Teddy Bridgewater's falling stock.

KontradictioN said:

I was too. Pre-draft, Rodgers supposedly needed work on his touch on the long ball and was leaving his receivers hanging out to dry all too often, had bad foot work, and his pocket presence needed work. Like I said, everyone has holes in their game and Rodgers was no exception.

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Rodgers biggest problem, in terms of the draft, was probably that he was a Tedford guy.

upstater1 said:

I remember watching the Senior Bowl like it was yesterday. I remember the announcers raving like they never had before. The guy throwing the ball that day had a rifle arm and more talent than they'd seen in eons. He could have been a big bust like Jeff George (they were similar players) but what I am telling you is that these two players in particular had all the confidence in the world behind them. They were IT players. Just like Jeff George. This doesn't mean they were going to make it in the pros. After all, George didn't. But it does mean they had a degree of confidence that Mark Sanchez never had. And the reason Favre likely went in the second round is precisely because he played for So. Miss.

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OK, the Senior Bowl announcers hyperbole showed confidence, great.
Favre was horrendously undisciplined and the team that drafted him traded him away a year later. If they had 100% confidence he was great they would not have done that.
Favre also came with attitude concerns.
Its easy to say no one had confidence in Sanchez because of how it turned out, but if the Jets hadn't drafted him he still would have gone higher than Rodgers or Favre.
You can't rewrite history based on what came after it.

AndyJohnson said:

OK, the Senior Bowl announcers hyperbole showed confidence, great.
Favre was horrendously undisciplined and the team that drafted him traded him away a year later. If they had 100% confidence he was great they would not have done that.
Favre also came with attitude concerns.
Its easy to say no one had confidence in Sanchez because of how it turned out, but if the Jets hadn't drafted him he still would have gone higher than Rodgers or Favre.
You can't rewrite history based on what came after it.

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You're dismissing what was really going on.

Sanchez did not have hype. Some of these guys go up in a week draft, and there's no telling where he'd go if the Jets HADN'T taken him. You act like many didn't predict this for Sanchez. Many did.

Favre was horrendously undisciplined his entire Hall of Fame career.

And you repeated the same canard that you started with, that this is a rewrite of history. It's not. I've been watching the draft since the 1980s. These are the kinds of assessments that are made each and every year. Like the fact that everyone knew Dan Marino was a stud, and yet somehow he went at the end of the first round. These things happen because teams overthink things and ignore the obvious.

I made these calls, my friends did, and I know a lot of scouts did at the time. I mean heck, Rodgers falling was a shock to everyone in football. It was a big story. You act like this is hindsight.

Here you go: http://walterfootball.com/draft2005.php

Here's a mock by an amateur that calls Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the draft. Rodgers was talked about as the best player overall for weeks leading up to the draft.

AndyJohnson said:

Perception does not equal reality. He was drafted 24th (or somewhere around there).
If he was a 100% certainty he would not have fallen. However, no one is a 100% certainty as proven by the numerous QBs taken very high who were not worth it.
Russell, Smith,Sanchez, Couch, Carr to name a few all were considered more of a certainty than Rodgers. You can argue that but the fact is someone would have drafted him before he fell to GB if that were the case.

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Your method for making such an assessment has huge holes in it. If you're drafted higher, people have more confidence in you? That's what you're saying? Nothing about the strength of the draft? Nothing about the idiocy of the front office? Come on!

AndyJohnson said:

Rodgers plumetted to 24(?) or somewhere around there and Alex Smith went #1. If there was certainty about Rodgers then he would have gone much earlier.
Again, just because it turned out that way doesn't mean the team that picked a guy at 24 was 100% certain he would succeed and the team that picked a guy at 5 and traded up to do so was hoping.
We can make the same argument with many QBs who made it or did not. The end result just isn't evidence of the certainty of the pick.

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I think teams were afraid of the anonymous rumors about a potential First Round QB. Rumors circulated that he was a dope and Doper. That is why Dan Marino fell almost out of the First Round. Dan was certainly no genius, but not a Doper. That was the reason that Ryan Mallett fell into the top of the third.

I really believe those anonymous rumors, denied by Arkansas players and coaches, have been more than proven erroneous in his this three faultless years and numerous awards from the Pats coaches.

