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State of the AFC – did the Broncos actually improve through free agency?


However that Saints game was the game he was again injured. His play suffered due to the injury which is the point I would assume anyone detracting from his play last year would be making.
If Talib suddenly becomes the Alex Mack (just read in his career he has never missed a single one of 5150 snaps) or corners, then he is definitely an upgrade for them. But if he is out, and/or playing injured then its much more debatable.
That was the poison pill in keeping him. He was great when he was 100% but he wasn't 100% often.

I completely agree that the injury issue is a major red flag. But that's not what some people here are arguing. B6 seems to be arguing that even when healthy he's overrated and not significantly better than DRC, which I strongly disagree with.
 
... I agree re: Welker, although I strongly disagree about Talib vs. DRC. If it's a lateral move, it's entirely because of the injury risk. In terms of talent, Talib is a much better corner than DRC is. His baseline level of healthy play is significantly beyond DRC's. If the exchange ends up hurting them, it will be because when the competition tightens in January, the odds of Talib being on the field and producing like a #1 are not great.

I'm pretty much with you on Moreno and DRC, but I wanted to point out two other areas:

Welker was on pace for another 100 catch season, was still getting open faster than anyone in the NFL, and had become Manning's binky, until Manning led him into his first concussion. This notion that he was showing real signs of decline is, at least mostly, just the sour grapes talking.

I agree re: the interior of the OL, though. I'm surprised that they haven't made any move to address it so far, and I'm willing to bet that they'll address it early in the draft. I can't imagine that they'll go into the season why the unit looking anything like it does now, because that would be pretty ugly.

Clady is back, and they signed Montgomery and kept Winston. Koppen is a non-factor, because of the timing of his injury last year. Vallos is a career backup. People are overblowing the Broncos OL woes, IMO.
 
My only comment on state of DEN is that I think some here are kidding themselves if they honestly expect DEN to take many (if any) steps backwards.

I keep hearing about the horrid state of their OL and about all of these so-called losses, and I'm just not seeing it. I think many are forgetting that franchise LT Ryan Clady will be coming back, and that Peyton Manning's quick release time + scheme will continue to benefit him in covering up any potential weaknesses.

I think DEN continues to be a top notch threat to win the AFC, and Manning will pose a challenge (or vice versa) to us--as usual.

EDIT: Sorry, Deus. You kind of touched on the same topic.
 
As far as any other thoughts on the state of the AFC:

--I think we see more competition in the AFCE, or at least something similar to last season where 3/4 teams had records of .500 or better. Many seem to take the other 3 teams for granted when we play them, but I certainly do not

--I think that BAL made some nice improvements and addressed their weaknesses nicely. I wouldn't look past them, especially with a halfway decent draft. They really felt the loss of Boldin last year on offense, so adding Steve Smith and Owen Daniels (along with a probable draft pick) should help to offset that loss in my opinion. Their defense actually improved on the SB winning side of the ball
 
I completely agree that the injury issue is a major red flag. But that's not what some people here are arguing. B6 seems to be arguing that even when healthy he's overrated and not significantly better than DRC, which I strongly disagree with.
I would only add that Talib often is playing at less than 100%, and when he is hobbled that gap is also much smaller.
 
It is a STUPID argument - any year any team can have a year like the Pats and lose MANY key players to injury. So-called "experts" are the WORST source to turn to - way too many are way too wrong year after year. How many times has a team looked great in October or November only to fade away by December - despite all their great free agency pickups. It happens year after year, but in the end it comes down to coaches, QB's, and health. Denver DID NOT improve in 2 of the 3 categories and health is a variable for EVERY team.
 
I completely agree that the injury issue is a major red flag. But that's not what some people here are arguing. B6 seems to be arguing that even when healthy he's overrated and not significantly better than DRC, which I strongly disagree with.

It is less that I think Talib is overrated and more that I think you are underrating Rodgers-Cromartie. He is a good CB, and had a damn fine season in 2013.

Over the course of their careers DRC has been a better CB than Talib and that is not even debatable in my opinion. His first 3 seasons in the NFL he had 61 pass defends, 13 interceptions,and he returned 4 interceptions for a touchdown To put that in perspective Talib has 70 pass defends in his 7 year career.

