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It was a flat-out dreadful stretch, an awful waste of opportunity, and doubtless keeps Belichick awake at night. And IMO it's exactly the right way to assess drafts, which is in the aggregate: Overall, are you getting good return on your draft capital?

What drives me crazy is the "I knew better" crowd on individual picks. It's simple logic that IF a pick has already proven to be a total dud, then odds are that whoever else you wanted instead will probably have been a better choice! But do you actually assess your total record? (There are posters here who go around shouting Tavon Wilson's name at every opportunity, while conveniently forgetting how much they railed against Sebastian Vollmer, did cartwheels over Darius Butler, and proclaimed the entire 2013 draft class a travesty.)

Ehh....

There were many here talking critically about the Patriots moves as the years went on, and those who did were getting savaged by the White Knights of the Kraftdom. Hell, I was on the other side of a lot of those arguments until the results from the 2008 offseason started to come in. Pointing out the problems of the team doesn't come with any requisite "Here's what I would have done!".
 
2006's draft looked strong at the start. Maroney was very good as a rookie. Jackson was injured, so the extent of his bustdom to come was unknown, and there was still hope. Although I was not a big fan of his, Dave Thomas showed the ability to play in the league, when healthy (He ended up lasting 7 years in the NFL). They got Gostkowski. O'Callahan showed some potential. Mincey didn't fit the system, but he showed enough that he hung on in the league and played until 2013. Andrews was a solid STer, and Smith was at least able to hang on as a rotational backup.

Over time, though, that draft crashed and burned. Looking back on it, it was a harbinger.

The 2007 draft was a disaster, outside of Meriweather, but that was expected to be a weaker draft given the lack of high picks for the Patriots, and it was offset by the two 'draft' trades that netted Welker and Moss.

2008 is where it just flat-out hit the skids.
 
2006's draft looked strong at the start. Maroney was very good as a rookie. Jackson was injured, so the extent of his bustdom to come was unknown, and there was still hope. Although I was not a big fan of his, Dave Thomas showed the ability to play in the league, when healthy (He ended up lasting 7 years in the NFL). They got Gostkowski. O'Callahan showed some potential. Mincey didn't fit the system, but he showed enough that he hung on in the league and played until 2013. Andrews was a solid STer, and Smith was at least able to hang on as a rotational backup.

Over time, though, that draft crashed and burned. Looking back on it, it was a harbinger.

The 2007 draft was a disaster, outside of Meriweather, but that was expected to be a weaker draft given the lack of high picks for the Patriots, and it was offset by the two 'draft' trades that netted Welker and Moss.

2008 is where it just flat-out hit the skids.

Belichick makes mistakes.. but the Draft is virtually defined by hits and misses and sometimes those come in groupings.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...d/threads/no-team-can-beat-the-draft.1110049/

once again, there’s virtually no relationship between how well a GM drafts, relative to average, from one year to the next.

Maybe Belichick is evaluating talent differently now than he was a few years ago (and maybe rightfully so) but the article would suggest that these bad drafts happen to even the best drafting gms.
 
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These are all draft selection made during the Belichick era. He seems to go through streaks of successful years and then lackluster years.