So BB has a QB with First Round athletic talent that he has groomed for three seasons. What a delicious problem to have, the GOAT and a groomed backup/replacement.

Bridgewater does not seem to be a cold climate / inclement weather type of QB

AzPatsFan said:

I think teams were afraid of the anonymous rumors about a potential First Round QB. Rumors circulated that he was a dope and Doper. That is why Dan Marino fell almost out of the First Round. Dan was certainly no genius, but not a Doper. That was the reason that Ryan Mallett fell into the top of the third.

I really believe those anonymous rumors, denied by Arkansas players and coaches, have been more than proven erroneous in his this three faultless years and numerous awards from the Pats coaches.

So BB has a QB with First Round athletic talent that he has groomed for three seasons. What a delicious problem to have, the GOAT and a groomed backup/replacement.

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I'm not sure where you think they were proven false:

Former Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett has reportedly admitted his past drug use, an issue which has followed him like a dark cloud before he declared for the NFL draft.

Mallett refused to answer questions about his possible drug use at the NFL combine in February, but according to Pro Football Weekly, the 22-year-old has told numerous teams he was in fact a user.

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Ryan Mallett's drug admission shocker - Examiner.com

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett — One GM said Mallett was the first quarterback ever to admit his drug usage to him in interviews, and his willingness to be honest about his past and acknowledge issues is viewed as a positive. Concerns about his history of use could impact his draft position, though. Although Mallett did not produce an official positive test at Arkansas, he has been arrested for public intoxication and carries a reputation as a "big party guy," per sources who have interviewed him. How much teams believe he has matured will weigh into his draft status. "I would not take him at any point," one executive not in need of a quarterback said. He still figures to be drafted in the second round.

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ProFootballWeekly.com - Character assessments shape NFL success

Deus Irae said:

Rodgers biggest problem, in terms of the draft, was probably that he was a Tedford guy.

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Good call and correct. I was more or less speaking in terms of his overall skill set coming out of college and the analysis of it.

PatsWickedPissah said:

It looks like #29 is the wrong spot to draft for positions we need. Conclusion, trade down with 29 to get more middle picks. I'd even consider using a 2015 3rd or 4th along with a 2014 6th to get an early 5th or late 4th.

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With the team already having 5 picks in the top 4 rounds (two in the 4th), they could have something like the following, should they trade down:

2nd round--2
3rd round--2
4th round--2

That may be a best case scenario, but the thought of having 2 second rounds, 1 third, and 2 fourth rounders would be automatic at worst. It may behoove them to load up with these mid round picks, just as we've seen in the past.

upstater1 said:

Your method for making such an assessment has huge holes in it. If you're drafted higher, people have more confidence in you? That's what you're saying? Nothing about the strength of the draft? Nothing about the idiocy of the front office? Come on!

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Holes compared to what? The premise is that the Packers were 100% certain that Rodgers was going to be great. If that were an accurate statement, it is very likely that it would have been shared by other teams. Those teams would not have passed on him. No QB that was 100% certain to be a franchise QB would ever fall past so many teams.
The alternative is to believe, just because a poster said it, that the Packers just simply were smarter than everyone else, and knew with 100% certainty that Rodgers was a future HOFer, and no one else did (or at least no one before 24) plus they also weren't willing to trade up to get him.
Disputing my method has a lot more holes in it than the method itself does.

upstater1 said:

You're dismissing what was really going on.

Sanchez did not have hype. Some of these guys go up in a week draft, and there's no telling where he'd go if the Jets HADN'T taken him. You act like many didn't predict this for Sanchez. Many did.

Favre was horrendously undisciplined his entire Hall of Fame career.

And you repeated the same canard that you started with, that this is a rewrite of history. It's not. I've been watching the draft since the 1980s. These are the kinds of assessments that are made each and every year. Like the fact that everyone knew Dan Marino was a stud, and yet somehow he went at the end of the first round. These things happen because teams overthink things and ignore the obvious.

I made these calls, my friends did, and I know a lot of scouts did at the time. I mean heck, Rodgers falling was a shock to everyone in football. It was a big story. You act like this is hindsight.

Here you go: http://walterfootball.com/draft2005.php

Here's a mock by an amateur that calls Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the draft. Rodgers was talked about as the best player overall for weeks leading up to the draft.

