Why Jordan Richards is a Top 64 Pick in the Patriots' NFL

scott99 said:

I actually loved the Wells pick, a freakish athlete who could wind up being a large, speedy cover safety.

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Wells is an incredible athlete. He has a long way to go to learn the safety position.

Big-T said:

He's drafted a pretty good player then.

Tavon Wilson gets a lot of flack on here and it's mostly undeserved. He's great on Special Teams and it slipped everyone's attention but look at this chart on coverage stats:

In 112 passing downs the man he was covering was only targeted 12 times and caught the ball half of the time from there

Chart from here: http://nesn.com/2014/12/darrelle-revis-shines-in-patriots-2014-season-long-pass-coverage-stats/

Also of note: Duron Harmon gave up 0 catches and got an INT on 2 targets in 214 passing downs which is quite frankly insane.

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Someone else probably brought this up but the most impressive thing about this chart to me is Duron Harmon.

214 coverage snaps and only 2 targets, with one being picked off.

JayNM said:

He can be Einstein on the field, it is all moot if he can't keep up with the freaks he'll face. I get why people defend this pick, intangibles and leadership are great traits. I just hope he is able to match all that with the physical part of the game.

Don't like the pick, he would have been there at the 3rd round, there were tons of better prospects. However, i trust BB to develop players. We shall see

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Here is what I believe. Bill makes it hard on himself. He has the extra steps of molding and honing that square peg to fit it the round hole. If truth be known he is successful less than 50% of the time. Now it is true that people who evaluate are humans and Bill might (and is entitled to) evaluate differently. But it is not his Draft prowess alone that gets us to the Championship games. He is best at evaluating under the radar free agents and trades...The Draft, not so much. In fairness, his first choices are very good considering the typical N.E. pick number.

I feel his best work is as follows (over the last ten or so years) :

Under the radar lower tier free agents:
Example: Ninkovitch, Siliga, Arrington
50%

Grade:B+



Free agency period higher tier talent:
Example: Harrison, LaFell

Grade:B-



Trades either pre-season or during the season:
Example: Talib, Ayers, Moss, Welker

Grade :A



First Round Draft picks:
Example: Solder, Jones, Hightower

Grade :B



Draft picks other than first round with documented talent:
Example: Gronk, Vollmer, Collins

Grade: C+



Forced Draft picks that are shots in the dark and way too high. The mantra BB uses is "value", and it is not inherent here as players are selected when that same talent can be acquired in later rounds. These picks are usually exposed:

Example: Dowling, Wilson, Richards [we''ll see] (these picks are kept and protected)

Grade: D



UDFA

Example: The Law Firm, Bolden, Malcolm Butler, Dane Fletcher, Gary Guyton

Grade: B+ (because every year he finds one or two that work)

Then why does he make unnecessary work for himself? His time is more valuable. That is why this Richards pick is a concern. He went against his copyrighted word: "Value". A fifth round pick if you have to step up a round because you are in love, is a fourth, not a second=Bad value.

If smart qualifies as a second round pick in the NFL Draft, we should be at Pro Day at "T..H..E..MIT Engineers" every year.

The Pats Team has many guys that are "smart". Give me 22 Gronks* and I will beat your 22 Richards.
*No offense Rob!
Talib, Dillon, Spikes and many more were not Mensa material but won games here.
DW Toys

scott99 said:

I hated the Richards pick. Huge reach. Love the person, seems like a really intelligent, mature young man who someday will be a leader in industry or academics. Just a great young man who is very likable. That being said, outside his mental make up and personality, physically and production wise, is he a 2nd round talent ? No way. The kid looks like he would ace ANY job interview due to his smarts, personality and genuine disposition, looks like he probably aced his interview with Belichick. Not sold on if he can be a good football player and worth a 2nd round pick. I look at the great talent available after he was picked and cringe.

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Mel Kiper says hi.

