line-Up

    Probably not a big news flash but the #1 seed is almost unattainable. We would need Balt, Pitt and Houston all to lose 1 more game while winning our remaining three. Their remaining schedules are not helpful:

    Pitt - SF, St Louis, Cleve (SF is the only non long shot)
    Balt - SD, Cleve, Cincy (Which SD shows up?)
    Houston - Car,Indy,Tenn (Car win's a shootout with Houston?)

    No matter how you slice it, the odds are very steep for all 3 to lose 1 remaining game. The best hope is for Houston to lose and we grab the #2.

    Obviously the 1 wild card is determined (Pitt or Balt). The Jets hold the other. However, the Jets are in Philly with Vick back, a half home game versus the Giants, and at Miami where the Phins will be playing hard as possible against a hated rival (playing with nothing to lose). Of all the teams in the hunt, the Jets probably have the toughest week to week schedule. If the Jets lose just one, both Oakland and Tenn have the inside track to edge out the Jets (IF either team can win out). If that Jets loss is to an AFC team, Cincy also holds the tie break if they win out (Cincy may still win out on a lesser tie break even if the loss is non AFC). Arguably, the Jets need to win out or they have to have help from 3 teams.
  2. vuudu

    vuudu In the Starting Line-Up

    No, we only need Pitt and Balt to lose. We will be above Houston if we win out.
  3. resdubwhite

    resdubwhite In the Starting Line-Up

    No Jersey Selected

    I'll take no 2.
  4. Wax Frog

    Wax Frog In the Starting Line-Up

    #87 Jersey

    As will I!

    • The #2 seed has been historically kind to the Pats
    • If they play well, the bye will be sufficient, if not, seeding is irrelevant
  5. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    If one of Pitt or Balt is #1 and the other wins a wild card game, the #2 seed would actually be better to have than the #1.
  6. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

    Pitt and Baltimore both travel to the west coast this week. Both are capable of losing. Pitt at SF and Balt at SD. We're at a tough venue Denver against the messiah. We have a tough tone too. I think this week goes a long way towards determining the seeding. Don't see us losing either of the last two at home.
  7. DeionShow

    DeionShow Rookie

    Well, they had the one seed last year, with everything set up basically perfect, with the only playoff teams remaining being the ones they had already beat earlier in the year, and they still lost, so I'm just more concerned about them getting in.
  8. randomk1

    randomk1 In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    Those teams can definately lose one.

    And right now the way we have played the last few weeks i'll be happy with the bye.
  9. Banjo

    Banjo Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    c'mon Cam Newton! He needs to play lights out next week and beat the Texans
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2011
  10. Gumby

    Gumby In the Starting Line-Up

    #11 Jersey

    well, I wouldn't say unattainable (although certainly on our own merits based on our defense it is unattainable).

    I can easily see a scenario where it works:

    1. Pitt loses to SF next week.

    Hou loses to a rambling cam newton vs carolina next week as well.
    (he put up 23 on Atl and if he protects the football he can put up more points than the hurting Hou offense can keep up with.)

    & then in week 17 Balt just doesnt care vs a desperate Cincy in the last week. Because they are one up with tie-breakers over Pitt and up on Houston for the 2 seed regardless. So they let cincy have one (if they put up a fight) or just because they dont want to see the 5 seeded Pitt again.

    But all in all; I would trade a 1/2 seed for a defense that acts like it can shut some folks down the next 3 weeks.

    The WORST part of the poor D is the rep it gives the team. NOBODY will believe they have lost the game against the Pats if they are down by 3 scores in the 3rd. They will all think; 'hell Indy put up 21; we can put up 30.' So you don't give yourself any easy games (or halfs).
  11. MP-Logick

    MP-Logick Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Just want a first-round bye and HFA in the divisional round. If we have to win one road game to get to the SB I'm cool with that.

    Avoiding playing both Balt and Pitt would be terrific as well.
  12. vuudu

    vuudu In the Starting Line-Up

    T.J Yates is looking like the next Tom Brady people. Backed by a strong defense, strong running game.. watch out folks.
  13. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    if you do the playoff machine on espn... if the pats, texans and ravens win out... we still get the one seed i believe...
  14. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 In the Starting Line-Up

    pats are the #3 seed right now and if the playoffs started today the pats first game would be the jets
  15. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    #75 Jersey

    If so, does that "right now" thing discount the three upcoming possible conference/divisional wins over Den, with Buff and Mia at home, coming up?

    It's the tiebreaker of conference record that is probably skewing the "right now".

    If the Pats win out, that may tip the scale.
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2011
  16. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Just tried it and we ended up with the #2 seed.

    Then again, it said if Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh wins out and we are tied, we'd get the #1, which is incorrect due to head-to-head. So I think their machine needs a bit of tinkering?
  17. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler In the Starting Line-Up

    I was pretty sure we were the #3 if all teams win out, however, one poster says #1 and another says #2 (maybe the #2 is based on the nuances of the 3 way tiebreaker?). I'll assume for now we are currently 3 if we all win out.
    Can't say I am as enthusiastic as others about the chances of all of these teams losing 1 (far from it). However, I think our best shot is a Houston loss. Houston is seemingly open to losing to a team that can score a lot of points while it's own offense possibly sputters under the new inexperienced QB (at least I hope). This might make the ideal scenario for us at the #2 seed (as some have said):

    WC Weekend:
    Jets (or Oak, Cincy, Tenn) at Houston (Houston Wins)
    Pitt at Denver (Pitt Wins)

    Divisional Weekend
    Pitt at Balt
    Hou at NE (NE Wins)

    Conf Weekend
    Ideally Pitt at NE

    I'd have to say that is a very plausible scenario through the divisional weekend....with, unfortunately, NE beating Houston as the biggest worry imho.
    Regardless, if we win our last 3 (Denver is our toughest hill to climb), I see that divisional weekend as likely (it's in our own control!). And I can see that being the #2 means Pitt and Bal will royally beat the cr@p out of each other prior to playing us (or Houston) on Conf weekend. That is definitely a plus.

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

    #12 Jersey

    This has been discussed before and each time I get more confused, I still have no idea who gets the tiebreaker between us and Houston. So are you sure?

    Let's say us, Houston, and one of Pit/BAL win out and finish 13-3. What would be our seeding in those scenarios (1 with Pit and 1 with BAL)?

    I would HOPE at least a 2 seed I think they said it comes down to strength of victory between us and Houston?
  19. Darolyn72

    Darolyn72 Banned

    The Playoff machine doesn't fully work because it doesn't take in consideration other games that affect overall strength of schedule.

    Translation, a meaningless game between Jax and whoever. can affect Houston's strength of schedule.
  20. Darolyn72

    Darolyn72 Banned

    That being said the Bengals loss hurt. It hurt a possibility for a #1 seed. It hurt for Cincinnati knocking the Jets out of the playoffs all together which I might be the best thing we can look forward to. Another potential 1 and done, would be depressing.
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