Defensive Balance

[mgteich]

A STRANGE BALANCE
7 DL's (including Chandler Jones) I think that we are 2 players short.
5 LB's (finally!)
11 defensive backs (6 corners and 5 safeties)
2 STO players (Don Jones and White)
============================
We are still short a DE (even with Easley as a convert).
At DT, we have the 3 biggies with no backups except on the Practice Squad. Branch might help.
2 STO's does not seem excessive for Belichick. Jones looks pretty good.
Even in a passing league, 11 position defensive backs is a lot.
============================
What seems likely is that there will be transactions before the first game after the bye.
============================
The look has changed in the past few weeks. We now seem to have sufficient LB backups, especially since a safety can take the role of a coverage LB if need be. Belichick seems to have made safety by committee work. Whether we can continue to keep 5 position safeties remains to be seen. I am one that questions the availability of Ebner, although he certainly is a special teams favorite.

 

[supafly]

I like the secondary situation myself, especially at the position of CB. I appreciate the fact that Belichick is holding onto 6 CBs not just now, but for next year + the future. It's simply too important of a position to cut corners with when you have talented players such as Malcolm Butler at the bottom of your depth chart.

I really hope that we end up signing Alan Branch though. I think that will help greatly, along with the expected return of Siligia in the next couple of games.

 

[Fencer]

General roster count:

K/P/LS -- 3 as always

QB -- 2
WR -- 6 counting Slater
TE -- 3
RB/FB -- 5
OL -- 9

Plus what you said on defense.

Absent real injuries, it's hard to see RB/FB or WR getting trimmed in favor of DB. So if you're suggesting that Ebner could be IRed even in the expectation that he'd be capable of coming back before January, you probably have a point. On the other hand, White seems pretty expendable as well.

 

[Fencer]

And by the way -- with no assurance of Revis returning, I would be reluctant to cut a CB.

Note also the Reiss post in which he suggests that Dennard and Arrington have each been rested a game to keep them fresh for Denver. (Presumably this includes healing up the sort of minor injuries that lots of players have.) BB likes his DB depth.

 

[supafly]

And by the way -- with no assurance of Revis returning, I would be reluctant to cut a CB.

Note also the Reiss post in which he suggests that Dennard and Arrington have each been rested a game to keep them fresh for Denver. (Presumably this includes healing up the sort of minor injuries that lots of players have.) BB likes his DB depth.

I couldn't agree with you more. I think keeping a guy like Butler is very important for next year. I certainly hope that he stays.

Obviously, we all hope that Revis is re-upped as well, but like you said--there's certainly no guarantee.

 

[AzPatsFan]

A STRANGE BALANCE
7 DL's (including Chandler Jones) I think that we are 2 players short.
5 LB's (finally!)
11 defensive backs (6 corners and 5 safeties)
2 STO players (Don Jones and White)
============================
We are still short a DE (even with Easley as a convert).
At DT, we have the 3 biggies with no backups except on the Practice Squad. Branch might help.
2 STO's does not seem excessive for Belichick. Jones looks pretty good.
Even in a passing league, 11 position defensive backs is a lot.
============================
What seems likely is that there will be transactions before the first game after the bye.
============================
The look has changed in the past few weeks. We now seem to have sufficient LB backups, especially since a safety can take the role of a coverage LB if need be. Belichick seems to have made safety by committee work. Whether we can continue to keep 5 position safeties remains to be seen. I am one that questions the availability of Ebner, although he certainly is a special teams favorite.

MGTeich,

Isn't it wonderful to see a true genius, the Maestro at work. He is ceaselessly rebuilding his Team, even in the middle of the season.

Exiting Training camp I felt he needed the better part of another Draft to finish the Defense; and perhaps the better part of another Draft to finish the Offense.

Smith proved a veteran failure so he still needed a Third starting quality DE.

He had Chandler Jones and heady Ninko, but had to rely on late draft picks for the remaining DEs in Buchannan, Moore and Bequette. None of them is a certain to be good starting quality DE.

With Vince, but no certain high pick Biggie to groom behind Wilfork and Sealver he had two Biggies; and Easley and Chris Jones gave him two penetratng DTs. If Alan Branch can ever get in shape, he has the talent to be the proven high quality, Biggie understudy to Vince along with Sealver.

He knows that he has Vince, Sealver, Casey and Alan as Big Bodies, sooner or later, but probably worked into the rotation by the Playoffs. Together with Hightower or a PS ILB will suitably stifle the Run this Playoff season.

But in the long view the DL still has a couple of holes.