What if, in ancient days, the Pats feared that a slow and un-athletic QB they coveted with a decent but not "Bledsoe" arm wouldn't last until the 6th round where Mel Kiper and other know nothings predicted he should be chosen? Would BB be wrong picking him in the second round? Nobody would be complaining about Tom Brady being selected in the second rather than the 6th round even if, at the time of the draft, everyone howled about this "reach" pick. What if then QB Julian Edelman was picked in the 4th round?

Somebody above said that Brady doesn't have sideline to sideline responsibility like a DB. Everyone assumes that a 4.6 40 yard dash destines Richards to failure compared to safeties who run a more above average 4.4 40. This is ridiculous. 4.6 is not slow. Others can run faster. 4.3 and faster is elite cornerback speed. How about someone with adequate though not elite athleticism but with a football genius mind that maximizes their productivity? Somebody with superior positioning, play recognition and instincts can easily make up this .2 in the 40 speed differential.

It is less likely that these hidden gems last as long as Mel Kiper believes they will because more organizations better judge the true value of such sleepers. Chad Jackson was definitely a second round "reach" though nobody thought so when it happened. Richards is clearly Belichick's kind of player who, because he ought to fit so well in the Patriots system, could overachieve enough (at least compared to his 40 yard dash time) to be as valuable as the slot where he was picked.

The Boomer said:

Tom Brady says hi.

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Hi Tom!

The Boomer said:

Nobody would be complaining about Tom Brady being selected in the second rather than the 6th round even if, at the time of the draft, everyone howled about this "reach" pick. What if then QB Julian Edelman was picked in the 4th round?

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In prior arguments about "reaches", I used to bring up Dan Koppen. Bill would have been skewered for taking him in the second round, but it would have been one of the best in the entire draft. Hell, Dan would have been better than 60-70% of first round selections over the last decade.

All that matters is whether a guy can play. Bill can take nothing but projected UDFAs for all I care, if they can play the team will be fine.

I saw Rodney Harrison mentioned earlier in the thread.........perhaps BB was thinking of him or perhaps he was thinking of his favorite safety of all time Ed Reed when he drafted Richards. Either way he, BB, values intelligence in the position and he got it with Richards in spades.......

Way too much emphasis is placed on the 40 time. Straight ahead speed gets too much credit in a game where you rarely get to run straight ahead. Just for grins I went to CBSSports draft ratings and checked out several of the Free and strong safeties. There too they had Richards rated 5-6th. However I checked out his 3 cone time (my favorite indicator) and noticed it was a 6.73) Of ALL the safeties both free and strong, ONLY first round projection Landon Collins had a better one. He showed similar plus quickness in his shuttle.

I have always believed that it is ACCELERATION, not speed that makes great football players. It was acceleration not his 4.6 speed that made Barry Sanders great. The same goes for DB's. Having excellent acceleration, the ability to read defenses and take great angles to the ball can MORE than make up for a tenth of a second lack in straight ahead speed.

Now if I can find these slight inconsistencies in a ten minute trip to a draft ratings board, don't you think a NFL's teams professional scouting team might also notice that Richards seems to have better than average quickness to go along with his exceptional aptitude for the game, great angles, good reads, etc, that might offset a marginal lack of straight ahead speed. So isn't it more likely that BB had a good indication that if he passed on him at 64, HE felt that he;d have been gone by 96.

Its not like this was a top of the 2nd round pick. BB wanted the kid, if he saw pluses in him so would others and in a draft with little DB talent, it was going to get overdrafted. He wanted the kid on his team, and 64, he believed, would be the only time to get him. He might have been wrong. The "draft experts" thought he was, but I'm siding with BB just because HE has more info.

BTW- I found it was interesting that the biggest negative the CBSsports scout had came from ONE play at an East-West game practice.

DW Toys said:

Here is what I believe. Bill makes it hard on himself. He has the extra steps of molding and honing that square peg to fit it the round hole. If truth be known he is successful less than 50% of the time. Now it is true that people who evaluate are humans and Bill might (and is entitled to) evaluate differently. But it is not his Draft prowess alone that gets us to the Championship games. He is best at evaluating under the radar free agents and trades...The Draft, not so much. In fairness, his first choices are very good considering the typical N.E. pick number.