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No I am talking about what really happened. You are substituting a mock draft as the proof of how a player was rated rather than the actual picks by the actual teams making them.
There is a big difference between whether peoples predictions turn out to be correct (that is all mocks and predraft rankings are, someone trying to guess what teams will do. When the teams do something else, its not proof the guy is better than he was drafted, but proof the guy guessing at his draft slot was wrong) and stating that a team was 100% certain the guy they picked at 24 is a future HOFer.

Of course a lot of people were high on Rodgers. They were high on Leaf, Sanchez, Couch, Russell, etc, etc too. None were 100% certain. The Packers were lucky that it worked out, but to say they had more confidence in that pick that other teams had in top 5 picks is silly.

upstater1 said:

You're dismissing what was really going on.

Sanchez did not have hype. Some of these guys go up in a week draft, and there's no telling where he'd go if the Jets HADN'T taken him. You act like many didn't predict this for Sanchez. Many did.

Favre was horrendously undisciplined his entire Hall of Fame career.

And you repeated the same canard that you started with, that this is a rewrite of history. It's not. I've been watching the draft since the 1980s. These are the kinds of assessments that are made each and every year. Like the fact that everyone knew Dan Marino was a stud, and yet somehow he went at the end of the first round. These things happen because teams overthink things and ignore the obvious.

I made these calls, my friends did, and I know a lot of scouts did at the time. I mean heck, Rodgers falling was a shock to everyone in football. It was a big story. You act like this is hindsight.

Here you go: http://walterfootball.com/draft2005.php

Here's a mock by an amateur that calls Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the draft. Rodgers was talked about as the best player overall for weeks leading up to the draft.

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Another point here. Guys dont 'move up' the week of the draft. Teams don't change their evaluations in the last week. What happens is the people who are predicting the draft get more information about how teams rate the players.
You are looking at it backwards. Mel Kiper isn't determining a players value, he is guessing at where teams rate him. A guy who gets drafted lower than Kiper has him isn't a steal, he is a case of Kiper guessing too high at how teams feel about him.

AndyJohnson said:

Another point here. Guys dont 'move up' the week of the draft. Teams don't change their evaluations in the last week. What happens is the people who are predicting the draft get more information about how teams rate the players.
You are looking at it backwards. Mel Kiper isn't determining a players value, he is guessing at where teams rate him. A guy who gets drafted lower than Kiper has him isn't a steal, he is a case of Kiper guessing too high at how teams feel about him.

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I agree. It is like those draft "experts" talking about someone is the steal of draft, when they overrated someone in the first place. NFL draft is a 32 team market, it is fairly efficient. It collectively reflected the player's true draft stock, whether teams right or wrong is a different story.

AndyJohnson said:

Another point here. Guys dont 'move up' the week of the draft. Teams don't change their evaluations in the last week. What happens is the people who are predicting the draft get more information about how teams rate the players.

You are looking at it backwards. Mel Kiper isn't determining a players value, he is guessing at where teams rate him. A guy who gets drafted lower than Kiper has him isn't a steal, he is a case of Kiper guessing too high at how teams feel about him.

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Teams get spooked, players drop, it happens all the time.

AndyJohnson said:

No I am talking about what really happened. You are substituting a mock draft as the proof of how a player was rated rather than the actual picks by the actual teams making them.
There is a big difference between whether peoples predictions turn out to be correct (that is all mocks and predraft rankings are, someone trying to guess what teams will do. When the teams do something else, its not proof the guy is better than he was drafted, but proof the guy guessing at his draft slot was wrong) and stating that a team was 100% certain the guy they picked at 24 is a future HOFer.

Of course a lot of people were high on Rodgers. They were high on Leaf, Sanchez, Couch, Russell, etc, etc too. None were 100% certain. The Packers were lucky that it worked out, but to say they had more confidence in that pick that other teams had in top 5 picks is silly.

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Huge number of strawmen in your post. I never said a team was 100% certain they picked a HOF. Never said that. Where did I say that?

I said they were more confident in Rodgers than the Jets were in Sanchez. BIG DIFFERENCE than saying Rodgers was a HOFer.

You seem to think the depth of every draft is the same. It's silly.

We've had Belichick in the past say some mid first round guys were 3rd rounders at best in prior years.

