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Of course, there is also the possibility that Cincy or NYJets (whomever gets the 6 seed) defeats the QB-less Texans. In this scenario it would be good to be #1.
Yes, of course you are right in your thought that there is another option, but most of us (correctly or not) are basing this on the #6 seed being too weak this yr, no matter who gets in.
I wouldn't put anything past the Texans defense and running game either, at home for a playoff game. They will come to play for sure, although I doubt they can go too far..I see no reason why we should assume the lowly 6 seed (NYJ, CIN, etc) is going to beat them at home.
You are right though, there certainly are a couple ways to look at it.
Having the 2 seed is my better choice, although you may be right in disagreeing.