The Trade - 8 Games Later

varjao · Oct 28, 2014

We got the TE we needed for peanuts, that's a win already in my book. This move also make something definetely clear, Hooman garbage, he is proven useless right now, I would pack him with another player and send for a swing tackle or another bottom of the roster LB.

OhExaulted1 · Oct 28, 2014

unoriginal said:
Same points: the Pats scored all their points in the first half this year, going 4 for 6 on drives. Last year was the game after losing Gronk and the Pats were naturally ineffective in the red zone, going 1 for 4. This year, the Pats had Gronk, he scored a TD, they went 2 for 2 in the red zone, the problem was they couldn't move the ball in the second half. They had something like 50 yards of offense after halftime, and went 0 for 6 on drives.

TOP: The Dolphins possessed it less this year because they were given short fields due to offensive turnovers caused by the pass rush. The Pats ran 37 plays in the second half (vs. 43 in the first half), but moved less than 50 yards, with 15 plays and 37 yards coming on their final drive against a prevent defense.

Against the Dolphins last year, the Pats allowed one sack. This year, they allowed four sacks. Yards per pass was down from 6.5 to 3.8! 5 is mediocre.

Excepting the final drive, the Pats ran 18 pass plays for 10 yards of offense in the 2nd half. The last drive was 13 plays for 25 yards. Together, that's 1.3 yards per pass. In the first half, the Pats averaged 7.4 yards per pass.

I didn't have Devey down for many sacks, those came from Brady's blind spots outside the tackle box, but he had by far the most pressures allowed.

I think Mankins, or anyone really, would have resulted in a vast improvement over Devey.

EDIT: also I think Solder left the game last year with a concussion so the Pats had to kick out Mankins at LT to go with Cannon and put in Kline. With backup tackles and a backup guard to go along with Wendell at center the Pats still moved the ball and came within a play of winning, they just had no red zone offense. This year, the Pats were one warm body (Mankins, Kline) away from moving the ball at all.

Don't see these games being very comparable, only contrastable.

The line was obviously in disarray in that game. There was no continuity. That's what I saw. As stated, I think the timing of the trade, in the short term, had an effect. Thank the schedule makers for giving us @ Minn and Oak after that. If it had been @GB and Den instead we probably wouldn't be 6-2.

:
Brady was hit 17 times Sunday, and he hit the ground 12 times, including 4 sacks. He was also hurried 8 times. Brady can’t survive that can of beating for the entire season.

Boston Herald broke down every OL and the hits or sacks they allowed:

“Left tackle Nate Solder allowed two sacks and one additional hit. Left guard Marcus Cannon surrendered four quarterback hits, including three that resulted in Brady landing on the ground, none worse than the wallop he took from Jared Odrick on third-and-5 late in the fourth quarter.

Right guard Jordan Devey had plenty of issues, especially in the third quarter, and allowed two hits (one ground) and four hurries. If Solder didn’t allow Chris McCain’s third-quarter sack, Odrick would have gotten the job done after beating Devey with far too much ease. Defensive tackle Earl Mitchell also blew through Devey in the third quarter to stuff Ridley for a 2-yard loss.

Right tackle Sebastian Vollmer continued to have trouble with longtime nightmare Cameron Wake. Vollmer allowed one strip-sack, four more hits (three put Brady on the ground) and one additional hurry.

Ryan Wendell allowed one hit and Connolly allowed one hit to the ground and 2 hurries.”

ivanvamp · Oct 28, 2014

Almost no argument can be made at this point that the trade was a bad one. Yes, the OL looked ragged early on, but while Mankins may have been missed, the real issue was that they couldn't get the OL they wanted out there at once anyway. Now that they've gotten the 5 guys they want out there, the OL looks terrific.

Wright has been very solid, adding diversity to the offense. He's young, cheap, and should be a factor for years.

The pick from Tampa should be a solid one - a high pick in the 4th round has real value.

And the Pats are 6-2. Maybe - MAYBE - the loss of Mankins cost them one game, but which one? The Miami game? That was really on the defense wilting in the Miami heat. The KC game they got absolutely crushed - the defense couldn't stop the Chiefs at all, and Mankins does nothing to solve that.

So while they didn't play well the first four games, it's hard to see where Mankins turns one of those losses into a win.

Plus, the Pats got a ton of cap space. Who knows what they'll do with it. Extend key players? Add talent at this trading deadline that they couldn't have otherwise? I'm sure they'll find something productive to do with it, but even if they don't, the trade is still a win.