I feel his best work is as follows (over the last ten or so years) :

Under the radar lower tier free agents:
Example: Ninkovitch, Siliga, Arrington
50%

Grade:B+



Free agency period higher tier talent:
Example: Harrison, LaFell

Grade:B-



Trades either pre-season or during the season:
Example: Talib, Ayers, Moss, Welker

Grade :A



First Round Draft picks:
Example: Solder, Jones, Hightower

Grade :B



Draft picks other than first round with documented talent:
Example: Gronk, Vollmer, Collins

Grade: C+



Forced Draft picks that are shots in the dark and way too high. The mantra BB uses is "value", and it is not inherent here as players are selected when that same talent can be acquired in later rounds. These picks are usually exposed:

Example: Dowling, Wilson, Richards [we''ll see] (these picks are kept and protected)

Grade: D



UDFA

Example: The Law Firm, Bolden, Malcolm Butler, Dane Fletcher, Gary Guyton

Grade: B+ (because every year he finds one or two that work)

Then why does he make unnecessary work for himself? His time is more valuable. That is why this Richards pick is a concern. He went against his copyrighted word: "Value". A fifth round pick if you have to step up a round because you are in love, is a fourth, not a second=Bad value.

If smart qualifies as a second round pick in the NFL Draft, we should be at Pro Day at "T..H..E..MIT Engineers" every year.

The Pats Team has many guys that are "smart". Give me 22 Gronks* and I will beat your 22 Richards.
*No offense Rob!
Talib, Dillon, Spikes and many more were not Mensa material but won games here.
DW Toys

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At least the methodology behind these grades is based on something that makes sense and isn't just the incoherent ramblings of someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

I mean I can rest assured that the grades are based on Pats' success relative to the league and are not just based on top of the head musings.

This post is only lacking a detailed analysis of how the Pats can trade Josh Kline, Jordan Devey and a 2018 7th rounder to acquire the other 21 Gronks needed to actually field a competitive team.

DW Toys said:

Here is what I believe. Bill makes it hard on himself. He has the extra steps of molding and honing that square peg to fit it the round hole. If truth be known he is successful less than 50% of the time. Now it is true that people who evaluate are humans and Bill might (and is entitled to) evaluate differently. But it is not his Draft prowess alone that gets us to the Championship games. He is best at evaluating under the radar free agents and trades...The Draft, not so much. In fairness, his first choices are very good considering the typical N.E. pick number.

I feel his best work is as follows (over the last ten or so years) :

Under the radar lower tier free agents:
Example: Ninkovitch, Siliga, Arrington
50%

Grade:B+



Free agency period higher tier talent:
Example: Harrison, LaFell

Grade:B-



Trades either pre-season or during the season:
Example: Talib, Ayers, Moss, Welker

Grade :A



First Round Draft picks:
Example: Solder, Jones, Hightower

Grade :B



Draft picks other than first round with documented talent:
Example: Gronk, Vollmer, Collins

Grade: C+



Forced Draft picks that are shots in the dark and way too high. The mantra BB uses is "value", and it is not inherent here as players are selected when that same talent can be acquired in later rounds. These picks are usually exposed:

Example: Dowling, Wilson, Richards [we''ll see] (these picks are kept and protected)

Grade: D



UDFA

Example: The Law Firm, Bolden, Malcolm Butler, Dane Fletcher, Gary Guyton

Grade: B+ (because every year he finds one or two that work)

Then why does he make unnecessary work for himself? His time is more valuable. That is why this Richards pick is a concern. He went against his copyrighted word: "Value". A fifth round pick if you have to step up a round because you are in love, is a fourth, not a second=Bad value.

If smart qualifies as a second round pick in the NFL Draft, we should be at Pro Day at "T..H..E..MIT Engineers" every year.

The Pats Team has many guys that are "smart". Give me 22 Gronks* and I will beat your 22 Richards.
*No offense Rob!
Talib, Dillon, Spikes and many more were not Mensa material but won games here.
DW Toys

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Cousin,
One of your major mistakes is suggesting that Rob Gronkowski isn't a " smart" guy.

