Mallett's Market Value

[BelichickFan]

Good to hear but it won't be their first. If they could get Houston's 2nd I would take it in a heartbeat.

That's the point; trading #33 for Mallett frees up the Titans to take Clowney, trade down, or take whoever they happen to like. As long as O'Brien likes Mallett he gets his QB and it frees them up to go in another direction.

It's the perfect situation - IF O'Brien likes Mallett.

 

[Sfpat]

That's the point; trading #33 for Mallett frees up the Titans to take Clowney, trade down, or take whoever they happen to like. As long as O'Brien likes Mallett he gets his QB and it frees them up to go in another direction.

It's the perfect situation - IF O'Brien likes Mallett.

What if O'Brien traded for........Brady? Would the #1 pick straight up do it?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

What if O'Brien traded for........Brady? Would the #1 pick straight up do it?

I'm going to assume that this isn't sarcasm.

Given that trading Brady would result in about a $20M dead money hit, the Texans would have to give up about five first-rounders, if not more.

 

[rookBoston]

Mallett is an affordable player and experienced in the system. The replacement cost for Mallett right now is very high, and the risk that you just cant replace him on the 53-man is very high. The team building philosophy is all about depth at every position, including QB2. Giving the backup job to a rookie draft pick, or a street free agent, is not something BB is going to do casually, and not without pretty compelling motivation... early 2nd, late 1st... plus another backup on the roster that gives him confidence.

Would Houston or Cleveland give up an early 2nd? I doubt it. But who knows what Lombardi or O'Brien really thinks about Mallett. Pointless speculating.

If I'm BB, I spend a 3rd round pick on a QB in the draft. Bring the rookie and Mallett and Brady into camp. Be sure to feature Mallett extensively during the preseason games...

(1) If Mallett sucks in preseason, and so does the rookie... well then, Mallett continues as the #2 for one last year, and we'll see a parade of UDFA QBs come through Foxboro. Try to find a nugget of gold somewhere in that mound for the future.

(2) If Mallett sucks in preseason, but the rookie shows real promise, carry both of them on the roster while you try to pawn Mallett off on Oakland for a bag of chips... whatever you can get. Probably, he walks as a FA. Maybe we get a compensatory pick on the back-end if we're lucky. But at least the future seems secure.

(3) If Mallett looks the part but the rookie looks unready. Put the rookie on the PS and continue as is with Mallett as #2. No harm done, but no interest in trading Mallett even if someone steps up with an offer.

(4) If Mallett looks great in preseason, and the rookie does too, then not only will the trade market blossom, but BB might actually feel secure enough with a Plan B for his QB2 to actually pull the trigger on a deal.

This last is the ONLY scenario where I can imagine BB doing a deal that trades Mallett away before the end of his rookie contract. All the rest, either there's no market for Mallett or we're not interested in trading him.

 

[meatface]

Mallett is an affordable player and experienced in the system. The replacement cost for Mallett right now is very high, and the risk that you just cant replace him on the 53-man is very high. The team building philosophy is all about depth at every position, including QB2. Giving the backup job to a rookie draft pick, or a street free agent, is not something BB is going to do casually, and not without pretty compelling motivation... early 2nd, late 1st... plus another backup on the roster that gives him confidence.

Would Houston or Cleveland give up an early 2nd? I doubt it. But who knows what Lombardi or O'Brien really thinks about Mallett. Pointless speculating.

If I'm BB, I spend a 3rd round pick on a QB in the draft. Bring the rookie and Mallett and Brady into camp. Be sure to feature Mallett extensively during the preseason games...

(1) If Mallett sucks in preseason, and so does the rookie... well then, Mallett continues as the #2 for one last year, and we'll see a parade of UDFA QBs come through Foxboro. Try to find a nugget of gold somewhere in that mound for the future.

(2) If Mallett sucks in preseason, but the rookie shows real promise, carry both of them on the roster while you try to pawn Mallett off on Oakland for a bag of chips... whatever you can get. Probably, he walks as a FA. Maybe we get a compensatory pick on the back-end if we're lucky. But at least the future seems secure.