I'd love to see a coherent argument to the contrary.

Rob0729 · Oct 28, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
This is an interesting comment. Is success when thrown to an indication that you warrant more throws? Getting open and making the catch are 2 different skills. Getting open would warrant more chances. In other words, if you get open a lot, you get a lot of throws, but a guy who struggles to get open but does a great job of making the catch when he does wouldn't really deserve more throws.
Personally, I think Wright is going to be a role player who will continue to see the ball often in some games and rarely in others, based upon how we are being defended. He seems to be a guy who won't screw up if the coverage gives him the opportunity but is not extremely difficult to cover when the coverage favors his route.

I think Wrights lack of receptions have been more that they are managing his snaps. Part because they take him out on a lot of running downs and downs where they want an extra blocker. Part because he is still learning the play book. Wright does seem to be making the most of his snaps. He just isn't in the game a lot.

I don't watch the guy all the time, but I don't see him having a lot of problems getting open. Maybe on some plays, but he has been difficult for several LBs to cover.

ivanvamp · Oct 28, 2014

Oswlek said:
And I'd be fascinated by a compelling case for creationism. But I don't doing either are forthcoming.

Heh.

JMC00 · Oct 28, 2014

Rob0729 said:
I don't watch the guy all the time, but I don't see him having a lot of problems getting open. Maybe on some plays, but he has been difficult for several LBs to cover.

Ya i'd imagine if you looked at all his snaps that he has gotten open more than he has not. It's just that Brady doesn't get to him in his progression because he's already thrown it to someone.

Bet if McDaniels could have a do over on the 4 plays on the goal-line that got stuffed one of them would would have been Wright on that drag route

Rob0729 · Oct 28, 2014

JMC00 said:
Ya i'd imagine if you looked at all his snaps that he has gotten open more than he has not. It's just that Brady doesn't get to him in his progression because he's already thrown it to someone.

Bet if McDaniels could have a do over on the 4 plays on the goal-line that got stuffed one of them would would have been Wright on that drag route

He did catch 7 balls in 21 snaps on Sunday. That is pretty damn good for the number 4-5 option on this offense. So I agree that getting open is not his issue.

JMC00 · Oct 28, 2014

Rob0729 said:
He did catch 7 balls in 21 snaps on Sunday. That is pretty damn good for the number 4-5 option on this offense. So I agree that getting open is not his issue.

Also while Wright has seemingly progressed he still doesn't have the offense completely down. Go look at the LaFell TD, Brady had to tell him to go in motion. Which I know some people will try to frame that as bad, I say it is completely the opposite. The guy is still trying to master the offense and has still been pretty good when he's seen snaps.

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

KontradictioN said:
It's not a problem if the team around him is playing well. The following are the personnel issues in Tampa Bay...

1. QB
2. RB
3. OL
4. TE
5. DE
6. CB
7. Coach

Now, given said issues at personnel, how much do you expect a very good LG to improve the situation? It seems a lot. My question is why? Surely you must know better. Or maybe you just haven't seen too many Bucs games this season...

EXACTLY! A very good LG can't!!

THAT is PRECISELY why no LG should take up $10 million of cap space.

No LG is worth 8% of a team's cap space.

What is so hard for you to understand about that???

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

borg said:
-Every game provides evidence about this team ...not just wins.
-The LOS for NE is an issue whether you choose to open your eyes or not.
-Teams that succeed in the playoffs own the LOS
-NE lost the LOS battle vs Denver in AFC Championship game last year
Big test Sunday......wish the trade deadline was next Tuesday

Mankins played in the AFCCG last year, no?

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
Offensive lineman do not 'cover for' the players next to them at the expense of not blocking their own man. That just makes no sense. We are going to argue that one OL can't block his own man because he is worried that the guy next him might miss his block so he misses his own on purpose just in case? Thats just not the way football works.
A bad player next to you can make you not look as good as your good block is wasted by the guy who missed his, but no OL has ever failed to block his own man so he can go help in case the guy next to him misses.
So the point you are disputing is pointless because it is fabricated by the poster.

Exactly.

I was looking for his explanation.

Oswlek · Oct 28, 2014

shmessy said:
A very good LG can't!!!!!!!

THAT is PRECISELY why no LG should take up $10 million of cap space.

No LG is worth 8% of a team's cap space.

What is so hard for you to understand about that???

Even more so when the player in question isn't very good and hasn't been for a few years.

