We're on to Baltimore

JMC00 said:

Defensively not even close.

2009 was the worst Pats team in the BB/Brady Era
2011 one of the worst defense in their history of the league
2012 better on defense than the other two but nowhere near as good as this one. Not to mention Talib went out early in the 2nd quarter.

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Yeah, the idea that those teams were better is absurd. You could make a case that the 2011 offense was better, but it had an historically bad passing defense riding shotgun. 2012 was without Gronk, worse WRs, better than 2011's defense, but worse at every position than what NE has now.... and 2009? Really?

TommyBrady12 said:

Every time this team faces an easy opponent in the divisional we end up getting bounced later on - houston, tebow-led broncos, colts. Maybe getting over this ravens hump will give them confidence going to the AFCG.

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Not seeing the correlation, sorry.

Oswlek said:

Baltimore has certainly had success against the Patriots, but can we all please agree to not mention 2009 or include data from that game in any analysis. Not only is it wholly irrelevant, including that game increases inaccuracy.

Thank you.

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I never said that the 2009 teams were equivalent. Or 2011, or 2012.

I said that the Ravens, under the same HC/QB and strong defensive front are unintimidated coming to Foxboro. I believe our HFA is real when it comes to playing a lot of other teams. I don't think it is there when we play Baltimore.

The Jets are also a crap shoot team and under that one HC and consistent defensive front have given us fits in the past couple years when they really had no business beating us.

Now if others disagree and think that all of this is irrelevant and this year our offense (especially the line) is so good that our old struggles versus that defense will not surface, so be it. We shall see. I just think the Ravens will give us all we can handle.

Kdo5 said:

I never said that the 2009 teams were equivalent. Or 2011, or 2012.

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I'm not sure how this relates to what I wrote (though you did say those Patriot teams were better earlier), because I didn't say 2009 was equivalent nor did I imply that in the comment you quoted. I said that including that game in any way leads to inaccurate results when forecasting this game. It shouldn't even be mentioned in an offhand sort of way, like "Baltimore has won 2 out of the last 3 playoff games", it should be completely ignored.

rochrist said:

Pittsburgh is a frightful scare for the Pats?

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That reads like sarcasm due to the proliferation of "Pitt is the team that worries me the most!" threads last week, commentary that seemed off base beforehand and is obviously even more so in retrospect.

Rob0729 said:

The Bengals run the ball better than the Broncos and that didn't get them to score more than 10 points today.

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The Bengals also had receivers the Colts could completely ignore. Barring a blizzard, there is no way Denver scores less than 30 points on Indy. The only chance the Colts have is stealing a 38-34 kind of game.

Oswlek said:

The Bengals also had receivers the Colts could completely ignore. Barring a blizzard, there is no way Denver scores less than 30 points on Indy. The only chance the Colts have is stealing a 38-34 kind of game.

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All they need is it to be cold and it will likely affect Manning to make him a non-threat or at least a reduced threat. I say if it is under 35, the Colts take the same strategy in dedicate to stop the run and force Manning to throw. If you make Manning throw outside the numbers, he is not very good anymore. You give him the center of the field and he can beat you.

Who knows what kind of a game we are going to get out of Josh McDaniel? Will he be more
concerned about his future elsewhere or the game on hand? He is coming off two terrible games.
He coached the Buffalo game like an exhibition game, passing up field goals and designing running
plays for Garoppolo. Professionals play to win, no matter what players are on the field.

Jimke said:

Who knows what kind of a game we are going to get out of Josh McDaniel? Will he be more
concerned about his future elsewhere or the game on hand? He is coming off two terrible games.
He coached the Buffalo game like an exhibition game, passing up field goals and designing running
plays for Garoppolo. Professionals play to win, no matter what players are on the field.

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Seriously, you complaining about the game plan for Buffalo where the Pats played fairly vanilla on both sides of the ball? Really, along with your post in the other thread, you are really going to beat the whole "The Pats weren't sharp against the Jets and Bills so the Ravens are going to kill them" argument into the ground?

Rob0729 said:

All they need is it to be cold and it will likely affect Manning to make him a non-threat or at least a reduced threat. I say if it is under 35, the Colts take the same strategy in dedicate to stop the run and force Manning to throw. If you make Manning throw outside the numbers, he is not very good anymore. You give him the center of the field and he can beat you.

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I think it's just the opposite, I think the Patriots strategy last time was to take away the outside and force him to throw over the middle because that's where the ducks hurt him most. He is still outstanding at placing the ball and using the sidelines to his advantage but when he is lobbing it over the middle anything can happen. Of they play Denver I think Revis takes away Sanders and Browner and McCourty bracket Thomas. Take them away and I don't believe n Manning can beat them with welker and J. Thomas.