(3) If Mallett looks the part but the rookie looks unready. Put the rookie on the PS and continue as is with Mallett as #2. No harm done, but no interest in trading Mallett even if someone steps up with an offer.

(4) If Mallett looks great in preseason, and the rookie does too, then not only will the trade market blossom, but BB might actually feel secure enough with a Plan B for his QB2 to actually pull the trigger on a deal.

This last is the ONLY scenario where I can imagine BB doing a deal that trades Mallett away before the end of his rookie contract. All the rest, either there's no market for Mallett or we're not interested in trading him.

You arent going to be able to get a 3rd round QB pick onto the practice squad. He would have to clear waivers first and somebody would likely grab him. The Pats have to trade Mallet before/around the draft or he wont be moved at all. Nobody is going to trade for a QB with no familiarity with their system when they could just sign a guy to hold a clipboard unless he blows everybody away in preseason. Mallet just hasnt been able to do anything in his time in NE, the Pats could not get anything for Hoyer and he played a lot more than Mallet has.

 

[rookBoston]

Mallet just hasnt been able to do anything in his time in NE, the Pats could not get anything for Hoyer and he played a lot more than Mallet has.

Well, Hoyer was not as highly regarded as Mallett coming out of college. And the concerns that caused Mallett to drop in the draft, around his intangibles and ego, have been largely answered just by the fact that BB has put up with him for three years.

The Pats have to trade Mallet before/around the draft or he wont be moved at all. Nobody is going to trade for a QB with no familiarity with their system when they could just sign a guy to hold a clipboard unless he blows everybody away in preseason.

Hm. If you believe that, then Belichick just isn't going to trade Mallett. What made Hoyer expendable from our side is the fact that Mallett was already on the roster. With no one else on the roster right now that is experienced in the system... I don't see the basis for a trade. Houston would have to make BB an offer he absolutely cannot refuse to make it remotely plausible... and here I'm thinking compensation more like what we got for Bledsoe (mid 1st rounder = Ty Warren, IIRC).

For that to happen O'Brien would need to be REALLY high on him, see him as a Week One starter, and pretty skeptical about the alternatives (Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles...). A deal like 2014 2nd rounder (#33) + 2015 2nd?

But I don't agree that the deal would have to happen before/around the draft. Starters go onto IR in preseason, veterans retire or are released, cap space becomes available and young players who teams were counting on to solve problems look terrible in camp. Most of the Hoyer trade talk started around Draft time, but was still bubbling all through preseason. The Pats didn't release him until September, hoping the entire time to find some team willing to make a deal.

I spent the morning perusing the Houston fan site, to see what they're saying about idea of trading for Mallett. Sentiment is mixed. Some would rather take a chance with one of the top rated rookie QB prospects. Some think Mallett would be a safer choice a better approach to building the team. The idea of sending a 2nd rounder to the Pats for a highly regarded college QB who's been stuck behind Brady is storyline that most Texans fans could accept. And the idea that they could take Clowney #1 overall to pair with JJ on the DL, and still get a young starting QB that has upside, is pretty seductive.

The fact that Brian Hoyer played so well for the Browns last year helps make a Mallett trade more attractive to Houston fans.

I was amused, more than a few Texans fans were concerned about getting duped by Belichick in any trade. Why would Belichick trade Mallett if he was any good? Also: We only want to trade for Mallett if Belichick is unwilling to trade him... which is superbly circular logic, but precisely the kind of crazy thinking that results in a GM offering way more than he really should. With a few "No, he's not available" responses from Foxboro, maybe Houston steps up and offers up their 1st rounder in 2015. Well, I'm sure BB would take that phone call. And after inking the deal, make a quick call to bring Matt Cassell back from Minnesota for a 6th.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Warning - this is the International Business Times (?!?!?!). That said, it's the first report I've seen which puts substance behind the Mallett to Texans discussions: link.

The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots are reportedly in talk on a possible trade that would send Pats backup quarterback Ryan Mallet to the Texans, a source close to situation reported on Tuesday.

The Texans, who owns the top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, are considering to send a second round pick to the Pats in exchange for the 6-for-6 Mallet, who was a third round pick in the 2011 Draft.

