Patriots Offense - A plethora of riches??

[DaBruinz]

Not to burst your bubble or crap on your excitement, but I could give two flips how great and easy it will be for Brady in the regular season, with 70% of teams in cap hell or rebuilding, etc, and with the rules making it so easy to move the ball and Goodell wanting the Jaguars in London.

Please provide actual facts to support the claim in bold... I'm sure that Miguel will be really intrigued by all the teams in "cap hell"..

 

[DaBruinz]

Right, but dude, SB 46 is not far off from SB 42 in how it was approached. SB 46 is worse, because of what I typed.

When BJGE started got say, min 12 carries in game, our team never lost. I went back and looked at 2010's game at Pitt for example and saw he was thrown to and used as a lead back and we blew them out on the road.

I know it sounds weird because BJGE was an overachieving guy, but so was Antowain Smith. Each hit the hole quick and hit the right one. That's all you need for Brady. Just move the sticks, 3.5- 4 YPC. That's it.

That's just one example how balanced they were with him, especially after the Moss trade. Brady was OLD GREAT Brady Week 5 - Week 17 in 2010, and that's why he won the MVP. Who would have thought trading MOss would do that? I was relieved Moss was dealt that year. Relieved.

In SB 46, in the 2011 season, we should have known the Giants knew they could rush 4 and drop 7 into coverage and dictate that way. Because that's what they did in SB 42 and EARLIER in Foxborough with another giftwrapped win for them. Brady threw 2 INTs in that game. We lost only because Chung and Spikes went down in the 4th qtr.

They should have used some motion with Gronk or whoever to block and then run some run plays with BJGE over and over in the 3rd with a 17-9, 17-12 and 17-15 lead, it would have weakened the Giants approach, given Brady playaction, and NE would have pulled away with a balanced offense.

It's like they panic because t's a lower scoring, closer game. That's the best way to describe it.

Heck, they were already using Woodhead in the slot as a WR, so he could have motioned back and forth, just leaving BJGE on the field more to run inside, kill clock, not fumble (no Brady INT is likely), etc.

Look at it like this: All 3 of Brady's major gaffes in that game..Take away just one of em? We win it. Again, painful to admit. I put more onus on Brady, than say, Nink jumping offsides on a Sterling Moore INT play, for example. Why? Because the D held the entire game to 13 points, until the end. 13 points! BB's gameplan in that SB would have ALSO been on the wall in Canton for crying out loud. Sterling Moore and Edelman playing CB? As young as that team was? Incredible.

We had leads of 17-9, 17-12 and 17-15, which means the D was doing its job by giving clock but also holding them to FGs.

When the Giants started settling for FGs, I thought we'd win, but we kept subbing BJGE on and off. That's O'Brien and Brady's fault for not seeing it.

If they had gotten BJGE to even 12 carries instead of his obligatory subbed in 8 variety, we win.

The Giants never would have won the TOP (it would have been even or close to it), and they never would have had the clock they had at the end.

I find it amazing that someone who claims real fans don't care about stats reverts back to stats to try and make his point about BJGE and the Pats running game in 2010.. smh..

 

[Galeb]

When BJGE started got say, min 12 carries in game, our team never lost.

If it was as simple as you suggest, they could have just fed BJGE the ball on the first 12 plays and won. Have you considered that perhaps BGJE sometimes got so many touches because the Pats were winning, not vice versa?

Unless you have a superior RB, much of their production is dependent on the OLine. In both SBs against the Giants, the Pats OL was hobbled.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Plus Lewis and White catching out of the backfield.

I just hope JE can stay healthy all year.

But those two TEs alone will cause MAJOR issues for teams..like Rex said (smartest thing he ever said) "I don't know how we are going to defend those two"

The only way we don't score 30 a game if healthy.. is if we get in our own way. We will be unstoppable in the RZ

Jimmy G is set up to succeed in the first 4 games that's for sure

 

[aeg]

I'm not sure that Hogan is money in the bank. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if Keshawn Martin or even Chris Harper or DeAndre Carter came to play a decent-sized role.