As far as Talib goes I am not arguing that he played very well in 2013, for the first 5 ½ weeks of the season he played like a top 3 CB. That said 5 ½ games does not make you a top 10 CB and if you look back prior to the season the general concensious was that Talib was not even a top 15 CB among many fans and posters in here.

I would be curious why you feel Talib is better than DRC. The numbers do not reflect it, and if you watch their tape I do not see it. It cannot be talent because DRC is arguably the most physically gifted CB in the NFL. The guy is an absolute freak in terms of athletic ability, he is 6’2” 190lbs. runs a 4.29 forty and can jump out of the stadium.
 
It is less that I think Talib is overrated and more that I think you are underrating Rodgers-Cromartie. He is a good CB, and had a damn fine season in 2013.

Over the course of their careers DRC has been a better CB than Talib and that is not even debatable in my opinion. His first 3 seasons in the NFL he had 61 pass defends, 13 interceptions,and he returned 4 interceptions for a touchdown To put that in perspective Talib has 70 pass defends in his 7 year career.

As far as Talib goes I am not arguing that he played very well in 2013, for the first 5 ½ weeks of the season he played like a top 3 CB. That said 5 ½ games does not make you a top 10 CB and if you look back prior to the season the general concensious was that Talib was not even a top 15 CB among many fans and posters in here.

I would be curious why you feel Talib is better than DRC. The numbers do not reflect it, and if you watch their tape I do not see it. It cannot be talent because DRC is arguably the most physically gifted CB in the NFL. The guy is an absolute freak in terms of athletic ability, he is 6’2” 190lbs. runs a 4.29 forty and can jump out of the stadium.

I don't have a horse in this race, B6. Sometimes both sides have a reasonable enough argument to warrant a fine back and forth. It's possible this is one of those cases, depending upon personal preference and opinion.

To be completely honest, I think both are somewhat overrated, but I certainly agree with you that DRC has been more than adequate in defending the pass and making big plays. I think the argument is that Talib is just more physical, and tackles better.

I would agree with you that the gap between these 2 may be closer than some realize, and that is exaggerated a bit with the injury concern and inconsistent play from Aqib Talib. The truth may be that Talib is definitely better when everything lines up well for him, but I think that doesn't happen often enough to say that it's quite as clear cut as some may think.

DRC's main problem is that he seems to shy away from contact at times, and that he isn't a physical enough tackler. If he were, he may be considered one of the best CBs (top 5-6-7) in the game due to his excellent pass defending skills.
 
It is less that I think Talib is overrated and more that I think you are underrating Rodgers-Cromartie. He is a good CB, and had a damn fine season in 2013.

Over the course of their careers DRC has been a better CB than Talib and that is not even debatable in my opinion. His first 3 seasons in the NFL he had 61 pass defends, 13 interceptions,and he returned 4 interceptions for a touchdown To put that in perspective Talib has 70 pass defends in his 7 year career.

As far as Talib goes I am not arguing that he played very well in 2013, for the first 5 ½ weeks of the season he played like a top 3 CB. That said 5 ½ games does not make you a top 10 CB and if you look back prior to the season the general concensious was that Talib was not even a top 15 CB among many fans and posters in here.

I would be curious why you feel Talib is better than DRC. The numbers do not reflect it, and if you watch their tape I do not see it. It cannot be talent because DRC is arguably the most physically gifted CB in the NFL. The guy is an absolute freak in terms of athletic ability, he is 6’2” 190lbs. runs a 4.29 forty and can jump out of the stadium.

What numbers don't reflect that? Cornerbacks are notoriously the hardest position in the NFL to evaluate based on stats. Part of getting a pass defensed is that the opposing QB must have thrown at you. If you've really locked down the receiver, typically the QB won't even throw to him, and thus the statistics will show that you did exactly as much as someone sitting on the bench did. In 2010, Darrelle Revis had passes defensed and 0 INTs. Did that make him a bad CB? Of course not, he was the consensus best CB in the NFL at the time, even coming out of that season, and nobody thought even one iota less of him because he didn't defend enough passes.

