The lack of depth at LB really does concern me. Even though I thought Beauharnis was a great pick coming out of Rutgers, the thought of him being the #4 LB at this point is pretty scary. (and yes and I understand Ninko and Jones can also play LB). So I'd love to add both a draft pick (or 2) and FA vet to that mix before camp.
As far as safety goes. I'm 100% behind the concept of LB/S hybrid pick ups, to the point where I'd be OK with Shazer at 29, and even happier with KPL or the others mentioned on day 3. I think that "position" is going to become very important in the coming years.
On the other hand, I'm not so excited about adding any more S's this draft, unless they are very late on day 3. Even though Exum sounds very interesting, I think I'd rather another DB with CB skills as opposed to another S.
I really think we are going to be OK at the other S this season. for the following reasons.
1. You forgot to mention Harmon in your S analysis. I know he's limited by his athletic abilities, but he's got the smarts, the hips, and the anticipation to be a fine S. Maybe he's not going to be an all pro or an impactful one, but a very solid guy. I know some people may hate the analogy, but think about a healthy, young Steve Gregory.
I haven't forgotten about Harmon. I'm fine with McCourty-Ryan as the safety tandem when you want 2 guys with maximal range and coverage ability, and Harmon as a backup to both. That's a decent 3 man rotation. I also assume that Browner will play a hybrid CB/S at times. But I still see the need for at least one more safety, and I'm not yet willing to bet on Chung, Tavon Wilson, or Ebner being that guy.
2. Think about this. If you read the measurables on Nate Ebner coming out of college, and added 2 years of actual playing experience at the S position, wouldn't you have him as one of your top S picks. That's where Ebner is right now.
I think we forgot that, while being a core ST'er, Ebner has the kind of size and speed we are looking for in this draft Ebner logged a 4.55 40-yard dash, 4.04 shuttle and 6.50 three-cone drill coming out of college. These are all good numbers for a 6'1 210 S. A guy who just maybe might be ready to actually play in the regular defense this year.
I haven't forgotten that, and I've made that argument many times. I had hopes for Ebner developing as a SS, and have noted that he had almost identical size and athleticism to Kenny Vacarro. However, after getting some early safety reps by necessity in 2012, Ebner really didn't get on the field last year other than in his core ST capacity. I haven't given up hope, but I'm not willing to bank on his developing into more at this point. If it happens, it's a huge bonus.
3. I'm not ready to give up on Tavon Wilson yet either. I thought he had a great rookie year, even with his mistakes. I have no idea why he slipped so badly his sophomore season. But I know bad seasons happen, and to write him off so quickly would be bad management by the Pats. Granted I have low expectations, but he has shown some talent, and I think he's more worth a shot than a 4-7th round pick who isn't going to be better athletically. Don't forget that he has gotten 5 picks over the last 2 years in very limited playing time.
I haven't given up on Wilson, but I'm not willing to bet anything on him developing at this point, either.
4. Pat Chung - What can i say. Chung was a guy who had a solid 2010 season with almost 100 tackles. He was a guy who's injury plague 2011 season ended up with him being the best DB the Pats had right through the playoffs and superbowl. He was the guy who many "experts" thought would be a "breakout player" in 2012. So we aren't talking about a guy who has no talent here.
Inexplicably in 2012 Chung imploded and moved on to having another bad season with the Eagles. Yet again at 26, Chung is young and cheap enough to easily be worth the risk that Pats took on him, and ANOTHER reason why drafting a low round S would really be redundant. If you aren't going to take one of the top S's, a guy who is a better athlete than what you already have, then don't waste the pick. What you can get 4th to 7th, you already have here.
Again, I'm fine giving Chung a chance, but I'm not willing to bet on him. The Chung of 2009-2010 would be a good addition. But Chung has regressed for 3 years, and he flat out stunk in 2012 with us, and last year with Philly. Abysmal. His contract reflects that the Pats aren't counting on him as anything more than roster competition at this point. If he can find his old form, fine, but I'm not willing to bet a rusty nickel on that.
Summary-
Where we agree - Get me more top end DL talent early - Get one of the top 4 TE's - add a hybrid LB/S type - add a speed LB type - Find the future starting C
Where we disagree - I think adding S help in this draft is a waste of a pick. Whoever we can get there isn't going to be any better athletically than what we already have. You think otherwise.
It won't bother me if we picked an Exum-type even in the 4th. He's an intriguing athlete. I just don't see the point.