Hogan is my binky this year ... I can't wait to buy his #15 jersey and wear it around town ... I live in Hogan's home town and always get crap wearing Pat's jerseys.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Hogan is my binky this year ... I can't wait to buy his #15 jersey and wear it around town ... I live in Hogan's home town and always get crap wearing Pat's jerseys.

Nothing I said means I don't hope for the very best from him -- as I did from Brandon Lafell and Scott Chandler. Good luck in keeping the flame alive!

 

[Rusty Griswold]

I find it amazing that someone who claims real fans don't care about stats reverts back to stats to try and make his point about BJGE and the Pats running game in 2010.. smh..

ugh....you have missed the point. once i saw the pattern, i went back and researched the data to see of what i was seeing on my tv screen could be supported by said data, and it was.

look, i like the woodheads, the vereens, the dion lewis types as much as the next guy, but scatbacks are lead backs on LOSING teams.

weis never would never sub antowain smith on and off on drives like that. never.

he would use one style offense with one back (smith) and another with more of an uptempo with a scatback type (faulk), for the entire driv or sets of plays in a row.

he never subbed them on and off at those rates.

my point about brady chasing stats is that he has become a worse game manager because of it.

death to the shotgun spread base in title games and super bowls.

thanks.

 

[Rusty Griswold]

Plus Lewis and White catching out of the backfield.

I just hope JE can stay healthy all year.

But those two TEs alone will cause MAJOR issues for teams..like Rex said (smartest thing he ever said) "I don't know how we are going to defend those two"

The only way we don't score 30 a game if healthy.. is if we get in our own way. We will be unstoppable in the RZ

Jimmy G is set up to succeed in the first 4 games that's for sure

brady will never be suspended

 

[Rusty Griswold]

Please provide actual facts to support the claim in bold... I'm sure that Miguel will be really intrigued by all the teams in "cap hell"..

Claims? Umm, it;s a fact.

Many teams are apparently unaware of the ROI with rookie contract, so if you draft relatively well, you can get a Muhammed Wilkerson for example at less than 15 mil per year for about 4 years.

The Jets are so dumb, continue to dumb, and apparently don't get this concept. The lead the league annually in cap hell stupidity.

Continuity is huge in the sport of football, more so than any other major sport. Hands down. This means cap health is huge.

One way to tell is the teams that had to succumb to the Flacco Contract of 20 mil per. For example, I have no idea how Denver just won a SB. They likely cheated the cap again, because Gomer's 20 mil per contract just came off the books AND they lost 8 key starters on both sides of the ball.

SO, how on earth did they they afford them WHILE they ALL were under contract the last few years? They likely cheated the cap, but even not having a 20 mil per QB anymore, Denver is rebuilding from that cap hell. Good thing Gomer had Chinese roids from Guyer and the audits don't come out for a few years, huh?

It's why Osweiler had the leverage and cashed in and why they couldn't afford Kaeperdick.

Talib, Ward, Demarius Thomas all have bloated contracts to the point Elway has lost every good draft pick he made, which wasn't many. He also just had to raise CJ Anderson's price, simply because another cap hell team (Miami), refuses to draft and develop like Elway does.

It's like a chain rreaction of arrogance and a lack of patience in teambuilding. Meanwhile, BB has had the blueprint for 15 years in this league, but arrogant teams think there is another way. Elway somehow got a winner, but I think we can agree, they were beyond lucky how injured our team was in 2013 and 2015. We wipe the floor with them in both years if we had our A Squad out there. It is what it is, but it's the truth.

I don't know how a crappy QB leads a team to a SB in this day and age, but I can only imagine if the entire NFL had their hands on those Chinese roids Gomer had access to. Wait until Von Miller and his roids bends Elway over the sink. It's why they have no QB for years to come, unless Lynch somehow works out, which is unlikely.

Anyway, many teams are in cap hell quite simply because Ozzie forgot to budget for Flacco by 2012. Flacco then bent Ozzie over the sink, which triggered every team from Miami to Houston to overpay at 18-20 mil per.

Seattle got away with it by using Marshawn Lynch to keep a good, but not great Russell Wilson under a rookie contract before he came due.

I could go on for days explaining which teams have top heavy finances across their rosters, Miguel or no Miguel. lmao

The Thursday night product absolutely blows, not enough teams have drafted as well as BB has, taking advantage of that rookie cap.