Talib has played in 77 games, in which he's defended 70 passes (0.91 per game) and intercepted 23 balls (.30 per game). DRC has played in 92 games, in which he's defended 98 passes (1.07 per game) and intercepted 19 balls (0.21 per game). Their stat lines are very close, if you choose to evaluate them, with DRC's edge in PDs countered by Talib's significantly greater edge in forcing turnovers.

This is before accounting for several factors, starting with the fact that injuries--and the fact that Talib has played a huge part of his career with them--make this comparison closer than it otherwise would be. My initial point was and always has been that the injuries close the gap quite a bit, and your counter was that even when healthy, DRC is better than Talib. Yet if you choose to evaluate them by passes defensed and interceptions, then it's at best a wash for DRC even before you account for Talib's injuries.

I still haven't addressed your question, though, which is how do I evaluate them. The answer is basically the eye test. I watch them play, since, again, CB is a position where stats aren't of much use. I couldn't care less how big and fast DRC is, because watching him play makes it clear that he's a soft player. He's talented and athletic, and he leverages the gifts that he has to be a good, above average starting NFL CB. But he's not going to disrupt anyone's gameplan week in and week out. If he's on your #1 receiver, then he's not going to force you to abandon your gameplan- your top receiver is going to get his stats. Just look at last year:

Week 1, Torrey Smith got 92 yards. Week 2, Victor Cruz had 118 yards and Nicks had 83. Week 3, Denarius Moore had 124 yards and a TD. Week 5, Dez Bryant had 141 yards and 2 TDs (and Terrance Williams had 151 yards and a TD). Week 6, Blackmon had 190 yards. Week 12, Edelman had 112 yards and 2 TDs. The effect became less pronounced as the season went on and the Broncos played a bunch of teams that couldn't pass, but more often than not, the top receiver got his stats on the opposing offense. That falls in large part on the CB1's shoulders.

So yeah, DRC is good. When Talib left, I advocated for signing him, because even though he's soft, doesn't tackle, and can't play press coverage to save his life, he's still a very talented, extremely athletic football player. And when you account for Talib's injury risks, which discount his value by a large amount, you're left with a similar tier of corner. Talib is much better when healthy, but he's not healthy all that often. When he is healthy, though, he's better for a few reasons, starting with the fact that he's physical, he tackles, and he can jam the WR1 at the LOS and disrupt the timing of the offense. He also plays the ball very well, and makes sure that when QBs do throw to him, they're punished for doing so.

And again, I'm pretty much positive that there isn't a single poster on this forum, yourself included, who would have claimed two months ago that DRC is as good as a healthy Talib. Most would argue that it wasn't even all that close.
 
What numbers don't reflect that? Cornerbacks are notoriously the hardest position in the NFL to evaluate based on stats. Part of getting a pass defensed is that the opposing QB must have thrown at you. If you've really locked down the receiver, typically the QB won't even throw to him, and thus the statistics will show that you did exactly as much as someone sitting on the bench did. In 2010, Darrelle Revis had passes defensed and 0 INTs. Did that make him a bad CB? Of course not, he was the consensus best CB in the NFL at the time, even coming out of that season, and nobody thought even one iota less of him because he didn't defend enough passes.



Talib has played in 77 games, in which he's defended 70 passes (0.91 per game) and intercepted 23 balls (.30 per game). DRC has played in 92 games, in which he's defended 98 passes (1.07 per game) and intercepted 19 balls (0.21 per game). Their stat lines are very close, if you choose to evaluate them, with DRC's edge in PDs countered by Talib's significantly greater edge in forcing turnovers.



This is before accounting for several factors, starting with the fact that injuries--and the fact that Talib has played a huge part of his career with them--make this comparison closer than it otherwise would be. My initial point was and always has been that the injuries close the gap quite a bit, and your counter was that even when healthy, DRC is better than Talib. Yet if you choose to evaluate them by passes defensed and interceptions, then it's at best a wash for DRC even before you account for Talib's injuries.



