Cassel's stock and tag+trade-ability level...

IMO Cassel's stock isn't just about his own performance, it's relative to the field. Did any of the QB-starved teams discover a hidden gem backup this week, or did any hotshot college junior unexpected announce they're coming out early?

Cassel may not have taken any great leaps forward on Sunday, but he got the job done. My guess is that game did nothing to change his status as the best combination of short-term readiness and long-term potential among the QBs on the market in 2009.

AzPatsFan said:

Wishful thinking is something that BB and SP DON'T do. Tom Brady will be unavailable or not the Tom Brady we all want until sometime into the next season.

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History of similar NFL injuries says he will probably be available from the start of the season but not yet at 100%, perhaps not 100% until 2010.

But how many available QBs (even including Cassel) at 100% are significantly better than Brady at 80%? Unless Brady's return has a setback they should and will put their scarce draft/free agent/cap resources into upgrading the rest of their team. I can see them picking up a 1M-2M veteran journeyman QB as disaster insurance if they don't believe O'Connell has progressed sufficiently, but not much more. Remember that their is a built-in bias against outsiders who don't know the system.

spacecrime said:

I thought he played better against the Steelers. Folks blame Matt Lights (lack of) blocking on Cassel, but people put a lot into stats and W/L's.

Forget about a tag & trade. Ain't gonna happen. Pats have too much class to intefere with Cassel's career after he came through big for them while earning about $400,000 this year.

They'll let him go where they want.

And no, they can't keep him. They can't afford him.

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I'll save this argument for another thread. Suffice it to say, I disagree and think its a mildly risky, complicated move worth making in the right circumstances.

MrBigglesWorth said:

yoou have to realize he didn't have welker in the 2nd half of the steelers game. that was a HUGE difference especially after seeing welker against seattle.

this is what makes the SB most painful. had they gone to welker all game it would have resulted in a victory

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I've never re-watched that game - and never, ever will - but I believe Unoriginal says the reason the Giants were able to pull it off was precisely b/c they flooded the short stuff so that Welker wasn't open. I trust Unorginal's analysis - and I think its probably spot on. Basically, the Giants baited the Pats to beat them deep, banking on the rush getting there before Moss could get deep - and it worked.

I digress for my own 02: when the Pats countered and started sending Moss on slants and shorter routes, they took the lead and were in position to win the game. Then we all know what happened.

As for how Cassel fares without Welker, other GMs aren't going to give him any leniency there. If he's going to get handed a big contract, he needs to be a force on his own. Personally, I think the drop-off in the Steelers game was as much about the mentality as it was Welker's absence. That game was over, mentally, and no team is going to play as well in that mindset.

BradyManny2344 said:

I'll save this argument for another thread. Suffice it to say, I disagree and think its a mildly risky, complicated move worth making in the right circumstances.

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Agreed, there's a slight risk that Cassel signs the Franchise offer and we can't trade him for anything at all - remember, even trading him for a 2012 #7 gets rid of the contract obligation for us. In terms of other references to screwing Cassel, he will still be getting his money - if a team wants to give him a big contract (inherent in the argument that we're screwing him) then they'll give up a little something (or more) to trade for him.

patchick said:

IMO Cassel's stock isn't just about his own performance, it's relative to the field. Did any of the QB-starved teams discover a hidden gem backup this week, or did any hotshot college junior unexpected announce they're coming out early?

Cassel may not have taken any great leaps forward on Sunday, but he got the job done. My guess is that game did nothing to change his status as the best combination of short-term readiness and long-term potential among the QBs on the market in 2009.

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Yeah, this is probably about right.

But I hope in future Sundays, he elevates his status, for the sake of a) the team's immediate future (playoffs) b) the team's more long term future (tag and trade = picks and c) Cassel's future (I like the guy regardless of what uniform he ends up wearing....well unless its NY Jets green)

BradyManny2344 said:

I've never re-watched that game - and never, ever will - but I believe Unoriginal says the reason the Giants were able to pull it off was precisely b/c they flooded the short stuff so that Welker wasn't open. I trust Unorginal's analysis - and I think its probably spot on. Basically, the Giants baited the Pats to beat them deep, banking on the rush getting there before Moss could get deep - and it worked.