2014

Dominique Easley-DT
Jimmy Garoppolo-QB
Bryan Stork-C
James White-RB
Cameron Fleming-OT
Jon Halapio-OG
Zach Moore-DE
Jemea Thomas-CB
Jeremy Gallon-WR
2013
Jamie Collins-LB
Aaron Dobson-WR
Logan Ryan-DB
Duron Harmon-DB
Josh Boyce-WR
Michael Buchanan-DE
Steve Beauharnais-LB
2012
Chandler Jones-DE
Dont'a Hightower-LB
Tavon Wilson-FS
Jake Bequette-DE
Nate Ebner-DB
Alfonzo Dennard-DB
Jeremy Ebert-WR
2011
Nate Solder-OL
Ras-I Dowling-DB
Shane Vereen-RB
Stevan Ridley-RB
Ryan Mallett-QB
Marcus Cannon-OL
Lee Smith-TE
Markell Carter-LB
Malcolm Williams-DB
2010
Devin McCourty-DB
Rob Gronkowski-TE
Jermaine Cunningham-LB
Brandon Spikes-LB
Taylor Price-WR
Aaron Hernandez-TE
Zoltan Mesko-P
Ted Larsen-C
Thomas Welch-T
Brandon Deaderick-DE
Kade Weston-DT
Zac Robinson-QB
2009
Patrick Chung-DB
Ron Brace-DT
Darius Butler-DB
Sebastian Vollmer-T
Brandon Tate-WR
Tyrone McKenzie-LB
Rich Ohrnberger-G
George Bussey-T
Jake Ingram-LS
Myron Pryor-DT
Julian Edelman-WR
Darryl Richard-DT
2008
Jerod Mayo-LB
Terrence Wheatley-DB
Shawn Crable-LB
Kevin O'Connell-QB
Jonathan Wilhite-DB
Matt Slater-WR
Bo Ruud-LB
2007
Brandon Meriweather-DB
Kareem Brown-DT
Clint Oldenburg-T
Justin Rogers-LB
Mike Richardson-DB
Justise Hairston-RB
Corey Hilliard-T
Oscar Lua-LB
Mike Elgin-G
2006
Laurence Maroney-RB
Chad Jackson-WR
David Thomas-TE
Garrett Mills-FB
Stephen Gostkowski-K
Ryan O'Callaghan-T
Jeremy Mincey-DE
Dan Stevenson-G
Le Kevin Smith-DT
Willie Andrews-DB
2005
Logan Mankins-G
Ellis Hobbs-DB
Nick Kaczur-T
James Sanders-DB
Ryan Claridge-LB
Matt Cassel-QB
Andy Stokes-TE
2004
Vince Wilfork-NT
Ben Watson-TE
Marquise Hill-DE
Guss Scott-DB
Dexter Reid-DB
Cedric Cobbs-RB
P.K. Sam-WR
Christian Morton-DB
2003
Ty Warren-DE
Eugene Wilson-DB
Bethel Johnson-WR
Dan Klecko-DT
Asante Samuel-DB
Dan Koppen-C
Kliff Kingsbury-QB
Spencer Nead-FB
Tully Banta-Cain-LB
Ethan Kelley-DT
2002
Daniel Graham-TE
Deion Branch-WR
Rohan Davey-QB
Jarvis Green-DE
Antwoine Womack-RB
David Givens-WR
2001
Richard Seymour-DE
Matt Light-T
Brock Williams-DB
Kenyatta Jones-T
Jabari Holloway-TE
Hakim Akbar-LB
Arther Love-TE
Leonard Myers-DB
Owen Pochman-K
T.J. Turner-LB
2000
Adrian Klemm-G
J.R. Redmond-RB
Greg Randall-T
Dave Stachelski-TE
Jeff Marriott-DT
Antwan Harris-DB
Tom Brady-QB
David Nugent-DE
Casey Tisdale-LB
Patrick Pass-FB
 
These are all draft selection made during the Belichick era. He seems to go through streaks of successful years and then lackluster years.

Every GM has ups and downs. What happened in N.E., though, was an all-around dry spell that went from 2006-2009, and a defensive dry spell that went from 2006-2012, with even 2012 being nothing that we can really call particularly impressive to date, given the extra first round pick. Really, unless Hightower really steps it up, or the 2013 and 2014 drafts really pan out, we're looking at 2006-2014 without any really good defensive draft year, and the defensive personnel reflects that.
 
Ehh....

There were many here talking critically about the Patriots moves as the years went on, and those who did were getting savaged by the White Knights of the Kraftdom. Hell, I was on the other side of a lot of those arguments until the results from the 2008 offseason started to come in. Pointing out the problems of the team doesn't come with any requisite "Here's what I would have done!".

Of course, it would be silly to say that you can't criticize any performance if you couldn't personally do better. If that were the case few of us could ever criticize the performance of any player in the NFL, or say a singer's latest album is a dud, etc.

What I was grousing about is the folks who claim they DO know better because they cherry-pick instances where their choice would have been the better one, crow about those instances over and over, and develop convenient amnesia about all the times they were wrong.

If you think about the odds, just about everybody should be able to make a pick or two better than their team every year, so assessing drafts that way doesn't tell you much. Looking back over a full draft year, or preferably multiple years, and seeing a team not get a decent return on its portfolio of picks compared to the rest of the league is a much, much more meaningful criticism.
 
