NFL Wild Card: Jets at Colts

Ron Sellers said:

Wow, that is pretty sad. I know Indiana is basketball country, but come on. A Super Bowl loss, a few injuries this year, a few less wins than last year, and the fan base loses that much interest in their team?

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– Since the start of the 2008 season, the Colts are 9-0 at home against teams that enter the game with a winning record (over .500, does not include .500 teams). The combined winning percentage of those nine teams entering their game at Indy?

.736 (53-19).

– The Jets have scored 20 or more points in nine of their last 10 road games. The last time they did that was in 1999-2000.

– The Jets like their home cooking apparently: On the road in 2010, the Jets allowed an average of 24.6 points per game, their highest average allowed in any season since 1996. However, they allowed an average of just 13.4 points at home.

– Can the Jets get on the board early? In 2010, the Jets scored only 36 points in the first quarter, second fewest in the league:

35 – Panthers
36 – Jets
40 – Bills

– Watch the defenses on first down plays: During the regular season, the Jets allowed four or more yards on 41.2 percent of first down plays, the second best mark in the league. Compare that to Indy’s defense, which allowed 4+ yards on first down 54.0 percent of the time, second WORST in the league.

– The Jets defense forced their opponents into three and out an NFL best 30.2 percent of the time in 2010, while the Colts offense went one, two, three, kick on just 17.9 percent of possessions, the third lowest/best percentage by any offense.

– Jets receivers dropped 9.4 percent of catchable balls this year.

– Speaking of catchable balls, Jets’ quarterbacks (mostly Mark Sanchez) threw just 60.6 percent catchable balls this season, third lowest in the NFL:

57.9% – Cardinals
59.2% – Panthers
60.6% – Jets

Note this: 72.9 percent of throws by Peyton Manning were considered catchable, third best in the league. Over the last six weeks, it’s a league best 74.7 percent.

– 6.3 percent of pass completions against the Jets this season included 21 or more yards after the catch (YAC), the second highest such percentage in the league.

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robbomango said:

Sanchez 54% comp pct 17 tds 13 ints 9 fumbles 75 rating,
1 TD in last 4 games averaging 1.25 points per game in December(couldn't beat the worst soccer team in the world with those numbers)

Go Jets!!!

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The Colts are in the postseason for a record-tying ninth consecutive year despite a season rife with injuries. They'll play tonight without seven opening-game starters, including three-fourths of their secondary and offensive threats Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez.

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The Colts?

This season already is a success.

They won 10 games. They won the division. They reached the playoffs for a record-tying ninth straight year, a ridiculous accomplishment during this salary-cap age. And they did it despite losing all those starters, and all those backups and backups' backups, forced to use 72 players during the course of the season.

Anything and everything they accomplish from this point forward is a bonus.

Aaron Francisco, their safety, is the fourth guy they've used at the position this season, having started the season on the streets (well, not literally, but you get the idea). Jacob Tamme, one of today's key players, was a rarely-used backup and a special-teams demon when the year began. Dominic Rhodes spent most of the year with the Florida Tuskers, for crying out loud. Blair White was on the practice squad.

If the Colts lose tonight, there will be the usual Blue Sunday, the gnashing of teeth and the disappointment. But that will quickly give way to the realization this team cleared a lot of hurdles to reach this position, that this team, usually a front-runner, can summon something extra when it's fighting for its postseason life the first week of December. If they lose, fans will know that if this group stays reasonably healthy next year, they have another Super Bowl run in them, and maybe a couple more.

The pressure, really, is on the New York Jets. They lose, and they will go back home to screaming headlines and hordes of reporters and questions why they talk so loud and accomplish so little in the playoffs.

I'm on the record then: I like New York to win tonight. Why?

Because the Jets have added Antonio Cromartie and the Colts have lost Dallas Clark and Austin Collie.

Because the Jets figure to have Shonn Greene all game; remember, last year, the running back was injured in the second half.

Because Brad Smith is a remarkable kick returner, and the Colts coverage teams have been leaky in recent weeks.

Because this Colts secondary is missing three-quarters of its starters, and while Mark Sanchez runs hot and cold, he also goes into this game with an additional weapon, Santonio Holmes.

There wouldn't be anything wrong with my being wrong. I kind of like Pittsburgh. And the sooner the Colts are finished, the sooner our attention turns to the Indiana Pacers, and that isn't an option anybody wants to consider just yet.

So relax and enjoy the Colts' ride, however long it lasts.

