patriots are terrible at drafting wr

Froob said:

It'd prefer to give up on drafting them all together and just sign veterans. Have a decent track record with vets. If a late round talent is available then give em a shot but, I wouldn't bother in the first couple of rounds.

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I feel your pain I just wish the patriots had s better eye for wide outs only thing about the veteran route the patriots don't like to pay for the sake of other pieces of the team

robertweathers said:

Based on your criteria I am being generous. I'm keeping it simple. Neither DA, LaFell or Lloyd fall in the Donald Hayes, Galloway, Ocho category.

I would also put Stallworth and Caldwell in the "success" category. They were only here a year but did well.

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Caldwell was 2006. Stallworth was 2007, and had lost his starting job by about midseason. Lloyd & Co. not being complete embarrassments to the sport of football doesn't mean that they were successes.

I liked Lloyd for the team, despite his limitations. I thought they should have kept him around and just added another piece. It was the team that decided he was not a success, not me.

From 2007-2015, the Patriots have either not a single successful WR FA signing, or they've had one, depending upon your take on Amendola*. That's just the math of it. I, personally, don't consider Amendola a success (Remember, he was supposed to be the successor to Welker), but he's not a complete dud, either. If there was a way to give a signing half credit, that's where I'd put him.



* To be fair, one could really call Branch a successful FA signing, rather than viewing him as a returnee.

Here is my question: are we bad at drafting WRs OR are we bad at DEVELOPING WRs?

Stallworth was signed before the Moss and Welker deals though, right? My recollection is that that was the first big move to fix the WR corps after '06. In any case point being though Moss was a trade (w/ a renegotiated contract) and Welker ultimately ended up being a trade (after a poison pill offer sheet as a RFA) I think those are tantamount to FA acquisitions. And those two transformed the WR position in NE for the next 4-6 years. Point being that you are absolutely right that since 2007 the Pats haven't had a bunch of success signing FA receivers, but part of that stretch is because there was really no reason for them to try. They still had both going into 2010, cut Moss in-season, went 14-2 anyway, and went into 2011 having the Gronk/AH thing going.

I think the more important distinction is between how NE straight-up drafts rookies vs. acquiring veterans. It's fair to say that they have struggled in the BB era to identify and draft the right WR prospects (besides Branch/Givens/Edelman...which is only 3 but it should be noted they have 5 SB rings between them and were a major part of each team). But since that's about a similar success rate in signing FAs and/or trading for veterans, I'm not sure what part of the process is breaking down, or if it really is breaking down at all. I think it's just a position where the failures are more obvious.

BB got Vrabel and Nink, for example, essentially off the trash heap that other teams didn't want. That's GREAT. Maybe we just don't spend that much time talking about all the DE/LBs he's signed that were underwhelming and washed out after a year or two. Part of the deal in why it becomes easy for some of us to praise BB despite some obvious "failures" is that almost all of these signings, at least initially, are done in a way that maximize opportunity if the player is good but minimize the damage if they're not. Lloyd is a good example - he wasn't exactly Megatron and he took **** for falling down...but overall the 2013 team would have been better for having him. For as great as Denver's O was that year, they won 13 games. NE won 12, ALL of them were close, Amendola played most of the year with that ripped groin, and we were lucky Edelman came to ball. Would have been nice to have another quality guy. Since we've been talking about HF advantage in a AFCCG, ya know.

I'd give up a 3rd round pick to lure the Steelers WR scout over here.

Gronk said:

Part of the deal in why it becomes easy for some of us to praise BB despite some obvious "failures" .

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what makes it easy to praise bb is that they've pretty much been in superbowl contention every year over the last 15 yrs --- that type of success is not only unique in the league, but unique in league history.

but, every year I see people on here nitpicking his 'failures' in personnel because of their ass backwards view of the draft.
the expectation on each guy drafted is not that he'll be a success --- that's ****ing ridiculous.
every single team in the league has a laundry list of 'failures', so it's pointless to start with those when talking about drafting success.
if you get maybe 2 starters in any given draft, that's success.

