Zolak - Patriots think the league has NOTHING

Ring 6 · Jan 28, 2015

supafly said:
"Preponderance of Evidence" is simply the burden of proof. With Goodell's policy change, that has lessened significantly.

Things looked much better back when it was a case of simple physics. Now we also have a proven case of taking the balls into an unauthorized area as well.

I'm not claiming that we're screwed, but you'd have to bury your head in the sand to not realize that it's worse than it was before.

All that happened is it was reported that the person carrying the balls went into the bathroom. That is not something that isnt allowed.
It presents and opportunity but no more than if the field cameras show 90 seconds where he is out of view.
Prepondence of evidence doesn't have anything to do with this,because speculation of what happened in the bathroom doesn't overwhelm the other evidence which will ultimately be voluminous.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
The most frustrating part of this entire discussion to me is that BB and the Patriots actually REPLICATED the conditions, and reported the results.
How could? What if? and why? questions about what happened are pointless without this context.

The Patriots prepped the balls, raising the pis 1 to 1.5 lbs. The Patriots handed the balls to the refs after being prepped (up 1-1.5) and having been stored at indoor temperatures. The effect of bringing them outside is another .5 to 1 psi.
BOTH OF THESE EFFECTS ARE TEMPORARY, AND AS THE BALLS STABILIZES FROM PREPARATION AND WARMS BACK TO ROOM TEMP, THEY GO AWAY.

The Patriots prepare the footballs, on game day, and hand them to the refs in the state where they are temporarily over pressurized by preparation and are at room temp.
Lets assume they are 12.5.
If the balls sat in the room for a few hours, they would drop to 11 to 11.5 (normalizing from the preparation).
If they are taken outside they will now drop another .5 to 1 pound and be anywhere from 10 to 11.
When they are return inside they will warm to 11 to 11.5 but never again reach the 12.5 that the refs measured (if they did) because the effect of prep is gone forever.

The Colts balls were prepped in Indy (I cant fathom why they would do it here). So the Patriots footballs and the Colts footballs will differ in deflation by 1 to 1.5 psi because of the effect of preparation. Since the balls are delivered to the refs 2:15 before kickoff, we do not know where they were stored, so we do not know whether the effect of being taken into the cold would apply.

Patriots footballs if started at 12.5 will be 11 to 11.5
Colts if started from 12.5 to 13.5 would be either 12.5 to 13.5 if started cold, or 11.5 to 13 if started from warm.

As far as the second half footballs, that is very easy to explain as well.
These balls by the time the game was over had return to 'pre-prep' equilibirum, and inflated to whatever the refs did, and had been in the cold already, so had neither effect (prep or cold) impacting them, so they would have measured the same before and after.

This is incontroverible logic if taken with the results of a field test to replicate conditions that BB did.
It cannot be disproven without a separate field test to show BBs findings are wrong, and they would have to be drastically wrong.

The only thing we can hope for Andy, is that the independent third party investigators may realize these results. One may assume that they're having some tests done throughout this whole thing.

Not only the realization of this, but also the ability to focus on the main point--will be key. If they start getting sidetracked with the ball boy stuff the team may be screwed.

Either way, I doubt that any suspensions come from it, and that's all I'm personally concerned about. I've accepted long ago that there will be some type of punishment and that the NFL isn't going to admit any mistakes.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
All that happened is it was reported that the person carrying the balls went into the bathroom. That is not something that isnt allowed.

I'm guessing there's no official rule preventing it, but you can bet it will be changed now.

AndyJohnson said:
Prepondence of evidence doesn't have anything to do with this,because speculation of what happened in the bathroom doesn't overwhelm the other evidence which will ultimately be voluminous.

That's obviously the hope, but I respectfully disagree that the lower burden of proof does not apply here.

I suppose it will all depend on how Goodell sees things, but based on his past work I'm not feeling too comfortable.

Ring 6 · Jan 28, 2015

supafly said:
The only thing we can hope for Andy, is that the independent third party investigators may realize these results. One may assume that they're having some tests done throughout this whole thing.

Not only the realization of this, but also the ability to focus on the main point--will be key. If they start getting sidetracked with the ball boy stuff the team may be screwed.

Either way, I doubt that any suspensions come from it, and that's all I'm personally concerned about. I've accepted long ago that there will be some type of punishment and that the NFL isn't going to admit any mistakes.

These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

PromisedLand said:
BTW I have an MS and BS in engineering from two of the best American engineering schools. I know the physics.

We have many here who are well educated in this subject matter, as well as some who are well educated on the criminal justice and legal sides of it.

Just this week, we had a poster that Peter King pointed out in his Sports Illustrated article.

Ring 6 · Jan 28, 2015

supafly said:
I'm guessing there's no official rule preventing it, but you can bet it will be changed now.

Perhaps, but really, why? This is so stupid.

That's obviously the hope, but I respectfully disagree that the lower burden of proof does not apply here.

Well it applies, but the 90 seconds does virtually nothing to swing the proof. I should have said it that way.
It is a drop in a very large bucket.