While teams were busy being greedy and thinking they were ready to compete off the lockout, buying up free agents left and right (Rememeber Mike Wallace and Courtland FInnegan at 14 mil per??!), BB was doubling down in Rds 1-3, in 2010, 2011 and 2012 in the draft. BB just had to trade Chandler Jones because of how good his drafting has been, while keeping costs down under the rookie cap, and filtering in contract controlled FAs when he needs it.

Can you name another franchise that does this as well and as consistently well? No, ya can't. I would have said CIncy in the AFC, which is true, but they're also paying Andy Dalton way too much because of that Flacco disaster and its league wide repercussisons.

Giants, Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Dolphins, Bills, Bucs, Cowboys, Skins, Jets, etc, etc, etc....All it takes is 1 or 2 bloated contracts on a team, and it's all she wrote for your cap health.

Teams that are somewhat well run like Cincy, Pitt, KC, to some degree SD, at least in the AFC, still have lesser quality rosters than us. Pitt has no D for example. They are mediocre at best. Brady will shred that zone D in Pitt this year, book it.

Houston was in a cap hell with two bloated contracts in Foster and Johnson at the same time, and what does Rick Smith do? Turn right around and go back into that cap hell with Osweiler and DeAndre Hopkins due in a year. Whoops!

Arizona? Cap hell after this year.....Fitzgerald's llast year is this year, but they'll be forced to overpay Calais Campbell and now Chandler Jones. Whooops! Better win it all this year, huh Bruce Arians? Carson Palmer ain't getting any younger.

Another example is, the Dez Bryant contract meant a bad contract in Denver for Demarious Thomas because Elway was too busy with the check book, he never budgeted for him, so Jerry Jones's money management skills have a trickle down effect to similar to players and similar moronic GMs like John Elway. Anyone can open a checkbook, but is the team ever entering a cap hell?

Ours has NEVER entered a cap hell status. Ever.

I suppose I could make a list right now and tell you who is rebuilding due to some awful contracts, horrible drafts, but my fingers are tired.

Have a nice day.

PS Jacobs has destroyed our Bruins for 40 years. Sinden is still a consultant. Painful.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

scatbacks are lead backs on LOSING teams

It's very hard to figure out in which direction the causality runs. Teams that are convincingly winning a game usually switch to a four-minute offense with a large dose of a big back. So winning teams will tend to use big backs more - but that's because they are winning. It does not necessarily imply that they are winning because they use big backs more.

To sort this out, I think it would be informative to look at first quarter statistics, or use statistics that exclude running plays in lopsided games.

 

[Rusty Griswold]

If it was as simple as you suggest, they could have just fed BJGE the ball on the first 12 plays and won. Have you considered that perhaps BGJE sometimes got so many touches because the Pats were winning, not vice versa?

Unless you have a superior RB, much of their production is dependent on the OLine. In both SBs against the Giants, the Pats OL was hobbled.

Umm, not to be rude, but maybe you should bow out of the conversation if you're going to look at it like you're a 10 year old with no semblance of understanding concepts like deception in the sport.

It's not the amount of carries. It's how you call plays and set the opposing defense up to use your players in best positions to execute well, hence moving the chains, and eventually scoring.

Fact: Against good or great Ds, Brady usually throws 1 INT if not most of the time, 2. Once he surges past 40 pass attempts, these things happen:

1. Our O Line looks worse than it really is, SB 42 or now. The Giants knew Brady wanted to put on a show and centered their gameplan around it. SB 46 was doubly painful, because Brady did it again.

2. Our defnese is on the field too much, hung out to dry, defending short fields too much, also looking worse than it is.

3. Brady himself looks like Jay Cutler as opposed to Brady.

Brady is the best QB of all time and the best playaction QB ever, but you need some version or a run game between the tackles to get to that point.

It's why we lost to the Jets in the divisionals in 2010, the Ravens in the title game in 2012, where we should have lost the year before (Brady's 2 INTs on 1st down), lost those two SBs, and even though undermanned in Denver this year, why we couldn't get to 20 points again.

20 points is the magic number:

The D needs to hold to 20 and under on its own accord
The O needs to score 20+ on its own accord

Every single team this teams has lost a winnable game since 2007 when this started, this is what has happened against a good/great D/one that matches up well.

