Need vs Value:
- This is a misunderstood concept, and Felger is always distorting it
- Need influences draft strategy, no question, but the Pats never let it be the primary determinent.
- Value comes first, and I think they view Need as a tiebreaker, along with Rare. At a given drafting position, they first look at who's got the right value at that spot. From that list, if they see a player that also meets a need, bingo.
- If they don't see a player that meets a need but suspect that they will get that combination of value & need at a lower draft point, they'll try to trade down and gain an extra pick.
- If they can't trade down, they'll take the value pick, even if it's not a need.
- In round one, they had 2 players they loved: Mayo and DRC. Both represented excellent value at 10, along with probably 2 or 3 other guys at other positions. They had need at both LB and CB, so that narrowed the pool to those 2. Because they felt Mayo was really rare, that's what led to his selection.
- Notice they didn't jump at Mayo at #7, because the value wasn't there at 7. In the upper first round, a few slots either way is huge. They knew that they would be overpaying both in dollars and in potential picks if they did that, and they were right. New Orleans agreed.
- If they had been drafting at 3 or 5, and were unable to make a deal down that had the right value, chances are they would have taken Dorsey because he would have represented the better value pick.
- In the 3rd round, O'Connell represented the best value, along with being a very rare athlete. Value and rarity trumped Need in that case.
So you can see from those examples that Value is really the driver, but Need plays into the final selection.