 

[manxman2601]

Warning - this is the International Business Times (?!?!?!). That said, it's the first report I've seen which puts substance behind the Mallett to Texans discussions: link.

A fast growing but young online media company - they bought out Newsweek in 2013.

I'd have a bit more confidence in their professionalism if they could write in English though.

 

[ZoisKing]

Looks to me like they are quoting Gil Brandt.

 

[Ivan]

What if O'Brien traded for........Brady? Would the #1 pick straight up do it?

lmao.......................

 

[PattieswinSB]

3rd rounder IMO

 

[dryheat44]

I just don't get it. I didn't get it last year, and I still don't get it. Whichever GM offers a first or second round pick for Mallett needs to have the keys to the organization taken away from him.

Cassel won 11 games, playing very well in the process, and he AND Vrabel got the 34th pick from Pioli. In hindsight, it was a poor decision, and Pioli got the keys taken away from him. But at least that was defensible based on watching Cassel excel with live bullets.

Mallett was a third round pick. Since then Mallett has won 0 games. He hasn't played in a meaningful football game in years. So now he's worth MORE than his original draft slot? Based on what? Staying out of trouble? Not falling asleep in meetings? Spoiler alert: Watching Brady practice does not turn one into Brady. The whole idea of "He's been learning from the best for three years" doesn't mean Jack.

Might a GM who loved Mallett in the draft (although apparently not enough to have a 1st or 2nd round grade on him) offer Belichick a 5th for him? Sure. At that point would Belichick take that trade? Doubtful.

The most likely scenario is that Mallett plays out his contract here, and unless Brady decides to retire after 2014, leaves as a free agent.

 

[BelichickFan]

Mallett was a third round pick. Since then Mallett has won 0 games. He hasn't played in a meaningful football game in years. So now he's worth MORE than his original draft slot? Based on what? Staying out of trouble? Not falling asleep in meetings?

He's worth more now because he was worth more then but fell due to gossip, rumor and innuendo - that may have been true back then but simply hasn't played out. The Bengals almost took him at the start of the second round but Jay Gruden wanted Dalton. The fact that Ponder went ahead of Mallett had nothing to do with talent and all to do with worries about personality and behavior.

After the top 4 or so QB (Bridgewater, Johnny, Bortles, Carr) I would take Mallett over the likes of McCarron or Mettenberger but NFL teams always like the new "pretty young thing" so they'll probably draft someone instead.

 

[dryheat44]

He's worth more now because he was worth more then but fell due to gossip, rumor and innuendo - that may have been true back then but simply hasn't played out. The Bengals almost took him at the start of the second round but Jay Gruden wanted Dalton. The fact that Ponder went ahead of Mallett had nothing to do with talent and all to do with worries about personality and behavior.

After the top 4 or so QB (Bridgewater, Johnny, Bortles, Carr) I would take Mallett over the likes of McCarron or Mettenberger but NFL teams always like the new "pretty young thing" so they'll probably draft someone instead.

That's the common narrative amongst Pats fans, and it was true to some extent on draft day. But the whole "Mallett is the best QB in the draft" line of thought is owed entirely to Chris Mortenson. Everybody else who said it got it at some point from Mortenson. Ryan Mallett's backup QB at Arkansas happened to be a low-level prospect named Alex Mortenson, so I think Big Mort got enamored with the kid he saw practice and play frequently.

The fact is that every team that was in the QB market sat down with Mallett at the Combine and in subsequent visits before the draft. Combined with his workouts and any white board work, whatever came out in those interviews informed those teams that he wasn't worth a pick in the first three rounds. With the understanding that some, if not most, of those teams have a new management structure in place, it still remains that they don't have a file that they compiled on him, positive or negative, so why trade a valued asset for an unknown who hasn't played? Why would anybody trade a second round pick for Mallett over drafting a guy like McCarron, who's started 30-odd games against great competition the last three years? Arm strength? What's Jemarcus Russell doing these days? Kyle Boller?

My main issue, and you didn't make it here, is the commonly-held contention that Mallett "is a first round talent that fell to the third, but is now worth a first (last year) or second (this year) round pick in trade."

