Defensive Balance

[mayoclinic]

Even Ebner to IR shouldn't be considered a likely move, considering that NE waited on him this long.

That was certainly my take on it. Finger injuries are seldom season-threatening this early, and BB has shown in the past that he is willing to be patient for Ebner.

 

[mayoclinic]

A few thoughts..

I'll be interested to see who goes when Siliga comes back. Depending on how he plays, Branch may be the likely candidate.

I'm assuming that Castillo will be playing ST, backup/cover LB and potentially a SS in the "big nickel" package. IMO I think Ebner's roster status will be tied to how well Castillo plays. Maybe Chris White?

Wild card is Chandler Jones. If he make it back, Ayers seems like the odd man out..OR if he plays well they IR Moore or Siliga.

Chandler Jones is not on IR, so he is taking a roster spot, and subsequently there is no roster spot that needs to be freed up when he returns. The Pats obviously expect him back, or they would have IR'd him (though things can change, as with Tommy Kelly last year).

I think Branch will either thrive or flame out. If the latter, he's certainly a candidate to be cut at any time. If he puts in the work and provides a veteran run stuffing presence, then I doubt he'll be cut. JMHO.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree completely, BB is morphing this D into an indescribable one that can fit a variety of situations. He has a lot of pieces he can mix and match to adapt to specific defensive situations...

The only concern is the absence of a Defensive QB to implement all of this, I suspect with all of these pieces the D will become more and more sophisticated as they year goes on, need on the field guys who understand all of this.

It's fun to watch this defense evolve. Not that there haven't been some glitches and growing pains, but the general evolution looks promising. Mayo was clearly the defensive QB. McCourty certainly plays that role for the secondary. Ninkovich and Hightower both look to have some of that ability as well.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Chandler Jones is not on IR, so he is taking a roster spot, and subsequently there is no roster spot that needs to be freed up when he returns. The Pats obviously expect him back, or they would have IR'd him (though things can change, as with Tommy Kelly last year).

I wasn't clear. I was referring to playing time that Ayers would lose w/ Jones potentially returning. The fact is that IF Jones makes it back, he will take snaps away from Ayers thus potentially making him expendable. If his hip injury does not improve, they will IR him and gain a roster spot.

I think Branch will either thrive or flame out. If the latter, he's certainly a candidate to be cut at any time. If he puts in the work and provides a veteran run stuffing presence, then I doubt he'll be cut. JMHO.

Agreed on Branch. He has played well at other places so I am hopeful that he can contribute here.

 

[mayoclinic]

I wasn't clear. I was referring to playing time that Ayers would lose w/ Jones potentially returning. The fact is that IF Jones makes it back, he will take snaps away from Ayers thus potentially making him expendable. If his hip injury does not improve, they will IR him and gain a roster spot.

I'm not too worried about defensive snap counts at this point. If Jones is healthy he's clearly a 3 down player. We certainly don't have to worry about him playing 97.1% of the defensive snaps this year. But I think that Ayers will have a role - probably multiple roles - as long as he plays well. Finding room for more guys who are playing well is a good problem to have.

Agreed on Branch. He has played well at other places so I am hopeful that he can contribute here.

I'm not so much worried about a dropoff in Branch's play, as about his effort and toughness. He's had a "soft" label all his career, and he has been solid but not spectacular in part because of that. The talent is there, and I don't think he's lost all that much. He could be a stud, or he could be a "poor man's Haynesworth". I'm cautiously optimistic, but I do see a scenario where BB doesn't like what he sees.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think Branch will either thrive or flame out. If the latter, he's certainly a candidate to be cut at any time. If he puts in the work and provides a veteran run stuffing presence, then I doubt he'll be cut. JMHO.

The good thing is Siliga isn't far away. I believe he can return to practice next week (if healthy) and can return to games after the Detroit game. Assuming he's healthy, we'll have a 3 (4 including the bye) week look at Branch. Presumably, barring further injury we will decide between Walker and Branch when the time comes.

 

[mayoclinic]

According to Reiss the Pats were in sub for 90% of the snaps against the Bears (63/70):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4771257/sub-defense-stats-spike-for-patriots

That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos.