Cant remember if it was Brady or Belichick, but one of the two answered the TE position when asked what the hardest position on the Patriots would be to learn.

For fun:

Malcolm Butler:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=129122&draftyear=2014&genpos=WR

Jordan Richards:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=120213&draftyear=2015&genpos=SS

scott99 said:

I hated the Richards pick. Huge reach. Love the person, seems like a really intelligent, mature young man who someday will be a leader in industry or academics. Just a great young man who is very likable. That being said, outside his mental make up and personality, physically and production wise, is he a 2nd round talent ? No way. The kid looks like he would ace ANY job interview due to his smarts, personality and genuine disposition, looks like he probably aced his interview with Belichick. Not sold on if he can be a good football player and worth a 2nd round pick. I look at the great talent available after he was picked and cringe.

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Huge Reach? Based on what???? A bunch of web sites that get as much wrong as they do right? He's not physically a 2nd round pick? Really??? At 5'11 and 211 lbs? Production? You mean production that earned him All-Pac Honors this past year and honorable mention the 2 years previous?

Please enlighten us on what, exactly, are the measurables that DEFINE a 2nd round pick at safety. Here are the physical numbers of a previous 2nd round safety..

Louis Delmas: 5'11 3/8 - 201 lbs
40: 4.58
20: 2.60
10: 1.57

Reps: 12
Vertical: 37
Broad: 10'06"
Shuttle: 4.17
3-cone: 6.67

Hand: 9 1/4
Arm: 31 3/4


Jordan Richards: 5'10 6/8" - 211 lbs

40: 4.59
20: 2.64
10: 1.58

Reps: 13
Vertical: 34 1/2
Broad: 9'3
Shuttle: 4.22
3-cone: 6.74

Hand: 9 3/8
Arm: 32 1/4

It's amazing how you claim that he isn't 2nd round talent and then proceed to dismiss everything that makes him such. You also don't earn the name "COACH" if you don't understand what needs to be done on the field.

TALENT? Let me know when TALENT has won games over TEAM. Pretty sure this TEAM just won numerous games over supposed talent.

A reach is anyone who doesn't agree with Mayock or Kiper rankings

DaBruinz said:

Huge Reach? Based on what???? A bunch of web sites that get as much wrong as they do right? He's not physically a 2nd round pick? Really??? At 5'11 and 211 lbs? Production? You mean production that earned him All-Pac Honors this past year and honorable mention the 2 years previous?

Please enlighten us on what, exactly, are the measurables that DEFINE a 2nd round pick at safety. Here are the physical numbers of a previous 2nd round safety..

Louis Delmas: 5'11 3/8 - 201 lbs
40: 4.58
20: 2.60
10: 1.57

Reps: 12
Vertical: 37
Broad: 10'06"
Shuttle: 4.17
3-cone: 6.67

Hand: 9 1/4
Arm: 31 3/4


Jordan Richards: 5'10 6/8" - 211 lbs

40: 4.59
20: 2.64
10: 1.58

Reps: 13
Vertical: 34 1/2
Broad: 9'3
Shuttle: 4.22
3-cone: 6.74

Hand: 9 3/8
Arm: 32 1/4

It's amazing how you claim that he isn't 2nd round talent and then proceed to dismiss everything that makes him such. You also don't earn the name "COACH" if you don't understand what needs to be done on the field.

TALENT? Let me know when TALENT has won games over TEAM. Pretty sure this TEAM just won numerous games over supposed talent.

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A reach is anyone who doesn't agree with the rankings from the talking heads on TV. It means that any one who picks a player in a round higher then what was predicted, then the pick is a reach. The opposite of that is any player that is picked lower then what is predicted, is automatically assumed a great pick. The theory of arm chair drafters is that if a player is predicted to go in a lower round, then he will be available in that round.