I always hear about how terrible they are at wr, and I won't sit here + claim they're particularly good at the position, but the reality is that over a 15 yr period they've drafted maybe 4 or 5 busters in the top 3 rounds, and that isn't really much + a very small sample size to evaluate --- probably majority of the league has missed on 4 or 5 wr in top 3 rounds over the last 15 yrs.

this is why I posted this article ---- at least they aren't looking at 9.
people way way way overestimate the number of 'hits' the league comes away with in any given draft.

eom said:

what makes it easy to praise bb is that they've pretty much been in superbowl contention every year over the last 15 yrs --- that type of success is not only unique in the league, but unique in league history.

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Hey just in case it wasn't clear I agree with you entirely...I'm just trying to figure out why it's sometimes fixated on WR "failure" rate vs. any other position. It seems more or less the same by my count, but WR seems to be a fixation for "busts" drafted in NE. There aren't, for example, such frequent "BB SUX at drafting safeties" discussions. They're obviously doing something right.

Gronk said:

Hey just in case it wasn't clear I agree with you entirely...I'm just trying to figure out why it's sometimes fixated on WR "failure" rate vs. any other position. It seems more or less the same by my count, but WR seems to be a fixation for "busts" drafted in NE. There aren't, for example, such frequent "BB SUX at drafting safeties" discussions. They're obviously doing something right.

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probably just because they just haven't had recent success at that position, as they tend to use their picks more on linemen + defense while maybe other teams are taking wr.
I understand it's not directly success at one narrowly defined position, but if bb drafts a jamie collins while some other team flushes a pick on an unproductive wr, I'm pretty happy with that.

and also, let's not forget that I'm sure they've been drafting later than any other team in the league if you aggregate the 15 yrs.

here's a list of all wr selected with pick 25+ in first 3 rounds from 2001+
Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com
how many teams am I supposed to envy?

Gronk said:

Hey just in case it wasn't clear I agree with you entirely...I'm just trying to figure out why it's sometimes fixated on WR "failure" rate vs. any other position. It seems more or less the same by my count, but WR seems to be a fixation for "busts" drafted in NE. There aren't, for example, such frequent "BB SUX at drafting safeties" discussions. They're obviously doing something right.

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The team has had problems fixing the WR position
The team has had problems fixing the CB position

Both positions have had problems despite a lot of FA/trade/draft capital devoted to them.

In contrast, the team's been successful, overall, at safety (i.e. Wilson, Sanders, Meriweather, McCourty via drafts, Harrison via FA), sometimes by poaching guys who came to the team as CBs.


It's really that simple.

Aside from the guys already named, Santonio Holmes, Emmanuel Sanders, Antwan Randel-El, and Plaxico Burress were all drafted since 2000. I can't believe Sanders and Antonio Brown were both in the same draft...that just kills me.

BradyFTW! said:

I think I remember reading somewhere that Belichick suggested to Dimitroff that trading up for Julio Jones was a bad idea since Jon Baldwin was nearly as good and would be available later in the round.

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Yes, that was from the book "War Room."

Belichick was concerned about Julio Jones' drops and felt that he was overrated. I believe that he felt that Baldwin was a better overall receiver, not just good value later on in the round.

He also claimed that Tyron Smith (LT) was the best player available in the entire draft, and somehow managed to look past JJ Watt--who fell to 6 spots ahead of us.

If only we could have drafted awesome WR's every year, then maybe we could've averaged 13.6 wins a season for the last 15 years.

Instead we've been cursed with this atrocious laughinstock excuse of a franchise for the last decade and a half. Why hasn't this FO ever figured out the only way to be successful is to consistantly spend your draft capital of 6-3+ WR's? Has no one on that management team ever played Madden? What gives?

Steelers have a different offense than the Patriots.

It's not as simple as seeing Player X put up big stats with Team Y, therefore Player X would have put up big stats with Team Z.

This isn't fantasy football.

In New England's offense, receivers need to be able to not only read the defense and react to it, but also make sure that they are reading and reacting in the same manner as their quarterback.

That is not easy.

That makes scouting for a receiver difficult.

And before someone suggests that the Patriots change their offensive philosophy, remember this: when you can find a quarterback and receivers that are on the same page in that manner, it is ridiculously difficult for an opposing defense to stop them.

With all that in mind it should be of no surprise that the ratio of busts/can't figure it out to success stories is nowhere near a 1:1 ratio.