 

[mgteich]

Is it 11 or 12?

We have 6 corners and 6 safeties. We have 11 positions defensive backs. Don Jones only plays special teams.

So, when comparing to past years, we have 12 defensive backs.

 

[mgteich]

Considering how often we've been down to the Earthwind Morelands and Hank Poteats -- not to mention slot receivers playing CB -- I'm reassured by our great DB depth this year.

When Marquice Cole got cut I figured DB depth was going to be pretty good, and so far that's held up. That said, it's early in the season, so depth hasn't really been tested, and Cole's still on the street, so perhaps that wasn't a good indicator ...

Yes, we should celebrate our situation with regard to cornerback.

However, please discuss how many safeties we need, GIVEN that we have 6 corners that can play. For me, having 6 corners and 4 safeties is a fine situation. I would note that we considered who would be cut when Browner was activated, most thought that the player cut would be Butler or a safety. Surely, we needed a 14th player in the defensive front seven more than a 12th defensive back.
======
As we all seem to agree, there is a tradeoff with regard to keep extra front seven depth and keeping an addition DB. Belichick has chosen to have 11 front seven position players plus Chanadler Jones and Chris White (who never plays defense).

Belichick has made this work by finding street free agents and making trades when there are injuries (Walker, Ayers, Casillas and Branch). This strategy doesn't work as well as time goes forward. Beichick also has has some front seven depth on the Practice Squad (Skinner, Vellano and Fleming).

 

[The Brandon Five]

I'm not too worried about defensive snap counts at this point. If Jones is healthy he's clearly a 3 down player. We certainly don't have to worry about him playing 97.1% of the defensive snaps this year. But I think that Ayers will have a role - probably multiple roles - as long as he plays well. Finding room for more guys who are playing well is a good problem to have.



I'm not so much worried about a dropoff in Branch's play, as about his effort and toughness. He's had a "soft" label all his career, and he has been solid but not spectacular in part because of that. The talent is there, and I don't think he's lost all that much. He could be a stud, or he could be a "poor man's Haynesworth". I'm cautiously optimistic, but I do see a scenario where BB doesn't like what he sees.

Branch not at practice today.

 

[Fencer]

However, please discuss how many safeties we need, GIVEN that we have 6 corners that can play. For me, having 6 corners and 4 safeties is a fine situation.

That's a fair challenge.

Part of the question is which of the CBs could be usefully converted to safety, temporarily or otherwise.

• Revis -- terrible use of his talents.
• Browner -- terrible use of his talents, although he has a little bit of negative effect on the need for safeties due to his suitability for covering TEs.
• Dennard -- has trouble staying on the field as a CB. Shouldn't even try a more violent position.
• Arrington -- would seem to be a good fit at safety, but in several years hasn't been used that way that I can recall.
• Ryan -- presumably a decent fit at safety.
• Butler -- I'm guessing that learning one position is enough of a challenge for him this season.

Let me stop there and ask what you think about Arrington, Ryan or another CB playing S if needed, and why you think that.

 

[supafly]

That's a fair challenge.

Part of the question is which of the CBs could be usefully converted to safety, temporarily or otherwise.

• Revis -- terrible use of his talents.
• Browner -- terrible use of his talents, although he has a little bit of negative effect on the need for safeties due to his suitability for covering TEs.
• Dennard -- has trouble staying on the field as a CB. Shouldn't even try a more violent position.
• Arrington -- would seem to be a good fit at safety, but in several years hasn't been used that way that I can recall.
• Ryan -- presumably a decent fit at safety.
• Butler -- I'm guessing that learning one position is enough of a challenge for him this season.

Let me stop there and ask what you think about Arrington, Ryan or another CB playing S if needed, and why you think that.

I would assume that one of Arrington (who has been used there before) or Ryan (ditto) will see snaps at the position of "safety," this week. Of course they are still playing the role of CB in some aspect as well.