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I, also, haven't studied the game. But I do know that the Patriots tried a lot of long throws and were unsuccessfuly. The only time they were successful was in the 2nd half when they started throwing short, quick throws for 5-15 yard games; they made right down the field and scored. I continue to believe that the offensive game plan of the Patriots was one of the most significant (or even the most significant) reasons that they lost. A lot of short passes would have made the pass rush irrelevant.

BelichickFan said:

Agreed, there's a slight risk that Cassel signs the Franchise offer and we can't trade him for anything at all - remember, even trading him for a 2012 #7 gets rid of the contract obligation for us. In terms of other references to screwing Cassel, he will still be getting his money - if a team wants to give him a big contract (inherent in the argument that we're screwing him) then they'll give up a little something (or more) to trade for him.

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Thats the big problem the Franchise tag won't be an effective tool for the team to use on Cassell.

If people don't think Cassel won't sign the tender immediately (11 million now going to 14 million maybe?) they are nuts. Once the tender is signed they are guaranteed, no ifs ands or butts, then you have to trade him. Cassell won't out of the goodness of his heart pass up guaranteeing what is essentially an 11+ million signing bonus to stay or negotiate a new contract with another team.

If you let him walk and someone gives him a big FA contract and we don't land any big FA's you could get a third round comp pick the following year.

So do you risk tying up over 11 million of the cap to your back up in the hopes that some team will pony up a second round or late first round pick for Cassell this year?...before the draft?....and once leverage is gone when he signs the deal?.......that would be just a big NO IMO.

There is just too much risk in using the franchise tag here.

sdh7711 said:

Thats the big problem the Franchise tag won't be an effective tool for the team to use on Cassell.

If people don't think Cassel won't sign the tender immediately (11 million now going to 14 million maybe?) they are nuts. Once the tender is signed they are guaranteed, no ifs ands or butts, then you have to trade him. Cassell won't out of the goodness of his heart pass up guaranteeing what is essentially an 11+ million signing bonus to stay or negotiate a new contract with another team.

If you let him walk and someone gives him a big FA contract and we don't land any big FA's you could get a third round comp pick the following year.

So do you risk tying up over 11 million of the cap to your back up in the hopes that some team will pony up a second round or late first round pick for Cassell this year?...before the draft?....and once leverage is gone when he signs the deal?.......that would be just a big NO IMO.

There is just too much risk in using the franchise tag here.

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Cassel is not going to dash down to Patriots Place to sign a 1 year contract to back up Tom Brady. He'll look for a long-term deal with guaranteed money and will strike while the iron is hot rather than serving as Brady's backup for a season.

The former GM, Casserly was discussing the Cassel situation. He claimed that the first thing that Cassel should do is sign the Franchise Tender - immediately.

At that point any trade would have to include a new contract with the new team. The contract would have to be approved / worked out with Cassel and his agent, not the patriots. Essentially giving Cassel control over where he goes.

Let's say the Lions make the only realistic offer. If Cassel refuses the play for them, he could turn down their contract offer and stick the Pats into a $14M one year contract.

On the other hand, If he doesn't sign it, the Pats could work the best trade deal and send him to whatever team coughs up the best pick.

Casserly thought that there would be too much risk in getting stuck with Cassel and that huge salary hit to risk using the Tag on him.

Taxed in Maine said:

The former GM, Casserly was discussing the Cassel situation. He claimed that the first thing that Cassel should do is sign the Franchise Tender - immediately.

Casserly thought that there would be too much risk in getting stuck with Cassel and that huge salary hit to risk using the Tag on him.

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There is a reason he's a former GM.

That's not to say he isn't right here. As I said before, we're literally in uncharted waters.

ctpatsfan77 said:

There is a reason he's a former GM.

That's not to say he isn't right here. As I said before, we're literally in uncharted waters.

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The problem with Casserly's argument is that history runs the other way. It's not that Cassel signing the tender would be stupid, it's that it would prevent him from getting the optimal return on his 'investment'. There's a player up in Minnesota who Cassel can look to in order to figure out how to approach the situation.

Deus Irae said:

Cassel is not going to dash down to Patriots Place to sign a 1 year contract to back up Tom Brady. He'll look for a long-term deal with guaranteed money and will strike while the iron is hot rather than serving as Brady's backup for a season.