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When in serious doubt, which certainly applies to playoffs picks, it makes the most sense to lean toward the better quarterback and the stronger pass rush. Yes, the Jets could win this. But for at least one more week, the pick is the Colts.

COLTS' RUN OFFENSE VS. JETS' RUN DEFENSE
This isn’t as tilted as the numbers suggest. People will look at overall statistics and see the Jets’ 90.9 rushing yards allowed and hit the check mark. But the Colts’ RB committee of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Dominic Rhodes has led a recent improvement, 133.5-yard average in the last four games. When the Colts have 22 rush attempts, they’re 10-0 this season. EDGE: JETS.

COLTS' PASS OFFENSE VS. JETS' PASS DEFENSE
The Jets will blitz. It’s what they do. QB Peyton Manning is traditionally effective in reading these extra rushers and making them pay for it. He carved up the Jets in last year’s AFC title game when they were the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Jets haven’t been getting as much pressure lately. Manning has been willing to let the run game take some of the load off him. EDGE: COLTS.

JETS' RUN OFFENSE VS. COLTS' RUN DEFENSE
Throw out this past blowout against hapless Buffalo and the Jets’ fourth-ranked rush offense didn’t exactly “Ground and Pound” the three previous games at 105.6 rushing yards per game. The Colts are better than their No. 25 ranking. In the last four games, two against No. 2 rush offenses and two against Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, the Colts allowed 79.8 rush yards per game. EDGE: EVEN.

JETS' PASS OFFENSE VS. COLTS' PASS DEFENSE
The Colts have a no-name secondary with guys the Jets probably never heard of while the Jets have proven talent in WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes and TE Dustin Keller. But it’s still about how much time QB Mark Sanchez will have to throw. The Colts’ Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will do their best to speed up the second-year pro’s inner clock. EDGE: EVEN.

SPECIAL TEAMS
If it weren’t for Colts PK Adam Vinatieri (26-of-28 FGs), this category would be a slam dunk for the visitors. Jets PK Nick Folk is 30-of-39 in FGs. That’s the only edge the Colts have. Jets P Steve Weatherford led the league with 42 punts inside the 20. Brad Smith returned a KO 106 yards for TD last year, the longest play in team history. The Colts average just 19.6 yards per KO return, the same number the Jets are allowing in KO coverage. EDGE: JETS.

COACHES
Jets coach Rex Ryan is the life of every podium party when cracking jokes and making bold statements in front of the demanding East Coast media masses. But sideshow aside, he like the Colts’ Jim Caldwell, has taken his team to the playoffs in his first two seasons. Ryan has a 22-13 record. Caldwell is 26-9. By contrast, Caldwell is understated and isn’t much for loud theatrics. EDGE: EVEN.

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>> The Colts will try to extend a late-season makeover that saw their offense establish a running attack and their defense effectively contain the run.

>> The outside passing-game matchups pitting the Colts' Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon against Jets cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie.

>> Oh, yeah, Rex vs. Peyton.

Ryan is 1-5 against Manning, 0-2 in the postseason, as the Jets coach and Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator. The most numbing loss came in last season's conference championship game when Ryan's high-risk Jets were filleted after bolting to a 17-6 lead. Manning passed for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory.

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The world knows how Rex Ryan feels about the New York Jets' chances in the postseason. But the brash coach evidently doesn't think the world believes him.

Ryan played on that theme Friday night in his address to the team. In a typically fiery presentation at the Jets' suburban Indianapolis hotel, Ryan hammered the team's critics, according to people in the room. He showed video clips of TV types criticizing the team and their ultra-confident coach.

From the start of the offseason program last March, the Jets -- led by Ryan -- have proclaimed themselves on a Super Bowl-or-bust mission. They have made plenty of enemies along the way, becoming the villain of the NFL postseason.

On the eve of the game, Ryan wanted his players to hear "the doubters," as one player put it. So they sat in a darkened ballroom, watching one after another take shots at them. Can't do this, can't do that. Can't beat Peyton Manning. Can't back up the tough talk.

At the same time, Ryan's presentation featured highlight plays from the season, emphasizing "the level of commitment that it takes to win it all," another player said. "He was pointing out all the hard work we've put in the offseason all the way to this point. It really got the juices flowing."

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RyanTheColtsFan said:

Can not STAND the Jets. I have respect for NE... not NY.

Hope we win.

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Sfpat said:

I see Gholston and McKnight are inactive. Great drafting by the Jets

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