Canuck said:

A reach is anyone who doesn't agree with Mayock or Kiper rankings


A reach is anyone who doesn't agree with the rankings from the talking heads on TV. It means that any one who picks a player in a round higher then what was predicted, then the pick is a reach. The opposite of that is any player that is picked lower then what is predicted, is automatically assumed a great pick. The theory of arm chair drafters is that if a player is predicted to go in a lower round, then he will be available in that round.

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Yup, but the biggest piece that complainer's seem to miss is that NE displays no less success on "reaches" than they do with more "valuable" selections. The whole concept is largely a construct of naivety combined with just enough information to be dangerous.

If he can play, he's a fine pick. If he can't, he isn't.

In reality, analysts should be saying, "Wow, there must be something Bill knows from interviewing his coaches, trying out the player, etc. that we don't see from game film and speed. And that's okay. Bill's the undisputed master at this game and he's the one who has to live with the players he chooses. We're just a publicity machine for ESPN and NFL."

Instead, they group young applicants, most of whom similarly qualified as multi-year starters on a college team, into castes based on height and speed, where the first caste is better than the next.

Bill cares more about who is still on the board at a given point, giving out tickets to players who should be able to survive his months-long audition for the team. He's not trying to sort the players by how he found them (Pro Bowl? Undrafted? Round 3? McDonald's?). The media cares more about that stuff.

If you were a manager in charge of hiring a dozen out of hundreds of similarly-qualified people for million dollar jobs, you would care about the results you see yourself, rather than only how a 3rd-party human or computer algorithm ranks applicants. Much less a reporter who doesn't have skin in the game.

McClusky said:

We've spent a lot of assets at the safety spot, very much at the expense of some other spots on our roster. If we're still working on it then something about our process isn't firing the way it should.

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It's extremely difficult to find solid safeties at the NFL level, so in that regard it's not difficult to see why they would invest high draft capitol to try and acquire players they think can be developed into a solid starter.

It's rare that rookie safeties come in and contribute, much less start, unless it's on special teams so it seems like one of those positions that BB constantly wants to keep farming talent for

You want safe choices, as much as possible, with your early draft picks. Players with high floors but with limited ceilings mixed with riskier picks is a way to hedge your bets.

Safer predictable high floor draftees:

Brown, Richards, Jackson and Cardona.

Riskier choices with speculative upsides:

Grissom, Flowers, Mason, Wells, Derby, Roberts, ****son and the UDFAs.

BB has done this for so many years now that his hits are less surprising than his misses. Almost nobody finds more gems in Rounds 6 and 7 plus with his UDFAs.

PatSunday said:

In reality, analysts should be saying, "Wow, there must be something Bill knows from interviewing his coaches, trying out the player, etc. that we don't see from game film and speed. And that's okay. Bill's the undisputed master at this game and he's the one who has to live with the players he chooses. We're just a publicity machine for ESPN and NFL."

Instead, they group young applicants, most of whom similarly qualified as multi-year starters on a college team, into castes based on height and speed, where the first caste is better than the next.

Bill cares more about who is still on the board at a given point, giving out tickets to players who should be able to survive his months-long audition for the team. He's not trying to sort the players by how he found them (Pro Bowl? Undrafted? Round 3? McDonald's?). The media cares more about that stuff.

If you were a manager in charge of hiring a dozen out of hundreds of similarly-qualified people for million dollar jobs, you would care about the results you see yourself, rather than only how a 3rd-party human or computer algorithm ranks applicants. Much less a reporter who doesn't have skin in the game.

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You seem to think that "the media" relies on height, speed and other measurables to determine their rankings, and that Belichick does not.

I strongly disagree. It is posters that rank based on measurables. The media folks have teams that have looked at the tapes of the players, their bowl and combine workouts and performance, and personal interviews with the players and with staff of the 32 teams.

mgteich said:

You seem to think that "the media" relies on height, speed and other measurables to determine their rankings, and that Belichick does not.

I strongly disagree. It is posters that rank based on measurables. The media folks have teams that have looked at the tapes of the players, their bowl and combine workouts and performance, and personal interviews with the players and with staff of the 32 teams.

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Do you really think 32 teams share their draft analysis with the media?
Really?