 

[Rusty Griswold]

It's very hard to figure out in which direction the causality runs. Teams that are convincingly winning a game usually switch to a four-minute offense with a large dose of a big back. So winning teams will tend to use big backs more - but that's because they are winning. It does not necessarily imply that they are winning because they use big backs more.

To sort this out, I think it would be informative to look at first quarter statistics, or use statistics that exclude running plays in lopsided games.

I think you want every single thing in your arsenal, which we've had, even if in various forms of quality...This may be laughed at, but I truly believe if Bolden was the lead back in the title game this past year, Iosefa was active as opposes to the barely used Jackson, and we committed to Bolden early in the 1st and 2nd qtrs of what was a low scoring game thanks to our D, we win that game.

I truly believe that and Brady wouldn't have gotten knocked around like he did. You know Cannon has turf toe, so you leave him out there? Why? Give him help! Show Denver you will run at the edges and attack on the ground. Quick snaps, Brady under Center, soften em up, etc.

I think by the 2nd half, Miller/Ware would have been neutralized enough to dictate and open the windows for Brady, running some draws from the shotgun when needed, to run clock on 3rd downs if we came up short.

If you run 4 plays, and 1 play is a run play on a 3rd down as opposed to a pass, for example, that clock still runs. When it's an incomplete pass, it stops. I know this is obvious, but that's another 44 seconds off the clock, and if we could have just gotten to playaction and taken a slight lead, the pressure would have been on Gomer.

McDaniels panics too easily, as did O'Brien.

On D, we could have stacked the box a bit, taken out Anderson and started to dictate on D more, where Gomer's wounded ducks probably would have generated an INT or two.

In other words, Denver's D is the good/great variety, at least last year it was, so we needed a heavy set gameplan to start with...For whatever the reason, we did that opposite.

Carolina also made the same mistake, for god knows what reason, other than Riverboat Ron caving to big ego Newton, the latter wanting to put on a show. It's probably what happened. So, instead of learning from our mistake, Carolina ignored it and copied us. At least we had an excuse with Blount and LEwis out, though.

I would have hammered it relentlessly at the feeble Miller and Ware, as run stoppers.

Were Bolden and Iosefa, with Mike Williams chipping on Miller, the most ideal players in a title game? Nope, but it was our best approach.

If it doesn't work, then you throw caution to the win and go shotgun spread base finesse with Jame White as the scatback.

But, we never got a chance to see it. A shame. We'll never know.

 

[Raymond]

brady will never be suspended

I thought he is suspended as of right now.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

I think you want every single thing in your arsenal

Can't disagree with that - be great to have a RB that doesn't signal "inside run" or "outside run/catch" by his mere presence on the field.

You want a back that can run it down their throats if they go nickel against our two TE set but still has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield if they go heavy.

 

[Nunchucks]

I think it is way to early to make any predictions about the offense. Lots of questions to be answered.

 

[BobDigital]

The Pats have very good depth but the key is the front line players and the pats have 4 true difference makers in Gronk Bennett Edelman and Lewis.

I can't recall the last time Brady had 4 guys that can win a 1v1 match up straight up. That is rare.

 

[Rusty Griswold]

It's very hard to figure out in which direction the causality runs. Teams that are convincingly winning a game usually switch to a four-minute offense with a large dose of a big back. So winning teams will tend to use big backs more - but that's because they are winning. It does not necessarily imply that they are winning because they use big backs more.

To sort this out, I think it would be informative to look at first quarter statistics, or use statistics that exclude running plays in lopsided games.

Also, we'd have to agree on who is a good/great D and who isn't.

Let me say this: To put my theory to the test, I can go right down our schedule and tell you if the preferred Brady Shotgun Spread Base works against which D and where it won't.

Example: It won't work in Arizona in Week 1.

It will work vs Pitt @ Pitt because their D is average and it's a zone D, which Brady shreds. In that game, however, since Pitt's offense is very good, Brady needs to be balance in his attack mode and game manager mode. In other words, try not to score too fast. Getting into a shootout on the road, may mean a loss.