What I was grousing about is the folks who claim they DO know better because they cherry-pick instances where their choice would have been the better one, crow about those instances over and over, and develop convenient amnesia about all the times they were wrong.

You may have a point when it comes to correctly picking out talent. I haven't really looked at most individual posters doing that. I think it's fair to say, though, that quite a few people on this site have been better at spotting the duds than have the Patriots in recent years. That's only news to about 5% of the most rabid homers on this board.
 
It would be impossible to defend their track record over the stretch people have been discussing, my only objection has been to extrapolating that to say that overall they have been a team that draft's poorly, because when you take everything into account they are actually one of the best teams in the league at drafting, and every long term evaluation of the league as a whole has come to that conclusion. Every team misses and the patriots are no exception, but that was a really bad stretch for them.
 
Belichick makes mistakes.. but the Draft is virtually defined by hits and misses and sometimes those come in groupings.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...d/threads/no-team-can-beat-the-draft.1110049/



Maybe Belichick is evaluating talent differently now than he was a few years ago (and maybe rightfully so) but the article would suggest that these bad drafts happen to even the best drafting gms.

No doubt. But when you have to begin rebuilding the defense and you whiff on 18 of 20 selections on that side of the ball, that's really, really bad. There's just no other way to cut it, unfortunately.
 
Ehh....

There were many here talking critically about the Patriots moves as the years went on, and those who did were getting savaged by the White Knights of the Kraftdom. Hell, I was on the other side of a lot of those arguments until the results from the 2008 offseason started to come in. Pointing out the problems of the team doesn't come with any requisite "Here's what I would have done!".


This is complete crap. The people getting criticized were those who said they could do better, not those who simply criticized picks. I know it is really important to you to always be right but if you aren't careful you will need an orthopedist for relentlessly trying to pat yourself on the back.
 
No doubt. But when you have to begin rebuilding the defense and you whiff on 18 of 20 selections on that side of the ball, that's really, really bad. There's just no other way to cut it, unfortunately.

That could be, I've been a bit of a broken record about stating my opinion that the pundits have grossly underestimated the effect of the Patriots drafting so consistently in the worst average position of any team in the NFL for the past 13 years. Namely because it's such an insidious handicap to put your finger on.

I've made this point before, not because I think it's an excuse-all but because I think it has a real and very tangible effect on the Patriots ability to draft.

No other team in the NFL has had such consistent success as the Patriots have had.. none, even the other consistently good teams.

Over 13 years, the Patriots have drafted at an average spot of 26

2014 - 29th
2013 - 29th
2012 - 31th
2011 - 28th
2010 - 22nd
2009 - 26th
2008 - 31st (1st round forfeited)
2007 - 28th
2006 - 21st
2005 - 32nd
2004 - 32nd
2003 - 13th
2002 - 32nd
2001 - 6th

( I know I've made probably made mistakes in the above list, damn trade downs)

If you throw out the Patriots two worst years, it drops their average drafting position down to 28th.

While it doesn't excuse Belichick every mistake.. it certainly indicates to me that Belichick has had to try and draft behind more of a handicap than any other team out there.

And I thank him for that, while acknowledging his dry spells and assigning him his share of blame.. though I'm of the opinion that very few GMs could have done as well as he has -under the same conditions and in the same period of time. No one certainly has been able to duplicate his success.

Let's take Belichick's worst drafting critic and then tell him that he's going to draft in the 25 spot for the next 13 years. Let's see how well he does against his peers. :)
 
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No doubt. But when you have to begin rebuilding the defense and you whiff on 18 of 20 selections on that side of the ball, that's really, really bad. There's just no other way to cut it, unfortunately.


i agree, that was a really bad stretch but people do need to keep in mind that they always pick at the end of every round, with he exception being when they have given things up and moved up because of it, such as getting Mayo for the pick the 49ers used for Staley. I'm not saying that excuses all of the misses but by and large their track record in the first is exceptional, and there's a big difference between picking at the top of each round and the end of it. Imo the NFL has taken their balancing act too far and there should be more of a rotation built in so good teams have a shot at top picks, teams like the browns and Jags and Lions have been stockpiling top young players the Patriots simply don't get a shot at because they are well run and those teams are always failures. After a while that takes a toll but overall the Patriots manage to weather that better than any team in football. belichick is far from perfect at drafting and has had some egregious misses when obvious talent was on the board, but what they are trying to accomplish is much different than what we as fans are doing in looking at players.
 
