Patriots vs Bengals Post-Game Thread

[PatriotSeven]

I like how rather than let people vent the "real fan" police show up.

Well when you have a whole bunch of bipolar fans who think we should move on from Brady, Belichick and McDaniels because their team is now only 4-1, despite being depleted....

...I call it community service to come in and help them calm down, telling them it's going to be ok, and try to keep them from throwing themselves off the ledge. Unless they're too far over...then I think it's a duty to just give them a little push and be done with it.

Can't save everyone.

PS: I don't even understand why the overreaction. I'm practically the only person on this forum that even believed we had a chance to be perfect. If anyone, I should be the one that's most pissed. I blame all you guys for not believing. It's ALL YOUR FAULT!

 

[QuantumMechanic]

That makes no sense.
If you kick the FG you give yourself a chance to win the game.
If you go for it and do not get it, you lose.

You are making exactly the same mistake I talked about. You are confusing "maximizing the chance of postponing losing" with "maximizing the chance of winning". Those are not the same thing.

You're right -- if you go for the TD there and don't make it, it's game over. But that does NOT mean that kicking the FG gives you the best chance of winning the game.

Here's an simple example to make it clear. And of course the numbers aren't as extreme in real life. Let's say at the moment in time they had to decide between going for the TD or kicking the FG they had a 50% chance of making the TD, a 100% chance of making the FG and they figured that given how crap the offense was playing that when they had their next possession they had a 20% chance of scoring a TD and a 60% chance of scoring a FG.

If they go for the FG:
100% of the time they get it, then 20% of the time after that they get the subsequent TD = 20% chance of forcing the game to OT (and so they lose 80% of the time)

If they go for the TD:
50% of the time they don't get it, and thus lose.
50% of the time they get it, then 60% of the time after that they get a FG which means that 30% of the time they force OT. And 20% of the time after that they get a TD which means 10% of the time they outright win.

Summing up:
* If they kick the FG they never lose the game at that moment, but they only force OT 20% of the time.
* If they go for the TD they lose the game at that moment 50% of the time, but they force OT 30% of the time and win outright 10% of the time.

Again, maximizing your chance to postpone losing (which is what kicking the FG does) is not the same as maximizing your chance to win, which this example clearly illustrates.

Now obviously how things work out depend on the exact numbers you figure applies to your situation. But it does show that a blanket statement of "you have to go for the FG there" is clearly wrong.

 

[patsfanboy]

Can't we all be like the pats and DROP the subject? I don't know if you people notice but the inconsistency and drops have been happening since day 1, don't be bring it out today like you just find out because we lost.

 

[SVN]

Did watch or follow the game this week but I dont feel that bad about the loss yet. Seems like it was one of those games when nothing worked like the game in miami a few yrs ago where brady had 72 yards passing(Was stuck in St george running a marathon so maybe its the endorphins or hallucinations speaking ). Defense did its job looks like which is going to serve this team well. We usually have a clunker during the season so hopefully this is it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Your logic only works if the Pats convert to get the TD there. What happens if they don't get the TD there?

You're extrapolating by knowing the future. Would you still be happy with going it on 4th down and not converting? Remember... you don't know that Mayo is going to recover a fumble in CIN territory.

I'm not assuming anything. I realize that there was a 20-30% chance that they don't convert there. Even accounting for that, it's still yhr right call to go for it. That's the entire point. Yes, if the pats fail to score from the 2 then the game is over. But you're completely missing the point. You're accusing me of assuming the best case ( which I'm not) and responding by assuming the worst.

The reality of what happened supports my case. 4th&G from the 2 is the buddy chance we had to get the TD that we needed. Stats support my case as well. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision both in hindsight and in foresight.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Hmm. NFL.com headline: "Bengals dominate Patriots." Not so sure about that.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That makes no sense.
If you kick the FG you give yourself a chance to win the game.
If you go for it and do not get it, you lose.

So you prefer having a theoretical chance of winning for as long as possible over actually maximizing your chances to win. You're wrong, but duly noted.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Offense still work in progress. We need to get healthy. If we can get to 6-2 by midseason. We still have a great shot.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: The current state of the 53 man roster…

You can give me grief for this post but let’s not kid ourselves here – this post is a fail.

Fixed for accuracy.

 

[goheels22002]

Tommy Kelly not speaking with reporters but says everything with his knee are fine. Sounds like the team dodged a bullet

Report on the radio said he walked out of the locker room under his own power, no limp, no crutches. I hope it's okay and a brace and strengthening gives enough stability to keep playing.

 

[Ozymandias]

Re: The current state of the 53 man roster…

Like with most teams, the bottom of the roster is weak.

 

[PatriotSeven]

So you prefer having a theoretical chance of winning for as long as possible over actually maximizing your chances to win. You're wrong, but duly noted.

Those probabilities are great for generically assessing the league as a whole over a long period of time.

Please plug in the numbers for a team with one of the WORST red zone offenses in the league, and our personnel, which is missing TEs, and precise route running, which are IMPERATIVE in short goal line situations, the lackof a running game against this team, then figure out those probabilities again.

We've actually had a better chance of scoring a TD from outside the redzone. We have speed, and receivers who can blow past their men over long distances, versus precise passing in short distance situations, where TEs, and our old offense would have been more suitable. We're missing the latter.

You can't ignore how putrid this team has been in the red zone, and the personnel issues we are having, and apply your generic probability stats to it.

 

[Joker]

1 for 12 on 3rd downs..on the road....WTF did you expect, a 21 point blowout win?

 

[Nehalem]

Re: The current state of the 53 man roster…

The why are they still on this roster:

• Chris Jones
• Matthew Mulligan
• Ja’Gared Davis
• Kanorris Davis
• Chris Barker
• James Develin
• Chris White

Because he had 1.5 sacks today?

Because assuming Kelly is injured we probably need more than Vellano at DT?

 

[RobAllan]

Offense still work in progress. We need to get healthy. If we can get to 6-2 by midseason. We still have a great shot.

Weird- I had a post go MIA.

I agree with this and also think if we even hit 5-3, we've got a good chance. Will want the tiebreaker with the Dolphins in that type of scenario in case a footrace ensues.

Then hopefully the offense will start clicking enough to make a real run of it.

We're certainly not out of it.

 

[Ivan]

I wish some of the bandwagon Johnny-come-latelies would go root for the red sox and give up football.

Agree completely, although i have no doubt they would complain that the Red Sox are only 2 up.

 

[chasa]

this is one of those games where ill probably take the week off the forums just so i dont have to deal with an entire week of chicken little nonsense.

 

[Ivan]

There's venting, and then there's outright stupidity.

There's a difference between saying "X sucked today" and "Cut X."

Yep. I can see being critical of the OL and the drops but the crap about what a failure Belichick is when he is the greatest coach of the era, and about Brady being done when he is simply trying to deal with the handicaps to his current offense is complete and total garbage and should be called out as such.

 

[Joker]

some of these "Pats fans" are morons from J.I., Ivan

don't forget that....that idiot McGimpley is here along with the SenileGump and other green haters...

 

[Deus Irae]

There's venting, and then there's outright stupidity...

Most of what's written at either extreme is stupidity, yet the 'real fan' people never call out their own idiocies.