If you're talking about a permanent move from either Arrington or Ryan, I don't see it myself, at least not under the current circumstances anyway. There weren't many hints of it all summer long in TC, and that's a pretty fair place to start. Emergency situations can happen, as we've seen. If that were the case, then it would be much more likely to happen.

 

[Ring 6]

According to Reiss the Pats were in sub for 90% of the snaps against the Bears (63/70):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4771257/sub-defense-stats-spike-for-patriots

That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos.

And maybe forever.
Well this is bb so almost never until he dusts off a game plan where we play a team from base to confuse them.

 

[Ring 6]

I would assume that one of Arrington (who has been used there before) or Ryan (ditto) will see snaps at the position of "safety," this week. Of course they are still playing the role of CB in some aspect as well.

If you're talking about a permanent move from either Arrington or Ryan, I don't see it myself, at least not under the current circumstances anyway. There weren't many hints of it all summer long in TC, and that's a pretty fair place to start. Emergency situations can happen, as we've seen. If that were the case, then it would be much more likely to happen.

I would expect to see 4 corners on the firld playing man in passing situations. Maybe 5 on 3rd and long.

 

[Ring 6]

We have 6 corners and 6 safeties. We have 11 positions defensive backs. Don Jones only plays special teams.

So, when comparing to past years, we have 12 defensive backs.

Ebner really doesn't count right now because he cannot play. When he can the safety spot may lose a player. Right now every safety besides ebner is active and has a role. Why would we cut one in favor of a guy at a different position who will be inactive?

 

[mgteich]

Ebner really doesn't count right now because he cannot play. When he can the safety spot may lose a player. Right now every safety besides ebner is active and has a role. Why would we cut one in favor of a guy at a different position who will be inactive?

I agree with your analysis. Ebner doesn't count. If and when, he comes back, someone will likely go.

I agree that no one should be cut for an inactive, although I suspect that happened to Skinner.

Finally, it takes three players to play S2 in our offense. That's quite a lot. Last year, Gregory played S2, unless he was injured. Belichick has made it work, but 3 players for one position seems a lot.

 

[supafly]

I agree that no one should be cut for an inactive, although I suspect that happened to Skinner.

I'm guessing that Skinner's case may have been a bit different though, due to the fact that the team brought in 2 LBs last week. It was more of a replacement move.

I wouldn't assume that any of us would expect a swap at the positions of CB/S.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with your analysis. Ebner doesn't count. If and when, he comes back, someone will likely go.

I agree that no one should be cut for an inactive, although I suspect that happened to Skinner.

Finally, it takes three players to play S2 in our offense. That's quite a lot. Last year, Gregory played S2, unless he was injured. Belichick has made it work, but 3 players for one position seems a lot.

Those players are active because they contribute on special teams, and because they have varied skillsets so play different roles in different sub packages. Not sure whats wrong with that.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm guessing that Skinner's case may have been a bit different though, due to the fact that the team brought in 2 LBs last week. It was more of a replacement move.

Yeah, I'm not sure why mg has brought up Skinner's release a few times. Had he been cut when Casillas came over and it was Barker for Branch would that make more sense? Or at least more linear?

 

[mgteich]

I wouldn't assume that any of us would expect a swap at the positions of CB/S.

Agreed.

I think that the swapping was brought up again partly because I suggested that we only needed 4 safeties.
I have always thought that at least one of our cor

Yeah, I'm not sure why mg has brought up Skinner's release a few times. Had he been cut when Casillas came over and it was Barker for Branch would that make more sense? Or at least more linear?

I was under the impression that the patriots were lacking in depth at LB throughout this season, even with Mayo and Skinner on the roster. Everyone seemed to agree that Mayo would be very difficult to replace and more than one player would fill the roles that he played.

When we added Ayers and Casillas, and still had Skinner, I was happy that we now had a good position with regard to LB depth. I prefer 5 LB's to 4, especially when 2 are new to the system.

Apparently, Belichick disagrees. Four is plenty.

I don't know why it is so reasonable to think that we might have 5 linebackers on the team who can actually play linebacker, and 3 who have been on the team more than a week.

That being said, Skinner is on the Practice Squad and all is well.