I still haven't addressed your question, though, which is how do I evaluate them. The answer is basically the eye test. I watch them play, since, again, CB is a position where stats aren't of much use. I couldn't care less how big and fast DRC is, because watching him play makes it clear that he's a soft player. He's talented and athletic, and he leverages the gifts that he has to be a good, above average starting NFL CB. But he's not going to disrupt anyone's gameplan week in and week out. If he's on your #1 receiver, then he's not going to force you to abandon your gameplan- your top receiver is going to get his stats. Just look at last year:



Week 1, Torrey Smith got 92 yards. Week 2, Victor Cruz had 118 yards and Nicks had 83. Week 3, Denarius Moore had 124 yards and a TD. Week 5, Dez Bryant had 141 yards and 2 TDs (and Terrance Williams had 151 yards and a TD). Week 6, Blackmon had 190 yards. Week 12, Edelman had 112 yards and 2 TDs. The effect became less pronounced as the season went on and the Broncos played a bunch of teams that couldn't pass, but more often than not, the top receiver got his stats on the opposing offense. That falls in large part on the CB1's shoulders.



So yeah, DRC is good. When Talib left, I advocated for signing him, because even though he's soft, doesn't tackle, and can't play press coverage to save his life, he's still a very talented, extremely athletic football player. And when you account for Talib's injury risks, which discount his value by a large amount, you're left with a similar tier of corner. Talib is much better when healthy, but he's not healthy all that often. When he is healthy, though, he's better for a few reasons, starting with the fact that he's physical, he tackles, and he can jam the WR1 at the LOS and disrupt the timing of the offense. He also plays the ball very well, and makes sure that when QBs do throw to him, they're punished for doing so.



And again, I'm pretty much positive that there isn't a single poster on this forum, yourself included, who would have claimed two months ago that DRC is as good as a healthy Talib. Most would argue that it wasn't even all that close.


The problem is you're assessing the situation based on Talib being at full health and performing at his highest level. That is like only considering the days it is sunny when assessing your life.

I'm not saying one player is better than the other what I am saying is there is not a significant gap. They are both players who can be top tier CBs but they both have shortcomings that have caused them to fall short of maintaining that performance over the course of their careers.
 
I think you can make an argument their starting line-up can be better but their depth sucks and in this NFL that's big trouble. Having Manning pretty much guarantees a good play-off position but what he can do with them when they get there after a long brutal season is seriously in doubt. They will be back, but i don't believe they can win a championship leaning solely on Manning, which is essentially what they are doing.
 
At this point of the season this kind of comparison is mostly nitpicking. In the end, both teams are going to be very good. Here's how I see it.

1. When both are healthy, Revis is only marginally better than Talib at his best. However when Talib has to play through some injuries the quality of his play DOES drop a bit. How much depends on who you talk to, but it is visible. Add that to the fact that Talib has missed a MINIMUM of 20% of his games in EVERY year he's played.

While I liked Talib and would have been OK with a 3 year deal for $9MM/ (not happy, but OK). I really think the Pats have improved their CB situation much more than the Broncos, at least for this coming season.

Dennard is a legitimate starting outside CB in this league. He plays much bigger than his size. Browner is also a legitimate starting outside CB, but I think he'll be used all over the field. Then for depth you have Ryan and Arrington, both guys who are better 4th and 5th CB's than most teams have. This is without question the best 5 man CB rotation the Pats have ever had. If we were honest, there have be a lot of past Pats teams where Ryan and Arrington would have started.

2. DE is another story. Von Miller truly is a force at DE. And while he is being overpaid, everyone here would have been in 7th heaven if DWare had signed with the Pats. Even if Ware has lost a bit off his fastball, he's still a great pick up. Derek Wolfe would be excellent as a 3rd man in that rotation, but who knows about his injury status. But as of this moment, you'd have to give the Bronco DL the edge.

3. On the other side of the ball, I see cracks in the armor, especially on the OL and RB. They had the best pass protecting OL last season and have lost a few players. I find it funny that some people here can't wait for Ridley to leave, while extolling Ball who had just one less fumble (3), even though he had 60 fewer attempts. So lets see. He's a good runner, can't pass block, fumbles slightly more than Ridley, and not a threat in the passing game. Ridley and Vareen are worlds ahead of Ball and Hillman.