Week 2 - Dolphins - This is a tough one. It;s a home opener, but I think you can use the SS-Base here because they lost Vernon, which means you can isolate Wake. PLus, they lost Grimes and Jamar Taylor and I think Edelman abuses Maxwell here, so you use it.
Week 3 - Bills - I think it works here, too, at home.
Week 4 -Browns - Use it.
Week 5 - Bengals - I still say this is a formidable front 7 and I would not use the SS-Base here. I would get a run game going for playaction.
Week 6 - @Steelers - Mediocre D, they play mostly zone and don't have the LBs or Safeties. Use the SS-Base.
Week 7 - @ Bills - Rexie will have em juiced up and they'll play above their heads on D. Do not use the SS-Base.
Week 8 - Bye
Week 9 - Seahawks - Do not use it here. They may play mostly zone, but they still have that front 7 that matches up so wel, with the LBs and Safeties to match. It's why Brady tossed two awful INTs in SB 49.
Week 10 - @ 49ers - Use it. They are rebuilding.
Week 11 - @ Jets - See @ Buffalo above. It's the Jets SB. Get a run game going and then shred them in the second half.
Week 12 - Rams - Very good D. I would go with the run game approach here, even at home.
Week 13 - @ Ravens - Rebuilding. Use the SS-Base.
Week 14 - @ Broncos - Rebuilding. But, they may still have enough and Brady does not play well there. would not use the SS-Base here. Loud, too. Quick snaps, quick runs, lots of motion, two TE stacks.
Week 15 - Jets - Shred em with it. Home game.
Week 16 - @ Dolphins - Do not use it here. Brady struggles down there, so lean on the run based approach early.

Divisional Round - Usually a cupcake, so it should be fine at home off a Bye.
Title Game - Again, barring the 2014 Indy Cupcakes, it shouldnt be used here, even at home, if they do get the 1 seed.

SB - If we are lucky enough to get there, we'll likely need to go with the run based approach, barring it be some zone based D that doesn't match up like a Seattle would.

 

[Galeb]

Umm, not to be rude, but maybe you should bow out of the conversation if you're going to look at it like you're a 10 year old with no semblance of understanding concepts like deception in the sport.

It's not the amount of carries. It's how you call plays and set the opposing defense up to use your players in best positions to execute well, hence moving the chains, and eventually scoring.

Fact: Against good or great Ds, Brady usually throws 1 INT if not most of the time, 2. Once he surges past 40 pass attempts, these things happen:

1. Our O Line looks worse than it really is, SB 42 or now. The Giants knew Brady wanted to put on a show and centered their gameplan around it. SB 46 was doubly painful, because Brady did it again.

2. Our defnese is on the field too much, hung out to dry, defending short fields too much, also looking worse than it is.

3. Brady himself looks like Jay Cutler as opposed to Brady.

Brady is the best QB of all time and the best playaction QB ever, but you need some version or a run game between the tackles to get to that point.

It's why we lost to the Jets in the divisionals in 2010, the Ravens in the title game in 2012, where we should have lost the year before (Brady's 2 INTs on 1st down), lost those two SBs, and even though undermanned in Denver this year, why we couldn't get to 20 points again.

20 points is the magic number:

The D needs to hold to 20 and under on its own accord
The O needs to score 20+ on its own accord

Every single team this teams has lost a winnable game since 2007 when this started, this is what has happened against a good/great D/one that matches up well.

If directly debunking an inaccurate statement makes one look like a child, then I guess I'll just look like a child. You explicitly stated that if BJGE gets the ball X number of times the Pats will win. This betrays a clear lack of understanding of the blurry cause and effect relationship between running attempts and winning.

Your premise is wrong, no matter how many words you throw at it. When a defense is shutting down the run because of poor offensive line play, the effect of deception diminishes greatly. Your premise might* apply if the Pats had a lesser QB, but not always and certainly not in the Pat's case. When your OL has no answer to the opposing team's DL, running the ball with a below average back makes a team much less likely to win than putting the ball in Brady's hands.