I suppose it will all depend on how Goodell sees things, but based on his past work I'm not feeling too comfortable.

There is no evidence, and an independent team will issue a report before Goodell can rule. He cannot find guilt where it doesnt exist.

turkeyneck · Jan 28, 2015

supafly said:
Just this week, we had a poster that Peter King pointed out in his Sports Illustrated article.

Who King then blithely went on to discount in favor of his "patriots guilty" position.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

I hope that you're right, but I believe that the lower burden of proof may be another obstacle that will have to be overcome.

And, as happy I am about the third party investigators (at the moment, anyway), I'm still quite leery about Roger Goodell's power.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

turkeyneck said:
Who King then blithely went on to discount in favor of his "patriots guilty" position.

The media has been circling the chum thrown in the water for 9-10 straight days now. That shouldn't surprise any of us, as much as it sucks.

It was still good to see one of our own stand up for what he believed in, have Peter King actually return a phone call to him to pursue it further, and write about the fact that he made a very good point.

The Gr8est · Jan 28, 2015

supafly said:
I'm guessing there's no official rule preventing it, but you can bet it will be changed now.

That's obviously the hope, but I respectfully disagree that the lower burden of proof does not apply here.

I suppose it will all depend on how Goodell sees things, but based on his past work I'm not feeling too comfortable.

The rule might be changed, but which team is being monitored for an infraction won't be.

The Gr8est · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

Hopefully the investigators' independence, professionalism, and lack of bias is different from that of the Omissioner's.

supafly · Jan 28, 2015

The Gr8est said:
The rule might be changed, but which team is being monitored for an infraction won't be.

And this is just one of the reasons for my skepticism.

It's ******** x100.

Hoodie · Jan 28, 2015

turkeyneck said:
If I had to defend this ball attendant in court, I would call Goodell to the stand and set him the task of dumping 24 footballs (12 game + 12 backup) from a ball ball bag and putting them all back in the bag within 90 seconds. Footballs behaving the way they do when set loose, I doubt that he could do that.

You're spot on here. I've been amused to see people attempt to deflate 11 balls in 90 secs. The balls are everywhere, they use the sink to hold them, the rest are like herding cats.

Hoodie · Jan 28, 2015

Show416 said:
This is actually a good point...

do we know they didn't?

lurker1965 · Jan 28, 2015

PatsWSB47 said:
Listening to Florio on WEEI right now. says the NFL can punish the Pats simply because the balls weren't at 12.5. No explanation or proof of intent is needed. said another head coach tested to see if he could deflate 12 balls in 90 seconds and he was told he did and still had time to take a piss. Lets face it, Pats are going down on this. The leaks are leaks for a reason, they want to take the pats down.

So the league denies basic physics. Yes temperature affects pressure. If they get ANY punishment Kraft needs to go to court for an injunction.

Tony Cahncuhd · Jan 28, 2015

PromisedLand said:
To me the key fact NOT in evidence here is whether there was in fact a controlled experiment done by the officials. Did they in fact recheck BOTH teams' balls, or only the Patriots'? If they did check the Colts' balls and found them to have retained significantly more pressure than the Patriots', that would imply something was different about our balls - either they were messed with, or their was something different about them already when the officials checked them pre-game. Without that control, it is difficult to draw any conclusive results from the simple fact that the balls allegedly measured less at halftime than they did pre-game.

BTW I have an MS and BS in engineering from two of the best American engineering schools. I know the physics.

Great point. The Smart Labs video actually demonstrates this effect experimentally.

Yet another way pressure could be lost is through condensation of water vapor in the humid air pumped into a football. Any water that goes from vapor phase to liquid is subtracted from the internal gas pressure.

If a ball boy did indeed deflate the footballs, once you add the additional loss of pressure from the weather, the balls when tested had too much pressure to allow both events to have occurred. So, either no one deflated any footballs or the laws of nature were suspended. Those are the only two choices.

PlainOldEd · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

I entirely agree with the last sentence, and i really really really hope the rest is true.

PlainOldEd · Jan 28, 2015

I am uncomfortable with the latest narrative which seems to be "something happened but 2 psi doesnt make any difference anyway so people should chill". The sports science guy was on weei thiz afternoon and he was saying that what Bill said cant be true, but it doesnt matter because the difference is negligible. Even Thornton was Agreeing with him. Why would he agree with someone who is basically saying BB is lying?

Hoodie · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

I am confident in the Patriots too but not so much in the NFL. I hope you're right about them being independent etc.

Froob · Jan 28, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
These are a team of professional investigators, not Jet fans posting on this board. They are independent, professional and unbiased.
They aren't going to ignore all of the facts and conclude that since the ballboy was out of sight for 90 seconds that is the only explanation.
They are going to take all of the facts into consideration.
They have the results of the replications BB did. They will speak to everyone involved.
The truth will come out. I am 100% confident that the truth is the Patriots are guilty of absolutely no wrong doing.

Hope you're right. Unless Ted Wells wants to do Goodell investigations the rest of his career he won't indicate the Patriots. Nobody would hire a guy dumb enough to convict someone for taking a minute and a half piss.

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