I don't overlook Denver unless it is really windy. If the game were today Manning would be done.

Oswlek said:

The Bengals also had receivers the Colts could completely ignore. Barring a blizzard, there is no way Denver scores less than 30 points on Indy. The only chance the Colts have is stealing a 38-34 kind of game.

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The only way that happens is if Taleb "pulls a hammy" as is his post season wont

Rob0729 said:

All they need is it to be cold and it will likely affect Manning to make him a non-threat or at least a reduced threat. I say if it is under 35, the Colts take the same strategy in dedicate to stop the run and force Manning to throw. If you make Manning throw outside the numbers, he is not very good anymore. You give him the center of the field and he can beat you.

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I don't think the Colts /can/ stop the run.

PatsWickedPissah said:

The only way that happens is if Taleb "pulls a hammy" as is his post season wont

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Or if he bruises, we wouldn't want that to happen.

rochrist said:

I don't think the Colts /can/ stop the run.

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They can't, but Peyton can.

Ivan said:

I think it's just the opposite, I think the Patriots strategy last time was to take away the outside and force him to throw over the middle because that's where the ducks hurt him most. He is still outstanding at placing the ball and using the sidelines to his advantage but when he is lobbing it over the middle anything can happen. Of they play Denver I think Revis takes away Sanders and Browner and McCourty bracket Thomas. Take them away and I don't believe n Manning can beat them with welker and J. Thomas.

I don't overlook Denver unless it is really windy. If the game were today Manning would be done.

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Nah, the Pats forced him to throw outside the numbers. And the Rams copied the strategy. So did the Bengals. Manning sucks at throwing outside the numbers.

All four of Manning's interceptions Monday were on passes thrown outside the numbers. And that’s a trend that’s been the case the last six weeks, especially on deep passes.

Since the start of Week 11, Manning has four interceptions on passes thrown outside the numbers at least 15 yards downfield, tied with Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick for the most on those throws in the NFL. Manning is completing 34.4 percent of those passes, below the NFL average for qualifying quarterbacks of 37.6 percent. Manning did not have an interception on that type of passes from Week 1 to Week 10.

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http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/100403/numbers-show-how-manning-has-struggled

Rob0729 said:

Nah, the Pats forced him to throw outside the numbers. And the Rams copied the strategy. So did the Bengals. Manning sucks at throwing outside the numbers.



http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/100403/numbers-show-how-manning-has-struggled

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D. Thomas and Sanders combined for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs, Welker and J.Thomas less than a 1,000. I still think you shut down the outside first and give him the middle, he can't beat you if D. Thomas and Sanders are shut down. If I am not mistaken his picks against the Patriots came inside the numbers.

Ivan said:

D. Thomas and Sanders combined for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs, Welker and J.Thomas less than a 1,000. I still think you shut down the outside first and give him the middle, he can't beat you if D. Thomas and Sanders are shut down. If I am not mistaken his picks against the Patriots came inside the numbers.

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A large portion of those yards to the WRs came on crossing routes, so it isn't as simple as yardage for a WR = outside. Rob is right, teams have been forcing Manning to throw outside and the results haven't been that great.

Ivan said:

D. Thomas and Sanders combined for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs, Welker and J.Thomas less than a 1,000. I still think you shut down the outside first and give him the middle, he can't beat you if D. Thomas and Sanders are shut down. If I am not mistaken his picks against the Patriots came inside the numbers.

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Did you read the article? Weeks 1-10, they had no problem throwing outside the numbers. Week 11 on, Manning has been awful outside the numbers. Why? Because the Pats showed to flood the center of the field and forced Manning to throw outside the numbers. Since then, teams have been copying that strategy.

And comparing D. Thomas and Sanders to J. Thomas is a little silly since J. Thomas missed a bunch of games. Early in the season, Julius Thomas was on track to not only beat Gronk's TE TD record, but Moss' receiver TD record.

Ivan said:

D. Thomas and Sanders combined for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs, Welker and J.Thomas less than a 1,000. I still think you shut down the outside first and give him the middle, he can't beat you if D. Thomas and Sanders are shut down. If I am not mistaken his picks against the Patriots came inside the numbers.

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I recall that the pick that cost them the playoff game two years ago came over the middle.

I think a lot of people agree Baltimore is the toughest draw we could have had of the 3 teams and the worst match up. I agree with that statement and was initially disappointed.

However looking at it now I am glad we got Baltimore. I do believe there is sometime to the theory of being battle tested in the playoffs. I think if we want to win the super bowl we will need to face at least 1 more good front 4. I think it will be better to face a team like Baltimore now and make us more ready to beat a team like Seattle later on.

I've made this argument over the past 2 days. I generally agree, so long as we don't get so banged up that it affects us down the road.