That could be, I've been a bit of a broken record about stating my opinion that the pundits have grossly underestimated the effect of the Patriots drafting so consistently in the worst average position of any team in the NFL for the past 13 years. Namely because it's such an insidious handicap to put your finger on.

I've made this point before, not because I think it's an excuse-all but because I think it has a real and very tangible effect on the Patriots ability to draft.

No other team in the NFL has had such consistent success as the Patriots have had.. none, even the other consistently good teams.

Over 13 years, the Patriots have drafted at an average spot of 25

2013 - 29th
2012 - 27th
2011 - 28th
2010 - 22nd
2009 - 26th
2008 - 31st (1st round forfeited)
2007 - 28th
2006 - 21st
2005 - 32nd
2004 - 32nd
2003 - 13th
2002 - 32nd
2001 - 6th

If you throw the Patriots two worst years, it drops their average drafting position down to 28th.

While it doesn't excuse Belichick every mistake.. it certainly indicates to me that Belichick has had to try and draft behind more of a handicap than any other team out there.

And I thank him for that, while acknowledging his dry spells, though I'm of the opinion that very few GMs could have done as well, under the same conditions, in the same period of time. No one certainly has been able to duplicate his success.


I agree, I was typing basically the same thing at the same time. And it is every round, and that's what really magnifies it. Every year the difference i see in the top of the first and bottom of it is vast, and the same goes when you look at who they could take at the top of the second, third and fourth, after that the difference grows smaller and it varies with every draft, but being able to stockpile the top players every round is a huge advantage, and the teams who do so consistently and still fail should be denied that opportunity at some point. With the really bad franchises the NFL is just rewarding failure year in and out and that should be corrected. If you pick in the top ten two year in a row and end up there the third you should go to the back of the line for that draft imo. Teams like the Raiders, Jags, Browns, Bills, and the Lions for many years would be much more proactive about getting a good front office and coach if they knew they weren't going to be rewarded for sucking all the time.
 
I've been a bit of a broken record about stating my opinion that the pundits have grossly underestimated the effect of the Patriots drafting so consistently in the worst average position of any team in the NFL for the past 13 years.

I agree 100%, it's an ENORMOUS effect. Look at the Colts, who built their powerhouse teams around high draft picks like Manning, Freeney and James, and whose drafting pretty much fell apart once they stopped getting those premium picks. Or how different the Broncos defense looks without #2 overall pick Von Miller.

To quantify the effect, take a look at the trade value chart. (Before you dismiss the much-maligned chart, the fact is that Jimmy Johnson's creation has done quite a good job of modeling not only trade equivalences, but player value outcomes. If you know of a better numeric estimate, feel free to use it.)

If you pick first in each round your first 3 picks are worth 3,845 points.
If you pick 16th in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,610 points.
If you pick 32nd in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 976 points.

And that's just one year. Think about the ongoing impact on a football team of never having a down year. How about this: over the past half dozen years, Cleveland's average draft position has been 5.5 (2,589 points over 7 rounds). The Patriots' average draft position has been 27.5 (1,216 points). That means that Cleveland essentially gets to draft twice for every one Patriots draft.

There's no question that the Patriots whiffed more than they should have during the "fallow period." But the really amazing thing to me is that teams like Cleveland, St. Louis, Buffalo and Jacksonville can continue to be so weak while drafting so high year after year. On the rare occasion that the Patriots get a chance to pick in the top 20 it has gone very well indeed: Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder.
 
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If you pick first in each round your first 3 picks are worth 3,845 points.
If you pick 16th in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,610 points.
If you pick 32nd in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 976 points.

If you pick 26th* in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,160

That's a real eye-opening way of quantifying just how much of a handicap Belichick is up against year in and year out, thank you for that.

---

And here is a quickly researched list of the Steelers, which is the first team people like to point to as having drafted better than the Patriots while sharing the same level of consistent success.