At LB Bill finally had the three high pick starting quality LBs that he wanted. But no depth to speak of other than a shift of Ninko back to LB. He has traded twice for two young experienced starting quality LBs,Ayers and Cassilas provide him his #4 and #6 LBs. Akeem is a true starter and Cassillas is the spot starter, and ST LB who can actually play some regular Defense as a coverage LB/S hybrid.

Next Draft gets simple on Defense if no DE emerges. Draft a DE high.

 

[ausbacker]

MGTeich,

Isn't it wonderful to see a true genius, the Maestro at work. He is ceaselessly rebuilding his Team, even in the middle of the season.

Exiting Training camp I felt he needed the better part of another Draft to finish the Defense; and perhaps the better part of another Draft to finish the Offense.

Smith proved a veteran failure so he still needed a Third starting quality DE.

He had Chandler Jones and heady Ninko, but had to rely on late draft picks for the remaining DEs in Buchannan, Moore and Bequette. None of them is a certain to be good starting quality DE.

With Vince, but no certain high pick Biggie to groom behind Wilfork and Sealver he had two Biggies; and Easley and Chris Jones gave him two penetratng DTs. If Alan Branch can ever get in shape, he has the talent to be the proven high quality, Biggie understudy to Vince along with Sealver.

He knows that he has Vince, Sealver, Casey and Alan as Big Bodies, sooner or later, but probably worked into the rotation by the Playoffs. Together with Hightower or a PS ILB will suitably stifle the Run this Playoff season.

But in the long view the DL still has a couple of holes.

At LB Bill finally had the three high pick starting quality LBs that he wanted. But no depth to speak of other than a shift of Ninko back to LB. He has traded twice for two young experienced starting quality LBs,Ayers and Cassilas provide him his #4 and #6 LBs. Akeem is a true starter and Cassillas is the spot starter, and ST LB who can actually play some regular Defense as a coverage LB/S hybrid.

Next Draft gets simple on Defense if no DE emerges. Draft a DE high.

If this comes to fruition, I'm not particularly bothered if the Patriots have a "weak" pass rush. If there's a stone wall that necessitates teams to pass on New England, given the improvement in our Secondary, that should be viewed as a win for the Patriots.

Stopping the run is going to go a long way to determining the success of the D.

 

[AzPatsFan]

On Offense the changes on the OL have come down to starting Stork and ending the big DT crushing of game but undesized Wendell. Shifting Connolly to LG and Wendell to RG has helped. Wendell can use his good movement abilities to get to the second level on runs; and has a better shot of handleing a big DT without being walked back into Brady at RG.

He still is limited as a drive blocker though. At LG Captain Connolly is more useful than at C, but he is still going on 33 and will need replacement.

I could see another Draft of OL types as G/T types with size and swing tackle ability. The skill position at RB might be augmented in the next draft in lieu of resigning one or both of Ridley and/or Vereen is more feasible.

The receivers are talented, deep and need no augmentation.

The overall point is that this Team is almost complete, including extraordinary depth, and still young, and under the CAP. Only Captain Vince and Captain Dan are over 30, aside from QB Brady. It could use only a few high picks. So we may see a trade-up strategy being used once again.

Mean while I'll leave with a provocative thought. The Patriot team is rising and getting better, while the Bronco squad peaked in 2013, and is declining.

 

[Fencer]

As usual, there will likely be more positions that could benefit from a high pick than there will be high picks -- DE/OLB and OG as noted above, plus DT as well, where everybody is either aged or JAGgish. Plus maybe the secondary, depending upon who is re-signed.

 

[mayoclinic]

A STRANGE BALANCE
7 DL's (including Chandler Jones) I think that we are 2 players short.
5 LB's (finally!)
11 defensive backs (6 corners and 5 safeties)
2 STO players (Don Jones and White)
============================
We are still short a DE (even with Easley as a convert).
At DT, we have the 3 biggies with no backups except on the Practice Squad. Branch might help.
2 STO's does not seem excessive for Belichick. Jones looks pretty good.
Even in a passing league, 11 position defensive backs is a lot.
============================
What seems likely is that there will be transactions before the first game after the bye.
============================
The look has changed in the past few weeks. We now seem to have sufficient LB backups, especially since a safety can take the role of a coverage LB if need be. Belichick seems to have made safety by committee work. Whether we can continue to keep 5 position safeties remains to be seen. I am one that questions the availability of Ebner, although he certainly is a special teams favorite.

A couple of thoughts:

1. If the Pats sign Alan Branch, then the balance gets bigger. Wilfork, Branch, Easley, Chris Jones, Walker and Siliga (when he's back) can play inside. I'm still hoping that Branch is in the mix.

2. I hope this says something about the Pats' expectations for Chandler Jones coming back.

3. I think these moves suggest that Andy Johnson is right about the "base is dead". BB is focusing on playing the game out of sub, and focusing on a defense that excels in space.

