Going up aganst the #1 D Sunday...what do you expect from the O?

[Nikolai]

I said 31 points in alamo's game, but admit that I'm going on the lower side of my gut feeling. My gut tells me there is no reason the Pats can't hang 40 on Detroit. The Pats just have too many options to counter whatever Detroit might be doing. The general pattern the last six games has been a slower first quarter, adjustments by the second, continued dominance in the third, and mops, brooms, and bodybags by the fourth.

I don't expect a huge rushing performance, but then, I didn't expect one against Indy...

 

[Haley]

I expect Vereen to have a big day. The Lions don't do well against RB receivers. Maybe we will see some of White as well, who knows. I imagine they will heavily cover Gronk and we will have some opportunities with LaFell and Minitron as a result, particularly those Edelperson-End-Arounds. So, pretty much business as usual except that our between the tackle run game will be minimal.

 

[mayoclinic]

I expect Vereen to have a big day. The Lions don't do well against RB receivers. Maybe we will see some of White as well, who knows. I imagine they will heavily cover Gronk and we will have some opportunities with LaFell and Minitron as a result, particularly those Edelperson-End-Arounds. So, pretty much business as usual except that our between the tackle run game will be minimal.

It's obviously a longshot, but I kind of wish that we'd see the Pats use both Vereen and James White against the Lions. There were a lot of reports that they were experimenting with using 2 backs out of the backfield last spring - the kind of thing Chip Kelly does a lot of with Philly. I think Detroit would be a great time to throw in that wrinkle to the offense. Again, a long shot, but an intriguing one.

 

[Gronkowski123]

unleash the gronk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

150 + yards

 

[SalemPats]

I think we'll put up 40, but the defense will contribute to that number

 

[BTTA]

The coaching staff has been able to get creative lately, and there's no reason for it to stop. The 6th OL last week - did anyone see that coming? It was the perfect statement to the other team: we know your strengths, but we don't care, because we are going to game plan to amplify your weaknesses.

I'd expect something similar this week to counter the Lions' DL. Just make them irrelevant, probably in some way that we won't predict. And I love it.

 

[SalemPats]

It's obviously a longshot, but I kind of wish that we'd see the Pats use both Vereen and James White against the Lions. There were a lot of reports that they were experimenting with using 2 backs out of the backfield last spring - the kind of thing Chip Kelly does a lot of with Philly. I think Detroit would be a great time to throw in that wrinkle to the offense. Again, a long shot, but an intriguing one.

At the beginning of the season i kind of wanted that as well, but we are transforming into more of a downfield passing offense (not deep ball), but it seems like we are moving a bit away from the dump-offs to the running backs since our nice win streak.

 

[Haley]

It's obviously a longshot, but I kind of wish that we'd see the Pats use both Vereen and James White against the Lions. There were a lot of reports that they were experimenting with using 2 backs out of the backfield last spring - the kind of thing Chip Kelly does a lot of with Philly. I think Detroit would be a great time to throw in that wrinkle to the offense. Again, a long shot, but an intriguing one.

I would love this if he is ready. I really like the RB by committee style. It keeps guys fresh and let's them watch someone else so they can learn from them while still giving everyone some touches. No one gets to be a prima donna superstar and no one is left out in the cold.

 

[ashley]

I would expect a big game from our receivers, Gronk and Vereen. Against that front, it's going to be difficult to run. I think this is a game where we may go up tempo to the no huddle and tire out that defensive front.
I think we also take advantage of Ihedigbo who as we all saw here, is not a very good safety, kind of like Sergio Brown. lol

 

[dales804]

20-30 points. I think this will be a close game. That defense is very tough. They've been worse against the pass recently and just stuff the run (68.8 YPG). As always, the o-line needs to have a good game. Don't want that idiot Suh having a shot at Brady.

I hope the Patriots keep trying to run the ball and don't just throw it 50+ times if they're not gaining good yardage on the ground. Have to at least keep the defense honest and somewhat respect the run.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would love this if he is ready. I really like the RB by committee style. It keeps guys fresh and let's them watch someone else so they can learn from them while still giving everyone some touches. No one gets to be a prima donna superstar and no one is left out in the cold.