2014 - 15th
2013 - 17th
2012 - 24th
2011 - 31th
2010 - 18th
2009 - 32th
2008 - 23th
2007 - 15th
2006 - 25th
2005 - 30th
2004 - 11th
2003 - 16th
2002 - 30th
2001 - 19th

The average Drafting Position of the Pittsburgh Steelers comes out to be 21st overall.

If you pick 21st in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,400 points.

The value of picking 21st compared to 26th comes out to be 340 points.. the equivalent of the 56th 2nd round pick... every year.

And even to my mind, 21st vs 26th doesn't seem like that big a deal.. but then I look at where the Steelers drafted year by year and it is obviously in a much better average position than the Patriots.
 
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If you pick 26th* in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,160

That's a real eye-opening way of quantifying just how much of a handicap Belichick is up against year in and year out, thank you for that.

---

And here is a quickly researched list of the Steelers, which is the first team people like to point to as having drafted better than the Patriots while sharing the same level of consistent success.

2014 - 15th
2013 - 17th
2012 - 24th
2011 - 31th
2010 - 18th
2009 - 32th
2008 - 23th
2007 - 15th
2006 - 25th
2005 - 30th
2004 - 11th
2003 - 16th
2002 - 30th
2001 - 19th

The average Drafting Position of the Pittsburgh Steelers comes out to be 21st overall.

If you pick 21st in each round, your first 3 picks are worth 1,400 points.

The value of picking 21st compared to 26th comes out to be 340 points.. the equivalent of the 56th 2nd round pick... every year.

And even to my mind, 21st vs 26th doesn't seem like that big a deal.. but then I look at where the Steelers drafted year by year and it is obviously in a much better average position than the Patriots.

The Ravens, another team compared with the Patriots, have had the following draft picks since 2000 (original pick order, not including trades):

2014 - 17th (CJ Mosely)
2013 - 32nd (Matt Elam)
2012 - 29th (traded back for Courtney Upshaw)
2011 - 27th (Jimmy Smith)
2010 - 25th (traded back for Sergio Kindle)
2009 - 26th (traded up to 23 for Michael Oher)
2008 - 8th (traded back to 18 to get Joe Flacco)
2007 - 29th (Ben Grubbs)
2006 - 13th (traded up one spot to get Haloti Ngata)
2005 - 22nd (Mark Clayton)
2004 - 21st (traded to Pats in 2003 for Kyle Boller)
2003 - 10th (used to pick Terrell Suggs; also traded to get #19 from New England to take Kyle Boller)
2002 - 24 (Ed Reed)
2001 - 31 (Todd Heap)
2000 - 15 (traded up to 10 to get Travis Taylor; also had the #5 pick from Atlanta from a 1999 trade)

The Ravens own starting draft position over those 15 years was 21, the same as the Steelers. During that period they had 2 top 10 picks of their own (and another via trade) and 4 top 15 picks of their own. They had "home run picks" during that period on Terrell Suggs (#10 overall), Haloti Ngata (#12 overall) and Ed Reed (#24 overall), and arguably on Joe Flacco (#18 overall). When the Ravens had a 5 year period from 2009-2013 picking consistently at the end of the round (average draft position 28 during that period) they didn't do nearly as well, including major flubs in 2010 on Sergio Kindle and Terrance Cody. They traded up for Michael Oher in 2009, but he didn't make it to a 2nd contract with the team. They traded back for Courtney Upshaw in 2012, and he doesn't seem particularly special. Jimmy Smith in 2011 is solid but not spectacular, and Matt Elam in 2013 is still a work in progress. The only true "home run" pick in the 20's was Ed Reed in 2002. And then there was that disastrous trade with the Pats in 2013 for Kyle Boller. The Ravens also traded up from 15 to 10 in 2000 for Travis Taylor, who was a bust.
 
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That could be, I've been a bit of a broken record about stating my opinion that the pundits have grossly underestimated the effect of the Patriots drafting so consistently in the worst average position of any team in the NFL for the past 13 years. Namely because it's such an insidious handicap to put your finger on.

I've made this point before, not because I think it's an excuse-all but because I think it has a real and very tangible effect on the Patriots ability to draft.

No other team in the NFL has had such consistent success as the Patriots have had.. none, even the other consistently good teams.