4. Right now we have a lot of hybrid players/"tweeners":

[- Chandler Jones - can play 4-3 DE, 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB, and 4-3 DT in some packages]
- Dominique Easley - can play 4-3 DT, 4-3 NT, 3-4 DE, and 4-3 DE
- Rob Ninkovich - can play DE, OLB or MLB
- Dont'a Hightower - can play DE, OLB or MLB
- Jamie Collins - can play DE, OLB or MLB, and probably as a LB/S
- Akeem Ayers - can play DE or OLB
- Pat Chung - LB/S
- Jonathan Casillas - LB/S
- Nate Ebner - LB/S
- Devin McCourty - CB/S
- Logan Ryan - CB/S

BB can create a lot of interesting match ups with those guys.

5. BB is the master of in-season adjustments and roster moves. With Mayo out and Chandler Jones hobbled, he has made 2 moves that have added versatility to the defense, and he may have a 3rd in the works with Branch, all for extremely minimal cost.

I would expect one more DL (hopefully Branch) with the return of Jones and Siliga. I agree we are a tad light there. But it seems clear that BB's focus wasn't on a run-stuffing MLB like Spikes, whose loss many have bemoaned in the past few weeks.

There is a lot of room for roster manipulation on the defense. Wilson, Harmon and White are all expendable, especially if Casillas excels on STs. I don't think BB is done tweaking the defense yet.

 

[Oswlek]

Stopping the run is going to go a long way to determining the success of the D.

I suspect Bill isn't too bothered by the run D we saw against Chicago, or even all that interested in upgrading it if it comes at the expense of pass defense. It is so hard to win a game nowadays simply running the ball and virtually every AFC threat is a passing team.

Not that we can accept another performance like against the Jets, but mildly below average? Bill will take it.

 

[ausbacker]

I suspect Bill isn't too bothered by the run D we saw against Chicago, or even all that interested in upgrading it if it comes at the expense of pass defense. It is so hard to win a game nowadays simply running the ball and virtually every AFC threat is a passing team.

Not that we can accept another performance like against the Jets, but mildly below average? Bill will take it.

I'd prefer that teams had trouble passing and running on the Patriots D but I'm a selfish bastard so eh!

 

[varjao]

In terms of offense, trying to project the current roster in a game on Denver for the AFC championship just like last year when we were very short of receivers, there is the addition of Laffel and Wright, and a possibly healthy Gronk. Also a better line.

Definitely better, but I think we could make use of just another piece. I don't expect Amendola or Dobson play a big role, let's see what kind of Edelman we will have then. Last year was a tragedy, when Brady threw a pass to Slater I realize we had no shot.

 

[Kontradiction]

I suspect Bill isn't too bothered by the run D we saw against Chicago, or even all that interested in upgrading it if it comes at the expense of pass defense. It is so hard to win a game nowadays simply running the ball and virtually every AFC threat is a passing team.

Not that we can accept another performance like against the Jets, but mildly below average? Bill will take it.

Maybe it's just me being old fashioned, but I would prefer a defense that can stop both. I have a sneaking suspicion Bill would too. The teams all coming out of the AFC are passing teams. But the cream of the crop (thus far) in the NFC? Not so much.

 

[mayoclinic]

A couple of thoughts:

1. If the Pats sign Alan Branch, then the balance gets bigger. Wilfork, Branch, Easley, Chris Jones, Walker and Siliga (when he's back) can play inside. I'm still hoping that Branch is in the mix.

2. I hope this says something about the Pats' expectations for Chandler Jones coming back.

3. I think these moves suggest that Andy Johnson is right about the "base is dead". BB is focusing on playing the game out of sub, and focusing on a defense that excels in space.

4. Right now we have a lot of hybrid players/"tweeners":

[- Chandler Jones - can play 4-3 DE, 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB, and 4-3 DT in some packages]
- Dominique Easley - can play 4-3 DT, 4-3 NT, 3-4 DE, and 4-3 DE
- Rob Ninkovich - can play DE, OLB or MLB
- Dont'a Hightower - can play DE, OLB or MLB
- Jamie Collins - can play DE, OLB or MLB, and probably as a LB/S
- Akeem Ayers - can play DE or OLB
- Pat Chung - LB/S
- Jonathan Casillas - LB/S
- Nate Ebner - LB/S
- Devin McCourty - CB/S
- Logan Ryan - CB/S

BB can create a lot of interesting match ups with those guys.

5. BB is the master of in-season adjustments and roster moves. With Mayo out and Chandler Jones hobbled, he has made 2 moves that have added versatility to the defense, and he may have a 3rd in the works with Branch, all for extremely minimal cost.