It would also add another wrinkle to an incredibly diverse offense:

- Spread them out
- 2 TEs
- Smash mouth running
- Play action passing

I think against Detroit it would have the added benefit of wearing out the DL by getting them to chase after RBs. By the 4th quarter they should be softened up.

 

[Kontradiction]

Use the run as a change of pace. Spread them out early and often and let Brady, Gronk, Edelman, and LaFell attack their personnel in the secondary. There should be some very nice YAC opportunities in this baby.

 

[eom]

I'm sick of hearing about all these other teams the pats have to worry about.

this team is finally about where I expected to be going into the year --- I think the pats smoke these assholes

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I hope the Patriots keep trying to run the ball and don't just throw it 50+ times if they're not gaining good yardage on the ground. Have to at least keep the defense honest and somewhat respect the run.

I think they will spread it out early and often..then switch to see if they can get the run game going

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

It'll be interesting to see how Detroit gameplans. Will they be in a nickel / dime and expect to stop the run w/ their DL and a LB or two?

As usual I'd expect the Patriots to do whatever it is the Lions' strategy is weaker against. Hopefully the Patriots individual players can win enough individual matchups, since it doesn't matter what the strategy is if guys can't block or get open.

 

[dales804]

I think they will spread it out early and often..then switch to see if they can get the run game going

Maybe. I don't have a problem spreading it out. I just have an issue with abandoning the run game altogether. Of course it worked back in 2006 in MIN where NE just said screw it and threw it a ton against a very, very good rush defense and kicked their asses. 15 carries to 43 passes in that game.

Hell, Chad Jackson even had a TD that game.

 

[50-yard-line]

Our Pass blocking vs Indy was shaky , at least early on. The run blocking settled things down. Dont think we are going to run much. Huge challenge for the passing game to get time to make the passes. I expect a spread it out ,more no huddle, more vereen type of a plan.

It was only really shaky on the play-action passes.

If the interior OL can hold up against Suh and company, the Pats should light the Lions up pretty well. Detroit is a GOOD team, but I still don't see them at an elite level. Honestly, when you look at who they've played and WHEN they've played them, it looks like Miami is the best team they've beaten. And htey won that game at home and really had no business winning that game at all.

The Patriots should beat them.

 

[SVN]

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...592/patriots-lions-through-a-stats-based-lens

1. The game within the game: Lions' four-man rush vs. Brady. Teams that put Brady under pressure (sacked, under duress or hit while throwing) on more than one-quarter of his dropbacks when using a standard four-man pass rush are 2-2 this season. Teams that put Brady under pressure on one-quarter of his dropbacks or fewer using a standard rush are 0-6.

Lions' four-man pass rush
Opponents QBR: 39.2 (first in NFL)
TD-INT differential: minus-4 (second in NFL)
TD percentage: 2.3 (second in NFL)
Pressure percentage: 25.9 (fifth in NFL)

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I want the ball out of #12's hands early, i want that pass rush neutralized, bring in another blocker for those LaFell and/or Dobson routes...we need to get out of this game healthy more than we need to run the risk of hitting some big plays...

 

[Oswlek]

Since I have little expectation NE will lean on the run, I thought I'd break down Detriot's pass D a little. I've gone through and totaled the average pass O they've faced and compared it to their pass D. Mathematicians among you will bristle because, since I don't have time to weight it by pass attempts, I'm averaging averages. A serious no-no, but it's going to have to do for now.

Yards per attempt
Offense 7.0 - Detroit D 6.9

Passer rating
Offense 88.5 - Detroit D 80.8

Sacks
Offense 23.9 - Detroit D 26

Picks
Offense 8.5 - Detroit D 12

Completion %
Offense 62.3 - Detroit D 63.6

Passing TDs
Offense 16.4 - Detroit D 12

Sacks, comp% and YPA are all in line with the opponent's figures, meaning that Detroit's D comes off as average in those categories. The PR discrepancy comes down to a higher interception rate and fewer passing TDs.

Interestingly, roughly 30% of the gap between average and allowed passing TDs and passer rating is attributable to the Green Bay game. If that was a legitimately great performance, then Detroit can give NE some problems, even in the passing game. If it was more due to timing, then there is plenty of reason to think NE will have a good deal of success throwing on Detroit's secondary.

FWIW, DVOA considers Detroit the #3 pass defense. This figure includes the Green Bay game, of course, but it does account for a lot of what I've broken down.