Fact: The Patriots OL was hobbled in each Superbowl loss.
Fact: Every QB has worse stats against good defenses.
Fact: Patriots are 11-6 when Brady throws 50+ times in a game.
Fact: The next best in the league is 4-12.
Fact: BJGE averaged 4.2 ypc on a prolific offense with an excellent OL.
Fact: BJGE averaged 3.7 ypc with the Bengals.
Fact: In both Superbowl losses, when Brady got the ball with 2+ minutes to go, he drove the team to a go-ahead score.

Your attempt at not being rude was unsuccessful.

 

[rochrist]

I think you want every single thing in your arsenal, which we've had, even if in various forms of quality...This may be laughed at, but I truly believe if Bolden was the lead back in the title game this past year, Iosefa was active as opposes to the barely used Jackson, and we committed to Bolden early in the 1st and 2nd qtrs of what was a low scoring game thanks to our D, we win that game.

I truly believe that and Brady wouldn't have gotten knocked around like he did. You know Cannon has turf toe, so you leave him out there? Why? Give him help! Show Denver you will run at the edges and attack on the ground. Quick snaps, Brady under Center, soften em up, etc.

I think by the 2nd half, Miller/Ware would have been neutralized enough to dictate and open the windows for Brady, running some draws from the shotgun when needed, to run clock on 3rd downs if we came up short.

If you run 4 plays, and 1 play is a run play on a 3rd down as opposed to a pass, for example, that clock still runs. When it's an incomplete pass, it stops. I know this is obvious, but that's another 44 seconds off the clock, and if we could have just gotten to playaction and taken a slight lead, the pressure would have been on Gomer.

McDaniels panics too easily, as did O'Brien.

On D, we could have stacked the box a bit, taken out Anderson and started to dictate on D more, where Gomer's wounded ducks probably would have generated an INT or two.

In other words, Denver's D is the good/great variety, at least last year it was, so we needed a heavy set gameplan to start with...For whatever the reason, we did that opposite.

Carolina also made the same mistake, for god knows what reason, other than Riverboat Ron caving to big ego Newton, the latter wanting to put on a show. It's probably what happened. So, instead of learning from our mistake, Carolina ignored it and copied us. At least we had an excuse with Blount and LEwis out, though.

I would have hammered it relentlessly at the feeble Miller and Ware, as run stoppers.

Were Bolden and Iosefa, with Mike Williams chipping on Miller, the most ideal players in a title game? Nope, but it was our best approach.

If it doesn't work, then you throw caution to the win and go shotgun spread base finesse with Jame White as the scatback.

But, we never got a chance to see it. A shame. We'll never know.

Sadly, they haven't hired you to replace Bill.

 

[Rusty Griswold]

If directly debunking an inaccurate statement makes one look like a child, then I guess I'll just look like a child. You explicitly stated that if BJGE gets the ball X number of times the Pats will win. This betrays a clear lack of understanding of the blurry cause and effect relationship between running attempts and winning.

Your premise is wrong, no matter how many words you throw at it. When a defense is shutting down the run because of poor offensive line play, the effect of deception diminishes greatly. Your premise might* apply if the Pats had a lesser QB, but not always and certainly not in the Pat's case. When your OL has no answer to the opposing team's DL, running the ball with a below average back makes a team much less likely to win than putting the ball in Brady's hands.

Fact: The Patriots OL was hobbled in each Superbowl loss.
Fact: Every QB has worse stats against good defenses.
Fact: Patriots are 11-6 when Brady throws 50+ times in a game.
Fact: The next best in the league is 4-12.
Fact: BJGE averaged 4.2 ypc on a prolific offense with an excellent OL.
Fact: BJGE averaged 3.7 ypc with the Bengals.
Fact: In both Superbowl losses, when Brady got the ball with 2+ minutes to go, he drove the team to a go-ahead score.

Your attempt at not being rude was unsuccessful.

11-6 vs what kind of defenses when throwing 50+ times?

you are in over your head if you don't understand brady has sucked or been mediocre vs good or great Ds since 2007 when throwing 40+ times by choice.

i will never forget seattle in 2012 when he mouthed off pre game and then went out and tossed 2 0r 3 ints leading the offense, going 1/6 in the red zone.

another example, one of at least a dozen+ since mcdaniels and he got together.

i am not watching another postseason like the terrible ones again. this cannot continue.

it is an easier offensive era than even 15 years ago.