He was not a first round talent. He was a third round talent. If all those teams evaluated Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbart, and Andy Dalton, as being more worthy of a high pick than Mallett, there's your answer. Nobody uses a top 12 pick on a quarterback on a player on "intangibles".

To flip the exercise, if Brady and Mallett retired after next season, would you want Belichick to spent a first or second round pick on a guy like Brock Osweiler?

 

[BrickPat]

Remember the thread about how Brian Hoyer was easily worth a 2nd rounder?

rinse-lather-repeat

 

[BelichickFan]

He was not a first round talent. He was a third round talent. If all those teams evaluated Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbart, and Andy Dalton, as being more worthy of a high pick than Mallett, there's your answer. Nobody uses a top 12 pick on a quarterback on a player on "intangibles".

Minnestota did. That's all Ponder brought to the table. Average at best physically and great intangibles. Same with Dalton except he was drafted later. But he wasn't a third round talent. He was a third round pick due to serious off field concerns that haven't played out.

To flip the exercise, if Brady and Mallett retired after next season, would you want Belichick to spent a first or second round pick on a guy like Brock Osweiler?

I never saw Osweiler play much. But I will say this - if Brady were to announce he's had enough, bought his own island with Giselle never to be seen again, I would be perfectly happy going forward with Mallett. I would prefer to go foward with Mallett over any QB in this draft other than the 4 I previously named.

 

[BelichickFan]

Remember the thread about how Brian Hoyer was easily worth a 2nd rounder?

rinse-lather-repeat

Mallett and Hoyer are polar opposites. Mallett has a beastly arm, touch issues and previous character issues. Hoyer has a pop gun arm, good accuracy and tough and great character.

Other than that these situations are remarkably similar.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Three thoughts.

1. Matt Cassel only got a second because he was guaranteed $14.6M.

2. We still really have no idea what he's capable of. We've never really seen him running with the first team.

3. Players sometimes drop in the draft for no good reason at all. Why on earth did Marques Colston drop to the seventh round?

 

[dryheat44]

Three thoughts.

1. Matt Cassel only got a second because he was guaranteed $14.6M.

2. We still really have no idea what he's capable of. We've never really seen him running with the first team.

3. Players sometimes drop in the draft for no good reason at all. Why on earth did Marques Colston drop to the seventh round?

Marques Colston, however, has had a very good career. He has proved that he was better than his 7th round draft status, which owed to his playing at a Division 1-AA school.

Ryan Mallett has done nothing to show that he was drafted too late.

If I'm a GM, I feel much more comfortable drafting or signing a free agent QB that I can work out and grill on my offense than to trade a first or second day pick on a three year veteran with next to no playing time that I can't interview, can't work out, and can't determine whether or not he can execute the offense.

Maybe Bill O'Brien saw enough during practice during Mallett's rookie year to become convinced that he is the man for his offense. But he still can't offer a second round pick for him, even if he did have that authority over personnel, which I don't believe he does. That would be incredibly irresponsible for a rebuilding franchise. Furthermore, the Texans are trying to upgrade on Schaub/Keenum. There's no objective reason to believe that Mallett is such an upgrade.

 

[dryheat44]

I never saw Osweiler play much. But I will say this - if Brady were to announce he's had enough, bought his own island with Giselle never to be seen again, I would be perfectly happy going forward with Mallett. I would prefer to go foward with Mallett over any QB in this draft other than the 4 I previously named.

Of course you would...Mallett's been practicing with the team for 3 years. But that wasn't the question. I asked whether if Brady AND Mallett retired after next year, would you want Belichick to spend a first or second round pick on Brock Osweiller.

Assuming you said no, which you should've, why not? Osweiller was a second round pick, he's had virtually no playing time, and he's been watching Peyton Manning for two years. If a Bronco fan suggested they could get a second round pick for Osweiller, we'd laugh at him or her. But it's a parallel situation -- unless one wants to claim that Osweiller was a gross reach, and Mallett was an equally ridiculous faller. I would rather Belichick spend a second round pick on a rookie quarterback that he and McDaniels could work out, watch film with, ask him questions, ask his college coaches questions, and evaluate his character than trade the pick for Osweiller, site unseen.