That is why on the surface it appears that the 'Patriots can't draft/evaluate WRs', but the answer to that statement is far more complex and requires deeper scrutiny.

jmt57 said:

That is why on the surface it appears that the 'Patriots can't draft/evaluate WRs', but the answer to that statement is far more complex and requires deeper scrutiny.

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Welker figured it out
Moss figured it out
Gaffney figured it out
Branch figured it out
Givens figured it out
Edelman figured it out

We've gotten a full cross section over time. 'Rookies', veterans, physical specimens, midgets, etc...

The players are out there. When you're making choices like Jackson over Jennings, Dobson over Allen, Boyce over Wheaton, etc..., you're going to suffer for it.

jmt57 said:

Steelers have a different offense than the Patriots.

It's not as simple as seeing Player X put up big stats with Team Y, therefore Player X would have put up big stats with Team Z.

This isn't fantasy football.

In New England's offense, receivers need to be able to not only read the defense and react to it, but also make sure that they are reading and reacting in the same manner as their quarterback.

That is not easy.

That makes scouting for a receiver difficult.

And before someone suggests that the Patriots change their offensive philosophy, remember this: when you can find a quarterback and receivers that are on the same page in that manner, it is ridiculously difficult for an opposing defense to stop them.

With all that in mind it should be of no surprise that the ratio of busts/can't figure it out to success stories is nowhere near a 1:1 ratio.

That is why on the surface it appears that the 'Patriots can't draft/evaluate WRs', but the answer to that statement is far more complex and requires deeper scrutiny.

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The patriots run a very complex system but you can tell me that a rare talent like Antonio brown could not play in this offense or martavis Bryant I think player like jordy Nelson would excel in the Patriots system

Deus Irae said:

We've gotten a full cross section over time. 'Rookies', veterans, physical specimens, midgets, etc...

The players are out there.

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Agreed.

I just wonder how easy/difficult it is to determine what the chances are that a pass catcher will be able to figure it out prior to drafting him or trading for him.

Obviously one can show some film and ask 'what do you see here', but that is much different when you are sitting in a chair viewing all-22 compared to being on the field without that vantage point.

You can bring free agents in for an interview, but with a trade you typically have no prior access.

I love Edelman but I wish the patriots had a player that could go up and attack the ball


Brady misses a lot of deep balls but I think a lot of that has to due with the limited catch radius or speed the patriots WRs lack.

PatsfanCP said:

The patriots run a very complex system but you can tell me that a rare talent like Antonio brown could not play in this offense or martavis Bryant I think player like jordy Nelson would excel in the Patriots system

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Antonio Brown is an anomaly. He was passed over 194 times by NFL teams.

Heading into the 2008 season the Patriots had a much bigger need at linebacker than they did at receiver, so drafting Jordy Nelson at #10 would not have been a wise choice.

The draft is far from a sure thing, so hindsight 'shoulda drafted this guy' is an exercise in futility. Pittsburgh drafted Dri Archer 25 spots prior to Martavis Bryant. Other receivers drafted in between were Jalen Saunders, Bruce Ellington and Shaquelle Evans.

Two spots after Bryant was drafted, the Packers selected Carl Bradford. Green Bay fans were excited because he was rated as a second round prospect, but was still available in the fourth round. Bradford was a healthy scratch in every 2014 game, and was cut before the 2015 season began.

Even 'good drafting teams' like the Packers and Steelers have misses too. The 'hit' percentage on draft picks is closer to a MLB player's batting average than it is to an NHL goalie's save percentage.

PatsfanCP said:

I love Edelman but I wish the patriots had a player that could go up and attack the ball


Brady misses a lot of deep balls but I think a lot of that has to due with the limited catch radius or speed the patriots WRs lack.

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We saw it with Moss, and we see it with Gronk. Brady can make the throws.

jmt57 said:

I just wonder how easy/difficult it is to determine what the chances are that a pass catcher will be able to figure it out prior to drafting him or trading for him.

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I've no doubt that it takes a certain type of mind to grasp the nuances quickly, but people here act as if the Patriots have devoted a lot of capital to the position. They really haven't. BB has mostly shopped at the bargain basement when it comes to WRs. Just look at the contrast between BB's draft approach to WRs and TEs. In fact, look at every offensive position, except QB (RB/OT/IOL/WR/TE), and WR is the only position never to have a 1st round pick devoted to it in the BB era.