4. Even though he just had the best year any QB has ever had, you can see the cracks starting to form in his game. Teams with good secondaries are going to start to give him more problems as his flaws become more apparent, and even though Sanders is a decent replacement for Decker, he's a different kind of receiver.

So I doubt very much is its any surprise to anyone here that in the single most important position on the field, the Pats will have the better player. How's that for a bold prediction. ;)

BOTTOM LINE - The 2 teams will play in the regular season, and that game, though exciting will be pretty meaningless in the great scheme of things. But should the 2 teams meet in the playoffs, it may be simplistic, but the team that's the healthiest is the team most likely to win.
 
1. When both are healthy, Revis is only marginally better than Talib at his best. However when Talib has to play through some injuries the quality of his play DOES drop a bit. How much depends on who you talk to, but it is visible. Add that to the fact that Talib has missed a MINIMUM of 20% of his games in EVERY year he's played.

I loved Talib during his stay here and badly wanted him to stay but, when healthy, Revis is at another level. Revis is the best CB of this generation and probably the best since Deion. I don't know what version of Revis takes the field this year but when healthy Revis is an upgrade over Talib.
 
I think defensively they're better. Talib and Ward are an upgrade from what they had last year in their secondary. Ware the question mark. If he and Von Miller are back to being beasts, that's a scary thing for opposing offenses.

Offensively, they got worse. Decker and Moreno I think are gonna be huge losses for them.
 
I know that Bleacher Report in general is a fan site but Matt Miller is one of the most legitimate writers on their staff and when ranking his best CB of 2013 he placed Talib at #29. This is his assessment of Talib. He rated DRC at #13, Revis was #2, and Sherman was #1.

Coverage 66/80
Former New England Patriots and new Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib (6’1”, 205 lbs, six seasons) had an inconsistent season in 2013. His long arms and physicality allowed him to be effective against bigger receivers such as Jimmy Graham when given help from the defense around him. However, Talib struggled later in the season against quicker receivers in space. His feet can be too heavy at times, and he loses some of his composure when asked to turn and sprint with receivers.

Run Defense 6/10
Effort is a concern with Talib when defending the run. Because of his stout build and aggressive nature in coverage, you would expect him to be stronger than he actually is against the blocks of receivers and tight ends.

Tackle 6/10
Talib isn’t a bad tackler. He uses his arms well and has the strength to knock receivers backward or to the ground. His technique can be sloppy, but his physical prowess compensates for those reckless plays more often than not.

Overall 78/100
Talib was a decent starter for the Patriots last season, but he couldn't offer what Darrelle Revis does to the defense. If he can stay healthy, he will be a valuable contributor for the Broncos, but he needs to face the right type of receivers to be consistently effective.

B/R NFL 1000: Top 100 Cornerbacks | Bleacher Report
 
Two major assumptions made by nearly every NFL fan about the AFC race between the Pats/Broncos:

1. Peyton Manning will continue to perform like a top 3 QB at age 38.

2. Tom Brady will continue to perform like a top 3 QB at age 37.

Now, I don't think either one will start to decline yet. But if either one does, that will greatly shift the contest between these two teams.
 
I think the Broncos OL is way worse now than it was before. I think their DL is very good - Ware, Miller, Knighton, Wolfe, Sly Williams and Malik Jackson - wow. I can see them drafting a linebacker quite high, Trevathan played out of his mind last year. I'm not sure he can repeat what he did and he needs some help next to him.
 
I think the Broncos OL is way worse now than it was before. I think their DL is very good - Ware, Miller, Knighton, Wolfe, Sly Williams and Malik Jackson - wow. I can see them drafting a linebacker quite high, Trevathan played out of his mind last year. I'm not sure he can repeat what he did and he needs some help next to him.

The OL lost one player (Beadles) of note, and gains back one of the very best LTs in the NFL (Clady). How does that make it "way worse"?
 
I agree re: 1, but re: 2, you just answered your own question. Peyton just had the best season of his career, and probably the best season that anyone's ever had in the NFL. It's hard to argue that he's currently in decline overall based on that performance, although it's fair to say that he has some limitations as a player that he didn't have in the past, and that a decline is likely. I think it's more accurate to say that that 2014 Manning WILL decline from 2013 Manning, if for no other reason than it's virtually impossible to replicate the kind of year he just had.

