The Patriots' Schedule and What It Presents

I think they will land anywhere from 13 to 16 wins this year.

The Offense looks strong and I think will only get better as the season progresses.

The Defense looks good up front and I believe BB will have a solution for the Fletcher issue.

It's going to be a good year.

Lots of luck involved with football - this means you have to be a lot better then your competition to win every single game.What happened before is unlikely to be repeated. Even bad team can have two or three lucky plays that make it very hard to beat them on any given day.

Unlike the last few years where I was looking at games A and B and X and Y on the schedule and thinking those will be so very tough to win, this year I look at that schedule and don't see one game where I have that same sinking feeling.

So you know what that means????? Not much. It's only two games into the season. The Patriots have not defined who they are yet and most of the teams on there haven't either. Some teams will shore up their play over the weeks while others will wilt (the good news is I think Miami, Jets and Buff will all wilt given time). But, IMHO, the Patriots as an organization are better at the business of football. So when it comes down to it the Patriots need to heep shoring up and defining what they are -- specifically in the secondary. If Butler is a gamer and Brown/whomever can step up on the other side to just be serviceable (and fair health all around), I'm seeing pretty much what I saw last year and repeating almost exactly what I said last year: I like this team a lot and expect they will put themselves in a position to have as good a shot as any at the big prize.

BigPeteG said:

Even bad team can have two or three lucky plays that make it very hard to beat them on any given day.

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Seriously? Do Pats fans need any reminders about that?

SVN said:

Way too early to say anything after 2 games. As bruschi said today

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51973

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That is true, but looking at that schedule, there is nothing on it like the stretch of games last year against the top five QBs in the league. There are two elite QBs left on the schedule: Luck who is playing on a fatally flawed team with bad lines on both sides of the ball, and Peyton Manning who looks his age, especially in that system that forces him to play under center without an elite running back to reliably pick up the slack.

goheels22002 said:

That is true, but looking at that schedule, there is nothing on it like the stretch of games last year against the top five QBs in the league. There are two elite QBs left on the schedule: Luck who is playing on a fatally flawed team with bad lines on both sides of the ball, and Peyton Manning who looks his age, especially in that system that forces him to play under center without an elite running back to reliably pick up the slack.

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Very well-said. And I'd also like to add that the Pats caught a HUGE break by not having to play against Romo and Dez. Don't get me wrong, injuries on opposing teams should never be a cause to celebrate, but the small number of elite quarterbacks on the schedule should certainly lighten the burden on our (questionable) secondary.

goheels22002 said:

That is true, but looking at that schedule, there is nothing on it like the stretch of games last year against the top five QBs in the league. There are two elite QBs left on the schedule: Luck who is playing on a fatally flawed team with bad lines on both sides of the ball, and Peyton Manning who looks his age, especially in that system that forces him to play under center without an elite running back to reliably pick up the slack.

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Agreed.

Neither Luck nor Peyton is playing at an elite level. Peyton can have flashes but will never be the same QB he used to be. Luck just isn't as good as the media cracks him up to be - and beating the Indy defense is no mystery for BB.

This feels like 2007. Gronk and Edelman are as good and as unstoppable as Moss and Welker. The defense is good - not great- but should get better. The schedule is comparatively weak. The Patriots have plenty of motivation (not that they need any). It's hard not to feel very optimistic at this point. The chances of putting together all Ws are small but real.

goheels22002 said:

That is true, but looking at that schedule, there is nothing on it like the stretch of games last year against the top five QBs in the league. There are two elite QBs left on the schedule: Luck who is playing on a fatally flawed team with bad lines on both sides of the ball, and Peyton Manning who looks his age, especially in that system that forces him to play under center without an elite running back to reliably pick up the slack.

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Can't spell Elite without Eli.

I posted this in another thread but it belongs here.Hasn't anyone realized nobody is beating NE this year,look real hard at the schedule.This is an easy 16-0 year.Seriously who's gonna give the Pats a loss?It's like an NFL team playing a college schedule nobody else is in their league.AFC champs by default.Unless they rest starters week 17 this is a smooth undefeated season.It's really a shame there is no competition in the league anymore.Not trying to say they are only great cause they play bad teams but I just wish there was more elite teams,QBs in the league other than Brady and Rodgers.

TheOutsider said:

I posted this in another thread but it belongs here.Hasn't anyone realized nobody is beating NE this year,look real hard at the schedule.This is an easy 16-0 year.Seriously who's gonna give the Pats a loss?It's like an NFL team playing a college schedule nobody else is in their league.AFC champs by default.Unless they rest starters week 17 this is a smooth undefeated season.It's really a shame there is no competition in the league anymore.Not trying to say they are only great cause they play bad teams but I just wish there was more elite teams,QBs in the league other than Brady and Rodgers.