Over 13 years, the Patriots have drafted at an average spot of 26

2014 - 29th
2013 - 29th
2012 - 31th
2011 - 28th
2010 - 22nd
2009 - 26th
2008 - 31st (1st round forfeited)
2007 - 28th
2006 - 21st
2005 - 32nd
2004 - 32nd
2003 - 13th
2002 - 32nd
2001 - 6th

( I know I've made probably made mistakes in the above list, damn trade downs)

If you throw out the Patriots two worst years, it drops their average drafting position down to 28th.

While it doesn't excuse Belichick every mistake.. it certainly indicates to me that Belichick has had to try and draft behind more of a handicap than any other team out there.

And I thank him for that, while acknowledging his dry spells and assigning him his share of blame.. though I'm of the opinion that very few GMs could have done as well as he has -under the same conditions and in the same period of time. No one certainly has been able to duplicate his success.

Let's take Belichick's worst drafting critic and then tell him that he's going to draft in the 25 spot for the next 13 years. Let's see how well he does against his peers. :)

i agree, that was a really bad stretch but people do need to keep in mind that they always pick at the end of every round, with he exception being when they have given things up and moved up because of it, such as getting Mayo for the pick the 49ers used for Staley. I'm not saying that excuses all of the misses but by and large their track record in the first is exceptional, and there's a big difference between picking at the top of each round and the end of it. Imo the NFL has taken their balancing act too far and there should be more of a rotation built in so good teams have a shot at top picks, teams like the browns and Jags and Lions have been stockpiling top young players the Patriots simply don't get a shot at because they are well run and those teams are always failures. After a while that takes a toll but overall the Patriots manage to weather that better than any team in football. belichick is far from perfect at drafting and has had some egregious misses when obvious talent was on the board, but what they are trying to accomplish is much different than what we as fans are doing in looking at players.

All true, but none of this excuses the Patriots from going 2 for 20 when the defense badly needed the help. As Mayo has pointed out a couple of times in this thread, there were other more than viable options.
 
All true, but none of this excuses the Patriots from going 2 for 20 when the defense badly needed the help. As Mayo has pointed out a couple of times in this thread, there were other more than viable options.


I agree, it does provide context regarding the disadvantage they are at on the whole but you can't excuse that many misses. The 2nd biggest problem i have with the discussion of drafting is that it almost always is devoid of context, and looking simply at the first rounders i think the Patriots have done a better job than the Ravens, Belichick's big misses have mostly come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds, IIRC, and to really analyze iot would take copious amounts of work that most don't have the time for. I am obviously in the camp that belichick does a better job drafting than almost all of the NFL if not all of it but I have also had serious questions when he passed on guys like Clay Mathews and LaVonte David, although i can understand David because he was a 4-3 LB when they were primarily 3-4 the fact that they have moved towards a 4-3 makes it look even worse. i will never understand passing on Mathews.

The biggest problem i have with it is the stay at home GM's who always say that Belichick should have taken their guys and act as if they have the same scope of knowledge about the players as well as the understanding of what they are really trying to get done, imo that's crap, I can look at players and have those i do and don't like b ut I'm never going to actually believe that I have even a morsel of the knowledge they have about them.
 
It's not that it was an afterthought. It's that the team drafted lousy on defense.


I disagree.

It simply takes time to acquire the requisite number of good players when you start a total rebuilding. The Pats had to do that starting in the 2008-9 off season, as the SB players grew old, slow and retired.

Sure there have been disappointment along the way. That happens to all teams. How many '5 year rebuilding plans', ever complete successfully, never mind completing in 4 years or so? There are only two players left from those SB clubs, Tom Brady and Vince Wilfork, so the team has replaced some 51 players.

Job well done, is what I would say. It was done without the usual 5-11 losing seasons too; and even included a SB appearance, albeit with an incomplete club particularly on Defense.

Hats off to the Patriots Front Office and Bill Belichick, architect and GM.
 
It's always funny watching people trying to defend those drafts on that side of the ball. Those were unquestionably bad. The "everybody misses" argument is a laugher. Yeah, everybody misses. But not to the tune of 2 hits (one for his special teams ability) out of 20 tries. That's why it took him so long to rebuild the defense.

You can't show me anyone better, though. No, I won't accept your Monday Morning QBing, either.
 
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