I would expect one more DL (hopefully Branch) with the return of Jones and Siliga. I agree we are a tad light there. But it seems clear that BB's focus wasn't on a run-stuffing MLB like Spikes, whose loss many have bemoaned in the past few weeks.

There is a lot of room for roster manipulation on the defense. Wilson, Harmon and White are all expendable, especially if Casillas excels on STs. I don't think BB is done tweaking the defense yet.

Branch reportedly signed, as projected.

http://nesn.com/2014/10/report-alan-branch-finally-signs-with-patriots-will-practice-wednesday/

Can play DE in a 3-4 or 4-3 Under, or DT. Good pickup.

Branch, Casillas and Ayers - nice infusion of talent to give a boost for the second half of the season, and hopefully beyond.

 

[mgteich]

General roster count:

K/P/LS -- 3 as always

QB -- 2
WR -- 6 counting Slater
TE -- 3
RB/FB -- 5
OL -- 9

Plus what you said on defense.

Absent real injuries, it's hard to see RB/FB or WR getting trimmed in favor of DB. So if you're suggesting that Ebner could be IRed even in the expectation that he'd be capable of coming back before January, you probably have a point. On the other hand, White seems pretty expendable as well.

I was just exploring the strange balance. Some of the posters think that it perfectly normal to have 12 defensive backs on the roster. In a pass-happy NFL. I'm fine with 6 corners and 4 safeties, with the 4th safety playing primarily special teams. Have we ever carried 12 defensive backs?

Belichick is doing great with filling for injuries with street free agents and trades. He is the master at this: now Walker, Ayers, Casillas and Branch to try to fill in for the losses of Siliga, Jones, Mayo and Buchanan.
=========
We'll see soon where Belichick cuts. We never know. Ebner seems the most likely to me. We have added special teamers. Jones has been very, very good. We carry the following primarily for special teams: Slater, Bolden, Ebner, Jones and White. Ebner did play some dime/LB when before Dennard and browner came back, and before we signed Ayers and Casillas. Considering that Arrington and Wilson can also play that role, Ebner is by no means really needed as a dime back or LB.

If Ebner is to stay, it is as a special teamer.

And I agree that White has shown little. However, Bolden has shown less, and White is a top draft choice.
Bolden could be gone for awhile instead of Ebner. Of course, the third choice is Skinner, but that seems a step backward.

 

[mayoclinic]

We'll see soon where Belichick cuts. We never know. Ebner seems the most likely to me. We have added special teamers. Jones has been very, very good. We carry the following primarily for special teams: Slater, Bolden, Ebner, Jones and White. Ebner did play some dime/LB when before Dennard and browner came back, and before we signed Ayers and Casillas. Considering that Arrington and Wilson can also play that role, Ebner is by no means really needed as a dime back or LB.

If Ebner is to stay, it is as a special teamer.

I'm afraid I can't agree with you on this. I think BB views Ebner as a very important piece, both on STs and as a dime LB/S and potentially more. I think there are many, many players who would be cut before Ebner:

Skinner (already cut)
Chris White
Don Jones
Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Malcolm Butler

Its JMHO, but I personally think the chance of Ebner being cut is close to zero. IR is a different matter entirely, if BB thinks he will be out for a while, but I doubt that is the case.

 

[Urgent]

A STRANGE BALANCE

5 LB's (finally!)

...not so fast.

 

[Urgent]

In a pass-happy NFL. I'm fine with 6 corners and 4 safeties, with the 4th safety playing primarily special teams. Have we ever carried 12 defensive backs?

Start of the year roster
2013 - 5 CB, 5 S
2012 - 6 CB, 4 S
2011 - 5 CB, 4 S
2010 - 5 CB, 4 S
2009 - 5 CB, 5 S (plus Slater, who was originally listed as a S)
2008 - 5 CB, 4 S
2007 - 4 CB, 7 S
2006 - 5 CB, 4 S
2005 - 6 CB, 4 S
2004 - 4 CB, 4 S

Past six years, the roster has always varied between nine and 10 defensive backs. Over the past 10 years, the low is eight and the high, 2007, is 11.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm afraid I can't agree with you on this. I think BB views Ebner as a very important piece, both on STs and as a dime LB/S and potentially more. I think there are many, many players who would be cut before Ebner:

Skinner (already cut)
Chris White
Don Jones
Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Malcolm Butler

Its JMHO, but I personally think the chance of Ebner being cut is close to zero. IR is a different matter entirely, if BB thinks he will be out for a while, but I doubt that is the case.

Absolutely. Ebs will not be cut. Period. And if he was going to be IR'd, he would have already.