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If he signs the tender he might still get the big payday this offseason, and can control what team he plays for, and worst case gets 14M guaranteed and still is almost certainly in for a future even bigger payday in an uncapped NFL. He's be crazy not to sign it in 10 minutes. Signing the tender probably makes him even a great deal more money in the end than hitting the market unfranchised.

alamo said:

If he signs the tender he might still get the big payday this offseason, and can control what team he plays for, and worst case gets 14M guaranteed and still is almost certainly in for a future even bigger payday in an uncapped NFL. He's be crazy not to sign it in 10 minutes. Signing the tender probably makes him even a great deal more money in the end than hitting the market unfranchised.

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Again, this goes against the run of history. People are overthinking this. Historically, players don't rush to sign these. In all likelihood, Cassel won't either.

I don't believe he will be tagged..........I think he will just walk

he won't garner that much in a trade anyway

Deus Irae said:

Again, this goes against the run of history. People are overthinking this. Historically, players don't rush to sign these. In all likelihood, Cassel won't either.

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Historically, most franchise players are tagged because their team wants to keep them, not trade them. In this case it is to the player's advantage leaving the tender unsigned, because they can show up for traiming camp when they want to (and perhaps negotiate an agreement such as Asante got.)

Being tendered primarily to be traded (and that's what it is even if the team can make a plausible argument it's not) is a different story. As an example, a few years ago Oakland tagged Charles Woodson in order to trade him, and he turned around and signed the tender and they ended up with him for the season. So it does happen.

The Players Union has come out saying they have a real problem with tagging only for a trade and a read some where a while back the the league was going to try to abide by their wishes.

questionman said:

The Players Union has come out saying they have a real problem with tagging only for a trade and a read some where a while back the the league was going to try to abide by their wishes.

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That would only be an issue if BB reported in mid-February that Brady's knee was already 100% of what it was pre-injury. Otherwise the Pats have a built-in excuse.

And, come to think of it, why isn't the NFLPA griping about the Asomugha situation (where basically Al Davis is slapping the exclusive franchise tag and not even making any real effort to sign Asomugha long term or trade him)?

sdh7711 said:

Thats the big problem the Franchise tag won't be an effective tool for the team to use on Cassell.

If people don't think Cassel won't sign the tender immediately (11 million now going to 14 million maybe?) they are nuts. Once the tender is signed they are guaranteed, no ifs ands or butts, then you have to trade him. Cassell won't out of the goodness of his heart pass up guaranteeing what is essentially an 11+ million signing bonus to stay or negotiate a new contract with another team.

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Taxed in Maine said:

The former GM, Casserly was discussing the Cassel situation. He claimed that the first thing that Cassel should do is sign the Franchise Tender - immediately.

At that point any trade would have to include a new contract with the new team. The contract would have to be approved / worked out with Cassel and his agent, not the patriots. Essentially giving Cassel control over where he goes.

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Seems to me all of these arguments are missing something critical. Barring a new labor agreement, that franchise salary has to last him TWO seasons.

Remember that one of the poison pills of the uncapped year is requiring 6 seasons for unrestricted free agency. So while Cassel is a UFA for 2009, the minute he signed the franchise tender the Pats would own him as an RFA for 2010.

Combine that with the likelihood that he'd been sitting on the bench next season in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, and I'd expect Cassel to avoid the tender contract like the plague.

The market in free agent QBs is quite crowded this year. There are also a few QBs likely to be traded. Cassel is very attractive as a free agent (definitely in the top 2-3) but I would be surprised if anyone offered a first round pick for him (even a low first). I would still consider him a borderline starter on a regular team (he did take over the No1 offense in league history). I think he could do very well on a team like the Vikings, Bears or even the 49ers that have some pieces in place. On a really bad team with one one quality receiver and no O-line (Lions) he would struggle (anyone would be but he has particular trouble when the protection breaks down or when Welker is covered).

As for the Patriots keeping him, I don't think he represents value at the salary they would have to pay him to stay (even without the Tag). Obviously I have no special insight into BB's thoughts but he has almost never paid extra in this kind of situation. Even if Brady struggled initially I think they would let him play his way back like the Colts did with Manning.