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I was gonna mention this, but I didn't want to jinx the team

Jlaff said:

Can't spell Elite without Eli.

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If you assume that in every game you have an 80% chance of winning,
the chance of going 19-0 is
(0.8)^19

or 1.4%

An 80% chance of winning is (to the nearest number) a 13-3 regular season, so that is actually a very lofty number to assume, and the 1.4% chance is likely an overestimate, even just among the best teams ever.

Of course we've already got 2 in the bag, so on a rosy day it's maybe (0.8)^17, or 2.3%!

We have 5 division games left. It's really hard to sweep the division. We've only done that a few times in 15 years.

VrabelJr said:

We have 5 division games left. It's really hard to sweep the division. We've only done that a few times in 15 years.

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Finish @Jets and @Miami there is a possibility of dropping one of those since you will already have top seed locked up.The only way I think you could lose one of those

We aren't going 16-0 guys. Quote me in 3 months if I'm wrong but it takes a ridiculous amount of stupid crap and luck to do it. Hence why it's been only done once. But 13-3, 14-2 is a very good possibility baring injuries.

TheOutsider said:

Unless they rest starters week 17 this is a smooth undefeated season.

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No such thing as a smooth undefeated season. Even in 2007 they barely beat Baltimore, beat the Egales by 3, the Indy game was close and they also only beat the Giants by 3 in week 17 when in hindsight it might have been better to rest players and not show anything to the GIANTS.

They have only beaten the two teams this year by 7 and 8 points. While I would love to see 16-0 and the Pats are probably the best team in the league it is extremely difficult to do.

It does take a good deal of luck to run the table. If it weren't for Rex calling an inexplicable timeout, Pats wouldn't have finished undefeated in the regular season in 07.

It does look easy now, but you never know. Here's my pointless game-by-game:

PIT - already won this one W 28-21 (1-0)
@BUF - ditto W 40-32 (2-0)
JAX - thinking a nice, boring W 31-17 (3-0)
Bye
@DAL - was going back and forth on this but with Weeden/old man Cassell, I'm not too worried. W 30-13 (4-0)
@IND - don't think we'll be able to run all over them like usual, but they just seem worse overall now anyway. W 37-28 (5-0)
NYJ - prime trap game territory. Last few NYJ@NE scores: 27-25, 13-10, 29-26, and they're better now than in all 3 of those years. L 16-19 (5-1)
MIA - this team doesn't strike much fear into my heart. W 27-14 (6-1)
WAS - see directly above. W 23-10 (7-1)
@NYG - not even going to bother thinking about matchups, etc. It's just never going to happen, guys. L 31-34 (7-2)
BUF - 2011 aside, recent history suggests that if the Bills are going to put up a fight, it's in Gillette rather than Buffalo. Still.... W 27-20 (8-2)
@DEN - I think our offense is just a bit better than their defense, and vice versa. W 30-20 (9-2)
PHI - Chip's either going to embarrass or be embarrassed. Picking the latter for now. W 42-21 (10-2)
@HOU - not the cakewalk people expect. Lots of them know lots about this organization and will want this game, not to mention the 2013 @HOU game was very close and this Houston team should be better than 2-14. To be fair, this team should be lightyears ahead of their 2013 version as well. L 20-23 (10-3)
TEN - don't overthink this one. One rookie QB can't overcome Ken Whisenhunt. W 45-14 (11-3)
@NYJ - hypothetically, the Patriots will be pretty motivated after already losing to the Jets at home. W 31-10 (12-3)
@Mia - at Miami...in January. W 38-14 (13-3)

That was more fun than paying attention to this stats lecture, I guess.

This kind of talk scares the hell out of me.
Let's just beat Jacksonville and not have any bad injuries.

DaBruinz said:

No offense, but your rating of Jacksonville and Tennessee leave something to be desired.. These are both teams with good young QBs. Jacksonville also has a good front 7.. Thinking they'll be a cupcake win is a fallacy..

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In every season there's always a win or two you don't truly expect and a loss or two you don't fully expect

In the end they tend to balance out

But you KNOW the Pats have gotten an earful about playing a full 60 minutes lately - and I don't think Belichick will let them let their guard down for any team

Pats-Phan said:

Jax is absolutely going to be cupcake city. They've gone from an embarrassment to mediocre. Big frigging deal.

Pats are gonna role teams all year. Gronk is in his prime and nobody in the league has an answer for him.
19-0 is my prediction. Call me a homer I couldn't care less.

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Not a homer, just someone who has little understanding of arithmetic.