Look at who was picked in the first 20 of Sanchez's draft: Tyson Jackson and Aaron Curry were picked right before Sanchez. Immortals such as Aaron Maybin went right after him. 13 of the 20 guys aren't on the teams that picked them 4 short years. The next QB taken in the 1st round was Josh Freeman 12 picks later. I guess the Jets should have deferred from taking Sanchez and just grabbed BJ Raji instead.

QFFL said:

I agree. It is like those draft "experts" talking about someone is the steal of draft, when they overrated someone in the first place. NFL draft is a 32 team market, it is fairly efficient. It collectively reflected the player's true draft stock, whether teams right or wrong is a different story.

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Reaches (risers) and steals (sliders) happen pretty much every year. We'll likely be seeing both in a couple of weeks.

Wildo7 said:

There's this implicit assumption that there's going to be a franchise QB waiting to be drafted by the Pats at the exact moment they happen to know Brady is about to be done. This seems very unrealistic to me and it also ignores the reality that there are years, sometimes multiple in a row where no franchise QB comes out of the NFL draft let alone at a spot where the Pats will be able to pounce. If Bridgewater is there imo the Pats should take him if they are high on him (I certainly am).

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Said it before and repeating here. I've seen him in games and he possesses the game that fits the Pats offense. You don't wait until your current QB deflates, you prepare for it. The Pats may not have a chance for such a highly rated QB and TB's in the 6th round don't come around twice. I've been sold on him since I saw him come off the bench from injury and bring his team back for the win. The games he lost, he had given his team the lead with one possession left and the defense didn't hold, similar to the Pats in the last two SBs. Draft him if at all possible.

AndyJohnson said:

Another point here. Guys dont 'move up' the week of the draft. Teams don't change their evaluations in the last week. What happens is the people who are predicting the draft get more information about how teams rate the players.
You are looking at it backwards. Mel Kiper isn't determining a players value, he is guessing at where teams rate him. A guy who gets drafted lower than Kiper has him isn't a steal, he is a case of Kiper guessing too high at how teams feel about him.

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I think the media - exemplified by Kiper - is showing their ridiculous arrogance. Mel Kiper releases a new mock draft every week and, since they want to give people a reason to watch, it changes significantly from one week to the next. So they jump on certain players as "moving up" or "moving down" based on their own ridiculously-inconsistent opinions and not based on anything that actual teams are doing.

That aside, all I know is this: I really do not want the Patriots to draft JaMarcus Bridgewater.

JPsPats said:

Id take teddy at 29. Rookie contracts are cheap enough to carry him.

There's only 1 catch, BB has to 100% believe he his Brady's successor or else it's a wasted pick.

gb 100% believed Rodgers would be favres successor, or they wouldn't of taken him.

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upstater1 said:

Huge number of strawmen in your post. I never said a team was 100% certain they picked a HOF. Never said that. Where did I say that?

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See post quoted above which was the one I was responding to when you jumped in. Not a strawman at all.

I said they were more confident in Rodgers than the Jets were in Sanchez. BIG DIFFERENCE than saying Rodgers was a HOFer.

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There is no evidence to support this claim,

You seem to think the depth of every draft is the same. It's silly.

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How can you argue Rodgers fell to 24 because of depth in the draft when he was the 2nd QB taken.
We aren't talking about 9th vs 4th, he almost fell out of the first round.

We've had Belichick in the past say some mid first round guys were 3rd rounders at best in prior years.

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No we haven't, he has not said that.

Look at who was picked in the first 20 of Sanchez's draft: Tyson Jackson and Aaron Curry were picked right before Sanchez. Immortals such as Aaron Maybin went right after him. 13 of the 20 guys aren't on the teams that picked them 4 short years. The next QB taken in the 1st round was Josh Freeman 12 picks later. I guess the Jets should have deferred from taking Sanchez and just grabbed BJ Raji instead.

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You can do the same thing with Rodgers draft. You are just throwing things out there without relating them to anything. How players turn out has nothing to do with how confident the team was when they drafted them.

upstater1 said:

Teams get spooked, players drop, it happens all the time.

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How does a player 'drop'? What does he drop from? There is only one draft. 'Dropping' only means those predicting where he would be drafted were wrong.