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

BobDigital said:
Well here are the facts as I see them. Also until we use the money I am not going to factor tat in and go based on player.

#1 Mankins would not have won us any of the games this year we lost. Still be 6-2.
#2 The Run offense has clearly suffered. This was banged home last game when the Patriots could not punch it in. Between the 20s they are probably fine tough.
#3 The Pass blocking the last few weeks has been just as good if not better.
#4 Tm Wright is a looking like a good addition as a 3rd/4th option.

So you lost something in the short yardage game but gained as far as WR threats and a redzone option. Also your pass blocking has come around and is arguably better.

Overall I think you need to consider it as draw or a win. I think though for it to be a clear win you need to use him. 17 receptions on 18 targets warrants more chances.

Great analysis, other than the fact that you didn't mention that #22 was IR'ed before this last game.
That MAY have explained some of the problems in the run game.

BingoBrown · Oct 28, 2014

I say great trade before and after.The only bad thing,our trade pipeline
to Tampa Bay is now officially destroyed.

"BB on line one Sir"

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

AndyJohnson said:
This is an interesting comment. Is success when thrown to an indication that you warrant more throws? Getting open and making the catch are 2 different skills. Getting open would warrant more chances. In other words, if you get open a lot, you get a lot of throws, but a guy who struggles to get open but does a great job of making the catch when he does wouldn't really deserve more throws.
Personally, I think Wright is going to be a role player who will continue to see the ball often in some games and rarely in others, based upon how we are being defended. He seems to be a guy who won't screw up if the coverage gives him the opportunity but is not extremely difficult to cover when the coverage favors his route.

In order to get open, one has to know the route tree system.

Better question is how many snaps has he been playing to get that many receptions.

He's a work in progress.

Kontradiction · Oct 28, 2014

shmessy said:
A very good LG can't!!!!!!!

THAT is PRECISELY why no LG should take up $10 million of cap space.

No LG is worth 8% of a team's cap space.

What is so hard for you to understand about that???

For an immobile pocket passer who is the GOAT when given time in the pocket? A franchise caliber guard is absolutely worth 8% of the team's cap space. That's why the team gave him the deal they did.

shmessy · Oct 28, 2014

KontradictioN said:
For an immobile pocket passer who is the GOAT when given time in the pocket? A franchise caliber guard is absolutely worth 8% of the team's cap space. That's why the team gave him the deal they did.

Through 8 games:

With Mankins 2013: 23 Sacks
Without Mankins 2014: 13 sacks

By your definition, Mankins was money poorly spent.

Kontradiction · Oct 28, 2014

shmessy said:
Through 8 games:

With Mankins 2013: 23 Sacks
Without Mankins 2014: 13 sacks

By your definition, Mankins was money poorly spent.

Maybe if you're trying to warp the definition to fit a narrative, which I'm assuming is the case. But you're conveniently forgetting about that whole "TEAM!!!" aspect that you spent the first two weeks of the season pounding the table for. Without even trying too hard, one only needs to look at the difference between the receiving corps (WR's and TE's) from 2013 to 2014 to see but one reason for the difference between the two sack totals. Shall I go on? Or do you have the general idea?

Ivan · Oct 28, 2014

I'm with Digital Bob on this, the jury is out and will stay that way for a while. The factors that will determine whether it was a good move or not are:

1) Impact on this season. The OL was shaky early but stabilized as of late, I will wait and see how they finish up this season but even though Mankins would be an upgrade he would not have made that much difference for them so far this season.

2) Tim Wright. If he continues to develop the way he appears to be then it's a big plus for them. I think they really want to run the two TE/fast break offense and he looks like he can really help them do that. Last Sunday was the the first time since 2012 where i have seen therm run that offense at that pace and that successfully, it was great to see.

3) What they get out of the 4th rounder. This one will be a couple of years in the making unless they ship it out for immediate help.

4) How they use the cap space. If it keeps Revis or McCourty around then it is part of that equation imo.

If it were just Wright for Mankins then it would have to be seen as a loss, even though Wright appears to be a good player he simply is not on Mankins level, or anywhere near it for that matter, however there is much more left to be determined and how that shakes out will eventually answer this question. Ultimately i think it will be a good trade for them, but they have to finish the moves to make it come out that way.

oldrover · Oct 28, 2014

It's too early to say at this point. But you gotta like the trend line. I'm hoping for Gronkandez 2.0, I guess, and it seemed like we caught a glimpse of that Sunday.

The Trade - 8 Games Later

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