Peyton's arm strength has significantly declined over the last few years. At some point, it will significantly hinder his playing ability. Could be this year. Could be a year or two from now. Part of the reason he had a great year was that he had two big outside WRs who could fight for those floaters he throws. He lost one of those big receivers and replaced him with a smaller quicker receiver. Time will tell if that hurts him or not.

And if Manning hits a massive age wall all at once and nose dives in production, it wouldn't be precedence setting especially since it is partially injury related. Brett Favre went from a career year in 2009 to being an average QB at best in 2010. Kurt Warner went from league MVP in 2008 to average QB in 2009. It could happen to Manning especially since even in a career year, he definitely showed signs of age.

I agree re: Welker, although I strongly disagree about Talib vs. DRC. If it's a lateral move, it's entirely because of the injury risk. In terms of talent, Talib is a much better corner than DRC is. His baseline level of healthy play is significantly beyond DRC's. If the exchange ends up hurting them, it will be because when the competition tightens in January, the odds of Talib being on the field and producing like a #1 are not great.

Again, only if Talib plays like he did the first six games last year. The problem is for most of his career, Talib has been on par or worse than DRC was last year. He could end up playing like he did for the first six games last year all year in Denver or he can be what he was for the Pats in 2012 which is on par or worse than DRC was last year.

Re: Moreno and Ball, they were in a full-on platoon by the end of the season. The carries were evenly split, and Ball's last fumble came in their loss against the Pats on 11/24. Losing Moreno will hurt them to a degree, but more for his blocking nad receiving than his rushing ability.

Ball had one really good game down the stretch and was good in a few others and he was just mediocre in the playoffs.
 
I know that Bleacher Report in general is a fan site but Matt Miller is one of the most legitimate writers on their staff and when ranking his best CB of 2013 he placed Talib at #29. This is his assessment of Talib. He rated DRC at #13, Revis was #2, and Sherman was #1.

Coverage 66/80
Former New England Patriots and new Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib (6’1”, 205 lbs, six seasons) had an inconsistent season in 2013. His long arms and physicality allowed him to be effective against bigger receivers such as Jimmy Graham when given help from the defense around him. However, Talib struggled later in the season against quicker receivers in space. His feet can be too heavy at times, and he loses some of his composure when asked to turn and sprint with receivers.

Run Defense 6/10
Effort is a concern with Talib when defending the run. Because of his stout build and aggressive nature in coverage, you would expect him to be stronger than he actually is against the blocks of receivers and tight ends.

Tackle 6/10
Talib isn’t a bad tackler. He uses his arms well and has the strength to knock receivers backward or to the ground. His technique can be sloppy, but his physical prowess compensates for those reckless plays more often than not.

Overall 78/100
Talib was a decent starter for the Patriots last season, but he couldn't offer what Darrelle Revis does to the defense. If he can stay healthy, he will be a valuable contributor for the Broncos, but he needs to face the right type of receivers to be consistently effective.


B/R NFL 1000: Top 100 Cornerbacks | Bleacher Report


No offense to Miller, but there are some genuine headscratchers on that list.


For example:

  • Chris Houston, Dwight Bentley, Leonard Johnson, Morris Claiborne, Mike Jenkins, Kyle Wilson :eek: and Kareem Jackson ranked higher than Antonio Cromartie

  • Darrius Slay, Robert Alford, Zack Bowman, Robert McClain, Kyle Arrington, Champ Bailey, Bradley Fletcher and Coty Sensabaugh ranked higher than #70 Alfonzo Dennard :confused:

  • Jimmy Wilson ranked higher than Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond, Tarell Jones, Pacman Jones and Charles Tillman :idontgetit:

  • Jonathan Joseph ranked higher than Lardarius Webb and Sam Shields :wha:

  • Nickell Robey, Chris Crocker, Corey White, Rashean Mathis, Micah Hyde, Corey Graham, Captain Munnerlyn, Keenan Lewis and Brandon Boykin all ranked higher than Aqib Talib :confused2:


Legitimate writer or not, it's extremely difficult for me to use that opinion and listing as a credible point of reference.
 


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